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On Murillo at 16/1 for this so really hoping he does the business at Newbury this afternoon. Ground is in his favour and I’ll be mightily disapointed should he not come out on top.
Absolutely diabolical from Murillo today, a far cry from the horse who ran so well in last year’s Coventry.
I think that’s a bit harsh Charles. It was an absolute mess of a race tactically, and I thought SDS caught them all napping on the winner, with a brilliant, positive ride.
Murillo is probably nothing special, and the Coventry form of last year hasn’t really amounted to much so I wouldn’t even say his 3rd there means an awful lot, but I think if today’s race was ran again he would have finished a lot closer.
Eqtidaar and Murillo were the two best horses in the race today in my opinion, and if Crowley had got his fractions right on the former he would have won.
Sioux Nation did himself no harm today. Some 8s about but not much.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!The fillies look out of it. Heartache was a huge bust and Different League was beaten again. The thing with the O’Brien filly is that it’s three runs this season that are about a stone and more behind her best form last year.
Sands Of Mali was gutsy again in the Sandy Lane and Richard Fahey said it would be ideal if something would go off like a scalded cat and tow him into the race.
Generally about 8/1 now for Fahey’s sprinter and connections seem to feel their is more to come from him. Unfortunately was the friendless and disappointing horse in the Sandy Lane.
Invincible Army is a grand and consistent sort who has met good company along the way. He was a short head second to Guineas favourite Masar at Goodwood on debut and his flaw is being second when I back him
Three wins and five seconds in nine starts, his worst placing was 4th to Cardsharp in the July Stakes, where US Navy Flag was second and the Coventry winner just pipped him for third.Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Equilateral 6/1.
Unfortunately missed out on the 50/1 Ben has, but I am more than happy to get involved at this price. You couldn’t but be impressed by the way he hacked up at at Doncaster, and the second has come out since and won a handicap off of 80.
Loving ours getting smashed in Voleur always nice when the 2nd horse wins a handicap off a decent mark. Fingers crossed for the big day :D :D
Just wish I’d got more on it haha but it’s a game of greed and we have to block that bit out! Not long to wait now :D
Equilateral shortening all the time, must be keeping up with Battaash on the gallops!
4s in places now for the best sprinter since usain bolt! Probably better than Battaash ;)
Shocker of a price in a very competitive race, anyone taking that proce is mad IMO.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Equilateral fans may want to check out York at the weekend for encouragement.
Foxtrot Lady was second, albeit 8 lengths in arrears, to Equilateral at Doncaster but after a slightly frustrating run of places she found her mojo next time and broke her duck. Foxtrot Lady followed up next time and is favourite for the Pavers Foundation Sprint Handicap at York on Saturday, generally 7/1 off her new handicap mark of 94.
In the Doncaster race, the Racing Post gave 105 for Equilateral but in doing so they awarded Foxtrot Lady 67, which was 16 lbs below her official rating of 83. The official handicapper only dropped her 3 lbs on to a mark of 80, which she took advantage of and earned a new rating of 87 and then went in again to rise to 94. It begs the question as to whether Foxtrot Lady actually ran as poorly as the Racing Post rating suggests behind Equilateral?
The Racing Post sequence of ratings for Foxtrot Lady sees her last four starts rated 75, 67, 91 and 100. The Doncaster rating looks like an outlier in a clear trend of good improvement. That leads me to wonder what mark they would give Equilateral if we were to say Foxtrot Lady ran to a mark of 80, which is a very fair figure to draw from the path from 75 to 100 over four races. You could argue a bit more might actually be due but even the conservative figure of 80 makes Equilateral at least a 115 horse if the logic is true.
Equilateral has an official mark of 105 and if that is as good as he is, he is an appalling bet at his current odds. When looking at the other market leaders we find the following official ratings:-
Sioux Nation 114
Sands Of Mali 116
Invincible Army 112
Expert Eye 111
Fleet Review 111
Laugh A Minute 101
Eqtidaar 107
Heartache 110
Different League 102
Raid 108So if Equilateral is only 105 he has a few ahead of him and needs at least 10 lbs improvement but it wouldn’t be out of the question that he’s actually better than the 105 already and also has more scope than most in the field.
Several here may go to the Jersey Stakes instead and it’s not really a stellar standard with Sands Of Mali top rated but not spectacular since his taking Gimcrack win.
I highly respect Equilateral and although not a big fan of Charlie Hills, he seems to do well with the straight forward point and shoot sprinters.
Heartache and Different League have both failed to inspire this season and you would have to question the 110 rating of the latter on the evidence of her seasonal debut.
My bet on Heartache is as good as goosed, but I have a bet from just after the Gimcrack on Sands Of Mali. I dare say Richard Fahey will hope something goes off like a bat out of hell to give Sands Of Mali a lead but although I thought he was some value early doors it isn’t the case now, at half the earlier odds of 16/1. Similar comments apply to the consistent Invincible Army even if 5th home in the Sandy Lane (Actress) landed a Group 3 at the Curragh next time.
Sioux Nation is an obvious contender but I just wonder about the strength of his form and it looked at times last season that he was a short runner at 6F and to my eye the others were coming back on him in the closing stages of his latest start, after Sioux Nation initially looked like he would clear away after taking it up. I thought he was a bit of value early on but at 7/2 in a place now, there is no value to my eyes.
I’ll play Equilateral as my main bet now at 5/1 and leave Sands Of Mali from last year as my save now. I’d be astonished if Heartache could bounce back and land this.
Equilateral looks a very speedy sort and he could have won more than ten lengths last time :-
http://www.attheraces.com/atrplayer-replay-popup/VOD/1036986
In a race where it’s tricky to spot a star amongst the more exposed sorts, I’ll put a pen through Equilateral’s second run in the belief that he’ll be thereabout’s as is and the winner if there’s improvement to come.
Best of luck to those on him at big odds. I’ll settle for 5/1.
Equilateral 5/1
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I absolutely agree with Jack here.
He was impressive last time but 4/1 for this?!? Crazy imo.
I don’t think Foxtrot Lady should be rated as running to anything like 80, as if she had I doubt the distances between her and the third and fourth, Miracle Works and Warton would’ve been as little as 2 1/2 and 2 1/2 lengths. However, I do agree with you that the probability is she ran to better than 67. Not that Equilateral needs it to be much better than 67; having given the filly 12 lbs and an 8 lengths beating… And if the jockey had wanted it could’ve been quite a bit more than 8.
Considering what the Commonwealth Cup has shown us since its inception, this looks overall a poor running. Those seemingly with the best form, Sands Of Mali, Invincible Army look fairly exposed – not up to winning an average renewal. However, if the winner is up to previous renewals it’s more likely to be an improver. I have a healthy respect for Sioux Nation; but given the progression shown at Doncaster Equilateral looks the most likely to improve in to an average Commonwealth Cup winner.
I’ve followed you in and taken the 5/1, Steve.
Value Is EverythingThat’s what I like to read!! Great write up Steve all aboard the Equilateral train!!! Choooo choooo to the bank
Three wins and five seconds in nine starts, his worst placing was 4th to Cardsharp in the July Stakes, where US Navy Flag was second and the Coventry winner just pipped him for third.
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