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Kauto Star – the most underrated horse in training

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Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 46 total)
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  • #7112
    thedarkknight
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1299

    I would include myself among Denman’s biggest fans and, like everyone else, was impressed by Master Minded in the (weak) Champion Chase.

    However the official ratings of

    186 Master Minded
    185 Denman
    180 Kauto

    ….are a disgraceful slur on Kauto Star!

    Master Minded ran in a poor champion chase where 2 of his 3 rivals ran no sort of race at all – so his rating hinges on how good Vor Por Ustedes is these days and I think 186 is a big shout given it is his only piece of form in that kind of parish.

    185 is fair enough reflection of Denman;s achievements, but Kauto shouldn’t be more than a pound or two below that given his achievements in the King George and the Ascot race.

    #151600
    Flash
    Member
    • Total Posts 1144

    Denman is too high on 185. 179 – 180 is much more accurate. Kauto Star is about right on 180 whilst Master Minded I have on 182+.

    You could argue that Master Minded should be higher but I’ve always had Voy Por Ustedes as a 163 horse even when winning last years Champion Chase its tough to rate him much higher than that unless you inflate ratings on the basis of a race being a championship race.

    #151606
    clivex
    Member
    • Total Posts 3420

    So given that theyve seemingly taken the GC in isolation, what is Neptunes new rating?

    #151611
    johnt4124
    Member
    • Total Posts 36

    Would Denman have beaten Kauto Star in the King George? Would not that be the real test of his greatness?

    #151617
    Flash
    Member
    • Total Posts 1144

    Would Denman have beaten Kauto Star in the King George? Would not that be the real test of his greatness?

    I don’t think he would. He’d probably run to somewhere around 173 whereas Kauto would run to around 179 – 180 (generally).

    People tend to get a bit carried away not least the official handicapper. Distances, going – both make a difference. Denman is a big powerful galloper, Kauto is more speedy. 3 miles 5f Denman wins easily, 2m 4f Kauto wins easily.

    What WOULD be a real race is a 2m4f race between Kauto and Master Minded. Tough to call that one.

    #151619
    davidjohnson
    Member
    • Total Posts 4491

    Master Minded and Denman are both rated too high. According to the Racing Post article Moscow Flyer was never higher than 180 which puts those two ratings into context.

    It’s almost immaterial what figures they are given by the BHA as none of them are likely to contest handicaps I don’t think and it shows why ratings judged alone are flawed. Denman is most unlikely to run to his best against Kauto Star when the latter has optimum conditions and vice versa. And whilst you can manufacture a rating to say x at his best is better than y at his best, these ratings show it’s mere conjecture.

    #151621
    Happy Jack
    Participant
    • Total Posts 515

    These new numbers appear to be a performance rating judged on one race. Has Kauto Star gone from the best chaser around to the third best by nearly half a stone in the space of one race? I’m not sure.

    #151625
    Alderbrook
    Member
    • Total Posts 349

    Looks a bit like the handicapper trying to justify the hype. Wouldn’t look right for him to have Kauto rated higher or suggest that the best form is anywhere other than Cheltenham so we get a rating based on that run alone.

    Anyone know the answer to clivex’s question btw?

    #151626
    Flash
    Member
    • Total Posts 1144

    So given that theyve seemingly taken the GC in isolation, what is Neptunes new rating?

    178 I believe officially.

    #151630
    High Ken
    Member
    • Total Posts 47

    Perhaps like so many French breds we have seen the best of Kauto at an early age and it’s downhill from here.

    French breds don’t win the National and there is a good reason for it. They start their jump careers far too early. Kauto has already run 26 times and might well have peaked. Certainly don’t expect much more improvement.

    #151641
    Flash
    Member
    • Total Posts 1144

    Perhaps like so many French breds we have seen the best of Kauto at an early age and it’s downhill from here.

    .

    Thats harsh.

    Even if he doesn’t improve at all he’s still got the ability to be at the top of the tree for years. To say its "downhill" from here is a bold prediction – presumably means you think he’s going to digress.

    #151652
    High Ken
    Member
    • Total Posts 47

    "Flash" wrote:

    Perhaps like so many French breds we have seen the best of Kauto at an early age and it’s downhill from here.

    .

    Thats harsh.

    Even if he doesn’t improve at all he’s still got the ability to be at the top of the tree for years. To say its "downhill" from here is a bold prediction – presumably means you think he’s going to digress.

    I don’t think many French horses are going to keep improving when they have run so many times at a tender age. Kauto is the same age as Denman but had run a dozen times before Denman had seen a racecourse.

    Horses are not bred to be as tough like they used to be and this is very noticeable with the influx of French breds at leading stables. Could you imagine any of todays horses running on extremes of going such as hard?

    I will be bold enough to say Kauto will never win the Gold Cup again.

    #151653
    Grimes
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1890

    "So given that they’ve seemingly taken the GC in isolation, what is Neptunes new rating?"

    Enough to win most Gold Cups I think, Clivex. I remember Mordin raving about Neptune Collonges when he first won ever here, and giving him a very high rating – though until he proved otherwise, he thought he needed soft or heavy going.

    #151661
    richard
    Participant
    • Total Posts 138

    High Ken, there is a counter arguement. Because French horses are trained -not necessarilly run – from an earlier age, their bone structure and muscles are better conditioned than traditional British/Irish stores. Therefore they can stand more racing. This point was made by Mcnae/Willoughby on RUK this evening. From my own limited experience of talking to French racing professionals, they make the same point.

    The downside possibly is that some French horses who need a good deal of time to develop are brought on too quickly, with adverse consequences. But I don’t think the latter point can be applied to Kauto Star. Also he is not a pure bred and French crosses can be very tough indeed.

    richard

    #151663
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 27800

    Phil Smith got caught up in the hype.

    Ginge

    value is everything
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