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Could be an informative race this evening as without parole is odds on fav at Sandown and a general 6-1 shot for the st James palace. Does anyone know if elarquam (the Johnston Frankel horse if I’ve misspelt the name) is likely to go for this after the Irish Guineas? If Johnston doesn’t have this race in mind I may well get on without parole at 6-1 for this incase it romps home later.
I advised and took 25/1 about U S Navy Flag this time last week and am now just hoping he runs at least well enough today to warrant connections aiming here rather than the Commonwealth Cup.
I was at Sandown Thursday night and physically he looked well, even if he did get a bit warm in the build up. I wasn’t overly impressed with him and the proximity of Vintage and Gabr would worry me if I was already on him for this.
That seemed a good enough effort from U S Navy Flag to warrant running on the Tuesday rather than the Friday.
Romanised looked nifty though and Betway are going 20/1 at the moment and have had a bet on that, he’ll surely start no bigger than half that on the day and where else is there to go?
I think that Hey Gaman at 16/1 isn’t without a bit of a shout here. It depends
on how he comes out of yesterday’s race, the Prix Du Jockey Club, where he did well considering
he had a poor draw out in 13. He came out of the stalls very smartly, as he always does, but had
to burn up a fair bit to get over towards the rail where he led early on. He still was well there
going into the final furlong, but paid for the early effort. Nonetheless he was within 3L of the
winner. As I mentioned on that thread, he’s a horse that takes his races well, he ran 4 times in 6
weeks last July/August and won 3 of them, so as long as there are no problems I think he will probably
take this in. I’ve chanced him with Betvictor, if he does turn up on the day I reckon he will be half
those odds.I’m on Without Parole antepost for this.
Had him NRNB for the Guineas. Surely goes well here when getting better ground than he got at Sandown.
should Without Parole be fav for this? Just a question I am throwing out there, we have a 2000gns runner up(Tip Two Win), Romanised the Irish 2000 winner, the Ballydoyle options. Oh and my fancy Gabr (EW) who was only beaten 3/4L on his reappearance by the fav. Ok the ground may not have suited Without Parole, but it may also of been against Gabr. Really looking forward to this race.
Can anyone put me off trying to get the fav beat ?
“U S Navy Flag is going to run here which is cracking news.
Best price 6/1.”
Like Spirit of Valor in hindsight last year, USNF looks tailor-made for the Jersey over 7f. I don’t understand their relentless ambition to make a miler out of him, especially given the suicidal rides he’s received on both occasions.
Who am I to question team Ballydoyle though, and I’m sure they’ll make a fool out of me yet.
Wootton did everything wrong in the French Guineas and I’ve happy to give him another chance at 12s. Better ground won’t harm him either, looks to have lots of pace.
Not 100% to turn up but latest dialogue is that they’re very much looking towards here so I’ve taken the chance.
Stats up to 2017 (not including Barney Roy)
15/15 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
14/15 – Previous Group 1 or 2 winners
13/15 – Had either 2 or 3 previous runs that season
13/15 – Favourites that were placed
12/15 – Had won over a mile before
12/15 – Previous Group 1 winners
10/15 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
10/15 – Returned 11/4 or shorter in the betting
9/15 – Won their previous race
9/15 – Ran in the Irish 2000 Guineas (Curragh) last time out (7 won it)
5/15 – Had run at Ascot before
5/15 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien
No winner from stall 1 or 2 in the last 9 runnings
5 of the last 9 winners came from stalls 4 or 5
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 3/1As I see their fair prices:
Without Parole 3/1, Romanised 5/1, Tip Two Win 6/1, US Navy Flag 15/2, Wooton 15/2, Gabr 14/1, Gustav Klimt 14/1, Hey Garman 28/1, Key Victory 40/1, Threeandfourpence 100/1, Glorious Journey 500/1, Kings Shield 500/1, Full Moon 800/1, Kenya 2000/1.
Value Is EverythingShould Without Parole be fav for this? Just a question I am throwing out there, we have a 2000gns runner up(Tip Two Win), Romanised the Irish 2000 winner, the Ballydoyle options. Oh and my fancy Gabr (EW) who was only beaten 3/4L on his reappearance by the fav. Ok the ground may not have suited Without Parole, but it may also of been against Gabr. Really looking forward to this race.
Can anyone put me off trying to get the fav beat ?
Thought I would be making Tip Two Win my bet, but Roger Teal was in form at Guineas time and (although harder to judge with a small trainer) I have doubts about his current form going in to Royal Ascot week. Ballydoyle don’t have a real top class miling three year old now Saxon Warrior remains at middle distances. Gustav Klimt disappointing since reappearance and US Navy Flag beaten fair and square in Ireland. Although clearly the latter thrives on racing and just a chance he’ll step up again on that. I understand points made about 7f might suit better, but he’s still Coolmore’s best chance of winning this Group 1 at a mile. I’ve backed Romanised and – to me – his form looks the best and no fluke about it. Just a slight doubt in my mind his trainer will be able to reproduce that form away from his back yard. 8/1 and now 6/1 worth taking. However, even the best of these Group 1 three year old milers doesn’t look up to previous years. So if there is one capable of putting up a performance up to an average renewal it’ll probably be an up-and-comer… And the obvious one is Without Parole – especially judged on his penultimate effort.
Last time out connections wanted to give Without Parole more experience before stepping up to this Group 1 company… And he’d suffered a setback. Only way they could fit the needed experience in was to run with the horse not at peak fitness and on ground connections believed did not suit. Race times suggest it softer than the official “good” and his action seems to go some way in confirming those beliefs. ie Without Parole will certainly need to be better than shown so far, but there are valid reasons to believe he is better. You’re right that Gabr also has potential, but he still failed to beat the favourite despite conditions seemingly in his favour and against the fav. Yes, it is possible Gabr will be suited by good-firm, but far less likely than WP. So far Gabr’s not raced on good-firm in five runs. Is that by design?
Don’t know. You’re right that on bare form of the Heron stakes, Gabr is better value than Without Parole, but in assessing the two it all depends how much the individual punter allows for possible ground issues.I do agree nwaton; at current prices worth trying to get WP beat – as my book illustrates – imo value to be had elsewhere. But I think it’s quite right he’s favourite given his potential and liklihood of conditions suiting… and lack of ability/potential and/or conditions not suiting others.
Sorry about the essay, couldn’t answer your question in a one-liner.
Value Is EverythingWithout Parole is currently 11/4 best price and that looks a bit tight for a horse with something to prove against those with form in the book. As things stand I’d rather take combined best odds of a shade over around 6/5 Romanised(11/2), Tip Two Win(6/1) and US Navy Flag(6/1).
Without Parole is an awful price now. I took him early, at 12/1, in the hope that a poor field would assemble. It’s not a great field against him but it is a fair bit better than I had hoped when placing my bet.
I don’t have any real confidence of collecting with him, given how his earlier form has panned out since and I was bitterly disappointed with him last time out, giving a performance well short of what I had anticipated.
From the 31 runs since Without Parole completed his hat trick only 2 have won, 3 placed and 26 were unplaced. The two winners were rated 79 and 84. When you add that Without Parole has started odds-on in all three wins, you are facing a reality that this will be his first actual race.
If I were a professional punter I would be cashing in my chips for a free bet on Without Parole.
Tip Two Win would be a confident pick here based on his Guineas 2nd if we could be sure it wasn’t a fluke. He was ahead of Derby winner Masar there and Roaring Lion later waltzed away with the Dante next time. The form is miles ahead of anything Without Parole has done, yet you could get more than twice the odds on Tip Two Win and still get twice the odds in places.
Romanised is a classic winner who is also well behind the Listed winner Without Parole in the betting. I am concerned that the Irish Guineas form may not pan out though. It was a funny race with favourite Elarqam beaten at half way. That left the well raced US Navy Flag to make the best of his way home but he had no answer to Romanised in the closing stages.
The worry for me would be if Romanised was really due the rise from 107 to 119, given the he beat a horse yet to win at the distance and the favourite wouldn’t have won at Brighton, given the way he ran. Did Romanised just outstay them all?
Summary:-
I feel Aidan is trying to force a mile win out of US Navy Flag and while he may eventually get there I feel it could be a case of just recouping previous losses when he goes in.
I am concerned about Romanised and would rather leave him to prove he’s jumped to Group 1 level.
Without Parole is a big lay for me now at 5/2 given his moderate achievements so far. He’s not come forward the way I anticipated and faces Guineas winners and placers now. He’s just a 12/1 saver for me now.
I am banking on Tip Two Win confirming that he’s better at a mile than he was at shorter, and trained by a bigger name he would be favourite I feel.
Of the others, Wootton looked quirky last time and eventual winner Olmedo stank Chantilly out next time. Gustav Klimt looks exposed as not Group 1 level now,
Tip Two Win 11/2
A place lay on Without Parole at 1/2 seems a low tariff option that won’t break the bank. Shaking my head at his odds and surely someone will have the testicular fortitude to go 4/1 on the day?
Good luck all!
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Without Parole is a staying sort of a miler for my eye. Should get a decent pace that will help but
I don’t think the going or bend will help him, he seems to take a while to go through the gears.
Think he’ll end up at 10f this season
That said it doesn’t look a great race on paper and nothing jumps off the page as one to back.
Gabr at 12/1 could be one for a place, wasn’t beaten far against the fav at Sandown and that was his 1st run of the campaign.Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Don’t know. You’re right that on bare form of the Heron stakes, Gabr is better value than Without Parole, but in assessing the two it all depends how much the individual punter allows for possible ground issues.
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