1000 Guineas 2018

8 weeks to go until the big day, folks!
Within this time people might dream on about some big priced fillies,
but the short priced one will win this, her name begins with a C..

Liked what I heard from O’Brien On September for the Oaks. Went to bump that thread but it appears to have vanished. The only one is Darren’s thread with 2 replies.

No idea what happened to the Oaks thread on three pages? Most of that was me talking up September as the Oaks winner.

I’m not sure Nath. It was a decent thread though and it’s a shame it’s vanished.

I went and had a look the other day for an Oaks thread, and couldnt find one either.

Tad strange not to try Clemmie over 7f or a mile before the guineas, but no point questioning a master.

I added Wind Chimes as my final bet on this race at 14/1 earlier on.

That makes two proper bets now. One on Veracious at 25/1 and one on Wind Chimes at 14/1. That’s it whatever happens now. I had a few ante-posts from way back at small stakes, more for fun than anything early doors and of those Alpha Centauri has a small chance of bouncing back still.

Alpha Centauri was swamped in the mud on her final start last year. The stable were out of form at the time and she is better than she showed there. She was beaten by a fast filly in Different League at Royal Ascot and Clemmie was behind that day. Clemmie has come on from there of course but I just feel she is short enough for the Guineas coming in as a 6F filly for now.

Clemmie’s three wins have not yielded many winners. In 54 runs from those contests since, only four wins have come, with Nyaleti’s group 3 the best piece of form. Nyaleti was highly tried after that but didn’t win again in four efforts, dropping 8 lbs in the Official Ratings across those four races to 106, from her peak figure of 114.

Clemmie’s best run by some way for me was her ultimate start. I took her on with Different League that day to no avail. It is hard to say if Different League will prove best beyond 6F though and Newmarket on Good/Soft would be a tough test for a speed horse in the Autumn.

I feel Clemmie is a tad thin at 3/1 if O’Brien is going to run Happily and September as well.

Hard to beat the O’Brien juggernaut but I find it odd that Wind Chimes comes here when the owners already had the first three in the betting.

September would be the lay for me here, there are surely faster fillies in the mix.

Veracious and Wind Chimes need to catch Clemmie up but it seems almost certain they will improve. At 115, Clemmie is probably limited in how much further she can rise, as the glass ceiling approaches.

Andre Fabre is a good man to have on your side and I can see Wind Chimes lining up at 6/1 or so on Guineas day.

The last 25 1000 Guineas winners ran at their furthest distances as two year olds as follows:-

2017 Winter 1 mile
2016 Minding 1 mile
2015 Legatissimo 1 mile
2014 Miss France 1 mile
2013 Sky Lantern 1 mile
2012 Homecoming Queen 1 mile 1/2 Furlong
2011 Blue Bunting 1 mile
2010 Special Duty 6F ( second past post but awarded the race)
2009 Ghanaati 7F
2008 Natagora 6F (Going GF in Guineas and she never won at a mile again)
2007 Finsceal Beo 1 mile
2006 Speciosa 1 mile
2005 Virginia Waters 7F
2004 Attraction 6F
2003 Russian Rhythm 6F (GF going in Guineas)
2002 Kazzia 1 mile
2001 Ameerat 1 mile
2000 Lahan 7F
1999 Wince 7F
1998 Cape Verdi 7F
1997 Sleepy Time 1 mile
1996 Bosra Sham 1 mile
1995 Harayir 6F (GF going in Guineas)
1994 Las Meninas 6F
1993 Sayyedati 7F

That breaks down as:-

1m or more 13 winners
7F 6 winners
6F 6 winners

Conclusion:-

Clearly, fillies can win the Guineas after only racing at 6F as a juvenile. It seems that if the going is fast on Guineas day it helps, which is logical. Just as many fillies have run at 7F as a maximum distance at 2YO and gone on to glory at Newmarket in the Guineas.

Fillies who have run at a mile aged two have a shade more twice the success rate over the other distances covered in the first season of racing, and the last seven winners of the Guineas have run at a mile or further aged 2YO.

We have seen Galileo offspring get further than you would expect and that gives Clemmie a fair chance of getting the mile well enough to win the Guineas.

I can’t say she is value at the odds now, but clearly the early players have a great bet on their hands. If mine can’t win it, I would love to see Clemmie collect for those with the foresight to have a go at big odds. It’s not at all easy to find double carpet priced Classic winners but it’s a great feeling when you do and I would genuinely be happy for the winners at big odds. It’s not life or death stuff for me and if you can’t be pleased for your fellow forumites, it’s a sad day.

Thanks for the update Mr Walton. Once the french trials have been run we should have a better idea of how things stand.

I liked With You a lot last season and her form has had a few boosts. the trouble is that the Prix Diane was said to be her target and there is no betting available.

Tantheem was a filly who seemed to be progressing well last season, Nwalton, but was found wanting when finishing 5th in the Morny as the 13/5F. There didn’t seem to be any excuses for her that day, she just seemed woefully outpaced when it came to the business end of the race. She is only a little filly, so it could be a classic case of a small horse filling out her frame earlier than her contemporaries, who inevitably catch up to her in the latter stages of the year.

Freddy Head was of the opinion at one stage that she was better than even Polydream, who is ante post favourite for the Pouliches, so if she can get back to the form she showed in the early part of last season she should be bang there.

The Al Shaqab filly, Talbah, is the least exposed of a pretty exposed bunch of fillies, it could pay to side with the one open to most improvement. The form of her maiden win hasn’t worked out too well however, with the second home that day going on to finish last of seven next time out.

The filly I like however is Zonza, who like Talbah, seemed to be progressing well with three wins on the bounce, before coming up short in the Morny. She managed to finish a lot closer to Unfortunately that day however, beaten just over a length, she was one of a few who seemed to pay the price for going too freely in the early stages of the race.

She went on to finish 5th in the Marcel Boussac, which if I’m not mistaken is the highest rated race to be ran for two year old fillies last season. If we take the average RPR of the first four home in each race we get; 11.25 for the Marcel Boussac, 110.25 for the Fillies Mile, 108 for the Chevely*** Park, and 105.75 for the Moyglare.

Zonza missed the break that day, and had a lot of ground to make up, but in the end she just wasn’t good enough to finish ahead of four top class fillies.

I think the form she showed last season is good enough to claim Group 3 honours here though, in what looks a pretty sub standard affair.

That breaks down as:-

1m or more 13 winners
7F 6 winners
6F 6 winners

Conclusion:-

Conclusion should be that in this case what others have done in the past has no significance to Clemmie.

Vast majority of two year olds run at a trip best suited to the horse. Therefore, we can expect two year old mile winners to have a much better record in the Guineas than two year old 6f winners. However, Clemmie is no ordinary filly. Made perfect sense keeping her to 6f last year for exceptional reasons. Because in 2017 O’Brien had so many middle-distance bred top class two year old fillies to win all the Group 1 two year old 7f and mile races – Happily, Magical and September. Latter arguably should’ve won the Fillies Mile and would’ve also gone close in America with a different ride/stronger pace. Happily won the Moyglare and beat the colts in the Lagadere as Magical (who’d finished runner-up in the Moyglare) started a short priced favourite in the Boussac. ie Despite breeding and way of running suggesting she’d be even better at a mile Clemmie was still the best 6f filly around… Probably important the stable had no other top class 6f filly to win the Chieveley Park and kept to that distance maximised O’Brien’s chances of breaking the Group 1 World Record. Given the filly’s attributes, what Clemmie did at 6f last year only makes her potential as a miler even greater. Unless unseasonably/unusual very soft ground places enormous emphasis on stamina she’s likely to start very short. 3/1 still looks great value.