Betfair Chase 2017

Dropping back in, not on the subject of the Betfair but just to say I’m very confident that Bristol De Mai goes on any ground. His action and demeanour when galloping gives no indication that he is not enjoying himself. Having rewatched all his videos last night, I suspect he might even prefer going right handed.

He’s definitely matured since last season – his jumping much more composed although a bit of polish would help. His issue in top races on goodish ground is that he hasn’t got a quick gear change. He travels really strongly but he is a touch one-paced, or at least tends to stay on rather than find anything resembling a turn of foot.

I watched him come round the top of the hill at Cheltenham a few times and he looked less than comfortable with the undulations/bends – am unsure which. Got done for toe in the Gold Cup when the pace quickened but was gradually picking up again – he wouldn’t have won – when he made a real bad mistake at the last almost unseating Jacob. Despite his apparent discomfort around at least sections of the track, in a soft ground Gold Cup he’d have a very serious chance.

But soft ground Gold Cups are rare this century although the only two there have been were in the past 5 years. Even easy ground would give him a chance much greater than his current odds reflect, assuming of course that his jumping holds up.

Fencing was my one criticism of him last year – he had an unusually awkward way with his front legs sometimes and watching again I wonder if that was linked to his head movement when in the air. He showed an uncommon trait when not right at a fence of raising his head quite sharply mid-jump, perhaps in an attempt to rebalance himself. You sometimes see it in horses who’ve made a bad error, but last season he did it comparatively regularly. It’s a reflex that must burn up a fair amount of energy and that’s aside from upsetting his rhythm. There is very little sign of it in his two runs this year and I’m confident his jumping has improved markedly wile still being open to some polish.

Although he is not ground dependent in that he cannot act – soft ground on a flat track lets him make the best of that relentless one pace he has and, vitally, it takes that change of gear out of the others. Rhythm is essential to him in performing at his best (I’m confident it is not ground or Haydock in particular that favour him; it’s being away from others, preferably in front and being allowed to settle into that high cruising speed. Flat tracks facilitate rhythmical striding and soft ground robs his rivals of their key weapon against him – a turn of foot at critical stages of a race. I’m certain that given those conditions at any suitable track he will take a world of beating. If Might Bite is restrained in the KG as he was at Sandown, Bristol De Mai’s ‘Haydock Specialist’ aura could easily see him get an uncontested lead at Kempton.

That Haydock reputation is dumbfounding the bookies as well as most of the press and punters (who seem to forget he did pretty much the same at Wetherby in what his trainer openly admitted was a prep race for the Betfair). Kempton will be ideal for him. If the ground is proper soft or heavy I’ll be having my biggest bet for an awful long time.