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Thanks shank
Heard any news of hammersly lake?
Shack has mentioned a couple, though i don’t see Lyvius being a Triumph horse
I’ve watched Hammersly Lake’s races in France and he doesn’t seem good enoughThere’s another yet to run in this country that is as exciting as Captain Conan but is built more like a hurdler. It’s whether he’s ready or not.
Ted Spread’s rating’s not too bad actually, wonder if they’ll go for the Martin Pipe with him.
Did a fair chunk of Triumph studying last night, although nowhere near finished.
Come to the conclusion that the current load of favourites for the Triumph are all dreadful. We need something to make an amazing debut in the Adonis or for Grumeti to hack up.
Dildar needs something resembling an Act of God.
I’ve only collated data since 2005 since I wanted to get the pre-Triumph RPRs for each runner (ratings are regularly changed after big races, ie. Zarkandar rated RPR139 for his Adonis victory pre-Triumph, afterwards they raised his rating to 143).
And what’s interesting is that without fail, the top 2 horses in the Triumph have failed every year.
In 2007, Katchit was joint-2nd rated with 3 other horses.
Otherwise every year they’ve both failed. Akilak & Faasel in 2005, Afsoun and Kasbah Bliss joint-top rated in 2006, Lounaos in 2007 (like I said, 4 joint-2nd highest rated so can’t eliminate anything there), Franchoek & Five Dream in 2008, Walkon & Starluck in 2009, Alaivan & Carlito Brigante in 2010 (joint-top rated) and then Grandouet & Sam Winner last year.
The only one who came even close to winning was Faasel.
It’s also funny looking back & seeing how downright dreadful the Triumph that Soldatino won was. If people didn’t write ‘Soldatino won the Triumph’ but ‘Soldatino beat Barizan by 1 1/4L’, I think people would actually realise that he’s downright ordinary.
Ok, I’ve done the analysis and have come up with the following truths that cannot possibly be disputed based on the data.
1) This is a God awful renewal of the Triumph & anybody who bets more than 50p on it is utterly insane.
2) Grumeti will be placed.
3) Minsk is by a street the horse I’d most want to be on at the moment, despite being Irish-trained.
I don’t rate Soldatino that highly either.
And i’ll be very surprised if we’ve seen this years winner run in this country yet.
Ok, I’ve done the analysis and have come up with the following truths that cannot possibly be disputed based on the data.
1) This is a God awful renewal of the Triumph & anybody who bets more than 50p on it is utterly insane.
2) Grumeti will be placed.
3) Minsk is by a street the horse I’d most want to be on at the moment, despite being Irish-trained.
1) We say this every year. Soldatino’s renewal was shocking, i don’t think this is. You’re simply confusing question marks with ability. It’s simply very hard to decipher the winner currently. I remember last year thinking the Triumph was very poor.
2) I agree. Can’t see him not being placed and much prefer him to Pearl Swan
3) Perhaps, but an unraced irish trained horse isn’t exactly appealing no matter how good his flat form was. I wouldn’t touch him.
I don’t care who says what every year. People say stuff every year I completely disagree with. Looking at the figures of the market leaders going into the race, they are vastly inferior to 4 of the last 5 years. 3 of them won at least non-novice Grade 2s after winning the Triumph while Zarkandar hasn’t run yet. And you’d be extremely surprised what ratings & stats can tell you going into a race. I don’t treat them as gospel but they are extremely revealing. Some of the information you find out is extraordinary. People rate Aidan O’Brien as a genius trainer. Believe me. Seeing the data I have seen, he is a lot more than a genius trainer.
8 horses in the last 3 renewals of the Triumph posted a RPR on their debuts in excess of 134. 5 of those 8 had posted those figures by this point in their years. The other 3 came from the Adonis.
So far, not a single one this year. Very, very poor. I’m looking for a big run from Minsk, Une Artiste or Lyvius and looking at the breeding, I expect that to come from Minsk.
Not trying to be smart Zarkava but why have you changed your views on Grumetti and Minsk,you slatted me for suggesting these two?
He’d be too slow to win last year’s Triumph. Perhaps he’s not too slow to win this year’s.
Think everyone has underestimated the potential of Dildar after his(some might say) lacklustre debut. The Adonis will be the making of him in my opinion, and the Triumph will be his for the taking.
Then again, it will be interesting to see what a certain Mr Henderson has up his sleeve.
Dildar is just too $hit I’m afraid, Boz. RPR104 on his debut? Would have to be the worst Triumph in the history of mankind for him to be good enough.
Dildar is just too $hit I’m afraid, Boz. RPR104 on his debut? Would have to be the worst Triumph in the history of mankind for him to be good enough.
Would you sell the bet you had on him for the triumph ?…the horses you refer too as **** such as Binocular and Long Run are anything but.
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