- This topic has 498 replies, 85 voices, and was last updated 14 years, 1 month ago by
.
- Posts
No Quito, Magnanimity a no hoper on this year’s form, looks like I won’t be having a bet in this year’s Gold Cup unless Grand Crus goes here, even then I’m finding it hard to build up any enthusiasm
I can’t bring my self to back either of the two favourites and I can see any alternative either, anyone know if Wolverhampton have a meeting on the Friday?
Oh CS you shame yourself! The opportunity to watch one of our own regain the gold cup again and hence catapult himself to the highest eschalons of equine history, and you would rather turn off the tv because you don’t see any value in the race?
Check yourself sir, I believe you have mislaid the heart and soul of national hunt racing somewhere in your wallet!
Well, Mordin seems to have found one to put it up to Long Run and Kauto at least ;
POSTED ON FEBRUARY 14, 2012
IS QUEL ESPRIT A CHAMPION HIDING IN PLAIN SIGHT?
QUEL ESPRIT (42) won the Hennessy Gold Cup in seriously fast time. In fact he ran fast enough to have a major chance in the Cheltenham Gold Cup on my ratings.
Willie Mullins charge jumped boldly at a good pace and then actually increased the gallop down the backstraight to the point where he was almost going unsustainably fast. The gallop was enough to burn off the challenge of the smart Bostons Angel and see that one finish nearly twenty lengths behind. But Quel Esprit just kept on rolling to score by a couple of lengths.
Quel Esprit has now won all five of his completed starts over fences when you include his point to point win. And he might well have won the three times he’s tipped up as well. He’s now run a Gold Cup class time twice in a row and closely matches the statistical profile of recent Gold Cup winners – something you can’t say about any of the favourites for the big race.
Seeing that he’s a really deep chested sort, it’s no big surprise that Quel Esprit was able to show such stamina here. Few horses could keep going to win a Grade 1 three mile chase after setting the kind of pace he did here. This being so the extra two and a half furlongs and uphill finish at Cheltenham look to be strongly in his favour.
I know that most see this win as being well off what’s required to win a Cheltenham Gold Cup. But that’s not what sectional times or my ratings say. In fact I’m beginning to suspect that Quel Esprit may actually be a champion hiding in plain sight. After all he can do no more than win every time he stands up while taking one of the top three mile chases in the process.
As I see it, talk of cutting Quel Esprit back to 2m 5f for the Ryanair is daft Stamina is clearly his strong suit, so the Gold Cup just has to be his target. I like his chances of taking that race and love his odds of 20-1.
Runner Up ROBERTO GOLDBACK (41) was kept wide of the other runners. This is understandable. He tends to get into trouble with his jumping when crowded in big fields. In fact he’s tipped up or finished far back all five times he’s run in chases with ten or more runners since his first success over fences in a 12 runner race against inferior rivals.
Three miles is clearly Roberto Goldback’s distance. He would have won both previous times he’d run the distance but for unseating at the last when leading in last year’s Guinness Gold Cup at the Punchestown Festival. His connections are understandably keen on going for that race again rather than tackling a big field at Cheltenham. And I can easily see him winning as long as the field is small enough.
Third placed TREACLE (39) benefited from being held up off the searching pace, coming through to pass tired rivals in the closing stages. He’s a smart horse on his first two starts of the season or with a six week plus break thereafter. No doubt his official rating of 132 will rise significantly after this. But it should still be low enough to give him a good chance of winning another valuable handicap next time he comes into a race off a break.
I like Quel Esprit, as much for the glint in Willie’s eye as anything else.
Sometimes its the ‘soft’ factors that can give an edge over ratings, times and trends.
Not always but sometimes.The whole world and his dog knows that Quel Esprit can’t win the Gold Cup. But Nick reckons he can because of his speed ratings. The guy’s a loon. He’s intelligent, but a loon nonetheless.
was this the same "glint in the eye" that was seen in my local postman just before I was concieved
Oh CS you shame yourself! The opportunity to watch one of our own regain the gold cup again and hence catapult himself to the highest eschalons of equine history, and you would rather turn off the tv because you don’t see any value in the race?
Check yourself sir, I believe you have mislaid the heart and soul of national hunt racing somewhere in your wallet!
The "Wolverhampton" comment was 100% a joke, of course I’ll watch the race.
PS As I’m neither French nor English, he’s not "One of my own"
The last Scottish horse good enough to win a Gold Cup was Freddie and he had the misfortune to be foaled in the same years as Arkle & Mill HouseShark Hanlon says Quel Esprit has no chance. Said Midnight Chase can only win if the others fall.
Andrew Lynch thinks Long Run will win.
Davy Russell says Kauto Star no chance, Long Run likely winner but likes Midnight Chase’s times this season. Also says Magnanimity doesn’t run. He also put up Midnight Chase as his charity bet.
Desperately unimpressive stuff from Long Run. Comparing that peformance to Sprinter Sacre is like chalk and cheese, yet theres not much difference in price. Amazed he’s still the price he is, must be the lay of the meeting now.
Didn’t think it was too bad. Gave 10lbs to the field, jumped better than in previous outings.
WAF 3.5 lenghts away and 10lbs better off. That’s not too shabby. Burton has improved mind.
Giving 10 lbs away that wasn’t as bad as you maybe think! Jumped far better this time round and will still take all the beating come March 16th however will Grand Crus connections maybe feel more confident?
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.