- This topic has 261 replies, 36 voices, and was last updated 14 years, 1 month ago by
.
- Posts
Interesting trial today between Baby Mix and Grumeti.
I could be totally wrong but there’s way too much not to like about Baby Mix to be backing him to win this.
I thought the Hinterland race was no better than a normal every day novice hurdle the way the Nichols horse ran. He was never travelling that well for a supposedly high class horse and when his cruising speed alone should have carried him miles clear of some pretty useless horses but instead at the top of the hill the entire field found themselves back in the race with a chance.
Baby Mix has got an engine but he’s also a bit eratic has a horrible head carriage he went of totally unfancied at 14/1 despite Tom George’s after timing speech saying he thought he was a bit special.
Grumeti on the other hand is a well put together individual well balanced horse with a very high cruising speed. He certainly won’t be stopping like Hinterland did and I reckon he’ll put Baby Mix right in his place and be fav for the Triumph after today.+
Hollow Tree won’t go down without a fight. Hinterland was somewhat flattered by the distance he beat him at Cheltenham. Ruby very cleverly took Hinterland deliberately wide to find the good in places ground was while the not so bright Timmy Murphy stuck to the inside which cost him more than a couple of lengths. Perhaps he may not have beaten Hinterland but had he done so he would be 4 for 4.
One of these will be Triumph Hurdle favourite after today and Grumeti looks the most likely to come out on top.
It would seem PN’s main hope for the Triumph has always been Dildar . So the same guy from Ditchat who was touting Zarkandar last year was saying last night.. there has been some decent bets struck on him lately so there could be some truth to it. No doubt if he comes out and wind an egg and spoon race he’ll be near enough fav so should be worth a back to lay at least
POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP POP.
Not good for ante-post backers so far is it?
Hinterland blows out finding zilch off the bridle and although Brennan made a complete horlicks of the second last hard to make real excuses for a woeful display by Baby Mix. On that evidence the Timeform sqiggle must be hovering already.
Waters remain very murky.
French-bred Nicholls 4yo 5/1 fav with Billy for the Triumph. I seriously need to become a bookmaker if you can offer prices like that and still get customers.
I’ve just backed Dildar because quite frankly all the 4yos I’ve seen this year, with the possible slight exception of Sadler’s Risk, are $h!t or not right for the race.
Easily the worst ante-post race for me so far. I don’t expect Hinterland to redress the situation. Had a little each-way on Sportsmaster at 25/1. Form is on a par with the best of the Irish and should be able to find a few pounds for better ground and a change of jockey. Blinkers another option.
Hinterland, Baby Mix and now Grumeti all deposed favourites. Who was fav before Hinterland? If there were 1 market every year where I can have all the profit made, I would take the Triumph every single time. Beautiful, beautiful race.
If that’s PN’s intended Fred Winter horse then it speaks volumes about how good Dildar must be.
I went in for a bit more on Dildar before Hinterland, ran just hope he’s not dubbed up in his box come Chelteham.
I thought the jockey made way too much use of Grumeti and would have done better had he switched him off completely and kept well away from the hard pulling Baby Mix. While he just won (officially) I reckon he’ll be better when in a bigger field and could still be one to reckon with in March. Race fell into Ruby’s hands a bit and I doubt if he’d get so close to Grumeti if he got a better ride.
Nah come off it, if he’s getting beaten by a French-bred Nicholls 4yo, he’s simply too slow for the Triumph. Look at the list of previous winners. Other than Katchit, obviously a course specialist, they are all terrible horses. Actually Katchit’s included in that list but because he won the worst Champion Hurdle I’ve ever seen, I’m not allowed to call him any names or describe him with negative adjectives because people will shout at me and say ‘he won a Champion Hurdle’.
I’m with you, Hurdy. Pathetic that I’ve backed an unraced 4yo at 16/1 to win the Triumph Hurdle I know, but there are so many holes in the rest of them and he’ll surely hack up on his debut next week which will probably make him a 2/1fav knowing the bookies. Henderson’s got nothing, forget the Irish, they never win it, forget anything that’s French-bred and forget anything that’s clearly not good enough. Leaves us with Dildar and Sadler’s Risk.
Triumph stats;
Paul Nicholls’ FR-bred Triumph Hurdle runners since 2002 finished 806466004
Those horses included Sud Bleu, Vol Solitaire, Le Duc, Cerium, Turko, Poquelin, 5Dream, Advisor & Sam Winner. Vol Solitaire won today’s trial that Grumeti won & finished 10th. Doesn’t bode well for Pearl Swan.
Things may look slightly better for Hinterland though as he won the Triumph trial back in November, a race that Nicholls has won twice before. Those horses fared in the Triumph as so; 44 (Cerium & Sam Winner). A chance of a place doesn’t look a forlorn hope.
Paul Nicholls’ IRE-bred Triumph Hurdle runners since 2002 finished 119
Celestial Halo, Zarkandar & Brampour.
The winners of today’s trial since 1989 finished 822130B004363962 in the Triumph. The 221 at the beginning of the form belongs to Alan King runners – Grumeti looks a place banker to me.
53 French-bred horses have run in the Triumph Hurdle since 2002. 2 won, 2 placed – both winners & 1 placed horse were trained by Nicky Henderson. The remaining placed horse, Walkon, trained by Alan King, finished 2nd to one of the FR bred winners.
What does this tell me?
Tells me that as long as Dildar makes it to the race on the back of a decent performance at Taunton or Ludlow, he’ll be extremely difficult to oppose. Grumeti looks a place banker as I said, while Hinterland & Pearl Swan should be opposed for the win with all your might, especially the latter.
Just looking at Sadler’s Risk, perhaps it’s a coincidence but all 3 career wins have come going right-handed, and being an ex-flat horse, a course like Kempton will have suited him a great deal.
I am still adamant we have not yet seen the Triumph winner!!
Hopefully DILDAR will prove what Nick Skelton believes and win well tomorrow and then it is on to the Adonis and I would guess whatever wins that from the Nicholls/Henderson yards will be the new favourite
Was given Dildar in September, seen one punter with 900 win at 20s, surprised took so long for gamble to happen, can’t see any bookie going bigger than 12s currently, rumours say he is better than Zarkander.
Well Dildar will not be winning the Triumph on that run! Did not jump at all well, extremely novicey which is disappointing as Dan Skelton had described him as a nifty and clean jumper! Possibly the ground but not for me
Comments from Mr Nicholls this morning would make you think Peral Swan is there main hope for this race.
Have to wait for the Adonis i guess and see.
Solid if not spectacular from Dildar at Taunton. Needs to improve his jumping a great deal.
Front 2 pulled well clear of the remainder. Also don’t forget that’s Dildar’s first run since May, first run since being gelded and his first run over hurdles. The runner-up has already had a few runs and finished 2nd on his hurdling debut a fortnight ago. I wouldn’t dismiss the form that quickly.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.