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I would include myself among Denman’s biggest fans and, like everyone else, was impressed by Master Minded in the (weak) Champion Chase.
However the official ratings of
186 Master Minded
185 Denman
180 Kauto….are a disgraceful slur on Kauto Star!
Master Minded ran in a poor champion chase where 2 of his 3 rivals ran no sort of race at all – so his rating hinges on how good Vor Por Ustedes is these days and I think 186 is a big shout given it is his only piece of form in that kind of parish.
185 is fair enough reflection of Denman;s achievements, but Kauto shouldn’t be more than a pound or two below that given his achievements in the King George and the Ascot race.
Denman is too high on 185. 179 – 180 is much more accurate. Kauto Star is about right on 180 whilst Master Minded I have on 182+.
You could argue that Master Minded should be higher but I’ve always had Voy Por Ustedes as a 163 horse even when winning last years Champion Chase its tough to rate him much higher than that unless you inflate ratings on the basis of a race being a championship race.
So given that theyve seemingly taken the GC in isolation, what is Neptunes new rating?
Would Denman have beaten Kauto Star in the King George? Would not that be the real test of his greatness?
Would Denman have beaten Kauto Star in the King George? Would not that be the real test of his greatness?
I don’t think he would. He’d probably run to somewhere around 173 whereas Kauto would run to around 179 – 180 (generally).
People tend to get a bit carried away not least the official handicapper. Distances, going – both make a difference. Denman is a big powerful galloper, Kauto is more speedy. 3 miles 5f Denman wins easily, 2m 4f Kauto wins easily.
What WOULD be a real race is a 2m4f race between Kauto and Master Minded. Tough to call that one.
Master Minded and Denman are both rated too high. According to the Racing Post article Moscow Flyer was never higher than 180 which puts those two ratings into context.
It’s almost immaterial what figures they are given by the BHA as none of them are likely to contest handicaps I don’t think and it shows why ratings judged alone are flawed. Denman is most unlikely to run to his best against Kauto Star when the latter has optimum conditions and vice versa. And whilst you can manufacture a rating to say x at his best is better than y at his best, these ratings show it’s mere conjecture.
These new numbers appear to be a performance rating judged on one race. Has Kauto Star gone from the best chaser around to the third best by nearly half a stone in the space of one race? I’m not sure.
Looks a bit like the handicapper trying to justify the hype. Wouldn’t look right for him to have Kauto rated higher or suggest that the best form is anywhere other than Cheltenham so we get a rating based on that run alone.
Anyone know the answer to clivex’s question btw?
So given that theyve seemingly taken the GC in isolation, what is Neptunes new rating?
178 I believe officially.
Perhaps like so many French breds we have seen the best of Kauto at an early age and it’s downhill from here.
French breds don’t win the National and there is a good reason for it. They start their jump careers far too early. Kauto has already run 26 times and might well have peaked. Certainly don’t expect much more improvement.
Perhaps like so many French breds we have seen the best of Kauto at an early age and it’s downhill from here.
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Thats harsh.
Even if he doesn’t improve at all he’s still got the ability to be at the top of the tree for years. To say its "downhill" from here is a bold prediction – presumably means you think he’s going to digress.
"Flash" wrote:
Perhaps like so many French breds we have seen the best of Kauto at an early age and it’s downhill from here.
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Thats harsh.
Even if he doesn’t improve at all he’s still got the ability to be at the top of the tree for years. To say its "downhill" from here is a bold prediction – presumably means you think he’s going to digress.
I don’t think many French horses are going to keep improving when they have run so many times at a tender age. Kauto is the same age as Denman but had run a dozen times before Denman had seen a racecourse.
Horses are not bred to be as tough like they used to be and this is very noticeable with the influx of French breds at leading stables. Could you imagine any of todays horses running on extremes of going such as hard?
I will be bold enough to say Kauto will never win the Gold Cup again.
"So given that they’ve seemingly taken the GC in isolation, what is Neptunes new rating?"
Enough to win most Gold Cups I think, Clivex. I remember Mordin raving about Neptune Collonges when he first won ever here, and giving him a very high rating – though until he proved otherwise, he thought he needed soft or heavy going.
High Ken, there is a counter arguement. Because French horses are trained -not necessarilly run – from an earlier age, their bone structure and muscles are better conditioned than traditional British/Irish stores. Therefore they can stand more racing. This point was made by Mcnae/Willoughby on RUK this evening. From my own limited experience of talking to French racing professionals, they make the same point.
The downside possibly is that some French horses who need a good deal of time to develop are brought on too quickly, with adverse consequences. But I don’t think the latter point can be applied to Kauto Star. Also he is not a pure bred and French crosses can be very tough indeed.
richard
I suspected KS was digressing after his first run of the season. It seems im not the only too.
In explaining his second to Monets Garden, Paul Nichols said that KS is a ‘real three miler now!’ This translates to me as the horse has lost speed thus DIGRESSING. He won the Tingle Creek last year for christs sake and now connections wouldn’t dream of attempting such a feat again.
It always seems to start with excuses after defeats and after a few more iffy runs comes the scratching of heads accompanied by the old, ‘He scoped fine…’ chestnut.
I just get the feeling KS will chuck it in sooner than people think. We’ll know so much more on his next start. I just hope the old champ’s not ‘a real four miler’ by then.
Phil Smith got caught up in the hype.
Ginge
What an idiotic thing to say.
I have read on a few threads now you banging on about how Kauto didn’t run his race and how Denman has been over-rated as a result.
How has last year’s Gold Gup worked out?
2nd- Exotic Dancer, done nothing all year
3rd- Turpin Green, matched in running at 65 to win a 3-runner egg & spoon race at Haydock where the leader stopped to nothing and the danger fell
4th – Monkerhostin, done nothing
5th – Cane Brake – who?
6th – State of Play, done nothing.
I could go on.
He didn’t beat this lot out of sight, he won by 2.5, 2.5, 5, 0.75 and 0.5, and the rest were all pretty close up.
I reckon he achieved about as much in finishing 7 lengths behind Denman on Friday.I am a massive fan of Kauto Star, but Paul Nicholls has said he was beaten by a better horse, the official handicapper says he was beaten by a better horse, so why should you know any better than the rest of us?
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