- This topic has 255 replies, 44 voices, and was last updated 8 years, 5 months ago by
.
- Posts
Shame for the race, not that my opinion means anything, but i find it hard to believe there saying the ground is the concern
hes won multiple times on soft and at the highest level on heavy, ran some excellent 2nds to douvan on soft ground alsoThat dosent mean he isnt better on good ground, but he evidently handles it soft/heavy, mind boggling pulling him from such a weak race…
“Handles” heavy, yes Ham. But that Heavy ground Grade 1 was as a novice hurdler. Shown a lot of improvement since and best two performances have come on goodish ground. They might have felt to win a Grade 1 of the Betfair Chase type the horse has to be very near its best – very near optimum conditions. Did only beat Empire Of Dirt on “soft”. This was likely to be bottomless, on his reappearance and against better rivals; presenting a thorough stamina test.
Value Is EverythingI totally agree that this is an all different test, but saying he dosent handle the ground is nonsense and being a pretty week renewal factored in, i think its the wrong decision not to run him (as i previously said i was already on cue card at 6/1 so im not pocket talking) but like i said they obviously know better than i do in regards to the horse
If he was really disliking it on sat, just pull him up, didnt have to be a hard race if he wasnt enjoying it…
Robbie powers exact words on the matter ginge
“It was Alan’s wish to go for the £1m bonus. Sizing John is a better horse on better ground but that won’t stop him running on Saturday.
If that isnt connections saying he will run i dont know what is…
I was going by what the trainer said, Ham.
But if those are his exact words then Robbie Power should not have said it, questions should be asked and action taken.Value Is EverythingJessie also said that the horse isn’t a great traveller and doesn’t settle well in a strange box overnight. Probably doesn’t make too much difference once in a season for the big one ie Gold Cup; but she didn’t sound thrilled at the prospect of doing it three times and potentially giving him 3 hard races (Betfair due to ground and KG+GC due to quality opposition) during those times of mental stress in one season with the important race being the last of the 3. Stress whether mental or physical= increased susceptibility to infection + increased risk of stomach ulcers which are common and decrease performance. Better to win the John Durkan or Lexus and be tucked up in his own stable at night as a better prep for March.
I also wonder whether that could be a factor in Douvan not being sent over the water till March last year. They didn’t say anything about him being a homebird; but connections did praise UDS for being a hardy wee nailer travelling over for the Clarence House, travelling home again when it was washed out then making the return journey very soon after for the rescheduled race and not turning a hair.
Jessie also said that the horse isn’t a great traveller and doesn’t settle well in a strange box overnight.
Oh what next?
Next she’ll be saying Sizing John doesn’t go well at tracks starting with the letter “H”.
Horse that won the Gold Cup isn’t a great traveller. Pull the other one.
Reading between the lines, it was only the late owner that wanted to go. Jessie’s always been against it and couldn’t face the thought.
Gone from making excuses for connections to thinking, hang the …….
Value Is EverythingCue Card’s price varies from 7/4 to 7/2
This is due to some firms just not quoting Sizing John and I must admit that I wouldn’t run the horse in bottomless ground myself. I feel there must be some doubt for a horse with more important targets to aim for.
In the circumstances I just had a small bet on Outlander at 10/1. There probably isn’t a lot between them on the gutters and I would rather risk a tenner to win £100 than put £70 on Bristol De Mai at 6/4 to win a fiver more than that.
Outlander 10/1 for me.My post crossed with Joe’s, I had backed Outlander a fair bit earlier but he was still showing at 10/1 just before I started posting. The Racing Post had nothing up about Sizing John missing the race when I started my post and it was only a couple of firms who were not quoting Harrington’s runner at the time.
It was more Cue Card’s disparity in odds that I felt relevant at the time.
If you just bring the page for all ante post bets up, it still shows 3/1 Cue Card and Sizing John 5/2, as if he is still in the race. If you go to the specific page for the race however, you find two of the bubbly firms have Sizing John at 5/2 and that there is NO 3/1 on Cue Card. I only noticed Sizing John was out about half an hour go, as just glancing at all the ante post markets on the one page he was still shown in the betting.
Oddschecker really should be doing better than this.
Anyway, the way the affair has played out is less than satisfactory yet again.
I think Sizing John may end up another “One and you’re done” Gold Cup winner.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Maybe the most telling quote was her admission that she feared he might not recover from his hard races last season. Something in his homework or demeanour must have worried her.
Neither Outlander or Shantou Flyer have a jockey booked to ride them.
I think neither make the final cut but we find out at 10am tomorrow. I fear neither either way.
Think the final field will be:
BRISTOL DE MAI
CUE CARD
TEA FOR TWO
TRAFFIC FLUIDEI don’t think Cue Card will complete the race never mind get competitive.
Tea For Two has a history of running badly on his 2nd run of the season and was a long way behind traffic fluide last time (admittedly the shorter trip was against him but connections were at a loss to explain the bad run and said he was well beat beforehand the trip would have become an issue). Although he handles testing ground he is better when good is in the description. I think it’s possible this wont make the final decs but don’t fear it if it does.French breds have an excellent record in this race (KAUTO winning it 4 times clearly helps with that stat, interestingly no Irish horse has ever won the race which is just a little confidence booster in me being against outlander if he does run).
Race looks a match to me between the French breds -TRAFFIC FLUIDE v BRISTOL DE MAI.
Traffic being out of ASTRABAD will relish conditions and will stay til the cows come home. Superb jumper who could have this field in big big trouble as they turn for home.
Forget all runs last season the preparation was abysmal with setback after setback.Saturday we see the real TRAFFIC FLUIDE the horse who has always been considered a very special horse by Gary Moore.
That’s my opinion anyway. So looking forward to this race.
Oh what next?
Next she’ll be saying Sizing John doesn’t go well at tracks starting with the letter “H”.
Horse that won the Gold Cup isn’t a great traveller. Pull the other one.
Reading between the lines, it was only the late owner that wanted to go. Jessie’s always been against it and couldn’t face the thought.
Gone from making excuses for connections to thinking, hang the …….
I believe the deterimental effects of stress may be more marked in the medium term eg gastric ulcer. s than the short term. In SJ’s novice chasing year his first trip across the water was to the Arkle. He finished 7l behind Douvan. Fox Norton was 3rd and The Game Changer 4th, 6l behind SJ. He then went to Aintree, beaten by Arzal and L’Ami Serge. After these two English races he ended his season at Punchestown, beaten 22l by Douvan and 11l by The Game Changer.
Of course there may have been another reason for the dropoff in form eg wind starting to go and needing a wind op in summer (don’t know if ever had wind probs or surgery just speculating). But it is interesting to note that Jessie started him off last season over Christmas in Ireland, allowing him to be whipped by Douvan rather than travelling him to a weak Desert Orchid at Kempton. After his GC win, with the benefit of not going to Aintree as in his novice year, he performed better at Punchestown than in 2016, beating Djakadam…but only just.
If he is a stressy horse and a bad traveller then hither and yon, especially in the winter weather is not ideal. Strong winds are forecast this weekend. The Dublin/Liverpool ferry takes 8hours plus some drive and waiting time either end. Dub/Holyhead is 3.5hours on the big boat but it sometimes can’t dock in strong westerlies and you end up sitting offshore for hours waiting for the wind to drop. I’ve had that dubious pleasure and I wasn’t on my feet on a lorry.
I very much agree with you re: clarity- would have been much more helpful if she’d said “I was never that keen, it wouldn’t have been my choice of race to start his campaign and we won’t run him if there’s an H in the going description”. In fairness they have pulled him now rather than waiting for final decs.
The other factor in this decision may be Our Duke – JH was clear from the outset that they were going to be kept apart until the GC. OD was going to be kept in Ireland (in search of heavier ground) whilst SJ went to England to chase the owner’s wish of the £1m bonus. Now Our Duke has had his back operated on there is no need to traipse SJ to England, especially to have a terrible journey on a ferry for a slog-fest in a bog that could finish him for the season.
I agree though, there has been something about the vibes re SJ this early season. The horse came back in as big as a bull – see their Twitter feed to see just how fat he was. Plus he’s clearly taken a lot of work to get ready for a race. There has been mention of multiple racecourse gallops and still he’s seen to be going to come on a lot for a race. Hopefully he’ll prove me wrong, but that thrilling Punchestown race, on top of the GC, was an awfully hard race for a 7yo. Perhaps he’s just said ‘enough’ already? Alternatively, I keep thinking, ‘remember Denman’, & how they struggled to work out what was up with him when he came back in again after his GC. Ditto Sprinter. Sometimes it’s not that they won’t but that they can’t.
Food for thought Titus. I wonder a bit about the summer weight thing. She said he put on 50kg. I remember Faugheen’s connections (maybe Ruby?) saying about a seasonal reappearance- and I think it was when he was beaten by NC in the Morgiana- “Oh he was so fat we could hardly get the saddle on, haha”.
Why don’t they catch up the horses during the summer and put a measuring tape on them and put them on poorer keep/maintain several miles walking exercise per day if they’re getting too chubby? Or is it better for them to be completely let down and bunged out to snooze and eat all day in a lush field all summer and just shift the weight after? Obviously the ones that have wind ops and anything that finished lame or jarred need rested but what about the others?
After all, I doubt if Mo Farah lies on the sofa stuffing his face for months after the Olympics
More money down the drain without getting a run for it
looking back, the signs were all there that he was going to get pulled. Personally i was swayed by Robbie Powers comments, so must learn my lesson here and ignore the jocks.
might be worth noting for anyone that Tizzard recently said he was going to keep fox norton out the way if SJ was on for the bonus, so i would perhaps expect him to now run in the king george (albeit plan might change if he wins the tingle creek).
no bet for me now as i couldn’t back either BDM or Cuecard at them odds and you are only going to get 2 places now.
very disappointing that the first big 3 miler of the season is filled with horses that would never trouble the Gold cup this season IMHO.
I totally agree that this is an all different test, but saying he dosent handle the ground is nonsense and being a pretty week renewal factored in, i think its the wrong decision not to run him (as i previously said i was already on cue card at 6/1 so im not pocket talking) but like i said they obviously know better than i do in regards to the horse
If he was really disliking it on sat, just pull him up, didnt have to be a hard race if he wasnt enjoying it…
It’s not nonsense. He hasn’t proven he can stay 3 miles on Heavy, his better performances are on decent ground.
Soft isn’t Heavy. Plenty of horses who win on Soff don’t win in boggy conditions like Haydock.
heavy at haydock means its HEAVY,not a jump race fan but all races will take some getting on saturday
I railed against the Bradstocks last year for running Coneygree in desperate ground in this so I have no problem with any trainer protecting a horse there are any doubts over.
On a separate note, if the Jockey Club want to keep this as the showcase start to the £1m treble, they’ll have to move it. There’d be a fight to keep it in the north so maybe down the road to Aintree where, historically, they’d have a better chance of decent ground.’Good’ has not featured in the going description at the current venue since 2011 when it was good to soft.
Why not run it at the Becher meeting? Becher Chase has been GS, S, GS last 3 runnings. Haydock’s 3 Betfairs will be heavy, heavy and soft in 2015. Aintree can get heavy too but I think the ground drains better and, percentage-wise would be the better call.
Or move it to Sandown. It could be more likely the £1m project be quietly dropped altogether.
It’s not nonsense. He hasn’t proven he can stay 3 miles on Heavy, his better performances are on decent ground.Soft isn’t Heavy. Plenty of horses who win on Soff don’t win in boggy conditions like Haydock.
Getting a distance on heavy is different from acting on heavy, his past results show he acts on heavy….. he wasnt pulled out because he wouldnt get 3m he was pulled because he “wont like the ground” but his statistics say he dosent mind the ground as much as its being played on
Would he get the distance on the ground? Jessie,robbie nor anyone else can say that he wouldnt as he hasnt ran over 3m on heavy and they obviously wont have ran him over a trip at home…..
If the owner was still with us, he would be running on saturday and there would be no more questions asked.
And potato, jockeys are all booked in including outlander and shantou flyer
I hope cue card wins not just for my own bet as it would be a good final season result for him to take this
Six declared, so I should get a run for my money with Outlander.
I am by no means confident but in the conditions I couldn’t take the odds of Bristol De Mai and I wouldn’t be confident of Cue Card getting round even if he stands up. Bristol De Mai is likely to pour it on in front and I still have memories of Cue Card stopping to nothing behind Silviniaco Conti in the King George.
I doubt this race will have any impact on the Gold Cup or The King George. Might Bite should rest easy on Saturday watching this race between checking the football scores.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
hes won multiple times on soft and at the highest level on heavy, ran some excellent 2nds to douvan on soft ground also
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.