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Drifting like a barge. Opened 7/4 some places and now out to 6/1.
Il have to leave it alone after that
I’ve been really impressed by Red Jack and have him at 20s for the Supreme.
Think he will win here on his way to favouritism for that race.
A cracking day of racing.
barry has surprisingly deserted him for le richebourg
cant make my mind up on this. Thistlecrack being given 6 pounds would surely make him a good thing here if anything like back to his best, but the Tizzards do keep reminding us that this is a prep race for the King George, so cant see him being hard ridden.
No bet for me, but have had a little play on the 25/1 with skybet to win this, King George and Gold cup.
as much as stats are great and accessible nowadays, it can make you rely on them a bit too much and not trust whats right in front of you.
what my eyes saw was a horse win a G1 on the bridle by 57 lengths. I dont buy that every other horse in the race has run 30 pounds below their norm.
of course BDM loves the mud at Haydock, but to try and throw that win out like it was a mere fluke is surely madness. I straight away took some 8’s for the King George after.
As per my previous comments before the race, I was far from a BDM fan and thought he was a bit of a cliff to follow, but that performance has changed my mind.
never understood why people get really angst with ratings of these G1 horses. Not like they are going to be put in handicaps, so really, what does it matter.
Iv gone in on Thistlecrack following the good vibes from Tizzard camp. 4/1
Strange one in that you might see a little drift should YNWIMH beat him this Friday, wouldn’t overly concern me as long as thistlecrack travels well and finishes close. Think Scud will have been told to make sure he doesnt have too hard a race.
Should he win Friday, I reckon the odds will half.
For anyone interested, he is 25/1 to win the long distance hudle, king george and gold cup with skybet.
As mentioned previously in this thread, I wasn’t really a fan of BDM, had him as too unreliable and short of class for any group 1 outside of heavy at Haydock, but that was seriously impressive yesterday.
Been around long enough to have learnt my lesson that you have to be prepared to accept your first thoughts were wrong.
Would fancy him over might bite for the King George, just depends how tuned up Thistlecrack is imho.
Big season ahead for BDM and why not gold cup after that.
Don’t understand the calls for cue card to be retired, he’s just finished 2nd in a G1 race. Perhaps not the class anymore to be challenging for a gold cup, but think people get too emotionall about Cheltenham being the be all and end all of jumps racing.
It is a game of opinions after all and i guess neither of us get proved right unless he gets his ground in march, which i agree, is unlikely to happen. hopefully he can become a little less erratic though.
Cant ever see him getting near Sizing John, Thistlecrack, Djackadam, Might Bite or even Native River, but certainly happy to watch him try!
More money down the drain without getting a run for it
looking back, the signs were all there that he was going to get pulled. Personally i was swayed by Robbie Powers comments, so must learn my lesson here and ignore the jocks.
might be worth noting for anyone that Tizzard recently said he was going to keep fox norton out the way if SJ was on for the bonus, so i would perhaps expect him to now run in the king george (albeit plan might change if he wins the tingle creek).
no bet for me now as i couldn’t back either BDM or Cuecard at them odds and you are only going to get 2 places now.
very disappointing that the first big 3 miler of the season is filled with horses that would never trouble the Gold cup this season IMHO.
I hope not. I do not understand this rush to step Fox Norton up in trip all of a sudden.
Can still compete and win at the top 2 mile races.
form in the book for Sizing John on heavy and Soft, so i dont really get the drift (albeit i see it has now come back in to around 5/2).
had him at 5/2 and went back in at 3/1. Think it is great value on him. Done nothing wrong since being stepped up to 3 miles. Runs very well fresh and this been the target since the end of last season.
surprised at the support for Cue Card, given his last run, didnt think he was moving that well before the fall.
have to agree, i don’t see it all.
Went through all this last year i believe when Ruby made his comments that “6/1 for Douvan is crazy” and the ques started to form at bookies only for outrage when he was puled out.
Quite happy to take UDS on with Fox Norton.
Just goes to show these idiots that make out ruby is jumping off horses for fun.
Gutted for him especially with Faugheen out tomorrow
I am yet to be convinced that 3 miles is the right distance for him. Doesn’t seem to have ever gotten it. That run finishing 3rd to UKWIMH was a strange race and really he was never ridden to try and win, was ridden for a place.
I would still back him over 2’4/2’5 but never any further.
That all being said, was never traveling today, may have hated the going
thought the same after the race – he certainly doesn’t need any shorter than 2’4.
Would personally like to see him go RSA route, although that seems to be least likely at this stage if odds are anything to go on.
Not for 1 second do I think VVM is going to line up against Faugheen.
Campeador has everything to prove that he can compete in this class.
Jezki – I have always thought needs further than 2 miles to be at his best. Seems so odd to me to be watching the horse that had them great battles with hurricane fly, trying to cut it at a mile less, 2 years on.
Swamp Fox – had a long old season already, but would fancy him over the above two.
If Faugheen lines up, I suspect he wins and gets slashed in the champion hurdle market, which I will be quite happy with if it pushes others out as I suspect this will be quite a poor renewal.
cracking write up
Vieux Lion Rouge might be my one for this. I agree with your assessment that the national trip was/is perhaps a few furlongs too far for him.
Cant see why he wont turn up here, but will probably bet it on the day after I know the going.
That being said, I wouldn’t want to take much less than 12’s as his reappearance run (albeit in the Charlie Hall) I thought was quite poor and although i certainly didn’t expect him to win, would have expected him a lot closer give he has previously run very well first time out over a number of seasons previously.
as mentioned on another thread, I am a big Fox Norton Fan, so have happily taken some 14/1 on offer.
Should he not win at the weekend, i expect that to go out a little, which wont put me off and may go again at a bigger price.
Big doubts about those ahead of him in the market
Douvan – will he be fit / will he be stepped up in trip
Min – fitness worries and missing most of last season has more than a few questions to answer
Altior – i cant quite piece this story together, wont be suprised if he misses the season.
Great Field – may be stepped up. Think FN would get the better of him anyway.
perhaps too short now, but Fox Norton looks absolutely nailed on for this now IMHO.
good record when going fresh and could still be improving on last years very successful campaign.
5/4 round robin with evens Finians Oscar today paying what i think is a generous 7/2
have also taken FN for the CC at 14/1 as those ahead of him in the market (namely Altior, Min and dovan) all having doubts about them.
