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it is part of the buzz although clearly used by the racing media to hype these events.
in terms of who bets on ante-post it’s definitely more informed punters… people who post on forums like this for example. People like us. probably the vast majority of the people you see down the betting shops wouldn’t be able to tell you what’s running tomorrow let alone what’s running in several months time.
I suppose that may be true judge, as a whole it may not take massive amounts in £ antepost, but its valuable to the sport somewhat, its important for me. Does not mean its important for everyone though i guess.
What does intrigue me though Ginger, is why ask?
Do you have concerns about the Ante-Post punting of others on here? Do you know the answer to your original question?
This Kris ^.
I’ve noticed over a long time on here that a lot of TRFers think they’re doing well with ante-post betting (which they genuinely may well feel). Yet if adding up all the individual punter’s non-runner losing bets it seems highly unlikely profit is made by more than a few.
It seems to me that a lot don’t seem to realise that ante-post non-runner losing bets drastically reduce the value of ante-post winning bets. Like I said earlier, if backing two 25/1 shots and only one turns up (in either the one race or two seperate races)… Then the odds actually achieved is less than a day of race punter who’s taken 14/1 on the day for the one horse that runs. If backing two 7/1 shots and only one turns up I’ve seen TRFers seemingly believing they’ve got good odds when that horse is “only” available at 4/1 on the day. Seemingly unaware the odds achieved was in fact just 3/1 etc. Even seen someone back a horse for three seperate races at the Cheltenham Festival still believing he’d get a good price… And multiply those figures, if only two in three ante-post bets turn up it drastically cuts back on the supposed “value” of those that do and the value of a punter’s winners too.
It sometimes seems TRFers either don’t understand how important getting a run is? Or are just unconcerned if it’s a doubtful runner?… And there are cases where odds make it worth taking a chance on a doubtful runner (not many). But it sometimes seems to me some are more concerned with backing/tipping the horse (supposed winner) at a bigger price than anyone else (on the individual thread/race) than actually making an overall profit? Fair enough if that is the case, nothing wrong with being unconcerned with making a profit if the punter is not expecting one.
Value Is EverythingIf you consistently and comfortably beat SP, you are more likely than not making a profit antepost.
No, not if a punter backs a lot of non-runners, MOM. Odds for ante-post races are much higher because of the risk in not getting a run and because at time of bet there’s many more potential runners (winners) in the field. If there’s 40 runners in an ante-post market then the odds are split between the 40. If on the day there’s 6 runners the odds are split between 6. If backing four 7/1 shots ante-post for the Cheltenham Festival, the odds achieved if just one turns up is Evens. ie Day of race punters who take 5/4 for that horse have got better value.
Value Is EverythingThere is only one way to know whether you are making a profit or loss and that is simply to record every bet you place ante post or otherwise . Sure this can be a chastening exercise at times , difficult to sustain during a losing run but vital in order to avoid becoming a delusional ” just about breaking even” punter.
If you consistently and comfortably beat SP, you are more likely than not making a profit antepost.
No, not if a punter backs a lot of non-runners, MOM. Odds for ante-post races are much higher because of the risk in not getting a run and because at time of bet there’s many more potential runners (winners) in the field. If there’s 40 runners in an ante-post market then the odds are split between the 40. If on the day there’s 6 runners the odds are split between 6. If backing four 7/1 shots ante-post for the Cheltenham Festival, the odds achieved if just one turns up is Evens. ie Day of race punters who take 5/4 for that horse have got better value.
But the key to antepost punting is beating SP and correctly anticipating what race the horse runs in.
I personally believe myself to be good at antepost betting. Predicting what race they will go for is the hard part but that’s why you get the big prices.
For the festival, the ‘To win any race’ market is great. 4/1 on Samcro looks a brilliant bet now. I put that up on the Cheltenham Novice Hurdlers thread months ago.
Stick to finding one good bet for a race and then get stuck in. I’ve said for months, September will win the Oaks. She may go off 5/4 favourite and get beat by a nose. I have her to win and whilst I will be absolutely gutted if that happens, I’ll know my monster prices will, one day in a blue moon, get that one that wins (One For Arthur). That pays for the losing bets. And more.
That’s my take on it. Backing four 7/1 shots is madness if you ask me. If they’re that short, stick to one. Or if you fancy all four, leave the race alone. Four 7/1 bets for one race will not make you a winning punter.
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