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As these “Big Race Discussions” are often about TRFers giving their idea of a good ante-post bet, thought this the best place.
Often hear the expression “XX/1 will look massive if turning up in this”. But one of the biggest reasons a horse is a massive price is it’s unlikely to run. Taken to the nth degree: Sizing John would be a 4/1 favourite if turning up for the Grand National, but 100/1 would be poor ante-post value because he’s not going to turn up. Liklihood of running has to be taken in to account and sometimes it’s extremely unlikely… which means if the punter has no knowing how likely a horse is to run then surely it should not be a bet?
Are punters taking enough notice of likelihood of running?
If a punter takes an average price of 9/1 ante-post and the average day of race best price for those that turn up is 5/1, punters seem to think they’ve got wonderful value. But if only 50% of their bets turn up then the actual average price taken per horse is 4/1 – ie worse than day of race 5/1.
Some do well with ante-post betting, but is it too easy for us to conveniently forget all about our ante-post non-runners (losers)?
Value Is EverythingYou make an excellent point but what is the best way of determining likelihood of running ?
Trainer’s comments are by far the most useful, but I would also give a thought to the horse’s owners and what races they might like to target.
No ante-post price is a good price! It’s hard enough to find the winner of a race knowing the exact field, going, a myriad of other relevant circumstances, and that a bet is void if the horse is a non runner. To invest well in advance knowing none of this, without even getting a refund if the horse is a NR, is illogical and is trusting to a degree of chance that cannot possibly be reflected in the odds taken whatever the price.
I think much depends on your betting style. GM’s point is a fair one which is shared quite widely. By its very nature you need to be an antepost fan of considerable zeal to make a case for it. It used to represent a high percentage of my betting and I did well from it – well enough to keep me betting that way for decades.
But the 4-day festival was when the coffin started squeaking and the ever increasing dominance of Mullins was what put the nail in it for me. My stakes are way lower now than they used to be. But there are still bargains out there that tempt me in, although there are ground rules:
You must be convinced it is the sole target for the horse or at least the one that is very heavy odds-on to be the target.
The horse must not have suffered any degree of unsoundness
The horse must be suited by any going or by the likely going (for example, easy ground on day one of the festival)I’ve made a decent profit from antepost betting most years for quite some time and yet I’ve very, very rarely been restricted in any way by bookmakers; antepost is simply not in their algos. Another angle is that of laying; not something I do often but Bobby (VTC) would, I think regularly go into Cheltenham with a green book on many races before the Supreme flag goes up. But you need to be totally committed to it as a way of betting and hardened to the pitfalls.
I’d be the first to say there’s an ego element in it too and I would never talk up a horse I’d spotted unless I was prepared to put my cash where my mouth is.
So, I’ll sign off with two who are well overpriced for the festival :)
Bristol De Mai at 12/1 (he was hugely overpriced for the KG after the Betfair Chase: odds compilers are being replaced by software and algos that watch Betfair, but they ain’t too good at antepost!).
And The New One at 25/1 for The Stayers. Both should be half their odds at worst. Both are (touch wood) generally sound horses) and both will act on the ground (Bristol De Mai has the added bonus of, should it come up very soft, probably going off about 6/4). Restricted stakes on The New One sadly because of his mad trainer who might have a 5th attempt at the Champion Hurdle despite saying yesterday it’s ‘probably’ the Stayers for him
Onward the optimists!
Not been in the game as long as a few seasoned posters but I’ve slashed my antepost betting by about 80%. Why? Because I’ve lost a fair bit and if I had cut it out earlier my accounts would be even better.
Cmon Might Bite and Saxon Warrior
Trainer’s comments are by far the most useful, but I would also give a thought to the horse’s owners and what races they might like to target.
Trainer comments may be something to keep an eye on and can be helpful. However, trainers are giving their current opinion (of right there and then) not what their opinion will be on day of race. Targets can change very easily according to goings (less or more of a stamina test as well as does the horse “act”). Also what the horse does in the meantime and just as importantly what stable and owner companions do too. Such a lot can change that imo too much is often read in to what trainers say – at least early in the season.
Value Is EverythingWelcome to the forum Wee Jimmy.
You make an excellent point but what is the best way of determining likelihood of running ?
imo It’s simply a good reading of the form book – but I mean a “good” reading. For the majority of punters they won’t know it well enough. Is the horse going to be suited by the distance and likely prevailing ground and (if the Grand National) type of obsticles… And as said, Knowing the trainer and owner’s options with other horses. I would not have an ante-post bet in any race that wasn’t one everyone wants to win. “Big” Saturday races are often not big enough unless connections have made it clear it’s THE target. ie Nowadays connections have plenty of options.
Value Is EverythingIt’s a tricky part of the game, i’ve never been big into it myself. The high profile horses are often priced so badly to begin with (altho you do atleast know in most cases where they would run).
If you are attempting to get a green book when would one think it’s best to lay off? For example, if you go with a 33s hot bumper horse, that wins on hurdle debut.. do you lay off when its say 16s, before the possible “bumble bursts” when he enters tougher company?
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I used to love a Ante Post bet as you could be pretty certain, barring an injury where a horse was going to turn up.
Still plenty of honest trainers/owners out there, but the odd one that you cant trust just ruins these markets.
After Vatour being moved last minute, i set myself the rule to not ante post back Mullins anymore. But that also has the knock on of not backing others out of fear he sends a big boy to that race instead.
Still been stung a number of times this season already with non-runners, so still wary at the minute.
Also think a lot of punters get lost with “value”. Seems so basic, but it will only be value if it wins/places. The amount of times i see people over the moon with their 16/1 as it is now 5/1 on the day, as if it is job done already and still a bit of a win, even if it doesn’t place. Very quick way to blind yourself to ante post, by thinking you have “won” by simply getting far better odds than are available on the day.
Personally i find it takes me a long time to go through a race where you have double figure runners and as i find it quite enjoyable, il take my time looking back over plenty of form to make sure in my mind i have everything covered and it seems a smart bet. I dont generally have time to do it on the weekends, so most of my bets are placed in the week leading up to the race, so can fall into antepost betting. I have tried to cut out these bets i make anytime an hour before a race, as it is generally swayed but a pundit, or something i am not using my own judgement on and generally not betting smart.
Only a couple of the big handicap races you can bet on ante post throughout the year (im talking more than a month in advance) and have always found it strange people getting involved with a handicap, when you dont actually know what mark your horse is going to be running off.
Also think a lot of punters get lost with “value”. Seems so basic, but it will only be value if it wins/places. The amount of times i see people over the moon with their 16/1 as it is now 5/1 on the day, as if it is job done already and still a bit of a win, even if it doesn’t place. Very quick way to blind yourself to ante post, by thinking you have “won” by simply getting far better odds than are available on the day.
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Depends what you mean by that comment, Tommy.
Vast majority of horses should be quite significantly shorter on the day purely because there’s no risk of losing your stake if the horse does not turn up. ie If betting on day of race punters get their money back if on a non-runner.
However, unless a punter is losing a lot of money with ante-post non-runners (effectively destroying the apparent value of his/her other ante-post bets) in effect the punter has “won by simply getting far better odds than available on the day” with a 16/1 bet available @ 5/1 on the day. Because however a punter chooses his/her horses the aim of every punter should be to get “value”. ie Achieving “value” throughout a punter’s life means whether one particular 5/1 shot wins or loses doesn’t matter – achieving “value” means enough horses win to show a good profit… Achieving value is “job done”.
Value Is EverythingNo ante-post price is a good price! It’s hard enough to find the winner of a race knowing the exact field, going, a myriad of other relevant circumstances, and that a bet is void if the horse is a non runner. To invest well in advance knowing none of this, without even getting a refund if the horse is a NR, is illogical and is trusting to a degree of chance that cannot possibly be reflected in the odds taken whatever the price.
I completely disagree. Antepost horse betting is my forte.
40/1, 33/1, 28/1, 25/1, 20/1 and 16/1 for the Grand National winner that went off 14/1. That’s quite clearly value. You only need a few wins like that a season betting antepost to make a profit.
September for the Oaks is another. 33/1 was clearly value.
To claim antepost betting is ‘illogical’ is frankly nonsense in my opinion.
Personally i find it takes me a long time to go through a race where you have double figure runners and as i find it quite enjoyable, il take my time looking back over plenty of form to make sure in my mind i have everything covered and it seems a smart bet. I dont generally have time to do it on the weekends, so most of my bets are placed in the week leading up to the race, so can fall into antepost betting.
tbh With the vast majority of ante-post bets I find no need to look through many of the field in order to identify a good ante-post bet.
For Grade/Group 1’s am betting more against thee average winner.
A) Knowing the average rating achieved by the winner in the last 5 years’
B) A view of how this year’s horses compare – is it likely to be an above or below average year judged by the best horses in the race (usually the market principles).
C) How the horse I’m thinking of backing measures up to them.
D) Judged on all the above is it value?Value Is EverythingI think antepost is like betting in general…a lot of luck involved…
I usually look the week before and try and get a feeling from connections…you can nick a very good value price even a week before…
The last four good prices I’ve managed a week before were…
Sam Spinner 12’s won at 6’a
Blaklion 5’s won at 7/4
Clan Des Obeaux 5’s (was 10’s a week or so before) 2nd at 3/1.
Count Meribel 13/2 second at 2/1…Two winners and two losers…
The one I’ve got my eye on for Saturday and backed this morning is Elgin…Was backable at 10/1 then and is now 8’s and pretty sure he’ll go off shorter…will it win though…
No ante-post price is a good price! It’s hard enough to find the winner of a race knowing the exact field, going, a myriad of other relevant circumstances, and that a bet is void if the horse is a non runner. To invest well in advance knowing none of this, without even getting a refund if the horse is a NR, is illogical and is trusting to a degree of chance that cannot possibly be reflected in the odds taken whatever the price.
I completely disagree. Antepost horse betting is my forte.
40/1, 33/1, 28/1, 25/1, 20/1 and 16/1 for the Grand National winner that went off 14/1. That’s quite clearly value. You only need a few wins like that a season betting antepost to make a profit.
September for the Oaks is another. 33/1 was clearly value.
To claim antepost betting is ‘illogical’ is frankly nonsense in my opinion.
I agree with you, MOM; ante-post betting is not “illogical”. Punters can make a decision on probable “going” and you don’t need to know the “exact field” to identify value… And it’s even possible to have a decent opinion of whether a horse will make it to the race.
However, it does not figure that 25/1 ante-post is necessarily “clearly value” as opposed to 14/1 on the day. Because of that risk of backing non-runners. eg If an ante-post punter backs two horses ante-post both at 25/1 and only one turns up… Then a punter that backs that same horse with the same amount of money on day of race actually gets better value.
Ante-post punter:
1 point win @ 25/1 non-runner
1 point win @ 25/1 wins.
2 points staked overall.
Return 26 points with a profit of +24 on the raceWhen the day of race comes the ante-post punter has invested 2 points overall and only has the one horse running…
Day Of Race Punter:
2 points win @ 14/1 wins.
2 points staked overall.
Return 30 points with a profit of +28 on the raceNumber of ante-post non-runners backed needs to be taken in to account. Punters do not need many to destroy seemingly good value ante-post bets that do turn up.
Value Is Everythingbeen a punter over 40 years now and still cant get to grips with it, i leave that to my son who seems to have a decent record with AP betting for Cheltenham etc.
He don’t listen to trainers ‘targets’ and tries to act through the form book,goes on the basis of which race he would aim the selection at, with taking into account the owners etc.
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