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Cant remember it word for word, but has essentially said he is a long, long way behind Might Bite.
If you dont fancy Might Bite, then you cant really fancy Whisper. only really if you think Might Bite is the next coming, could you feel confident about E/W money on Whisper.
All according to Hendo’s comments of course…
I know trainer comments cant be taken as Gospel, but anyone backing Whisper after Henderson’s comments needs their head checking IMO.
In regards to Traffic Fluid, am i missing something here. I know someone on this forum was a big fan before the Haydock run, but i just dont see it. Is consistently run in top class races and is always found wanting for class. Hasnt won a race in coming up 3 years now and down to a mark of 153 is surely a handicapper now.
1. Will Aidan O’Brien train over 22 group 1 winners worldwide YES
2. Will Richard Hannon train a group 1 winner worldwide NO
3. Will the Arc winner be English trained YES
4. Will Frankel sire more than 3 individual group 1 winners in races Eng/Ire/France YES
5. Will Silvestre de Sousa ride more winners than Jim Crowley NO
6. Will Wesley Ward train more than one Royal Ascot winner YES
7. Will Beat the Bank win a group 1 race NO
8. Will European horses win more than 2 Breeders Cup races YES
9. Will the Grand National winning SP be 14/1 or above NO
10. Will Alan King King train more Cheltenham festival winners than Phillip Hobbs YES
11. Will Willie Mullins train more than 7 Cheltenham Festival winners NO
12. Will Cause of Causes be placed 1,2,3 in a race in the Cheltenham Festival YES
13. Will the Cheltenham bumper winner be Irish trained YES
14. Will JP McManus own more Cheltenham Festival winners than Mr and Mrs Ricci NO
15. Will Bristol De Mai win more than 3 races in 2018 YES
16. Will Paul Nicholls train more winners than Jonjo O’Neill in the Aintree grand national meeting YESAlso think a lot of punters get lost with “value”. Seems so basic, but it will only be value if it wins/places. The amount of times i see people over the moon with their 16/1 as it is now 5/1 on the day, as if it is job done already and still a bit of a win, even if it doesn’t place. Very quick way to blind yourself to ante post, by thinking you have “won” by simply getting far better odds than are available on the day.
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Depends what you mean by that comment, Tommy.
Vast majority of horses should be quite significantly shorter on the day purely because there’s no risk of losing your stake if the horse does not turn up. ie If betting on day of race punters get their money back if on a non-runner.
However, unless a punter is losing a lot of money with ante-post non-runners (effectively destroying the apparent value of his/her other ante-post bets) in effect the punter has “won by simply getting far better odds than available on the day” with a 16/1 bet available @ 5/1 on the day. Because however a punter chooses his/her horses the aim of every punter should be to get “value”. ie Achieving “value” throughout a punter’s life means whether one particular 5/1 shot wins or loses doesn’t matter – achieving “value” means enough horses win to show a good profit… Achieving value is “job done”.
Completely agree and you have put it far better than I could have.
My point really was that you need to make sure enough of these bets are actually getting over the line and you are not just placing bets getting significantly better odds, which keep losing.Think your average punter also changes stakes for ante-post out of fear for not getting a run for your money, which can in turn effect your overall P&L.
No doubt the smart punter greens up before cheltenham and leaves themselves with a few free bets going into it, but i find it is extremely time consuming tracking all of these and does take a certain amount of knowledge to make it work.
I used to love a Ante Post bet as you could be pretty certain, barring an injury where a horse was going to turn up.
Still plenty of honest trainers/owners out there, but the odd one that you cant trust just ruins these markets.
After Vatour being moved last minute, i set myself the rule to not ante post back Mullins anymore. But that also has the knock on of not backing others out of fear he sends a big boy to that race instead.
Still been stung a number of times this season already with non-runners, so still wary at the minute.
Also think a lot of punters get lost with “value”. Seems so basic, but it will only be value if it wins/places. The amount of times i see people over the moon with their 16/1 as it is now 5/1 on the day, as if it is job done already and still a bit of a win, even if it doesn’t place. Very quick way to blind yourself to ante post, by thinking you have “won” by simply getting far better odds than are available on the day.
Personally i find it takes me a long time to go through a race where you have double figure runners and as i find it quite enjoyable, il take my time looking back over plenty of form to make sure in my mind i have everything covered and it seems a smart bet. I dont generally have time to do it on the weekends, so most of my bets are placed in the week leading up to the race, so can fall into antepost betting. I have tried to cut out these bets i make anytime an hour before a race, as it is generally swayed but a pundit, or something i am not using my own judgement on and generally not betting smart.
Only a couple of the big handicap races you can bet on ante post throughout the year (im talking more than a month in advance) and have always found it strange people getting involved with a handicap, when you dont actually know what mark your horse is going to be running off.
RIP Starchitect, could have gone onto Big races based on how he was hammering these horses at the time. Thoughts are with connections.
Not that I want to fully dissect it, as it was a real tragedy and didn’t have the heart to rewatch it, but what actually happened? At the time, looked as if it was false ground it went over? Broken leg I am assuming.
perhaps not as straight forward as it would first seem. Big old drift from odds on out to 3/1 in the space of a couple of hours, then back into 6/4 with some, now market suspended with a number of bookies.
either way the 11/1 UDS has gone, so im feeling quote good with ante post FN and 11/1 UDS, but could be regretting it all in a couple of hours at this rate.
Said it from the start, I dont think he comes over. They will send UDS instead and i fancy Fox norton to win that.
UDS at 11/1 is still very good imho, so happy to have a saver on that.
Tommy, Bobby (VTC) does 99% of the big race write-ups. I throw in the occasional one but usually with a fiery and blatant disregard of everything but the one I fancy.
Gingertipster does some good ones – especially his annual Grand National preview. Steve Caution does some detailed ones on the Flat and one or two others contribute to the big race previews as well, but Bobby is our equivalent of what Randle P McMurphy sought on his first day’s incarceration when asking: “Who’s Bull Goose Loony around here?”
Joe
Thanks Joe, my praise to Bobby in that case. Must take a fair bit of time to go through a field in the way he does and I personally find it extremely helpful.
Is certainly in poor form of late, but I personally thought he was one of the best around, prior to taking the JP job.
it does seem that those who take no1 jockey roles with trainers comes in for a fair bit more stick – Ryan Moore, Ruby etc. Perhaps it is a perception most have that generally the bigger trainers horses are shorter than they should be, purely from the yard they come from.
with Yanworth specifically, think BG done well to win on him as much as he did last year. I have him down as one of the m Take away the connection and on paper Willoughby Court had every right to beat him
Maybe we are too quick to write DDS off. It was his first run, not over his optimum trip.
Cant bet him now after LTO, but never really seemed to be travelling in that, so excuses perhaps.
I am very new to the forum, albeit long time reader.
Found this the best forum to follow, for a number of reasons, but personally loved the write up each big race got before. I think it is Joe? Cracking write ups either way and i find them helpful as i dont always have the time to fully dissect a race, of which these tend to be written with a fair assessment of each horse.
It seems here people are open and bet without emotion most of the time, happy to hold your hands up if completely wrong about a horse. So sick of hearing people absolutely slate the jockey, because they picked the wrong horse.
Same as these other tipping forums who tip a horse in every race, every day! I mean anyone actually following these needs to give the game up quickly.
have friends and family who like a bet, but in all honesty if you were not allowed to bet, id imagine they would never watch the racing, so good to share some thoughts with like-minded people.
I was trying to find the E/W Value in this race, with the hope that given all the talk will be this is a 2 horse race, you can normally pick up some good e/w value that surpasses the value of the winner.
it does look quite a terrible market IMHO. the top 10 for example:
Faugheen – we know about
BDA – We know about
Melon – Going to have to improve a lot on last year to get into contention here. Won what i suspect was a weak opener this season, but more than entitled to improve. – 14/1
Defi Du Seuil – history proves these juveniles struggle second season hurdling. LTO very disappointing – 18/1
Apples Jade – connections seem to be pretty clear they are aiming at the mares race – 20/1
Yorkhill – Not turning up if Faugheen does and even if something happens with Fuagheen, Mullins still has Melon ahead in the market so may not even turn up with Faugheen out. – 20/1
Min – almost certainly chasing this season and same comments as per Yorkhill, re Mullins – 25/1
Limini – very lightly raced last year, managing only 2 runs and been entered for nothing yet which has to be a concern. – plus same comments re Mullins. I suspect the mares race is far more likelier – 33/1
Wicklow Brave – i find it impossible to get this horse right with his mixed flat campaign. No chance on last years champion hurdle run, but then a good winner at the Punchestown festival. cant see him going anywhere else at chelt but not sure i really like him even for a place – 33/1
Yanworth – proved last year that 2 miles is too sharp for him. Novice chasing hasnt started great so wont be suprised to see him back over hurdles, but connections need shooting if he goes for this, Can still compete at longer distances, but seems to always be entered in races too short for him, which i find strange – 40/1
Special mentions to :
Pingshou – some very good runs last year. Has to come on an awful lot to challenge here, but I prefer him over some of the above – 50/1
Elgin – clearly fast improving given his recent handicaps success, but is he really going to trouble a champion hurdle? 50/1be surprised if half of the top ten in the betting turn up here, so happy to look outside that, but really what else is there?
Might have a small play e/w on Pingshou. I dont recall hearing anything on him this season, have we had any news?
really what else does anyone fancy outside of the top 2?
I dont.
his run LTO was very impressive and he is at an age where he is entitled to still be improving this year. I really do think he can compete with Altior/Douvan come March for the QM. Dont think we have seen the best of FN yet. Will be disappointing if they go for the KG over the Tingle Creek with him.
I hope so but can’t see it. I don’t have him pinned as a natural stayer, so needs to be 100% primed to win this. Yet more evidence Friday, that he doesn’t really find a lot off the bridle which concerns me.
Not going to write him off just yet, perhaps just giving my head a wobble after taking 3/1 with the 10/1 now available.
Thistlecrack 10/1 e/w
Can’t help but think he needs more time now. Having backed him prior to his hurdles run, I now think this will come too soon for him. Don’t know if they could have done with the injury or not, but they must be feeling they should have got him out sooner and then had a second run before the King George, or at least more time to get some work into him.
What a one stage was looking like a thrilling King George with the biggest names in recent years, seems to slowly be falling apart. Anyone on might bite at a half decent price must be laughing. Can only see maybe BDM giving him a race
