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Agree with Middle of march here.
Punters like him, Ham and Steve Caution seem to be experts at getting on early, even ante post early in the week of the race, and consistently get much bigger prices than tends to be the case at S.P.
That can’t always be chance.
(he was hugely overpriced for the KG after the Betfair Chase: odds compilers are being replaced by software and algos that watch Betfair, but they ain’t too good at antepost!).
another interesting point and another depressing example of how humans are losing their jobs and getting shunted aside by machines.
Perhaps algos aren’t very good at ante post though given the sophistication of AI these days it’s only a matter of time before they master that as well. In fact this might lead me on to another subject, how in future it will become impossible to win against the bookmakers in the long run, at the moment it’s just extremely difficult but even the books make a rick every now and again, but AI taking over setting the prices will eliminate any few mistakes that used to crop up, phasing out the golden days of the occasional smart winning punter.
Very much doubt computers will ever replicate the subjectiveness needed to correctly analyse form in to chance.
Value Is EverythingAgree with Middle of march here.
Cheers.
The problem is finding the winners. Consistently can find horses at double the odds of their SP but it’s just about getting them over the line to win.
But if it happens and suddenly you’ve found a 33/1 shot winning at 10s or something, it makes up for the previous failings.
I’m definitely in profit betting antepost. But I’m definitely at a loss betting on the day. Hence why I stick to the higher class racing now.
Something that is more specific to me as a punter betting antepost, I bet to win even if it’s 40/1. Because I trust my instinct that they will go off shorter if they turn up. Otherwise I’m risking two bets on then turning up.
So my stakes for September for the Oaks at the massive prices, every single one of them is to win. Gutting when you get one beaten marginally though. The Last Samuri in the National two years ago was an example of that. Tough to take.
I’m also partial to a small stakes ‘mug’ multiple for races at Cheltenham. Every week I throw a few quid on a Yankee or a Canadian for Cheltenham. I start that in October. Only takes a few to win and a decent double picks up a nice return.
The answer to the question is…
(i)When they don’t run.
(ii) When they do run and the price is considerably shorter than the odds obtained.
People know that ante post betting comes with risk, but I think its important before placing a bet to identify what the actual risks are:
Target – Does the horse in question have a clearly defined Cheltenham target?
Trainer – Is the horse trained by someone who can easily switch a horses target?
Health – Is the horse coming back from an injury?
Ground – Is the horse ground dependent?
Cheltenham Form – Has the horse in question performed well at cheltenham previously?
Timing – Are you getting in ahead of the market?
Number of races – How many chances will you (and bookies) have to access the horse before the festival?On top of answering the above questions, other risks are age, trainer form, owners changing their mind, being saved for Punchestown/Aintree – I remember Champagne Fever being bitten on the day and not making it!
So there are tons of risks associated with Ante Post betting that lots of people will completely ignore. There are plenty of shrewd people who do ask the above questions and do well, so to claim ante post betting isn’t profitable is nonsense.
**written for cheltenham festival
You have just highlighted at least 12 good reasons why ante post is indeed very profitable …….for the bookmakers !
Ante-post betting is totally insignificant these days particularly when compared to day of the race betting. Punters and bookmakers both agree on this, the proof is in the pudding and the subject hardly merits the amount of airtime it receives both on television and print in the paper, I suppose they have to fill with something though.
Quotes for future events given out on the racing channels after many races are particularly tedious.
The only edge I can see with ante-post betting is if you have significant inside info and I would have to agree with what Ted Walsh said on the Sunday Forum the other week, that he likes to see them going around the parade ring on the day of the race, before parting with his money.
Ante-post betting is totally insignificant these days particularly when compared to day of the race betting. Punters and bookmakers both agree on this, the proof is in the pudding and the subject hardly merits the amount of airtime it receives both on television and print in the paper, I suppose they have to fill with something though.
Quotes for future events given out on the racing channels after many races are particularly tedious.
The only edge I can see with ante-post betting is if you have significant inside info and I would have to agree with what Ted Walsh said on the Sunday Forum the other week, that he likes to see them going around the parade ring on the day of the race, before parting with his money.
Bookmakers offer an AP market and punters smash in to the AP market, so to say punters and bookmakers both agree that AP betting is totally insignificant is a fairly nothing sentence.
Also think a lot of punters get lost with “value”. Seems so basic, but it will only be value if it wins/places. The amount of times i see people over the moon with their 16/1 as it is now 5/1 on the day, as if it is job done already and still a bit of a win, even if it doesn’t place. Very quick way to blind yourself to ante post, by thinking you have “won” by simply getting far better odds than are available on the day.
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Depends what you mean by that comment, Tommy.
Vast majority of horses should be quite significantly shorter on the day purely because there’s no risk of losing your stake if the horse does not turn up. ie If betting on day of race punters get their money back if on a non-runner.
However, unless a punter is losing a lot of money with ante-post non-runners (effectively destroying the apparent value of his/her other ante-post bets) in effect the punter has “won by simply getting far better odds than available on the day” with a 16/1 bet available @ 5/1 on the day. Because however a punter chooses his/her horses the aim of every punter should be to get “value”. ie Achieving “value” throughout a punter’s life means whether one particular 5/1 shot wins or loses doesn’t matter – achieving “value” means enough horses win to show a good profit… Achieving value is “job done”.
Completely agree and you have put it far better than I could have.
My point really was that you need to make sure enough of these bets are actually getting over the line and you are not just placing bets getting significantly better odds, which keep losing.Think your average punter also changes stakes for ante-post out of fear for not getting a run for your money, which can in turn effect your overall P&L.
No doubt the smart punter greens up before cheltenham and leaves themselves with a few free bets going into it, but i find it is extremely time consuming tracking all of these and does take a certain amount of knowledge to make it work.
Its definitely not insignificant or a bad way to punt
I can give plenty examples of the above if needed lol i have one coming up which in particular highlights this
If im betting weeks/months away i ALWAYS green out as soon as i can if i can (faugheen my most recent) if its the week off i usually hold off until the day ad get a feel for my position then
But it all comes down to the same as picking a winner on any given day,
You can be profitable at it if you can assess the information correctly, same as punting the day ofIts definitely not insignificant or a bad way to punt
I can give plenty examples of the above if needed lol i have one coming up which in particular highlights this
If im betting weeks/months away i ALWAYS green out as soon as i can if i can (faugheen my most recent) if its the week off i usually hold off until the day ad get a feel for my position then
But it all comes down to the same as picking a winner on any given day,
You can be profitable at it if you can assess the information correctly, same as punting the day ofIt’s not an opinion ham, it’s a fact.
The bookmakers pr’s like David Williams (ex Lads) and the young fellas, Uncle Simon & Uncle David at Corals have regularly told us over the years that ante post betting pales into insignificance when compared to day of the race betting. I’ve no reason to disbelieve them and it’s what I’ve always thought in recent years.
Is there any reason or benefit to them to tell lies?Good luck to you or anyone else who makes it pay but in general it’s a waste of time for the punter.
Yeats is right – ante post turnover is a tiny fraction of day-of-race business.
Aside from the biggest of the big events, most ante-post bookmaking is a windowdressing exercise with low limits as you only tend to attract informed money from those who know which horses will be taking part. We’re much more willing to take a position and trade with confidence on the day.
Though some (like VTC) seem to specialise on ante post racing with impressive results, I think those punters are in the minority.
I would agree totally with that Yeats, it is surely a waste of time for the vast majority. There are some very shrewd operators that I go racing with, but in general, they avoid Ante-Post. I can think of 1, maybe 2 lads on here who look like they make it pay. Look elsewhere online, there are not that many making it pay. There is no point lauding posters who regularly beat SP with their selections, if their selections nearly always lose anyway. That just makes them a poor tipster.
What does intrigue me though Ginger, is why ask? Why ask now? Have you noticed an upturn in your own Ante-Post profits? Have you noticed a downturn in your Ante-Post Profits? Do you have concerns about the Ante-Post punting of others on here? Do you know the answer to your original question? I must point out Ginger that I do not ask these questions with any malice, I am genuinely interested.
The answer to me seems straightforward enough, a good antepost bet is one that lines up on the day, and wins ahead of the SP.
I may be wrong but i thought yeats was addressing how bookies say its a waste of time in terms of how much they take antepost, not antepost betting as a whole, i totally disagree with you in terms of it being a waste of time and not making it pay, its a massive part of horse racing and is what builds up a race, its part of the buzz behind the big festivals, if these markets did not exist, horse racing would definitey be worse off
it is part of the buzz although clearly used by the racing media to hype these events.
in terms of who bets on ante-post it’s definitely more informed punters… people who post on forums like this for example. People like us. probably the vast majority of the people you see down the betting shops wouldn’t be able to tell you what’s running tomorrow let alone what’s running in several months time.
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