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WW,
I put my tips up on another forum where they make a profit, not a very big profit but a profit. Do not have the time to start doing so here. The reason why I use this forum for giving my opinions about racing in general, is those on this site are often interested in racing and not primarily betting.
As Steve says, when defending a "pro gambler" who has again been unfairly craitercised here. It is impossible to do so without bringing value in to it, every pro gambler is a value punter.Might just put up my Grand National tissue here if I have the time. But then again, it would be unfair to judge anyone on one race, win or lose.
Ginge
Value Is EverythingFlash, Anzum,
This is a thread where a few members have critercised and called in to question the integrity of a pro gambler. Someone who does not visit this site (as far as I am aware) so can not defend himself. Please allow me to do so, using anything I want to, including value. If you want to say this thread should not have been started, I agree. I too would much rather talk about other things.
To say I have no opinions about anything other than value is stupid. I remember various debates I have had with you both. Particularly you Flash, over Cheltenham.
There are indeed many knowledgeable members on here who do know about percentages and value. But there are many others who although they say they do, it is blindingly obvious from other threads, they do not.Ginge
Value Is EverythingDoes Dave Nevison have to be "defended"? He’s not been acused of paedophilia FFS I doubt very much whether he’s particularly bothered about what any poster thinks.
Ginge for someone who states that he comes on here to talk racing a high percentage of your posts are about value / percentages – it bores some of us. Yes we know all about prices etc but we want to talk horses not go to some boring maths lesson. Can’t you just analyse a race without stating such and such has a 35% chance of winning? We’re not bothered what percentage your tissue tells you the horse has we’re more interested in what you think about the horse as a horse rather than as a percentage figure.
Does Dave Nevison have to be "defended"? He’s not been acused of paedophilia FFS I doubt very much whether he’s particularly bothered about what any poster thinks.
Ginge for someone who states that he comes on here to talk racing a high percentage of your posts are about value / percentages – it bores some of us. Yes we know all about prices etc but we want to talk horses not go to some boring maths lesson. Can’t you just analyse a race without stating such and such has a 35% chance of winning? We’re not bothered what percentage your tissue tells you the horse has we’re more interested in what you think about the horse as a horse rather than as a percentage figure.
So in a thread where Dave Nevison has been critercised and who’s integrity has been called in to question, it is now wrong of me to defend him? When a top forum questions whether he is telling the truth about his gambling etc. Yes I do think he would be bothered.
I only talk about value when it matters, when in a thread where value matters. Every bet I have or anyone else has, value should matter. What is the point of analysing a race if I do not state who I would back? If I were to say all the good points and all the bad points about each horse, you might think I would back the favourite every time because it has more positive points. This is not the case.
The trouble is many who are not interested in value only want to know a persons selection. But my selection could be a horse that I believe has a 5th the chance of the favourite. Surely it would be wrong of me, or anyone else, not to say what price a selection should be. Otherwise if there is anyone brave enough to back that selection, he may back it at a lower price than my tissue. So not being a good bet at all.When we have been talking about Denmans Gold Cup, how good he is etc. I do not mention value then. But I am sorry I have bored you Flash. Me being a boring bloke, got to get back to studying form, working out the percentages now so… OOPS sorry, should not mention that word should I.
Ginge
Value Is EverythingWe’re not bothered what percentage your tissue tells you the horse has we’re more interested in what you think about the horse as a horse rather than as a percentage figure.
Are you speaking for all of us now Flash? I certainly hope not….
Can’t you just analyse a race without stating such and such has a 35% chance of winning?
Not if you analyse it from a betting perspective.
If we’re not allowed to talk about percentages, then we’re not allowed to talk about odds (which are a representation of percentages) which means we can’t talk about betting.
There are a lot of people on here who are interested in the betting side of racing, so maybe you want to let them get on with it and stop whining like a little girl every time the word "value" pops up in the conversation?
Ginger, it’s "criticised" not "critercised".
Steve
Just like all the tipsters in the newpapers – they use figures and percentages all the time when analysing a race……..In fact no they do not. So because they don’t use these percentages they should be prohibited from distributing betting advice?
We’re not bothered what percentage your tissue tells you the horse has we’re more interested in what you think about the horse as a horse rather than as a percentage figure.
Are you speaking for all of us now Flash? I certainly hope not….
Seconded, Aragorn.
Whatever the rights and wrongs of Gingertipster’s logic, and whatever the interest his percentages may or may not inspire in other posters, I have come to admire the fact he has always argued his case courteously and with good grace, occasionally – as in some postings above – in the face of some pretty base provocation. Lesser mortals might have roared back with all manner of effing and jeffing, flaming the site. In the past some (subsequently banished) members on this Forum have.
He offers another angle for those among us suitably interested in 100% tissues and the like, and for that I have no issue at all with his contributions to this and other threads.
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
I would point out that my original premise was that Nevison himself acknowledges that he’s crap tipster so what he doing getting into the tipping business. It’s not unreasonable to assume from this that times may be hard.
Ginge has all the zeal of the converted I just hope it wasn’t on the basis of the coin tossing nonsenseIt would appear that there are more than likely 2 camps on this forum, or possibly 3 as indicated by a Venn Diagram. i.e. those that select the most likely winner of the race without regard to the price and those that determine the chances of each contender and create their own tissue. The later then make the selection based on the value principle. However, as the young WelshWizard has alluded to, this is all well and good in the hypothetical world. How can anyone say in great honesty that their odds are an accurate reflection of the outcome. Yes, I know the argument that if you were to know that your selection was categorically a 3/1 chance and you could get 7/2, over a period of 100 or more selections you would almost certainly show a profiit. But there are too many imponderables to suggest that one could do this consistently. And then when we get down to whether you’ve priced one at 2/1 and it’s available at 85/40. well the margins are so miniscule does it matter?
However, I do like the anecdote about Phil Bull. He said his mother learnt him to count….1, 5/4, 6/4, 7/4., 2……..etc. Or, in your case Ginge 50%, 44%, 40%, 36%, 33.33% etc.
Regards
LlanrumneyBoy
Just like all the tipsters in the newpapers – they use figures and percentages all the time when analysing a race……..In fact no they do not. So because they don’t use these percentages they should be prohibited from distributing betting advice?
Firstly, I wouldn’t prohibit anyone from distributing betting advice as long as they’re honest about their claims.
Secondly, there’s a difference between being a newspaper tipster and running a tipping line.
Most newspaper "tipsters" ignore value and just talk about which horse they think is most likely to win. And, as a result, they usually run to a big loss over the season.
The tipsters that are aiming for a profit tend to talk about odds and aim to find horses that are too long in the betting (e.g. pricewise).
So, my comment that betting analyses of races will revolve around percentages/odds applies … if the tipster is trying to provide profitable bets.
Steve
- Total Posts 17716
It would appear that there are more than likely 2 camps on this forum, or possibly 3 as indicated by a Venn Diagram. i.e. those that select the most likely winner of the race without regard to the price and those that determine the chances of each contender and create their own tissue. The later then make the selection based on the value principle. However, as the young WelshWizard has alluded to, this is all well and good in the hypothetical world. How can anyone say in great honesty that their odds are an accurate reflection of the outcome. Yes, I know the argument that if you were to know that your selection was categorically a 3/1 chance and you could get 7/2, over a period of 100 or more selections you would almost certainly show a profiit. But there are too many imponderables to suggest that one could do this consistently. And then when we get down to whether you’ve priced one at 2/1 and it’s available at 85/40. well the margins are so miniscule does it matter?
Regards
LlanrumneyBoy
Precisely LB.
Any punter worth his salt can spot a price rickage, but to suggest that anyone can accurately forecast the whole market on a series of races is just plain laughable.To work out races to 100% is possible although of course there has to be a margin for error.
Just bacause one person can not do it, does not mean another is not capable. After all it is what bookmakers odds compilers did on every race until exchanges came along.
Ginge
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 17716
To work out races to 100% is possible although of course there has to be a margin for error.
Just bacause one person can not do it, does not mean another is not capable. After all it is what bookmakers odds compilers did on every race until exchanges came along.
Ginge
Then in that case Ginge, I suggest that the person who "is capable" shows the person who "isn’t", as frankly your efforts so far have been singularly unimpressive for one who grinds on so much?
I don’t doubt odds compilers do a fair job, but doesn’t the fact that these professionals are "doing a job" in itself suggest that making a profit from betting on tissues isn’t nearly as simple as you would have us believe?WW,
I put my tips up on another forum where they make a profit, not a very big profit but a profit. Do not have the time to start doing so here. The reason why I use this forum for giving my opinions about racing in general, is those on this site are often interested in racing and not primarily betting.
As Steve says, when defending a "pro gambler" who has again been unfairly craitercised here. It is impossible to do so without bringing value in to it, every pro gambler is a value punter.Might just put up my Grand National tissue here if I have the time. But then again, it would be unfair to judge anyone on one race, win or lose.
Ginge
This is where I don’t understand you Ginge. I don’t doubt you for one minute when you make a small profit but surely it can’t be worth the time and effort?
You and I are like Chalk and Cheese but is the amount of money we risk so much different?
Apart from 2 3 cross bets on a Suturday I have had only 2 decent bets since Cheltenham……..Big Zeb and Brook No Argument one winner one loser but a profit of 30pts having secured 5/2 about the latter. I would imagine you may have staked nearly as much as I have over the period. Granted the overall risk to you might prove to be less but are the rewards as high?
Today I had different choices and decided to take a gamble. Normally I would have bet Binocular and that would have been that but unlike Kempton there is a far higher risk and he could be beaten and the day has presented itself with other opportuinities.
I don’t so much look at how much I can win I tend to look at how much I can lose and try to reduce it to a minimum if like today I think there is value to be had. It can of course be costly but their is always an element of risk.
Had this been early in the season I would have done the following
60 pts Binocular pays 192.5
60 pts Kauto Star and Master Minded pays 155.45
Now I can see value in that as either bet comes up I am showing a profit and tring to cover myself at the same time.
However because I have boxed clever and not gone in every day like a bull in a china shop I am in a very strong position and can afford to bet without worrying. To me that is the secret of success is never ever over comit yourself and make your main gambles with the bookies money.
Even then I try and put thought into what I am doing and look for the best opportunities. Today and tomorrow 3 of the 4 best horses in training are running at level weights plus comditions are excellent.
To me that is what I call value and well worth risking money on.
Apart from the above I have backed Inglis Drever, Kauto Star and Master Minded in a 30 pts treble pays 194.32 and Inglis Drever and Kauto Star in a 50pts double pays 215.91
If the luck is in and they all win I show a whopping 530 pts profit.
If olny Kauto and Master Minded win I show a loss of about 55 pts which is less than I would have lost on Binny in the first place.
The 200 pts I am prepared to lose only because it is only a proportion of my winnings on the season and I can sleep at night no matter what.
I waited from ages to have my first bet of the season Spotthedifference and when he won I have never put myself in a position where if I had a loser I didn’t have at least 2 chances to recoup the losses.
Apart from Kauto Star if he had not won the King George as he lost in the GC, that would have knocked a hole in the pot but all it would have done, by the time the race came round, is knocked me back to where I was at the start of the season.Even my biggest bet for years at Ascot on Binocular would not have put me in a losing position nor would lumping the winnings on to Master Minded in the Queen Mum………….bets for nothing is the secret to winning IMO and you can’t do that betting value in the way you seem to be trying to do it. Too many races too many horses too much risk IMO. Can’t possible put the time into studying you should be doing.
To openly admit you are making a small profit is like saying I am totally wasting my time and I better rethink my strategy. If you go on doing what you are doing sooner or later you will crack and lose big time..I have seen it 100 times where guys are never away from the betting shop just lose the plot completely throuugh total frustration and way too much pressure.
To bet 90% and study 10% is a sure way to an early punters grave IMO.
For me you are puting too much emphasis on value and not enough emphasis on risk. You can not possible bet every day without messing up big time, as you are betting on races where you are betting near to blind.
To work out races to 100% is possible although of course there has to be a margin for error.
GingeThat comment proves that despite all your bluster about people “not understanding value” in fact it is YOU that doesn;t understand!
I can work any race out to 100% in minutes, been doing it for 15 years so nothing special there….the prices will only reflect MY opinion though, and only days of study would make that opinion worthy….how could one (as DN claims to) do that for every race every day?
As i keep trying to tell you, the crux is, whether you are consistently putting horses in your tissue that are going off at significantly over those odds. And then, on top of that, are enough of those actually winning to put you in profit.You are taking too simplistic a view – like someone who has been heard a lesson from the Bible, and become a born-again Christian, their faith in God is unshakeable, but it is because they are not questioning what they are newly espousing.
Here is something for you to consider – if a horse is in your tissue at 5/2, and it is on offer at 4/1, you back it and it wins……did you get value? Are you on your way to being a pro punter? Or was it really at 6/1 chance anyway (because they win 1 in 7 remember ginge) and you just got lucky? Because if it’s the latter mate, start saying your prayers, you’re on your way to doing your gonads.
Some good posts on this thread.
There seems to be a strong feeling on the Welsh panel that for a tissue to be of value it has to be correct, blindingly obvious surely.
For that tissue to be accurate you have to be very well-informed, form study isn’t everything, if the horse with the best form isn’t fit, and trying, it won’t win.
Ginge, you carry on the way you are, we all have to make our own mistakes and learn fro them………’tis the only way
Colin
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