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All he did was drag his back legs through the fence a little
As you asked Fists I went back and watched what he did – I was watching the race again when a champion hurdle winning trainer came into the room – Fooking hell he said, I’m surprised he didn’t break his back.
Left the video running to hear what the pundits said afterwards – Richard Pitman said the horse must have been really badly winded after the mistake – do you think you’re a better judge than him? I’m too young to remember, but I’m told he was stable jockey to Fred Winter at around about the time that nobody would put you up on one?
Nick
Ruby would probably have layed you any price you like, as he said after the race "The horses was running on empty before we got to the fence".
I think we shouldn’t take jockey’s comments at face value – but ask what is going through their minds at the time they speak. Walsh has been hearing since the Betfair Chase at Haydock in November stuff like "didn’t Kauto jump well for Sam" "He’s never jumped like that for Ruby" and after the Gold Cup "Kauto didn’t jump like he did for Sam at Haydock" and after Thursday "Kauto’s jumping is gone again – I think Sam will be on all the horses next year"
And now the best chaser of them all at Ditcheat makes one of the worst blunders you’ll ever see (I will be surprised if he hasn’t done something to his back, he wasn’t moving at all right afterwards) two out when upsides the eventual winner in a Grade 1 – do you think Ruby is going to come in and say "I would have won if it wasn’t for that horrendous mistake" or "the horse was beaten anyway the mistake was that of a tired horse".
Or: why its silly to call Master Minded ‘a 186 horse’ rather than a horse who has achieved one ‘186 performance’ (and has lots of potential).
I think what you have written there is the nub of the whole argument that blew up on this forum after Phil Smith rated Master Minded 186, Denman 185, Neptune Collonges 176 after their Cheltenham performances.
I defended the hikes – and still do. I now realise where a lot of you were coming from, in that you didn’t dispute the merit of the performance, but thought one race was not enough evidence to justify the hike. However, you are wrong, because a horse capable of running to 186, 185, 176 etc, deserves to be rated as such, until such time as evidence shows he isn’t capable of doing so anymore. How would you feel, say, if you owned a 110 rated handicapper, who was set to race against a similar weighted rival who had achieved a 130 performance last time out, even though that rival had never achieved anything like that previously?
There are others, of course, who simply wouldn’t have rated the Cheltenham races as highly, and I find it harder to argue against them, it being simply a case of my opinion (and the handicapper’s) against theirs (for now).
To work out races to 100% is possible although of course there has to be a margin for error.
GingeThat comment proves that despite all your bluster about people “not understanding value” in fact it is YOU that doesn;t understand!
I can work any race out to 100% in minutes, been doing it for 15 years so nothing special there….the prices will only reflect MY opinion though, and only days of study would make that opinion worthy….how could one (as DN claims to) do that for every race every day?
As i keep trying to tell you, the crux is, whether you are consistently putting horses in your tissue that are going off at significantly over those odds. And then, on top of that, are enough of those actually winning to put you in profit.You are taking too simplistic a view – like someone who has been heard a lesson from the Bible, and become a born-again Christian, their faith in God is unshakeable, but it is because they are not questioning what they are newly espousing.
Here is something for you to consider – if a horse is in your tissue at 5/2, and it is on offer at 4/1, you back it and it wins……did you get value? Are you on your way to being a pro punter? Or was it really at 6/1 chance anyway (because they win 1 in 7 remember ginge) and you just got lucky? Because if it’s the latter mate, start saying your prayers, you’re on your way to doing your gonads.
but making it pay lies in how accurate your tissues are….we can all make 100% books, easy maths, but do the horses that you got as under in yours consistently do well? Ive no evidence that DN or ginger’s do, they just keep saying that you have to make 100% tissues…..well thats the obvious bit, so put a few up in the mornings lads and lets see how you do.
Not another anti-Nevison thread.
Anyone who does not understand the mathematics of betting will have problems understanding how Dave Nevison works. Anyone who does understand it will know exactly how he makes a profit.
Ginge
FFS ginge stop droning on about value. Children of about 12 understand the concept of probablilty, and converting percentage chance into fractions (or odds). It used to be taught in Maths classes when I was in form one.
The art is whether your tissues are consistently more accurate than the bookies ones, and in this day and age, of betfair making the tissues for them, and the betfair tissues being so pure (ie, not just the product of one man’s opinion) you just can;t make money like that. Hence the brown rings under his eyes, the scruffy look, the slightly dazed appearance, and the multiple appearances on RUK to pay his rent.Flash..it’s no different to Paul Nicholls and his owners cherry picking the best young horses from France each spring. Denman and Master Minded unknown ? To you maybe.
Coolmore bought Excellent Art privately and Myboycharlie was secured after winning the Angelsey Stakes for someone else. Invasor was poached from Uruguay by Sheikh Hamdan. Your posts are utter nonsense.
Couldn’t put it better myself. Great post, especially the last line.
Utter hypocrisy and lack of intelligence..
About 15 moderators on this fast-disintegrating site and they allow this to stand.
I thought Casablanca Minx got him out of trouble actually. It was obvious from over 1f out that the leader, with his rider’s whip in his right hand, was going to keep drifting until he hit the rail – Master Evans ought to have shown more awareness in predicting this IMO but left it until he had been crossed before switching around – at which point the horse showed a pretty electric turn of foot for a low grade performer and, as I said, bailed the young man out.
Still, I grant that he did well to settle the horse and has a good sense of timing – he just needs to develop the ability to predict what other horses are about to do if he is to move on to the next level.
After what I saw happen to East Tycoon today water jumps simply must be done away with. I cannot believe that in this day and age of safety being paramount fences are being dolled off left right and centre due to the risk of low sun on one hand and on the other we are still asking horses to jump something akin to a booby trap.
These new numbers appear to be a performance rating judged on one race. Has Kauto Star gone from the best chaser around to the third best by nearly half a stone in the space of one race? I’m not sure.
Two races, I think you’ll find (QM and GC)
Phil Smith got caught up in the hype.
Ginge
What an idiotic thing to say.
I have read on a few threads now you banging on about how Kauto didn’t run his race and how Denman has been over-rated as a result.
How has last year’s Gold Gup worked out?
2nd- Exotic Dancer, done nothing all year
3rd- Turpin Green, matched in running at 65 to win a 3-runner egg & spoon race at Haydock where the leader stopped to nothing and the danger fell
4th – Monkerhostin, done nothing
5th – Cane Brake – who?
6th – State of Play, done nothing.
I could go on.
He didn’t beat this lot out of sight, he won by 2.5, 2.5, 5, 0.75 and 0.5, and the rest were all pretty close up.
I reckon he achieved about as much in finishing 7 lengths behind Denman on Friday.I am a massive fan of Kauto Star, but Paul Nicholls has said he was beaten by a better horse, the official handicapper says he was beaten by a better horse, so why should you know any better than the rest of us?
I cannot believe some of what’s been written on here…..disappointing?
I have been watching racing since 1985 and I have these last two days seen two of the most impressive performances during that time.
Denman was simply awesome today and I think Phil Smith is spot on, Kauto hasn’t run much below his best at all being as he never jumps with much fluency anyway, and he was still getting from one side to the next very quickly today as he always does. As for 3m 2f maybe not being Denman’s trip, believe me this horse would stay 4m if he was asked to, today was just a question of Sam Thomas letting him use his massive stride and asking him to lengthen fully 5/6 furlongs from home (between 5 and 4 out) that broke the heart of Kauto and if he had held onto Denman longer then trust me the horse would stay much further. All he does is gallop at this amazing cruising speed. I don’t think Kauto will ever reverse the form and as far as Neptune Collonges holding the form down, well, 2-3 years ago when the Nicholls camp thought Kauto was an out-and-out two-miler all the talk there was of Neptune Collonges as their potential future 3m champion, indeed many at Ditcheat were talking of him going for the Gold Cup in his novice year before he’d even jumped a fence in public, and now someone on here has called him a handicapper!!!!
God some of you have poor memories.In my opinion, he should remain impartial, lest he be accused of favouritism in the event of having to intervene in “slanging matches”.
If he is going to have an opinion, he should couch his words with a little more humility……in my opinion.
