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Solid if not spectacular from Dildar at Taunton. Needs to improve his jumping a great deal.
Front 2 pulled well clear of the remainder. Also don’t forget that’s Dildar’s first run since May, first run since being gelded and his first run over hurdles. The runner-up has already had a few runs and finished 2nd on his hurdling debut a fortnight ago. I wouldn’t dismiss the form that quickly.
It’s going to get smashed in the Adonis.
Henderson has one that is likely to start favourite for the Triumph if he performs as expected on his debut.
I’ve just backed Urbain De Sivola at 20s each way. Smashed Ranjaan LTO and runs this weekend. Dildar only workmanlike for me, and I’d put him below Grumeti/Pearl Swan/Urbain De Sivola/Ranjaan and Hollow Tree, albeit he has more scope for improvement.
But he needs to.
Staggering that a couple of bookmakers have cut Dildar. He just about managed to outspeed a 7yo maiden who was conceding 11lbs. On that evidence 33/1 would be on the skinny side. Bookmakers must be loving this market.
I think you’re giving him unfair stick for that. No he wasn’t spectacular, but he was making his debut and will come on a lot for it. He looked very novicey but I suspect that run will have done him the world of good. Ruby never had him at full tilt and I’m sure the best is yet to come. Too early to rule him out.
I’ve just backed Urbain De Sivola at 20s each way. Smashed Ranjaan LTO and runs this weekend. Dildar only workmanlike for me, and I’d put him below Grumeti/Pearl Swan/Urbain De Sivola/Ranjaan and Hollow Tree, albeit he has more scope for improvement.
But he needs to.
2nd, 3rd and 4th behind UDS in his facile victory at Newbury all winners since (have won 4 among them)
No question at all imo he is the value
Anyone have any thoughts on Ut De Sivola
Looks the right type for the race and has the right connections. Hasn’t done anything wrong yet either. I suppose the Grade 1 next month at Leopardstown will tell us more about the Irish 4yo’s.
Well Ut De Sivola’s Grade 1 form took a bit of a hit the other day. He’s also French-bred through and through and Irish-trained to boot. Couldn’t really get much worse than that.
Urbain De Sivola I don’t like also because he’s French-bred, but also because I really don’t like juvenile hurdlers that win by those sort of distances because it’s almost always down to stamina rather than speed. I very much doubt he’ll have anything like the pace required to win a Triumph.
MARK TT
Do you know or rumoured Nickys number one for this- I do think he must have one in mind?
Dildar
Having watched the race a couple of times, I didn’t think the debut was at all bad. Ruby rode him to give some experience – he was amenable to restraint,and clever two out.
I think it took him a while to get it after the last and there is substantial improvement to come.
I have to agree I got the distinct impression Ruby was deliberately messing about a bit and making sure he wasn’t going to just run round on the bridle and learn nothing. Bit dodgy at the 3rd last but Ruby just let him do his own thing and showed a lot of confidence in the horse’s ability to pick up and go on whenever he wished.
He’s off to Kempton next and you can bet you’ll see a much better performance.
Pound to a penny Ruby rides him in the Triumph and not Pearl Swan.
Can’t believe he’s still 14/1 with PN’s record in the race. I think he could be a right horse.
Those who have backed and talked up an unraced horse I can understand you wanting to cling to the idea of him somehow finding masses of improvement. Teaching him something? It was a very ordinary novice hurdle and at one stage you would have been slightly concerned about him even winning.
It is pure guesswork as to how much improvement he will make, if any, but on yesterday’s performance he wins nothing. The surprise was only that more bookmakers didn’t push him out. He now faces a much stiffer target before the Festival and for me the downside is far bigger than the upside.
Interesting that Ted Spread won easily yesterday in an ok handicap hurdle. Gives a form boost to Grumeti.
I was slightly disappointed with Grumeti on Saturday, but he did travel like much the best horse. I can’t have Pearl Swan for this, as i really don’t think he will travel well enough for the Triumph. Plus all trends indicate him being a no-no. Can’t have Baby Mix/Hinterland, i don’t think King will run anything else in this and i’ve no knowledge on what Henderson has for the race currently.
Dildar is clearly going to be useful, but he would need to improve on all facets to be prove a likely Triumph winner i think.
Those who have backed and talked up an unraced horse I can understand you wanting to cling to the idea of him somehow finding masses of improvement. Teaching him something? It was a very ordinary novice hurdle and at one stage you would have been slightly concerned about him even winning.
It is pure guesswork as to how much improvement he will make, if any, but on yesterday’s performance he wins nothing. The surprise was only that more bookmakers didn’t push him out. He now faces a much stiffer target before the Festival and for me the downside is far bigger than the upside.
I’ve neither backed him nor talked him up. If I thought estimating improvement was pure guesswork, I’d give the game up. He’ll come on at least 10lbs for that imo.
He’s a very good looking horse too – reminded me a bit of the great Bula. Also, when a horse of little experience is so amenable to restraint and willing to do what his jock wants at any stage of the race, I think that is a huge positive.
I will wait and see how my main bet UD Sivola fares at the weekend before deciding on a bet on Dildar but I’ll be surprised if he is not involved in the Triumph finish.
A lot of great horses lose on jumps debut. Jesus.
How anyone can derive either way if he is going to win the triumph is baffling. I got on the hype and am happy with a win. The triumph looks so week at the moment it is laughable, basically if grumeti, pearl swan, and all behind finish like they do none of them are stars that’s for sure and i am tempted to lay the lot of them. Simply henderson will have something up his sleeve, Dildar will improve but to what standard who knows. Another positive from dildar is he had loads of work to do after the last and put it to bed smartly enough. My major concern with him is his jumping ok the odd mistake but he looked distinctly messy over every single one and if he loses a length or two at each jump he has no chance.
Sadlers is the one to be on at the moment. Jumped efficiently, put a novice field at a decent track to bed with ease, Hobbs did the job in similar style with Detroit city so it has to be him at 8-1.
THen wait for the adonis and look for a monster.
MARK TT
Do you know or rumoured Nickys number one for this- I do think he must have one in mind?
Une Artiste could be the one. Simon Munir owned, goes for the Adonis.
Lyvius is another one of his to be unleashed soon,
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