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Nevison spends several hours each day studying the form for the meeting which he is attending and draws up the tissue based on his judgement. It is the form study and the judgement that matters, he then chooses to express that in the form of a 100% tissue.
In other words, it isn’t the fact that he draws up a tissue that makes him successful, but his ability to read the form and his judgement, honed over many years of following the game. If anyone thinks that just drawing up a tissue to 100% is automatically going to make them a professional punter, they are of course mistaken.
Having said that, it makes sense to me that having studied the form, you try to express your opinion in terms of the prices you would be happy to accept for the horses/horse you want to back. However you go about it, you are backing your judgement and that judgement will include at the very least a rough assessment of whether the odds on offer are acceptable or not. As ever in this interminable value/winners debate, the two sides are not really as far apart as they think, but the language they use wind one another up.
To bet 90% and study 10% is a sure way to an early punters grave IMO.
Well put Fister
An interesting essay on money management, essentially reinforcing the importance of having sufficient ‘disposable’ capital to dip into; hence rendering losses and losing runs of no importance in the long term.
CuBones blog explains that most pro-gamblers go over to run tipping services because there’s more money in it, especially when they start getting their accounts restricted.
No matter how good you are at picking winners or finding value you will always have to bet in meaningful sums to get any sort of return. Making a profit isnt the problem, getting your bets on is.
Some good posts on this thread.
There seems to be a strong feeling on the Welsh panel that for a tissue to be of value it has to be correct, blindingly obvious surely.
For that tissue to be accurate you have to be very well-informed, form study isn’t everything, if the horse with the best form isn’t fit, and trying, it won’t win.
Ginge, you carry on the way you are, we all have to make our own mistakes and learn fro them………’tis the only way
Colin
That’s the key factor Colin is learning by your mistakes but this making a book really bamboozles me probaly because I largly ignore it.
I’m not sure you need to make a tissue to spot value. If you fancy a horse overnight before you see the betting is is an autmatic reponse to think what price you might get.
If you think 2/1 eg and the horse opens 4/5 then obviously he is not value in your eyes or your the best judge at picking winners in the world and just don’t know it
I can’t see a need really, maybe I am just thick……but if you study a race and come up with the conclusion Denman is going to win then what price the others are is surely irrelevant……I would have thought only his price would be important to the person betting.
Is it the case that these people think Denman should be 2/1 and Exotic Dancer should be 5/1 that if the former is 1/1’s and the latter is 8/1 they switch camps and bet against what they originally chose to win?
Altenatively do the bet both or bet none? I am at a loss to exactly why they sake up book and why they need it.
CuBones blog explains that most pro-gamblers go over to run tipping services because there’s more money in it, especially when they start getting their accounts restricted.
No matter how good you are at picking winners or finding value you will always have to bet in meaningful sums to get any sort of return. Making a profit isnt the problem, getting your bets on is.
I would totally discount this due to as Harry Findlay said the other week Betfair, if they were any good, why give the winners to the great British public?
I would have thought Nevison gets his money from tipping lines, books, tv appearances, newspaper articles and bloodstock rather than backing winners, I’ve no time for people who constantly refer to "messages" and "phone calls", Winstanley’s another one.
Someone said Steve Mellish has a premium tipping line yet he apparently has few bets and while that would excuse his appearances as an expert on tv why would he give winners on a premium tipping line if he’s not backing them himself?I subscribe to Big Mac’s take on this : i.e. If these phone tipsters were any good and had such brilliant information to impart, why not keep it for themselves? They’d be millionaires, each and every one of them.
I never use them, never have, and never will. I trust my own judgement and get along just fine. If things don’t go to plan (my selection loses) then I only have myself to blame.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Spot on Himself. I rely on my own analysis and interpretive techniques. If I’m consequently making consistent losses, I need to improve my analysis and selectivity.
I subscribe to Big Mac’s take on this : i.e. If these phone tipsters were any good and had such brilliant information to impart, why not keep it for themselves? They’d be millionaires, each and every one of them.
I never use them, never have, and never will. I trust my own judgement and get along just fine. If things don’t go to plan (my selection loses) then I only have myself to blame.
I think it is more a matter of "if I don’t understand or are not capable, then I do not believe anyone is".
Ginge
Value Is EverythingSomeone said Steve Mellish has a premium tipping line yet he apparently has few bets and while that would excuse his appearances as an expert on tv why would he give winners on a premium tipping line if he’s not backing them himself?
It is because mugs will phone the line regardless and it’s easy money. His selections may show a profit but I doubt tipsters are able to do the amount of studying required to give out bombproof tips every day. It’s just not viable. If someone offers them a premium rate tipline with say an offer of 30% of call profits, why on earth would they turn it down?
Ginger,
Can you please stop bringing me into your arguments here. If I want to make a point on this sort of thread, I’ll do it under my own steam.
If you want to make a point, then please do so without referring to me as some sort of example.
AP
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All of these negative points about Nevison and other professional gamblers could easily be aimed at AP yet when he comes on you all bow down to the great man, as you should.
But is it not a bit two faced?
I think it is more a matter of "if I don’t understand or are not capable, then I do not believe anyone is".
Ginge
Gingertipster,
I have read various threads involving AP, and there are members who do not agree with every word written by the author. So, your inference, that everyone is obsequious is incorrect.
I hope your tissues are more accurate.
Regards,
LLanrumneyBoy
- Total Posts 17716
Ginge
FFS stop hiding behind AP’s skirt.
If either he or DN came on here banging on about something in the manner you have,we would expect to see at least some evidence of it in operation, or they would no doubt be called to task in the way you have.
That you have constantly harangued us about the same subject for weeks and weeks without a single demonstration of its efficacy leads one to suspect, as others also seem to, that it is nothing but wind and pi**.
Prove me wrong!There you go you see, now I’m being accused of wearing a skirt.
Whereas my friends know I would never sit down in front of TRF without putting on an evening dress and formal jewels !!
AP
It is because mugs will phone the line regardless and it’s easy money. His selections may show a profit but I doubt tipsters are able to do the amount of studying required to give out bombproof tips every day. It’s just not viable. If someone offers them a premium rate tipline with say an offer of 30% of call profits, why on earth would they turn it down?
Glad you agree War Admiral that these tipsters who have premium tipping lines have nothing to offer. Just because they accept the easy 30% from "mugs" doesn’t mean they should be immune from criticism does it? I expect you could question the morals of some of them judging by the adverts in the Racing Post and elsewhere.
Also, AP has never repeatedly inflicted us with rudimentary mathematics dressed up (bizarrely) as some kind of cloak-and-dagger conspiracy theory.
Beware the mystical ‘Table of Odds and Chances’? You don’t half talk a lot of codswallop at times, GT…
The tipsters that are aiming for a profit tend to talk about odds and aim to find horses that are too long in the betting (e.g. pricewise).
The only problem is that he’s not in profit in spite of RP quoting big prices before the event and saying nothing when he loses which nowadays is most of the time
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