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I’m not even sure you would buy that, Mark, that any Betfair winner didn’t stay the trip. Cue Card in his pomp won an attritional King George which, given a hot pace and easy ground is a much mores serious stamina test than it ever gets credit for.
King George is more of a test of stamina than some give it credit for, but 3m on good-soft is nothing like 3 miles 1 1/2 furlongs on heavy. People also under-estimate how heavy ground adds to the stamina test. In the Welsh National they often need to go slower than the Aintree National in order to get home.
Cue Card’s failure to stay the trip was not the main reason for Cue Card’s performance – beaten too far out for that. Below form for whatever reason, possibly age catching up with him. What am saying is failing to stay probably extended the winning distance by some way.
Value Is EverythingIf you take that argument to its natural conclusion, Mark – essentially that because one horse ran much faster than the others who got really tired trying to catch it – you could say that any loser in any similarly run race under any conditions did not stay. You could even argue it in a two mile race. It doesn’t hold up.
BDM is a vast improver. I will go in again on Might bite for the KG and will have a saver on BDM if it comes up soft,heavy. The winner of the KG comes from these two
It depends what you mean by ‘face value’, LD. Do you mean you believe he’ll never produce that again anywhere? Or is it specifically Cheltenham on good ground or maybe Kempton on good to soft?
I don’t think anyone would expect him to replicate that exactly away from Haydock and deep ground. But that doesn’t mean the performance should be criticised. If today’s race was run again next month – same field, same venue, same ground, what price would you offer Bristol De Mai?
You say, “Do I think Cue Card, Tea For Two & Outlander have performed anywhere near their best today, the answer is clearly no and whilst some of that is down to BDM taking them out of their comfort zone it cannot be all attributed to that (and yes it is possible for one or more horses not to run their respective races).”
We don’t know what Cue Card’s best is these days. Here’s what his trainer said:
“I think he’s run on a par with his other runs [at Haydock],” Colin Tizzard, his trainer said. “He’s just been beaten by a very good horse on the day. The winner blew the race away, really.”
You say it’s possible for one or more not to run their respective races. How many of the field do you believe did not run their race?
No coincidence to me that BDM has never come close to replicating the visual impression he does at Haydock (in testing ground) anywhere else on better ground for the simple reason that horses are more inconvenienced on testing ground than he is but on better ground he is found wanting in the top grade. It would be interesting if we got a heavy ground Gold Cup like the year Master Oats won as I am pretty sure BDM would probably win it and probably by a number of lengths.
Similarly if we had a re run of today’s race under the exact same conditions in a months time or at any other time, I wouldn’t oppose BDM regardless of who showed up as I don’t think there is a staying chaser that can cope with those conditions the way he can.
You are absolutely right that we don’t know what Cue Card’s best is these days but I would be confident in saying that I don’t think it is anywhere near hailing distance of his top official rating and Tizzard also said he had run similar to his previous runs against Tea For Two which we know is patently not true as he was 9.5L in front of him today as opposed to when he was less than 0.25L in front off him in last years KG and beaten a neck by him at Aintree.
So I don’t believe either of them have run their race, I suspect Outlander is better than his finishing position suggests and Traffic Fluide was never put in the race as he was trying the trip for the first time and as such was flatted by his finishing position.
I do believe BDM is a good horse and in those conditions I am not sure there is any horse that could beat him but on better ground away from Haydock, his form tells you he is not the same horse – Kempton (especially if we get a heavy ground race – not unheard of) may prove me wrong but I could equally see him finishing 3rd or 4th with no excuses.
Fair enough, LD, but as I said, I’m not arguing he’ll reproduce that elsewhere. My point is that it was an extraordinary performance; from what I can tell a history-making performance, yet many seem to be reacting as though the ground explains everything. That disregards the fact that there have been thousands of horses before him who were heavy ground specialists and who have tried their hearts out over many many thousands of miles and fences and never, to my knowledge, got near to what he accomplished today.
It’s fair to say I think that all other winners at Haydock today could be said to be heavy ground horses yet all their winning margins added together still leave them 7 short of Bristol De Mai And none of them faced grade one rivals. By any logical analysis, it was an astonishing performance.
I have also backed BDM for the Gold Cup at 33s which is of far more interest to me than for this race. I think he’s improving. I think he may just absolutely rout them. I can see him coming off the final bend on the bridle and absolutely cruising.
33s for the GC looks even better than I had hoped after that.
That is a superb performance
Was an excellent performance in a grade 1, deserves credit for what he done, but ill be totally against him in every race that isnt a slog and at haydock
He is excellent in his sphere, but until he proves he can do it away from haydock on decent ground, i still wouldnt take 33s just now (just my own personal opinion obviously plenty would)
Highly doubtful we will ever see a G1 won by that far again that is for sure – wonder if NTD will try and learn how to do a rain dance after today!!!!
If you take that argument to its natural conclusion, Mark – essentially that because one horse ran much faster than the others who got really tired trying to catch it – you could say that any loser in any similarly run race under any conditions did not stay. You could even argue it in a two mile race. It doesn’t hold up.
No, that’s not the “natural conclusion” at all, Joe. Horses can get really tired through not being good enough, but there could be another reason for getting really tired other than raw ability (eg Doesn’t act on the ground). However, if a horse does not stay it does not stay.
Value Is EverythingEven as a horse on the way down, do you really think Cue Card did not stay? As you said yourself in a recent post, one thing that tends to improve as horses age is stamina. Look how he battled back today to get second. That might be a very tired horse but it’s not a non stayer.
I suspect Bristol De Mai’s sectionals in the ground will be something to see. He had a couple of them at it turning down the back on circuit two, and had them all under the cosh after jumping five out – that’s an awful long way from home and I believe he just burned them out.
A shame Sizing John wasn’t in the field to give us a better measure of what Bristol De Mai achieved today.
The Racing Post have awarded Bristol De Mai 185 for winning.
I will bet good money that this figure is amateur hour horseshit.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
If the Betfair Chase had been run at Ascot yesterday,what would the result have been then?
I suspect Bristol De Mai’s sectionals in the ground will be something to see
Joe, there was no doubt that to the eye Bristol De Mai looked very impressive, when I looked at what he achieved yesterday on the clock, his speed figure was only 128, which on it’s own would not be good enough to win the King George.
Others from yesterday:
Min – 134
Top Notch – 133
Sir Valentino – 124
Lil Rockerfeller – 103Highest recent speed figure:
Faugheen – 143
Mike.
As mentioned previously in this thread, I wasn’t really a fan of BDM, had him as too unreliable and short of class for any group 1 outside of heavy at Haydock, but that was seriously impressive yesterday.
Been around long enough to have learnt my lesson that you have to be prepared to accept your first thoughts were wrong.
Would fancy him over might bite for the King George, just depends how tuned up Thistlecrack is imho.
Big season ahead for BDM and why not gold cup after that.
Don’t understand the calls for cue card to be retired, he’s just finished 2nd in a G1 race. Perhaps not the class anymore to be challenging for a gold cup, but think people get too emotionall about Cheltenham being the be all and end all of jumps racing.
That really surprises me, Mike. He had a couple of them well off the bridle turning down the back and all of them properly under the cosh from five out. Do you think the ground wasn’t as bad as some considered it?
Do you think the ground wasn’t as bad as some considered it?
The hurdles course at Haydock I had at -0.68s/f (soft) and the chase I had at -1.04s/f (heavy).
To put the race into context, Tea For two who finished 4th yesterday, earned a speed figure of 94, his previous 3 speed figures were 99, 118 and 97.
Racing Post Ratings as Steve mentioned above, awarded Bristol De Mai a rating of 185, now this to me is a serious case of brainfarts.
Mike.
Would fancy him over might bite for the King George, just depends how tuned up Thistlecrack is imho.
Daryl Jacob made interesting comments after the race yesterday, saying the horse has never won on good ground and needs heavy ground. With this in mind, he won’t be doing anything at Kempton and even at 8/1 he’s not a bet.
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