2012 Gold Cup

Personally I think those who are saying that Long Run and Kauto are miles clear of the opposition and only have to turn up to have the race between them, are somewhat missing the point.

For me thats going too much on the Betfair chase and the King George. Neither of those two faced much opposition there, I think they were both weak races. look how a 12 year old in Kauto (who is in my view, clearly past his best) bullied it from the front, and the only one to put it up to him was Long Run, the rest were so poor they hardly got a blow in. If it was a decent King George, that just wouldn’t have happened. But in my view it was anything but.

I can see the logic of thinking that theres nothing much in the Gold Cup either, and that it’s just as weak. But traditonally the Gold Cup has been stronger than those two races, and thats where I think applying the same logic could turn out to be dangerous.

There are horses in the Gold Cup in my view, who are capable of considerable improvement. Midnight Chase, Quito De La Roque, Grands Cru (if he runs) spring to mind. I have in the past been dismissive of Synchronised and the horse who won yesterday, Quel Esprit, but throw them into the mix and you actually have the makings of quite a competitive Gold Cup.

My main point, I suppose, is that in my view the two races Kauto has won this season haven’t been great races, (for example Grands Cru’s winning time at kempton was quicker than the King George, which says at lot) and it says more about the weakness of Long Run’s challenge that it says about Kauto.

Why people are jumping over themselves to back Long Run at 2-1, quite frankly is beyond me.

CS, after your last attempt at judging a horse’s ability (managed to pick a 100/1 shot for the big day beaten 69 lengths in the worst Gold Cup trial run in 6 years), if I were you I’d leave other people to judge how good Long Run is.

OK, so I made my self a soft target by looking beyong the bleeding obvious. I’m not the only proven good judge on this forum that fancied the horse on last years form. I’d prefer to be judged on my overall record over several seasons on TRF rather than by slated for trying to unearth a big price winner. As it is I’ll have to settle for the 50/1, 40/1, 33/1, 25/1 winners I’ve put up in the past along with plenty other double figure winners from the far left field

Regardless of his finishing position I thought Magnaminty was going OK before the two errors. RP analysis (I Quote)

"Tracked leaders, 4th halfway, slight mistake 5 out, mistake next and sprawled badly on landing, dropped to rear, eased when beaten in straight, tailed off"
"The finishing position of Magnanimity was thoroughly exacerbated by a horrible blunder four out from which he never recovered"

Whilst I’d agree that I don’t think we saw the 2012 Gold Cup winner in yesterday’s Hennessey, I do think there’s a good chance we saw the 2013 Gold Cup winner earlier in the day

If you want to judge me on Long Run let the race itself be the basis for yoor prosecution

Something was definitely amiss with CC last time, would be a slight worry for me but is in good hands. His Haldon run was littered with jumping mistakes and was well beaten in the KG, and I’m dubious if that run proved he stays 3 miles plus. But then he has good form at Cheltenham (2 from 4) and has shown a liking for good ground. All in all, a bit iffy for me but could be worth an ew shout. The Arkle -> Gold Cup connection is interesting, I suppose the top 2m race for novices is a good blueprint for horses harbouring GC hopes in the future.

Personally I think those who are saying that Long Run and Kauto are miles clear of the opposition and only have to turn up to have the race between them, are somewhat missing the point.

Missing what point? On ratings, form and all trends known, it’s true.

For me thats going too much on the Betfair chase and the King George. Neither of those two faced much opposition there, I think they were both weak races. look how a 12 year old in Kauto (who is in my view, clearly past his best) bullied it from the front, and the only one to put it up to him was Long Run, the rest were so poor they hardly got a blow in. If it was a decent King George, that just wouldn’t have happened. But in my view it was anything but.

Captain Chris, Weirld Al, Somersby, Diamond Harry etc are all good horses. Thet were all put in their place. The rest of those horses in behind are basically the best of the rest. I fail to see any valid argument here.

I can see the logic of thinking that theres nothing much in the Gold Cup either, and that it’s just as weak. But traditonally the Gold Cup has been stronger than those two races, and thats where I think applying the same logic could turn out to be dangerous.

For a race to be a stronger, you have to mention other viable opposition. The Gold Cup is a different test, but i’d have more respect for your argument if you lead with the argument that it provides very different conditions that may not lend itself to the two principles (Kauto really).

There are horses in the Gold Cup in my view, who are capable of considerable improvement. Midnight Chase, Quito De La Roque, Grands Cru (if he runs) spring to mind. I have in the past been dismissive of Synchronised and the horse who won yesterday, Quel Esprit, but throw them into the mix and you actually have the makings of quite a competitive Gold Cup.

Considerable improvement? Well yes, they’d need to on all known form. Midnight Chase was outclassed last year, put up a respectable but not particularly exciting debut performance and then won a race that absolutely fell apart and has no meaning or value to it. Midnight Chase will get absolutely destroyed by both the principles. You’d have to be a lunatic to think otherwise, and expecting random improvement seems ridiculous given age and experience.

Quito De La Roque is slow he won’t be closer enough down the hill to have any chance. Kauto may not really see out the trip, but he has so many more gears than Quito De La Roque that will be so far ahead rounding the turn it won’t matter. He only won his seasonal debut because Sizing Europe doesn’t stay and The Nightingale didn’t either. You do need some speed to win a Gold Cup unfortunately.

Grand Crus is basically the exact opposite of Quito De La Roque. He’s yet to prove to me he can handle the Gold Cup trip and to my eyes would hold an outstanding chance in either 2 and half mile race. He’s untested outside of Novice company and has definite stamina concerns that make him almost unbackable for this, no matter how interesting a runner he is.

Synchronised is a plodder who needs very soft ground and won’t get it. Again, he lacks the speed to win any normal Gold Cup.

Quel Esprit is a little interesting, but on form he is still along way behind the two principles. He himself still has concerns (jumping) and what he beat at the weekend is relative trash compared to the abilities of Long Run and Kauto Star. He’s a viable outsider definitely, but it’s a stretch to believe it’s very likely.

My main point, I suppose, is that in my view the two races Kauto has won this season haven’t been great races, (for example Grands Cru’s winning time at kempton was quicker than the King George, which says at lot) and it says more about the weakness of Long Run’s challenge that it says about Kauto.

Why people are jumping over themselves to back Long Run at 2-1, quite frankly is beyond me.

Grand Crus’s winning time at kempton was faster because they went a faster pace. Cross comparisons of times unfortunately have distinct limitations. Kauto Star clearly isn’t at his peak powers, but he’s still the 3 Miler Chaser around. His downfall will be the hill and the couple of furlongs IMO, something Long Run will love.

There really isn’t much depth to this race and on all known form, it’s difficult to suggest any viable outsider.

Maybe you’re right j17, maybe i’m just constructing an argument to suit a view I already have.

However history shows us that horses’ that win consecutive Gold Cups tend to be exceptional, and i’ve just never held the view that Long Run is an exceptional horse. If people believe that he is, or that the opposition is so mediocre that he’ll be able to win on default, then good luck to them, but I won’t be joining them.

As for Kauto Star, i’ve never backed a 12 year old in the Gold Cup and I don’t intend to start now. If he win’s i’ll hold my hands up but I just can’t see it.

I just take the view that the Betfair Chase and King George were quite ordinary and uncompetitive races by comparison with previous years, and thats there at least remains the possibility that the Gold Cup will be far more competitive.

Maybe i’d respect your opinion more than instead of disparaging my argument in rather an insulting way, you respected my right to hold that opinion.

Maybe you’re right j17, maybe i’m just constructing an argument to suit a view I already have.

Well yes, otherwise you’d be the worst debater since Jade Goody.

However history shows us that horses’ that win consecutive Gold Cups tend to be exceptional, and i’ve just never held the view that Long Run is an exceptional horse. If people believe that he is, or that the opposition is so mediocre that he’ll be able to win on default, then good luck to them, but I won’t be joining them.

Historically yes, although i’d state that it is often very dependant on a number of factors ; one being strength of opposition. Best Mate won 3 Gold Cups, and i have him as significantly inferior to kauto Star or a peak Denman.

I also don’t think Long Run is an exceptional horse. Yet, it is difficult to see past him for numerous reasons. The Gold Cup suits him down to the ground. He’s not a slow horse, but the further he goes, the better he is. We take Kauto Star out of the frame, and he’s demolished everything else. Whether that is a compliment to Long Run, or speaks about the rest, it doesn’t really matter. The opposition is very medicore this year. When Quito De La Roque is proposed as a potential winner, you know it’s a poor year.

As for Kauto Star, i’ve never backed a 12 year old in the Gold Cup and I don’t intend to start now. If he win’s i’ll hold my hands up but I just can’t see it.

Which is fair, and i struggle to see Kauto Star lasting home. Unfortunately for most of the opposition, if we assume Kauto star remains in the form he showed this season (I.e he doesn’t bomb) he has far too many gears for nearly all the others to get that close. Imperial Commander, Long Run etc are very good horses, and were able to maintain a position good enough to see the hill have an adverse impact on Kauto. Horses like Quito or Midnight Chase do not have that quality, and will be beaten a long way out.

Meanwhile Grand Crus i can envisage possessing the ability to be travelling very well, but i have serious stamina doubts about him.

I just take the view that the Betfair Chase and King George were quite ordinary and uncompetitive races by comparison with previous years, and thats there at least remains the possibility that the Gold Cup will be far more competitive.

It was no more ordinary than many of Kauto’s betfair/King George wins. He has them off the bridge a long way and out and destroys them. The only different this year has been he doesn’t quite have the acceleration he once had, and Long Run is a very good horse.

We’ve gone through all the possible alternatives, and i can’t see how any of them are particularly viable.

Maybe i’d respect your opinion more than instead of disparaging my argument in rather an insulting way, you respected my right to hold that opinion.

I reasoned why i disagree with your initial premise. I am not going to post in the manner of a friendly middle aged man who seems perrenially merry (Note, i am not implying you are this stereotype). Using the idea in an argument that everybody is allowed an opinion can often imply that one end of the argument wishes not to use logic/reasoning but rather by saying their entitled to that particular opinion. I find this a relatively fruitless exercise, and if i disagree i will say so without the above. Seems pointless to me.

Incidentally, since i’m on the subject of disparaging your arguments (as you seem so keen to disparage mine) lets look at another couple of your points.

J17star
Mon Feb 13, 2012 6:41 pm

elgransenor1 wrote:Personally I think those who are saying that Long Run and Kauto are miles clear of the opposition and only have to turn up to have the race between them, are somewhat missing the point.

Missing what point? On ratings, form and all trends known, it’s true.

elgransenor1 wrote:For me thats going too much on the Betfair chase and the King George. Neither of those two faced much opposition there, I think they were both weak races. look how a 12 year old in Kauto (who is in my view, clearly past his best) bullied it from the front, and the only one to put it up to him was Long Run, the rest were so poor they hardly got a blow in. If it was a decent King George, that just wouldn’t have happened. But in my view it was anything but.

Captain Chris, Weirld Al, Somersby, Diamond Harry etc are all good horses. Thet were all put in their place. The rest of those horses in behind are basically the best of the rest. I fail to see any valid argument here.

Saying that i’m missing what point? The point i’m making is that horse’s often come of age in the Gold Cup itself. If the race was run on paper, then yes you’re right Kauto and Long Run would probably dominate. Unfortunately for you and others lumping on those horses at short prices, it isn’t. Almost every horse that has beaten Kauto Star in the past had a lower rating (and in most cases a much lower rating) going into the race. So perhaps you’re the one missing the point.

You mention these horses Captain Chris, Weird Al, Somersby, and Diamond Harry. I’ve never massively rated any of those with the exception of Weird al.

Captain Chris, something has clearly gone wrong with him this season. He was dreadful last time out, maybe he’s just lost his confidence. It’s also unclear that he actually gets three miles.
Somersby, always seems to travel well but often finds very little. In a sense he’s exposed at the top level.

I’d probably say the same about Diamond Harry. he’s often hung in his races and he lacks conviction in the finish. As for Weird Al, i’m going to say that he’s best fresh and the Charlie Hall took the edge off him. His racing history suggests that he needs a longer break than he did between Wetherby and Haydock. He’ll be fresh for Cheltenham, a course he loves, where I think he’ll again be very dangerous. He doesn’t have much to find with the favourite anyway, on form.

I just take the view that the Gold Cup isn’t the cut and dried job you seem to be making it out to be.

For example you say that Midnight Chase got outclassed last year. But for me he jumped poorly up front, and that was possibly because he wasn’t used to being put under pressure and lacked in experience. You’ll probably say now "how can you say he lacks in experience when he’s older than Long Run" but every horse is different and they don’t all develop at the same speed. He may well "lack the class" to win a Gold Cup, but I certainly don’t think he’ll be "absolutely destroyed" by the two principals, as you suggest.

He was beaten along way last time, has many pounds to find on the book and lacks the required crusing speed or acceleration to live with the principles. Of all the possible alternatives given, this is the least viable. We’ve been here before. He was put in his place last year, and the same will happen again. He isn’t good enough. He’s nowhere near good enough. His debut performance wasn’t anything inspiration and his last win was a product of the race falling apart rather than him developing into a legit Gold Cup contender. All the main protoganists bombed, leaving an old lazy and ever slowing Tidal Bay to finish 2nd.

I can’t agree that Quito De La Roque is just a slow plodder. he won at Aintree on good ground last year. I don’t think you can win on spring ground on a flat track like aintree if you’re some plodder who needs five miles.

The form if his Aintree win is worth nothing in relation to constructing an argument for him winning a Gold Cup. He beat Sarando a neck, with Golan Way in 3rd and Wayward Prince in 4th. I feel like i don’t even need to expand on that piece of form ; the implications are not difficult understand. He’s not good enough to win a Gold Cup.

Also i’m not so sure you need to be a speedster to win a Gold Cup. The history of the Gold Cup is littered with winners that weren’t exactly quick. See More Business, Jodami, Cool Ground, Norton’s Coin weren’t exactly speedsters. They were sloggers who could grind it out.

Recent winners include Best Mate, Kicking King, War of Attrition, Kauto Star and Imperial Commander. Horses who all showed speed in their younger days. Denman might be seen as the reverse, but i’ve never seen a horse with the galloping ability Denman had. No horse in this race has that type of ability. You don’t need to be a 2 Mile Champion horse to win a Gold Cup, but it usually helps if you have shown high class form as a younger horse over a shorter distance.

Ok if the ground is quick, then maybe you do need a horse like Kauto or Grand’s Crus who have gears. But if they ground is good to soft, which is often is in the Gold Cup, and theres a couple of horses that are upsides Kauto at the last, would you really fancy him to outslog them up the hill? I wouldn’t. What I don’t think Kauto wants is a battle these days, but its difficult to see him winning the race off the top bend like he has done in the past, which he’ll probably have to do.

Kauto Star and Grand Crus handle good to soft. If it was a bog, the equation changes. On Good to soft ground, a horse who has gears and a little bit of acceleration has a strong advantage.

If there are a couple of horses upsides Kauto at the last? And who are these horses. As discussed before, the majority of the projected field are not good enough to get themselves in such a position.

Quito De La Roque is supposedly too slow in your eyes to get upsides Kauto to even challenge, but we’ll see about that. I take the view that a horse like Quito De La Roque shouldn’t be categorised yet. He hasn’t had the chance to run against horses who are as highly rated as Kauto Star or Long Run. When he does, I expect his rating to go up accordingly.

Well if he is quick enough to beat Sarando then he’s quick enough to cruise with Kauto star i guess. He hasn’t had his chance, but we all have the ability to infer what the likely result is.

As for the stamina doubts you refer to with Grands Crus, you might be right about that but I have the same doubts about backing Long Run, a horse who’s been turned over twice this season while favourite, at 2-1, or backing a 12 year old in Kauto at scarcely better odds.

If i had any doubts about Long Run it’s jumping. The fact that he has been beaten twice this year doesn’t really concern me. He’s only been beaten by one horse, who is exceptional. The Cheltenham test suits Long Run much more than Kauto Star, and unfortunately i expect the roles to be reversed. Nothing else in the field has done anything this year that equates to the form Long Run has shown this year. It’s not like Long Run has bombed out.

As for Sychronised being a plodder, the same doubts were expressed about him before his last run, that he just wasn’t quick enough, but he ran away with that race didn’t he?

Against a bunch of medicore top class chasers within a very different test to the one the Gold Cup is likely to provide.

I can’t agreee with that i’m afraid. If trying to find the toughest, most durable, best staying and jumping horse in the country at the time makes it a false race, i’d rather have a false race over the true races like the king george anyday of the week