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There really isn’t much depth to this race and on all known form, it’s difficult to suggest any viable outsider.
Weird Al ran Long Run to 2L last time, albeit a fair way behind KS. Murphy reported Weird Al a bit flat that day whereas his comment on WA’s C Hall win was that the horse was never off the bridle.
Weird Al has a fine record fresh and in small fields (looking increasingly likely for the Gold Cup). He’s 2 from 3 at Cheltenham (bled in the Gold Cup), appears to go on any ground, is with a fine trainer and is a strong EW bet at 20s imo.
Agreed, his form is not that of an obvious GC winner, but given LR’s jumping issues and the lack of strength in depth outside KS, I think he is a very viable outsider.
Interesting horse in that he’s relatively lightly raced and clearly has a good deal of ability. The problem is it’s difficult to make that leap of faith thats required. On form he has to reverse quite abit and he bombed in the Gold Cup last year.
I mean he’s one of the most viable alternatives i guess, because i think he is a little classier than most of the others, but it’s hope rather than anything tangible at this precise time.
Maybe you’re right j17, maybe i’m just constructing an argument to suit a view I already have.
Well yes, otherwise you’d be the worst debater since Jade Goody.
However history shows us that horses’ that win consecutive Gold Cups tend to be exceptional, and i’ve just never held the view that Long Run is an exceptional horse. If people believe that he is, or that the opposition is so mediocre that he’ll be able to win on default, then good luck to them, but I won’t be joining them.
Historically yes, although i’d state that it is often very dependant on a number of factors ; one being strength of opposition. Best Mate won 3 Gold Cups, and i have him as significantly inferior to kauto Star or a peak Denman.
I also don’t think Long Run is an exceptional horse. Yet, it is difficult to see past him for numerous reasons. The Gold Cup suits him down to the ground. He’s not a slow horse, but the further he goes, the better he is. We take Kauto Star out of the frame, and he’s demolished everything else. Whether that is a compliment to Long Run, or speaks about the rest, it doesn’t really matter. The opposition is very medicore this year. When Quito De La Roque is proposed as a potential winner, you know it’s a poor year.
As for Kauto Star, i’ve never backed a 12 year old in the Gold Cup and I don’t intend to start now. If he win’s i’ll hold my hands up but I just can’t see it.
Which is fair, and i struggle to see Kauto Star lasting home. Unfortunately for most of the opposition, if we assume Kauto star remains in the form he showed this season (I.e he doesn’t bomb) he has far too many gears for nearly all the others to get that close. Imperial Commander, Long Run etc are very good horses, and were able to maintain a position good enough to see the hill have an adverse impact on Kauto. Horses like Quito or Midnight Chase do not have that quality, and will be beaten a long way out.
Meanwhile Grand Crus i can envisage possessing the ability to be travelling very well, but i have serious stamina doubts about him.
I just take the view that the Betfair Chase and King George were quite ordinary and uncompetitive races by comparison with previous years, and thats there at least remains the possibility that the Gold Cup will be far more competitive.
It was no more ordinary than many of Kauto’s betfair/King George wins. He has them off the bridge a long way and out and destroys them. The only different this year has been he doesn’t quite have the acceleration he once had, and Long Run is a very good horse.
We’ve gone through all the possible alternatives, and i can’t see how any of them are particularly viable.
Maybe i’d respect your opinion more than instead of disparaging my argument in rather an insulting way, you respected my right to hold that opinion.
I reasoned why i disagree with your initial premise. I am not going to post in the manner of a friendly middle aged man who seems perrenially merry (Note, i am not implying you are this stereotype). Using the idea in an argument that everybody is allowed an opinion can often imply that one end of the argument wishes not to use logic/reasoning but rather by saying their entitled to that particular opinion. I find this a relatively fruitless exercise, and if i disagree i will say so without the above. Seems pointless to me.
Personally I think those who are saying that Long Run and Kauto are miles clear of the opposition and only have to turn up to have the race between them, are somewhat missing the point.
Missing what point? On ratings, form and all trends known, it’s true.
For me thats going too much on the Betfair chase and the King George. Neither of those two faced much opposition there, I think they were both weak races. look how a 12 year old in Kauto (who is in my view, clearly past his best) bullied it from the front, and the only one to put it up to him was Long Run, the rest were so poor they hardly got a blow in. If it was a decent King George, that just wouldn’t have happened. But in my view it was anything but.
Captain Chris, Weirld Al, Somersby, Diamond Harry etc are all good horses. Thet were all put in their place. The rest of those horses in behind are basically the best of the rest. I fail to see any valid argument here.
I can see the logic of thinking that theres nothing much in the Gold Cup either, and that it’s just as weak. But traditonally the Gold Cup has been stronger than those two races, and thats where I think applying the same logic could turn out to be dangerous.
For a race to be a stronger, you have to mention other viable opposition. The Gold Cup is a different test, but i’d have more respect for your argument if you lead with the argument that it provides very different conditions that may not lend itself to the two principles (Kauto really).
There are horses in the Gold Cup in my view, who are capable of considerable improvement. Midnight Chase, Quito De La Roque, Grands Cru (if he runs) spring to mind. I have in the past been dismissive of Synchronised and the horse who won yesterday, Quel Esprit, but throw them into the mix and you actually have the makings of quite a competitive Gold Cup.
Considerable improvement? Well yes, they’d need to on all known form. Midnight Chase was outclassed last year, put up a respectable but not particularly exciting debut performance and then won a race that absolutely fell apart and has no meaning or value to it. Midnight Chase will get absolutely destroyed by both the principles. You’d have to be a lunatic to think otherwise, and expecting random improvement seems ridiculous given age and experience.
Quito De La Roque is slow he won’t be closer enough down the hill to have any chance. Kauto may not really see out the trip, but he has so many more gears than Quito De La Roque that will be so far ahead rounding the turn it won’t matter. He only won his seasonal debut because Sizing Europe doesn’t stay and The Nightingale didn’t either. You do need some speed to win a Gold Cup unfortunately.
Grand Crus is basically the exact opposite of Quito De La Roque. He’s yet to prove to me he can handle the Gold Cup trip and to my eyes would hold an outstanding chance in either 2 and half mile race. He’s untested outside of Novice company and has definite stamina concerns that make him almost unbackable for this, no matter how interesting a runner he is.
Synchronised is a plodder who needs very soft ground and won’t get it. Again, he lacks the speed to win any normal Gold Cup.
Quel Esprit is a little interesting, but on form he is still along way behind the two principles. He himself still has concerns (jumping) and what he beat at the weekend is relative trash compared to the abilities of Long Run and Kauto Star. He’s a viable outsider definitely, but it’s a stretch to believe it’s very likely.
My main point, I suppose, is that in my view the two races Kauto has won this season haven’t been great races, (for example Grands Cru’s winning time at kempton was quicker than the King George, which says at lot) and it says more about the weakness of Long Run’s challenge that it says about Kauto.
Why people are jumping over themselves to back Long Run at 2-1, quite frankly is beyond me.
Grand Crus’s winning time at kempton was faster because they went a faster pace. Cross comparisons of times unfortunately have distinct limitations. Kauto Star clearly isn’t at his peak powers, but he’s still the 3 Miler Chaser around. His downfall will be the hill and the couple of furlongs IMO, something Long Run will love.
There really isn’t much depth to this race and on all known form, it’s difficult to suggest any viable outsider.
Well if you rate Grands Crus then he could be very good.
If you don’t (like me), meh.
What? You may not rate Grand Crus a likely winner at the Festival this year (i have my doubts), but he is clearly a high class horse with a very good engine.
So IF he is on that type of level, it means he’s a very good horse.
Or we could continue with the hyperbole i guess …
It looks to me as if we are very likely to see this year’s Cheltenham Gold Cup in this race, we’ll certainly know more on Sunday than we’ll find out at Newbury on Saturday.
All three on my short list for the main event are likely to run here, Quito De La Roque, Magnanimity and Quel Esprit then there are others that can’t be dismissed out of hand, Bostons Angel, Jessies Dream, Diamond Harry, on a course more likely to suit him, and even the mare, Blazing Tempo.
It’s unlikely, but not impossible, to forsee China Rock pull off a surprise, while the English pair can’t be left out with total confidence although really I can’t see Synchronised repeat his shock Lexus win.While I (fairly confidently) expect the first three above to fill the first three places but I’m not as sure I can predict the finishing order. Whoever does win on sunday will probably carry my cash at Cheltenham and will hopefully go on to complete the double
Not sure if you’re trying to be deliberately clever or you enjoy running in the wind naked? Very confused.
Quito De La Roque isn’t up to a standard gold cup. He’s slow, very slow, so slow i think it’s more likely Craig Pickering wins the 100M Olympic race than him winning a Gold Cup. His win this year has little form substance, considering he was ridiculous outpaced in shocking conditions before a 2 Miler and a horse who had been off the track for a year fell in a ridiculous heap after the 2nd last. He’ll get blitzed on fast ground at Cheltenham. Blitzed.
Magnamity hasn’t shown the class. Beaten by Boston’s angel twice and disappointed in the Lexus. Again, i see no reason to believe he’d ever be good enough for a Gold Cup.
Quel Esprit i actually have little opinion on currently, though hacking around against moderate opposition is a far cry from winning a Gold Cup. Of th 3 suggested he’s clearly got the most class, but there are so many questionmarks i couldn’t contemplate thinking a Gold Cup victory is likely.
Im not entirely convinced Grand Crus would win the RSA. The RSA generally isn’t a race for strong travelling free going horses. I question whether Grand Crus will truely stay. Horses who travel that powerfully often struggle to get home.
So i could never back him for the Gold Cup. Kauto Star/Long Run are entirely different propositions to Bobs worth etc. You aren’t going to have these horses crushed and way off the bridle like he had those at Kempton.
Whilst he’s an undoubtedly talented horse, i think this trip against these rivals would find him out. Kauto star even at the age of 12 has exceptional gears and Long Run will grind it out. I just can’t see him outpacing Kauto or outgrinding Long Run up the hill. As said earlier, i’d really think about taking in the Ryanair or Jewson with him, in which i think he’d be very hard to stop. In an ordinary year i’d actually think he’d be good enough to go close in an Arkle.
Did Moscow Flyer run in the QM
Did Azertyuiop
Did Well ChiefHe’s in that elite but his form is more transparent than that trio as he has already trounced his main opponent. If Moscow Flyer had been given a go at Seebald prior to their Arkle he’d have been very short and would have attracted the same hype comments.
SS is a chaser pure and simple and yet still went close in the Supreme. It was a superb effort from such an inexperienced horse.Were those three hyped up to the extent Sprinter Sacre has been? I don’t think they were…
Master Minded won it as a 5yr old (albeit not the strongest race)
When people are making assertions on here that the horse is so far better than Finians Rainbow then you have to ask the question why connections aren’t going for the bigger race if it is that good….
What happens if the horse picks up a bad injury before next season (God forbid) or if the horse just wants a lot further than two miles next year (a big possibility)…then you’ve thrown away the chance of taking part in and winning a QMCC…
I don’t buy into the hype anyway….yes he’s put in a couple of impressive performances but as for trouncing a rival….Peddlers Cross absolutely smashed through the first fence but still creeped back into the race and at a point looked dangerous before fading late on which is now understandable considering he picked up an injury…
Taking 2/1 on a horse on the basis of that run and a lofty home reputation is not something I’m the slightest bit interested in. I’ve seen for myself 3 times in his career when he’s come off the bridle he’s found little….
The last two years the bookies have been out to get one on the opening day and have succeeded with Dunguib the year before and Cue Card last year, both pretty short in the opening race….with it 10/1 the field so far in that one I’m sure Sprinter Sacre is the one they’ll be rubbing their hands over….
Where to begin with this illogical mess.
Mastermind won it as a 5 yr old. That’s an excpetional. It’s the only time a 5 yr old has won it, and he wasn’t eligible for novice races. Sprinter Sacre has had 2 starts over fences and is eligible for Novice races. Therefore, it is entirely logical to take in the Arkel rather than the Champion Chase. Novices tend to go for the Novice races. Implying a horse is hyped and doesn’t warrant his place in the market because he isn’t being aimed outside of Novice company is absolutely asinine and stupid.
They aren’t going for the race perhaps because he is a novice and has only had 2 runs over Fences. Maybe that is the reason? I didn’t know you were a high class trainer who has had great success aiming Novices in Championship level races .. oh wait, you aren’t.
Trainers dont train on the basis that the horse will pick up an injury. Not that hard to understand.
Peddler’s Cross hit the first fence, but had ample time to recover. Maybe he wasn’t at his best, but he was destroyed. SS was cantering all over him and Peddler’s didn’t have the speed to hack with him. Cheltenham is different and plays to different skillsets, but it would be folly to think Peddler’s Cross has more natural speed than SS. I also don’t think he ever looked remotely dangerous in that race ; he was never travelling better than his opponent.
3 times in his career? He has been beaten twice. Once in a Novice Hurdle where he patently didn’t stay, and once in the Supreme Novice. He’s clearly progressed since the Supreme and clearly had the best cruising speed of any horse in the Supreme. So 3?
SS does have some concerns to overcome. He has good opposition to face and will have to get up that hill. Yet it cannot be denied that the price he is seems completely warranted and that he is a serious player for the Arkle.
Ok, I’ve done the analysis and have come up with the following truths that cannot possibly be disputed based on the data.
1) This is a God awful renewal of the Triumph & anybody who bets more than 50p on it is utterly insane.
2) Grumeti will be placed.
3) Minsk is by a street the horse I’d most want to be on at the moment, despite being Irish-trained.
1) We say this every year. Soldatino’s renewal was shocking, i don’t think this is. You’re simply confusing question marks with ability. It’s simply very hard to decipher the winner currently. I remember last year thinking the Triumph was very poor.
2) I agree. Can’t see him not being placed and much prefer him to Pearl Swan
3) Perhaps, but an unraced irish trained horse isn’t exactly appealing no matter how good his flat form was. I wouldn’t touch him.
As things stand if Zarkandar is a Champion Hurdle horse he should win this with ease of his current mark and then head to Cheltnenham.
However what if Soldatino who has also won a Triumph Hurdle wins it easily where do you think he will go next?
He is apparently strongly fancied and you’d have to think if Zarkandar is/was going for the Champion Hurdle and Soldatino stuffed him that Simon Munir the owner of Grandouet would want a second bow to his string and supplement Soldatino for the race.
Champion Hurdle betting
Zarkandar 7/1
Soldatino 1000/1
56 quid has been matched over the last few days some is my own some from a bit closer to home. 8 quid left. He may not win the Betfair or be supplemented but if he did and was
Soldatino isn’t close to Champion Hurdle class. Struggle to see any reasoning to think he’d any chance.
Just looking at the betting on William hill for this and i think the market is ridiculous.
Steps To Freedom is undoubtedly a good horse, but the Cheltenham novice race hasn’t worked out, and he hasn’t run since then.
Captain Conan isn’t the best 2 Miler from the Tolworth and will be outpaced in this.
Cinders and Ashes should be a much bigger price as stated earlier.
Darlan has no chance IMO. Beating Jump City the way he did even if it was relatively easily means he has alot to find. No way he’s good enough.
Dildar will need to run well next time out to justify his position in the Triumph market, and i cannot have him for the Supreme at all.
Pearl Swan isn’t quick enough and isn’t going here anyway, but Hills have him priced at 10-1. The worst bet i can think of.
I mean, i actually think the Supreme looks a fascinating race and that there are lots of good talented horses in the race, but the market seems ridiculously backward to me.
Backing Montbazon and Cash and Go at much much better prices here. The market is shocking …
I backed Al Ferof at 16’s last year and definitely think there is major value in this race.
do you guys thnik grand crus will run, should be interesting race f he does, along with midnight chase, whome seems to love cheltenham
vf
Midnight Chase has absolutely no chance. He won an awful trial in which all the main percieved protagonists fell apart and failed to deliver. I’d be amazed if he finished within 20-25 lengths of the winner.
Only 2 stone between Arkle and Long Run? Himself could have given The French Horse 3 stone and beaten him by a distance
Based upon what? A romantic idea? No one is disputing the merits of Arkle even though i’ve never seen him (Hell i wasn’t born when Dessert Orchid was winning) but do you not think you are being a little hyperbolic? We get it, Arkle is considered the undisputed best chaser of all time. Doesn’t mean we need endless "But Arkle was soooooo superior" everytime ratings are discussed. It doesn’t achieve anything and is frankly annoying.
I was lucky enought to see "Himself" in the flesh the day he broke the course record at Sandown by 17 seconds, a record that has never been neared, never mind beaten.
The day before the race Arkle was taken for a light canter on the track but took it into his mind to try to race the express treain on the railway side of the course. He bolted on his work rider and kept pace with the train the entire length of the back straight. Tom Dreaper considered withdrawing the horse from the next days race but didn’t want to dissapoint the crowds.
Arkle was led by Mill House on the first circuit but grabbed the bit on the way up the hill on the first circuit to go past the stands in the lead. Having realised the race wasn’t over he let Mill House past shortly after the " winning post" only to cruise past the same horse on the bend approaching the pond fence. It looked like Frankel passing the field on the bend at Ascot as a 2-Y-Old. He went on to win in a hack canter and Mill House was a hell of a horse and was getting lumps of weight off Arkle. The horse was not a normal horse, he was a freak of nature, the reincarnation of Kinscem if there ever was oneGo watch the race for yourself on you tube
All very fabulous, and again, no one disputes Arkle and his ability or that he stands at the top of the tree, but again it feels like people try too hard to tell how you exceptional he was. Frankel is the best Flat horse i have ever seen, it doesn’t mean i wish to endlessly rant and rave when a minor point arises in regards to someone "questioning" something.
I’ve seen some of his highlights, but it’s difficult to really mean anything to me. I will never have any affliation or link to Arkle (which for the purpose of analysis probably helps).
As for this Gold Cup, i think Long Run is the likely winner. I think Kauto Star is a better horse, but age and conditions will be really difficult for Kauto Star to overcome. As much as i want him to win, i think Long Run has to be considered the most likely winner.
do you guys thnik grand crus will run, should be interesting race f he does, along with midnight chase, whome seems to love cheltenham
vf
Midnight Chase has absolutely no chance. He won an awful trial in which all the main percieved protagonists fell apart and failed to deliver. I’d be amazed if he finished within 20-25 lengths of the winner.
Only 2 stone between Arkle and Long Run? Himself could have given The French Horse 3 stone and beaten him by a distance
Based upon what? A romantic idea? No one is disputing the merits of Arkle even though i’ve never seen him (Hell i wasn’t born when Dessert Orchid was winning) but do you not think you are being a little hyperbolic? We get it, Arkle is considered the undisputed best chaser of all time. Doesn’t mean we need endless "But Arkle was soooooo superior" everytime ratings are discussed. It doesn’t achieve anything and is frankly annoying.
My Galileo’s Choice worry would be his trainer’s name.
ok, his Festival record is poor but that doesn’t make him a bad trainer
In fact I’d go so far as to say he’s one of the finest trainers on the entire planet, look at the record of his flat horses worldwide and his astonishing record at GalwayDermot Weld is as big a plus as a plus gets in my opinion
It makes him a bad trainer to follow at the Festival. What Weld does at Galway (who cares) or his record in international flat races seems rather redundant when we are discussing his prospects for the Cheltenham Festival. It’s not to say he won’t have winners there, but like Meade, he tends to have novice hurdlers who are often over-estimated in relation to their actual ability and they often disappoint.
You should never follow trends off a cliff and you should always understand that trends and statistics always have their limitations in whatever context ; yet you’d be foolish not to give these trends some consideration/merit.
I can’t have Cinders and Ashes winning a Supreme. What has it really achieved?
Yes, last year was last year, however it is comfortably held by Steps To Freedom and Montbazon (who at the prices is a much better bet). He was beaten by Broadback Bob over 2 Miles who was subsequently beaten by Batonnier who again wouldn’t compare favourobly to Montbazon. He’s since won two small field races at Haydock, one a weak contest and the other on very soft ground. Double Ross is a good solid yardstick, but it’s not high end form and conditions were about as different to the Supreme test as you will find.
Sure, he’s a nice horse who has shown a good level of ability, but i fear connections, good placing and trainer hyping it will lead to a very artificial price come the race. I’d be amazed if there wern’t a few better than him.
Interesting that Ted Spread won easily yesterday in an ok handicap hurdle. Gives a form boost to Grumeti.
I was slightly disappointed with Grumeti on Saturday, but he did travel like much the best horse. I can’t have Pearl Swan for this, as i really don’t think he will travel well enough for the Triumph. Plus all trends indicate him being a no-no. Can’t have Baby Mix/Hinterland, i don’t think King will run anything else in this and i’ve no knowledge on what Henderson has for the race currently.
Dildar is clearly going to be useful, but he would need to improve on all facets to be prove a likely Triumph winner i think.
I dont think he has beaten crap all his life. I thought Punchestown was a very very good horse. However, the champion hurdle attracts the best 2 milers hurdlers, the gold cup attracts the best 3 mile chaser. Does the stayers hurdle really attract the best horses to run at that distance??…i dont think so because they are either gone chasing or gone back to show speed at lesser distances. I think the combination of BBs ability with the nature of the opposition he likely to meet means he could go another 3 or 3 years unbeaten.
But Timeform ratings (shown above) for the best staying hurdlers of the last few years (even without Big Buck’s) – stand up really well against the best 2 mile hurdlers ratings. So judging by Timeform ratings SHL, you are clearly wrong. BB
has
beaten several staying hurdlers over the years that have been at least of
equal (if not better) ability
than the best 2 mile hurdlers of the same era. Don’t know what the BHA marks were, be surprised if it is vastly different.
You might have been right 20 or 30 years ago, but not these days.
Comparing the 2 Mile and 3 Mile division is practically impossible. Obviously they are all rated in relation to those in their division and cross comparisons seem frankly difficult. Secondly, 2 Mile Hurdlers are alot lot faster, whilst the staying hurdlers are the opposite. Both have very different skill-sets. I will say this ; How Time For Rupert was rated at a similar level to some Champion Hurdlers i’ll never know.
I think Big Bucks might be a little overated in the sense that he is clearly racking up a sequence largely in very uncontested races outside of the Festivals. He’s clearly an exceptional horse, but i’d be hesistant to say he’s the best horse in training (he’s not the best horse in his own yard IMO).
Since going hurdling, looking at what he’s beat is perhaps a tad misleading. Of the sequence :
1st – Beat Don’t Push it (A plodder) in a handicap. Don’t Push it is a good horse, but never translated his ability into true
reliable
graded ability
2nd – Beat Punchestown. Fair along in 3rd.
3rd – Beat Punchestown. Punchestown looked like a very talented horse, but did not translate to fences at all and has achieved very little since the stayers division.
4th – Beat Mighty man. Very good horse (beaten by both My Way de Solzen/Inglish Drever) but was facing Big Bucks are long injury.
5th – Beat Lough Derg. Admirable handicapper but nothing more
6th – Beat Karabak and Diamond Harry. Karabak has won just once in open company since his Novice days, whilst Diamond Harry has yet to win against the elite in an non-handicap.
7th – Beat Time For Rupert. In my view very overated and has failed to reach the elite over Fences
8th – Beat Souffleur. Not much else to say
9th – Beat Duc De Regneire. Talented horse but not elite
10th – Beat Lough Derg
11th – Beat Grand Crus
12th – Beat Grand Crus. Now initially this looks like the best opponent he has beaten. But im still wary of Grand Crus and will wait until he either is tested in the Gold Cup or generally outside of Novice company. I remember being very keen on Punchestown going into the Festival, and have become wary of hyped staying hurdlers going over Fences. Still a true question mark for me.
13th – Beat Five Dream
14th – Beat Five Dream
15th – Beat Dynaste. I think Dynaste is actually a very good horse, as showed when getting Big Bucks off the birdle relatively early.
There is no doubt Big Bucks has beaten some very talented opponents. However, some failed to progress such as Punchestowns, Karabak, Diamond Harry, Time For Rupert, others were not top class ; Lough Derb, Soufflier. I think Big Bucks is an exceptional horse who has been remarkably consistent but im not sure the competition has been as strong as percieved.
