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Thistlecrack v Unowhatimeanharry
2015 winner v 2016 winner
Neither of whom were actually favourite when they won, surprisingly.
My head says Thistlecrack but my heart says Harry. It’s even money the former, 7/4 the latter and I’m sure fans of both will say that the odds on offer for their horse is a gift from the gods.
I’m a lucky boy in that I’ll be at Newbury on Friday to see this titanic clash and can’t wait.
Let’s hope they both turn up, and both are on form.
Fascinating race if they both turn up. If TC is back to his best he’ll win but the doubt over this and it been his first run of the season may mean it worth taking him on. I’m with you Charles heart says Harry, except that I’ll be working Friday and probably won’t have a bet. I’ll try to refrain from looking at the results and watch it later.
Took the 2’s on Harry earlier…just can’t see Thistlecrack coming back from that injury and beating him first time out…always thought Thistlecrack was beating a weak division…if he comes off the bridle, like I think he will…I’m not sure there will be enough there to out battle a race fit Harry!
I’d sooner take a chance and throw a few quid on Colin’s Sister at 16’s Betfair (only 8’s 365) than backing Thistlecrack at evs…
She’s a bit to find in ratings but did have at Wetherby where she did it nicely…
Thistlecrack if anywhere near his best will win
That being said, FTO after an injury, a very very tough race against MC,Could be a different TC this year, evs isnt for me, but if on song he will win easily
Too many iffs to take evs, should be fascinating though
Ill just be watching, will be a good watch
Until he proves he has recovered from his injury you have to side with a race fit Harry and take it on the chin if TC does win.
I’ll probably back Thistlecrack at Evens here as he’s by far the greatest horse Harry has come up against.
To be honest, having backed both already for Cheltenham at 5/1 and 6/1, I hope they finish 20 lengths clear of the 3rd and both look like superstars.
That outcome is best for racing too I think.
cant make my mind up on this. Thistlecrack being given 6 pounds would surely make him a good thing here if anything like back to his best, but the Tizzards do keep reminding us that this is a prep race for the King George, so cant see him being hard ridden.
No bet for me, but have had a little play on the 25/1 with skybet to win this, King George and Gold cup.
Couldn’t get involved in this race with anyones money.
1) TC getting 6 pds, how far “should” he win by?
2) TC coming off a lay-off and possibly an ability-threatening injury?
3) Technically, this is a pipe-opener for him, but the way he races, i am not sure it would matter as he’s pretty exhuberant…Leaving this alone happily
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Why is he getting 6 lbs?
Is this because he didn’t win a hurdle race last season?
On his best form Thistlecrack would walk it, but being his reappearance after an injury connections won’t be too downheartened if beaten and might need the run… And Unowhatimeanharry having to give up to 7 lbs… This is not a two horse race. Wholestone and Colin’s Sister improving and getting 3 and 7 lbs respectively. Taquin Du Seuil only 3 1/2 lengths away from winner Yanworth at levels in the Aintree Stayers Hurdle final start, so that brings him in to consideration getting 6 lbs from UNWIMH. Even Ptit Zig on Sandown form, failing by only 1 1/2 lengths to give L’Ami Serge 8 lbs – if you could rely on him showing that sort of form would almost be favourite getting 6 from UNWIMH. Of course you can’t rely on him, well beaten behind Colin’s Sister and Wholestone at Wetherby last time, but on the other hand inconsistency means can throw in an odd howler and therefore can’t be ruled out bouncing back.
Value Is EverythingThe vibes coming from the Tizzards have been sounding very confident. I do think Thistlecrack’ll win the more I mull this race over.
I have had a career interest in Colin’s Sister purely because my uncle Colin died in his forties and I decided to follow her in his memory.
I thought that was a good personal best for her last time out, having come on from her days in bumpers and races at 2 and a half miles, or so, over hurdles, she seemed to record an improved showing at her first attempt over 3 miles.
I thought it was worth more than the 4 lbs raise to 148 that the Racing Post gave her. I notice that the official handicapper has her on 151.
Last season I pointed out that Thistlecrack had not reached his Hurdles rating over fences. When checking today I see that the handicapper has given the Tizzard horse a new Hurdle Rating. Previously he was rated 174 but that figure has been revised to 170.
Looking at Unowhatimeanharry, the official handicapper has him on a rating of 167. On the face of those ratings, if they mean anything at all, it seems hard to predict that Thistlecrack could “Walk” the race. The fact that Thistlecrack had the setback and comes here conceding a run closes that gap in theory at least.
The Racing Post has 10lbs between Thistlecrack and Unowhatimeanharry on their highest ratings, a figure than still leaves scope for it to be tight enough given Thistlecrack’s negatives but the 6 lbs concession puts me off the Fry horse, who somehow doesn’t totally convince me, even though he helped bale me out a bit at Cheltenham in 2016.
I think I will stick with Zamorston and side with Colin’s Sister at bigger odds for a fun interest but while recognising this is tougher company.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I have ante-post bets on Thistlecrack for the Gold Cup and Unowhatimeanharry for the Stayers Hurdle. Granted the former’s form is way ahead and might win with a lot in hand; but this is his reappearance after injury and the latter’s giving weight – so neither look value to me at current prices. Colin Tizzard is quite Bullish about his charge, but he’s an optimist by nature and I wouldn’t expect anything else from him. Taqin Du Seiul isn’t out of it on his 3 1/2 lengths 4th to Yanworth at Aintree final start, but Jonjo isn’t yet in top form and lacks potential to improve. Lil Rockerfeller well below form in the Wetherby race, but the improved pair that beat him could be under-estimated. Colin’s Sister (whose trainer remains in excellent form) particularly impressed me with the way she moved in to the race… And The second there – Wholestone is 3 lbs better off and progressive. Considering the weights – if either one continues their upward curve they could easily be right up with Unowhatimeanharry. Added to that, there’s not a great deal of pace in the race. With Johnson on board on the outsider Beer Goggles he might try and get a soft lead. If not, Thistlecrack may need to make his own running and will he want a fast pace/hard race on reappearance with the King George coming up? Slowish pace could contribute to an upset.
Colin’s Sister 12/1 each way
Wholestone 12/1 each wayValue Is EverythingA very interesting race!! Surely TC will not be fully wound up for this and Evens seems a crazy price to me and I shall be laying it!!
I have backed WHOLESTONE e/w at 12/1 and Harry win at 2/1 and I fell that the only thing that may stop one of these two winning is CS who may be the improver over the trip having proved she stays last time!!
Good Luck guys
From my blog:
A great race for this stage of the season with the mighty Thistlecrack back at one of his favourite tracks. He’s 2 from 2 here as is his main market rival Unowhatimeanharry who is 6 from 7 in this ground to Thistlecrack’s 3 from 7 (the hurdle track going is soft). This is their first clash and, oddly for such a specialist division, the only two horses who have previously met here are Colin’s Sister and Wholestone.
Thistlecrack’s long absence leaves blanks to fill in: he was off injured so, is he fully recovered? And will he be race fit, or should I say win fit? The upside of that lengthy absence means connections have chosen to bring him back in a hurdle whose conditions mean that he receives 6lbs from Unowhatimeanharry and 3 from Wholestone. Were this a handicap, he’d be giving weight to every rival.
If he’s fit and hurdling-sharp (the latter quite unlikely) he’d win this comfortably which he might well do. But Unowhatimeanharry will give him a race. Fit from a recent smooth victory, high class and ruthlessly consistent, Unowhatimeanharry’s yard is in better form than that of Thistlecrack’s whose handler Tizzard has a strike rate of 20% versus Harry Fry’s 36% (past 14 days).
But, but, but . . . This is not a two-horse race, Wholestone is another consistent horse. He’s 2 from 5 on soft going; this is his track debut and his yard has the same strike rate as Tizzard’s. But Wholestone got spanked last time by Colin’s Sister who was making her first attempt at the trip. She travelled strongly throughout that Wetherby race and on taking it up two out she quickly went a couple of lengths clear – often the sign of a quality animal – before running around a bit and I’d say Brennan will hold onto her a fair bit longer tomorrow.
Colin’s Sister gets the mare’s allowance meaning she gets weight from all rivals, albeit only a pound from Thistlecrack. Her yard is going strong on a 33% strike rate, she’s 4 from 5 on the ground; this is her track debut but she is 4 from 7 left handed. She’s improving fast and is thoroughly unexposed at the trip and I’m happy to take a chance with her at around 10/1.
Should really be a watching race only this one, but after chewing over Colin’s Sister & Wholestone, I went with the former. She was a nice winner last time at Wetherby, and the mares allowance could be crucial in seeing her make the 2, should things not go according to plan for one of the big 2. 11’s for a small each way interest.
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