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It seems fairly sure that ATR French Expert Liz Price will tip Shahnaza for the Prix Diane tomorrow.
The Azamour filly is about 5/2 Fav for the race and has plenty scope, yet the odds seem skinny to me, given her own achievements compared to those at bigger odds.
People have defended Liz Price from my comments but I just don’t see the point of an “Expert” who seems to tip the hot favourite most of the time. One of her picks, and sole winner, the other week was 1/7 Fav and I think we could all pick those ones. In addition, I don’t think it’s much cop tipping 6/4 Fav’s as “Good each-way bets”
Having said that Liz could well be correct in tipping Shahnaza, if she decides to opt for her. The filly could have much more to give yet after a second and then two wins in her career to date. The problem for me is that she is 5/2 after landing a listed race, while others are bigger odds despite placing in a Classic and two candidates have won a Group 1 race, a good bit for a Listed winner to catch up with.
Shahnaza actually comes into this rated behind several of these on RPRs. A good bit more will be needed and I see no value at the odds, given the circumstances. She also faces speedier fillies, with Newmarket second and third, Laurens and Happily in the line up. Shanaza will need a mile and a half to reach the next level I feel and although the filly who was behind her won a group 3 next time, she beat two fillies into second and third who had both come into the race rated 78 on RPRs. The Racing Post guy had to raise one by 23 lbs and the other by 25 lbs to give the winner a rating something akin to a Group 3 rating on 106, with her coming into the race rated 97.
Happily landed the Group 1 Lagardere last season, beating home French Guineas winner Olmedo and Derby winner Masar in the process. Only 3rd at Newmarket, when Laurens was second to surprise package Billesdon Brook. The O’Brien filly went on fill the same spot in the Irish version but some will feel she will improve for stepping up in trip and that seems logical given that she could beat colts at a mile last season on testing ground at Group 1 level. The form of the Lagardere could scarcely have been franked better than two future classic winners who were behind the filly who seemed to line up as O’Brien’s best hope early this season.
Laurens is also a Group 1 winner, landing the Prix St Alary after finishing runner up in the Guineas. Her level of form is also well ahead of Shahnaza at the moment. A big question for Laurens will be if Freddie Head’s With You can reverse her narrow defeat in the Prix Alary. It was said earlier in the season that With You was behind the other fillies in the Head yard in terms of coming to hand. Looking at her on her event debut, she didn’t seem to have grown much from last season and I felt Laurens outshone her in the paddock. Give the Dansili filly her due though, she ran a belter and only just went down to a fit and well Classic runner up and any improvement will surely see With You right in the mix for owner George Strawbridge.
Luminate made a winning return this season but made pretty heavy weather of it, just catching the Graffard filly Homerique, who looked to have caught Luminate flat-footed initially. I was underwhelmed by Luminate and next time out she was 2/5 Fav for the Group 3 Prix Cleopatre, again at Saint-Cloud, but got involved in some scrimmaging and when clear, she couldn’t quite catch the leader, who held on a by a short neck. It transpired that Luminate was deemed the one to have caused interference to the ultimate 4th and she was placed behind her into 5th place. For me, Luminate looks to need a mile and a half, a prognosis I have also made for the favourite Shahnaza.
Musis Amica was always travelling under pressure last time out. Her jockey earned his fee big time and eventually she did stay on late. This increase in trip looks essential for her now but I just don’t like horses who tend to get outpaced, as it doesn’t always work out that the extra distance makes the difference you would expect.
For me the race revolves around the two fillies who ran in the Newmarket Guineas, and their formlines.
Happily is second favourite but should she half the odds of Laurens, who was ahead of her in the Guineas? Laurens went on to win her Group 1 but it was a narrow success at 10F. Nevertheless, there would be no reason for me to say that Happily is guaranteed to be much better suited to 10F than Laurens was in her first try at the trip and Laurens has shown courage in holding off With You last time and again against a closing September last season, begging the question as to whether she might tough it out once again?
The alternative between the two UK fillies fighting it is to consider as to whether With You may come forward a fair bit for her first race of the year and reverse Alary form with Laurens, and in the process beat Happily off as well?
With You and Wind Chimes were the two French 2YO fillies I felt might be top of the pile this season. I still think Wind Chimes would have won the French Guineas with a more positive ride or if they had run the race on the intended inner track. I am going to take the view that With You will be luckier than her and I have backed her to come forward enough to best Laurens this time and lift the Diane.
Slight reservations about her lack of growth over the winter but she really should improve given an excellent start in a group 1 race, where she went to within a short head of our Guineas runner up. Trainer Freddie Head said the softer ground the better for his other filly Luminate but With You has also won on heavy albeit at a lower level.
I’ve also had a wee bet on Homerique, who only went down in the final strides to Illuminate on what was only her second start. She looked to have secured that race and any improvement will see her in the mix I feel. Francis Graffard rarely over-faces his horses and he must think she can be involved. Worth a wee try at 16/1 I think.
Summary:-
I have to be a layer of Shahnaza at the odds.
Happily seems too short for me as well.
Best outsider Homerique 16/1.
Main bet With You at 8/1 and a wee nibble at 10’s available afterwards.
Good luck all players, Liz Price included.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Looks a very competitive race
I think Happily will get the trip Steve if they run the usually French style pace of steady, steady, steady, go
that said she’s short enough in comparison to some others. I like Laurens and agree with the assessment of With You. I can’t split the pair of them and I’ve played them in a reverse forecastGaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
If it was over 12f i think laurens would win easily, 10 1/2 might just be enough of a trip, shes way overpriced at 8/1, the fav is a “false fav” atm listed winner by azamour doesnt have the pedigree nor the form to win, but i cant say i know much about her, over further than the guineas trip i think laurens is more likely than happily and there price difference is very odd, with you will be the danger to laurens, one of those two will win. At the prices you can comfortably back both.
I have high hopes for Shahnaza, I think she will win today and have backed her for the Arc at 20/1.
Game as a pebble again from Laurens.
Once again Musis Amica loses because of being outpaced at the start. Surely a mile and a half beckons for her.
With You ran well again, I thought she was going just about the best at one stage but she quickly came under the pump. It was hard to believe she was only 5th in the end as other fillies flew late. Freddie Head continues to under-achieve in the big races.
Happily was a ridiculous price and seems to have that knack of letting punters down. Figures of 334 for her runs this year is well below expectations but it may not stop her going off favourite next time she runs.
A great race to watch but the general feeling continues that it’s a fairly tight generation at a bit below true, and clear, standout quality from any individual.
One again, Laurens wins when I am not on her and finds one too good when I am.
Homerique gave me a great run and I was convinced she would reverse form with Luminate from their earlier meeting. 3rd at 16/1 wasn’t a bad return.
Original favourite Shahnaza looked a terrible bet to me and she was an easy lay in my mind. She looks like she needs a mile and a half and I can’t see her being competitive in the Arc.
Laurens is a tough old cookie and consistent. Well done to her backers. I picked the wrong one from the right race to be interested in and once more it proved to follow Group 1 form over Listed class.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Did anyone see Wind Chimes today?
After having come from way back for third last time, Ryan Moore had her miles off the pace today. The winner had probably flown too far to be caught but Moore certainly robbed her of second place from where he started her effort.
Do jockey’s bother watching a horse’s previous run?
I didn’t back Wind Chimes because she was way too short for a filly yet to win this season but I don’t think Moore was very good on the 11/10 Fav, who was dropping to Group 3 class today. Didn’t do much for Teppal’s French Guineas form.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Did anyone see Wind Chimes today?
Wind Chimes was in action again yesterday. Ryan Moore was replaced by her usual jockey this time and she kicked away from her field to win by three and a half lengths in cosy fashion and earning her highest rating thus far on RPRs.
I remain convinced that she should have won the Prix Diane. She may win a big one in the autumn I suspect.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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