1000 Guineas 2018

I have backed ALTYN ORDA at 20/1 and WILD ILLUSION at 8/1.

AOB doesn’t look to have an outstanding filly for this and surely Altyn orda will improve for the run first time out when Varian horses weren’t running great.

Wild Illusion apparently worked fabulously last week or so and looks the solid each way alternative!

@Raymo
I think Altyn Orda has a good chance Raymo she is definitely on my short list and if she can get to post without being too fizzy and spoiling her chances I think she could figure the first three..I truly don’t think we’ve seen the best of her yet.

Every year the winner of the Craven and the Nell Gwyn get beaten in the Guineas it’s becoming quite a reliable stat but of course the horses don’t know that and both Soliloquy and Masar are class acts, but there is one filly who keeps haunting my thoughts and that is Laurens only beaten once by Wild Illusion in France and has run in Group company since winning her maiden. Her nose victory on the Rowley Mile holding off September was a game all the way victory and I think like Natagora before her she will lead the field home all the way on Saturday.

LAURENS – WIN
ALTYN ORDA – Each Way

September is ” unlikely not to run than run ” according to what AOB said on Saturday.

I had my suspicions with September. O’Brien hasn’t been saying anything about her of note this season.

This looks an awful Guineas. Channon has supplemented his filly Dan’s Dream but she looks dubious of her 105 rating for winning the Fred Darling and it will be a sad day if a filly who started her season in a 5 and a half furlong race at Bath, earning a 79 rating, can lift the mile Classic for fillies.

I don’t think it was a good idea going to the Breeders Cup with September. Perhaps they felt she might not train on this year and I’d be very concerned regarding the Oaks for her now.

I’m going to stick with my Liquid Amber at 170s bet, the field is awful.

I echo Steve’s sentiments regarding September. Having backed her about a month ago at 40s for the Guineas and Oaks double, the lack of a run and word for her concerned me and I cashed out to get my tenner back last week. It might be a case that they feel this race is covered and she could instead take the French 1000G, but given how she needs fast ground (not guaranteed in France) you’d have to think an Oaks Trial would be more likely.

I haven’t yet had a bet, and probably won’t until later in the week, but I do suspect that Happily is VERY good and could easily be a Minding in this otherwise average-looking 1000G. She’s about 5/2 now, but it wouldn’t surprise me were she to go off closer to even money on the day.

I haven’t found a substitute für Clemmie and I don’t want to.
This weekend I will only play my favourite AW horse on her first appearance on turf at Goodwood.
Her name is Ocean of Love and I expect her to win with her wonderful mixture of stamina and considerable speed.
As soon as she is confirmed I will push the button, as the AP-chapter is closed for me now .

I’ve nailed my colours to Happily already at 11/2, but I’m starting to agree that I Can Fly is potentially slipping under the radar here. Aidan’s fillies tend to do better in the Guineas with a run under their belt.

Last year Rhododendron was sent off the hot favourite without having a run under her belt, but it was Winter – who shaped so well in the Leopardstown Guineas Trial – that ran out a convincing winner.

Back in 2012, it was Maybe who was sent off the 13/8 favourite without having ran that season, but it was the 25/1 shot Homecoming Queen that absolutely bolted up by 9 lengths, clearly coming on no end from not one, but two prep races prior to the Guineas.

If we go all the way back to 2005, to Aidan’s first winner of the race, we can see that Virginia Waters also benefitted from a prep run before taking the Guineas.

Even Together, who finished a narrow second in 2011, had a prep run in the Leopardstown trial.

Minding is the only filly of Aidan’s to have won the race without having a prep run, and she was exceptional, quite possibly the best winner of the race this century. Happily could be every bit as good as Minding, she has the form in the book and she hails from an extremely talented family of milers, but those are big shoes to fill.

I can’t help but feel that the market move on I Can Fly is money in the know, as they say. Like the move on Winter last year, who was cut from 33/1 to 8/1 in the days leading up to the race, I feel like the plunge on I Can Fly is slipping under the radar slightly.

She doesn’t have the form in the book, but I’m a big fan of the Aidan’s fillies needing a prep run angle, and with the encouraging market support I’m going to have a sizeable each way bet on I Can Fly as support to Happily.

I’ve not had to much luck with fillies for the past few weeks , I just split up with my girlfriend, had to move me, the dogs and a business back to London.

One filly that really catches my eye in this, is Laurens. How she is still available at 9-1, is absolutely amazing. She arguably has the best form in the race, so why is she near four times the price of Happily? Of course the answer is the A P O’Brien factor. I Can Fly is shorter than Laurens too! How’s that? I know he’s a genius, but there’s a bit of an overreaction to his G1 spree last year here.

9-1 is a cracking price for the filly, who’s a G1 course and distance winner in October, just six months ago. The short priced fav, is tied in so closely with Magical, whom Laurens brushed aside very easily in that fillies mile. Hungry jockey, hungry trainer, and she’s their star. The fact that Mjjack has been out so early, and running so well augurs very well too in my humble opinion.

In what looks a fairly weak 1000 to me, she’s a max bet for me. I’ve been snapping up 9’s & 10’s for the past few days. I cannot believe that she’s still 9-1, I cannot see any negatives, I would have her as Fav here.

What price would she be if Aiden trained her? She’d be nigh on odds on.