Queen Mary Stakes 2018

[viktors89]

Very impressed with Shades of Blue today at Ascot.

Anywhere I could bet on her for the Queen Mary? I didn’t see the market for the race in the bookies I use.

[stevecaution]

Probably too early for prices just yet Viktors.

That was a very nice start for Clive Cox’s filly. She quickened nicely and was probably value for a bit more given the way the race panned out.

You would expect winners to emerge from those in behind and Cox usually has some nice speedy youngsters.

Shades Of Blue is a Kodiac filly born at the end of January so she could be expected to be quite forward. There were perhaps more scopey fillies in the field and it may be that this is her year, rather than longer term.

If having a bet in the Queen Mary you would be looking to see what O’Brien sends and William Haggas usually has a fast filly for the race. The main concern for me would be seeing Wesley Ward leading a filly onto the racecourse who looks like the father of the rest of the field.

Here’s the race for those who missed it:-

http://www.tdn.premiumtv.co.uk/streaming/watch/RacingUKFlashVOD/partnerId_166/videoFileId_16630772/clipId_2782984/index.html

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[Middle_Of_March]

I expect Fairyland to go for the Albany as that seems the vibe from what I’ve read.

Shades Of Blues form couldn’t be working out any better with pretty much everything in behind winning. I can see myself sticking a few quid on her if she runs – I’m staggered as to her price at 8/1 with Bet365 who are NRNB.

However, at 5/1 NRNB, I’ve played the American filly. Based on her debut at Keeneland and the comments from people who know their stuff on the American juveniles, they think she is the best of the lot. With the controversial issue of latex and how Wesley Ward tends to send a good one to the Queen Mary (Acapulco and Lady A anyone), I’ve backed Chelsea Cloisters here. That Keeneland debut really was eye catching.

Chelsea Cloisters @ 5/1 NRNB

[Voleur]

“With the controversial issue of latex and how Wesley Ward tends to send a good one to the Queen Mary (Acapulco and Lady A anyone), I’ve backed Chelsea Cloisters here.”

That damned latex. I always thought Wesley Ward had a shady look about him, but never once did I suspect it was down to a fetishistic attraction to polyvinyl chloride.

[Middle_Of_March]

Ha – Lasix!

I knew what i meant haha

[stevecaution]

Chelsea Cloisters is the only one of Wesley’s said to be certain for Royal Ascot’s Queen Mary. Shang Shang Shang will tackle colts in the Norfolk and Stillwater Cove will run in the Albany over 6F.

The others said to be coming are Our Passion, for the Windsor Castle and Moonlight Romance, who they hadn’t decided on a target for when I last looked.

Chelsea Cloisters clocked the fastest time of the Ward fillies at Keeneland and she looks to have the same profile as Lady Aurelia in terms of early toe and the potential to make all at Royal Ascot. Given good ground she will be very hard to catch.

Ward’s Mae Never No was in action at Belmont Park this evening for Wesley Ward. She came in challenging colts this time after beating her more fancied stablemate Abyssinian on debut. Abyssinian hosed up 8 lengths on sloppy ground next time, having been outstayed by Mae Never No first time up. Ironically, Mae Never No seemed to have the race well in the bag tonight, only to fold up like a toppled Jenga pile in the closing stages to only be third. It was still a decent effort with Gary Stevens putting up 2 lbs overweight against colts and with several in the field rated over 100. It suggests the ones going to Ascot must be decent.

Other Ward fillies to catch my eye were Athens Queen, who was once said to also be an Albany possible and Wonder Stone who looked very fast over 4 and a half furlongs first time out. They clashed at Belmont last night in a $94,000 race however and that rules them out of Ascot. Wonder Stone come out of the boxes like Trap 1 at Walthamstow but she looked a 4 furlong horse, and did not get home. Athens Queen looked a shade green and awkward but came through to land it without looking special but all 6 fillies were rated over 100 and she defied the market, which suggested she was not that fancied at 12/1.

It suggests that Chelsea Cloisters must be at a good level if she is the pick of the bunch to follow in Lady Aurelia’s footsteps and the style of her win suggests that 5F will not be an issue, as she does most of the damage from some way into the race, rather than pinging and gaining a lot of ground early. She seems to keep on well at the finish and it’s going to be tough for the locals to match this show below:-

http://www.attheraces.com/atrplayer-replay-overlay/VOD/1037200

Looks banker material to me for Royal Ascot

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[stevecaution]

Forgot to add that Chelsea Cloisters is 6/1 with Paddy Power and that is a price that will surely contract as the betting public get the message that she’s coming and perhaps see her for the first time.

In addition the O’Brien fillies ahead of her in the betting may go Albany and in any case it is a rare blank contest for the trainer, having never landed it thus far.

I reckon Chelsea Cloisters should be 3/1 given her trainer’s record in the race.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[Middle_Of_March]

Agree 100% with everything you’ve said.

5/1 NRNB is absolutely incredible. I’d have her 15/8 NRNB at this stage tbh.

[KevMc]

Shades Of Blue looks well overs at 8s, her form has been franked various times and she won with ease still looking very green.

[stevecaution]

Shades Of Blue is a cracking EW at 8/1 for sure Kev. I doubt the O’Brien fillies will run here. They started at 6F and I think it would be insane dropping them to 5F to take on very speedy fillies. They will surely be looking to the future with those 6F winners.

Chelsea Cloisters ran in the same race as Lady Aurelia started in and Ward has said he likes to target his horses from that Keeneland meeting towards Royal Ascot. Some of Ward’s youngsters winter in Florida and that’s surely a big advantage compared to our chilly climbs.

Judging by Ward’s other 2YO fillies and their ratings, I have to assume that Chelsea Cloisters is rated over 100 already, even if Equibase have her on 97 and although Shades Of Blue can take a big leap forward from her starting RPR of 84 there is no reason for Chelsea Cloisters not to improve as well.

Lady Aurelia started with a 98 performance on RPRs and then leapt to 123 at Royal Ascot. I am not saying Chelsea Cloisters will be anywhere near that but she won’t need to be anywhere near that figure and a nose win pays the same as 7 lengths and more win as Lady Aurelia recorded.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[stevecaution]

Jessica Harrington is reported to be dropping Servalan to 5F for the Queen Mary, reckoning she has plenty speed.

I think that’s a big mistake and she should be in the Albany in my opinion. Why drop her into a race that is pretty much condemning a horse to sprinting, when the horse has already won at 6F and can surely go Albany next to see if the Moyglare is a future target?

Not in the Queen Mary betting yet, I had been looking at Servalan as an Albany option since she was an 8/1 shot for that race. I am not sure how Servalan didn’t win her debut race. It was strikingly similar to the circumstances in which Sergei Prokofiev managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory on his debut.

Sending Servalan to the Queen Mary to take on a Wesley Ward speedball seems the surest way to get her beaten. At the moment Servalan’s RPR of 98 is just ahead of Fairyland and she made a bigger jump from race 1 to 2 than the O’Brien filly.

It all seems to point to dropping back to 5F to face Chelsea Cloisters as a bad decision to me.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[charlie87]

Stats up to 2017 (not including Heartache)

14/15 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
14/15 – Had between 1 and 3 previous runs that season
13/15 – Had won over 5f (or shorter) before
13/15 – Won by a horse foaled between Jan-Mar
12/15 – Won their previous race
10/15 – Placed favourites
7/15 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
5/15 – Returned a double-figure price
3/15 – Trained by Wesley Ward (including last 2 runnings)
2/15 – Won by trainer Richard Hannon
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 17/2

[Middle_Of_March]

My bet of the week is now 5/2. She halved in price this morning after Ward said she could be as good a Queen Mary horse as he’s brought over.

[stevecaution]

Bookies are waking up regarding Chelsea Cloisters. It seems as if Fairyland will not be running, as she has drifted out to 7/1 now.

Aidan’s other filly doesn’t look as fast to my eyes as Chelsea Cloisters and as I said, the trainer is yet to land the race.

Shades Of Blue is respected but I could see Chelsea Cloisters 7/4 here and she forms the start of my treble for the meeting, Chelsea Cloisters 6/1, Crystal Ocean 2/1 and Shang Shang Shang 11/2. Recoletos at 8/1 made up the ten bob yankee for the this year.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[stevecaution]

Ladbrokes are 15/8 Chelsea Cloisters now.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[Middle_Of_March]

She’s gonna smash them I hope and think

[viktors89]

Got 10s on the exchanges for Shades of Blue, and it will take a good one to beat her

[Author]

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