The home of intelligent horse racing discussion
The home of intelligent horse racing discussion

Oaks 2018

Home Forums Big Races – Discussion Oaks 2018

Viewing 15 posts - 31 through 45 (of 147 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #1353255
    stevecautionstevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8279

    As I said on DLAP I have backed Lah Ti Dar at 11/1 purely because I felt she could be favourite for the race this evening. if Happily wins the Guineas, she will be short but if she misfires and Lah Ti Dar wins the Pretty Polly in good fashion, I reckon she might be favourite. With September a no-show in the Guineas, it’s a concern for me and Lah Ti Dar seems to hold a reasonable chance in a fairly uninspiring Oaks so far.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1353257
    Cheltenham Novice Chase
    Participant
    • Total Posts 303

    Flattering won a 1m 2f maiden yesterday by 10 lengths for Coolmore yesterday at Cork and currently sits at 33-1 for the Oaks. Obviously it was only a maiden so it’s difficult to attach to much weight to the result even more so with it being run on Soft to Heavy. That said when a ballydoyle trained horse wins 10 lengths it’s worth taking note. What did people make of the performance?

    #1353267
    Mike007
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1851

    Nice Oaks trial from Wild Illusion I thought. On at 16s for that a little while back.

    #1353280
    Mike007
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1851

    Now just need the Gosden horse to do the bizzness.

    #1353283
    ham
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2570

    Nice shout with lah ti dar joni, shes definitely progressive enough for this, still very raw but was well in command there

    #1353287
    stevecautionstevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8279

    Lot of humming an hawing from the pundits but what do they want to see? Gosden said the ground would be quick enough and that a mile and a half with some cut will be ideal in future. She’s won a shade over 3 lengths and 5 lengths further back to the third. If only all even money shots did that!

    It’s only her second run and it’s a trial. We saw Masar winning his trial nine lengths and then beaten next time, we saw Mendelssohn win his trial 18 lengths and then finish last next time. Everybody seems to get a milk bottle in their knickers over wide margin winners and not see that a progression to peak in the Classic is a better method.

    A couple of firms showing 13/2 and 6/1 but Lah Ti Dar is generally 4/1 for the Oaks now. Wild Illusion didn’t last long at 16/1 and is 12/1 now after a good Guineas run.

    Anyway, I felt Lah Ti Dar might be favourite by 5PM and she is. Happy with 11/1 but it’s a long way off yet. Well done Jonibake on snaring big odds :good:

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1353290
    TheGunTheGun
    Participant
    • Total Posts 186

    Laurens might be a bet for this. Certainly bred for the job.

    #1353292
    Middle_Of_MarchMiddle_Of_March
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2676

    Uninspiring Steve? Really? I think this looks like being a high class renewal even at this stage.

    Getting worried with September though I have to say. Wanted to see her in the Chester race but she’s not entered.

    #1353293
    GingertipsterGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26588

    Laurens might be a bet for this. Certainly bred for the job.

    Owner and trainer talking about going for the French Oaks, TG.

    value is everything
    #1353294
    Middle_Of_MarchMiddle_Of_March
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2676

    Cashed out one of my September bets and stuck it on La Ti Dar. A saver at the least if September runs.

    #1353295
    GingertipsterGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26588

    Massive 180 regards from the previous two pages on Lah Ti Dar for you Steve.
    Nothing wrong with that.
    Think you’re now correct. :good:

    value is everything
    #1353306
    Jonibake
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4223

    Thanks Ham and Stevie. She did it well enough in the end but I was hoping for a bit more to be honest. Workmanlike but still it looked like a bit of a muddling race and she is still green. The ground at Epsom is unlikely to be as quick and she will improve for the step up in trip. A definite contender at least – I’d quite like to see her run in the Musidora to get her more experience rather than Breakfast With Stars but trust that JG knows best.

    Would be good to know what the deal is with September. She hasn’t been entered in any of next weeks Oaks trials so I reckon the next few days will be decisive in telling us whether she will run in the Oaks. I expect to see her entered at York this week – if not I think we can count her out.

    "this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"

    #1353308
    DegaussedDegaussed
    Participant
    • Total Posts 567

    Well done to anybody who got on Lah Ti Dar at a price. I think her price might end up drifting back out a little as we blow through the trials, but she will nevertheless be a leading contender and I’m wishing I had taken Steve’s advice of 11s earlier!

    The one who really caught my eye was Happily. I backed her today, but AOB said to the Racing Post:

    “Since the start of the season it’s always been the plan to run Happily in the Guineas. She did very well last year and she’s in good form and ready to start off. It’s her first run of the year, and she will improve for the run, but we’re happy with her.”

    She definitely shaped like she would improve not only for the run for more of a trip. I also don’t think she handled the dip at Newmarket – she ran on strongest when attacking the finishing hill. I will look through the entries a bit more, but she looks to be Ballydoyle’s best hope and will probably go off a lot shorter than 6s.

    #1353312
    stevecautionstevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8279

    I wasn’t going to back Lah Ti Dar but after September missed the Guineas it seemed silly not to take the potential opportunity of sitting with bigger odds this evening.

    I maintain it’s an uninspiring race. Nothing there that excites me. The Guineas fillies were pumped by a 66/1 shot. I have my doubts Laurens will stay and September may be a bust this season.

    Clemmie has yet to run beyond 6F and is terrible value in my opinion.

    Billesdon Brook has been awarded 115 on RPR’s and I don’t think Lah Ti Dar will be too much short of that mark when the dust settles on the Pretty Polly.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1353313
    Middle_Of_MarchMiddle_Of_March
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2676

    A twitter rumour going about is that she’s had a small setback within the last 7-14 days. Not definitely out of the Oaks but there’s a race against time to get her in the prep race.

    I know it wouldn’t happen but is it allowed that she could go straight to epsom? I assume not as I’ve not seen any horse do that on seasonal debut. But the Oaks was her long term target as well rememebr. I just pray she runs in the next couple of weeks.

Viewing 15 posts - 31 through 45 (of 147 total)
  • You must be logged in to reply to this topic.