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And other than an egg and spoon race at Newbury, Time For Rupert hasn’t exactly lived up to his billing.
He was incredibly overated to begin with. Everybody seemed to fall in love with him because he jumped well and had won two weakish races around Cheltenham. He’s never been a fast horse and i couldn’t understand what he was ever considered a banker for the RSA.
It’s more likely that i consensually fornicate with Scarlett Johansson than it is for Midnight Chase to be placed in a Gold Cup.
Ergo, it’s not happening in any dimension outside of my sleeptime dreams.
Baby Mix ran a time very similar to Sam Winner’s in the December trial and has been more impressive than Grumeti yet they are the same price
Because Sam Winner won last year? If you’re going to use data to compound an argument or stance, atleast use data that has enough significant merit to it.
Why are we dimissing Gurmeti? I’ve seen no logical or analytical response that suggests Grumeti isn’t a contender for this.
Firstly, some discount him on the basis of Ted Spread running in the same race, and now we are devaluing the form of this race ; a race in which he did not complete.
He would have won on the Bridle by ten lengths. It wouldn’t have told us much, and any possible limitations would still be unkwown. So no, he isn’t a certainty to win the Triumph, but to imply he doesn’t have an above average chance of winning the Triuimemp seems rather incorrect and exaggerated at this time.
J17star….you may well be right, although I thought off a feather weight that he would be worth a e/w. Re the thoughts that he may be more of a stayer, the Lanzarote is 2m 5f, that’s the furthest he will have taken on. Previous runs over 2m, 2m 1f, and once 2m 3F. Perhaps the extra couple of furlongs will suit.
As it happens, I’ve been checking all morning for the prices to come out, i didn’t want to take the anti post, and at 11am bet365 are the first to price up…..looks like secret edge is missing, so it’s all academic now…oh well, back to the drawing board.
Ah, for some reason i thought the Lanzarote was 2 Miles. Thanks for the recorrection, not sure why i thought this.
The distance should suit, however i would still have preservations about him. His cruising speed and class might not be good enough for this, as admirable and tough as he is. But as he isn’t entered it no longer matters!
Well Nathaniel is a 3/4 brother to several 2+ milers. Whether he has speed or not, irrelevant, but needed 12 furlongs to win a maiden and finished 5th in a poor Champion Stakes whilst getting weight.
As for slaughtering Ted Spread, don’t like your argument. Hazy Tom demolished Sea of Thunder the other month. Sea of Thunder would’ve then bolted up over 3 miles at Cheltenham in a Graded novice hurdle but for falling at the last. Consequently everybody fell over themselves trying to get on Hazy Tom for the Supreme before he got smashed by over 6 lengths a week later.
I don’t want to see fairly quick horses beating slow horses by 30 lengths. I want to see quick horses beating other quick horses by 5 lengths. That’s why you get all these horses on the flat winning maidens by 7 lengths and getting 16/1 quotes for the Guineas and Derby before they fall from grace as a 1/3 favourite in a Group race and then blend into obscurity.
Finishing 5th in a poor champion stakes relates to speed. You are trying to distinguish Nathaniel’s speed (which is very very very high in relation to nearly all other race horses) against what we may define as exceptional or elite (I.e the clearly defined best within a division). So if we are discussing Nathaniel in relation to the fastest horses we’ve seen in the last ten years ; he doesn’t fair well. But we aren’t discussing this. We are discussing the speed of an unrelated Chester Vase winner going hurdling to a Group one winning horse. Finishing 5th in a Champion stakes is a million million miles above anything Ted Spread has ever achieved. This is a thread about Triumph Hurdle horses. Nathaniel would absolutely molest this field if we compare speed ability. I understand your point to a degree, but it’s far too exaggerated to have any relevant meaning.
I am not arguing that Grumeti should be a serious contender on the basis that he beat Ted Spread. In reverse, i am merely stating that arguing against Grumeti because he destroyed Ted Spread is illogical. You and i both no Ted Spread isn’t going to be a high class 2 Mile Hurdler. Im not however going to make negative assumptions on another horse’s ability because he anniliated Ted Spread. The form isn’t currently worth a great deal ; that doesn’t mean there wasn’t substance to the performance.
Whatever opinion one may have on Ted Spread should hardly relate to the opinion one has on Grumeti considering the ease of his victory.
Whether Zarkava’s generalisations have that much merit here (He has taken the idea too far, a horse like Nathaniel has a good deal of speed) doesn’t really matter. It’s pretty obvious that Ted Spread isn’t a particularly fast horse.
Though using Ted Spread as justification for opposing Grumeti seems rather thin as an argument, considering he slaughtered him.
I’d be amazed if Grumeti wasn’t placed atleast in the Truimph to be honest. His stable nearly always have a high class Juvenile and he seems to be the #1 candidate in his yard. I’d expect him to win at the Trials personally and go there at a relatively short price. King’s other potential protagonists seem unlikely to contend, as both Balder Success and Vendor seem to be viewed as longer term prospects, and niether of them really match the criteria of a normal Triump winner or King Triumph contender.
I agree, this is a hard race to feel certain about anything winning. I certainly wouldn’t take a short price on anything, but I think that Alan King’s horse, Secret Edge might just have a squeak from 1lb out of the handicap (may well be in handicap proper if a couple at the top don’t run)
He won well at Wetherby in October, and very easily at Fontwell on 6 Dec, albeit in an egg and spoon race.
He was beaten (3rd) in a good race at Chepstow on 27 Dec, but that was his first run on heavy ground and he tired at the finish. The ground at Kempton is shown as good to soft which would be ideal.
He may well have a lot more in hand as a 4 year old, and I think Alan King thinks this is a good horse, he is best priced 16-1 for the Fred Winter at the festival.
Victor Chandler and Paddy Power both have him at 16-1, others are 14’s 12’s and 11-1. He is still anti post today, so it is a chance taking him as he could be withdrawn. Tomorrow they should go non runner money back, but whether he will still be 16-1 I’m not so sure.
I think he is a stonking e/w chance.Interesting that he is such a short price. He already has had limitations in his ability shown, and it’s been hinted several times by connections and his races that he will turn out to be a stayer rather than a 2 Miler. I’d be suprised if he were good enough.
Captain Conan won it on ability not a fitness edge. There is only so much you can do with them at home and would say he would probably come on for that. I would say he was slightly fortunate with the 2nd running around. Looks like a proper chaser in the making and you would have to think anything he does this season is a bonus. Not the sort of horse who screams out Supreme but I won’t be writing him off. That was a very pleasing run fto for the trainer this season.
Actually backed Colour Squadron today & was pretty gutted he couldn’t stay straight. He’s a pretty good yardstick for the Supreme at the moment and ties up quite a lot of form.Am i the only one who thinks Montbazon is a great EW price for this?
He has shown a very high level of ability/form already and the surely the Supreme conditions would seem ideal? 2 Miles on good ground is where this horse should excel. His 2nd to Colour Squadron is excellent from (with the winner looking unlucky in the Tolworth today) and i’d suggest that conditions at Newbury perhaps favoured the winner. They murdered Ericht.
Be interested to see which of King’s 3 recent winners head for this race. Grumeti was very impressive in beating Ted Spread by a wide margin, Vendor would have beaten a good yardstick further if not for a bad mistake at the last, whilst Balder success won nicely today (admittedly a weak race). King invariably has a Juvenile that is near the top of the tree (Mughas, Penzance, Katchit, Blazing Bailey, Franchoek, Mille Chief) so will be interesting to see which one of these is his likely candidate.
The form of this race isn’t worth my either in my opinion. Walkon probably needs further and his jumpimg absolutely killed any chance he had in the home straight. Cue Card didn’t jump particularly well either, and at Cheltenham i wouldn’t touch him. They’ll go alot faster, and i don’t think his jumping can handle that. Even if it did, i don’t think he’s good enough anyway.
I was relatively impressed with Menorah. I feel like he can jump at pace very well, but seems lazy sometimes. I mean you wouldn’t be totally confident in his jumping yet, but i believe it’s better than Cue Card’s.
Sprinter Sacre was excpetional there. The engine is ridiculous and he’s wonderfuly athletic. One of the best cruising speeds i’ve ever seen.
I’d still be slightly wary of Cheltenham with him, and do think Peddler’s Cross will get alot closer at Cheltenham, but it’s difficult not to get excited.
J17,
Khyber Kim improved throughout that season. Winning Greatwood and International prior to his excellent second in the Champion Hurdle. And impressive 5 length winner (admittedly from a comparitively poor field) on his next start at Aintree.
Had 2 1/4 lengths to spare over Celestial Halo in the International, who was giving KK 4 lbs. But CH had won the Elite impressively, in a fast time on his previous start and only been touched off by Punjabi in the Champion itself the previous year. Punjabi finishing fourth in the International, one place in front of Medermit; one of the best novice chasers of last term.
Khyber Kim was old for a hurdler at 8, and it was no surprise that after injury he could not recapture that form. It could not have been easy getting Khyber Kim to show anything. Henderson won one novice in cracking style before dissapointing and disappearing from the radar. Twister deserves a great deal of credit for getting a whole season out of him.He had a very good season no doubt, and we must give tremendous credit to Twiston-Davies for training him in such a successful season.
It’s difficult to truely assess him i guess due to the relative lakc of high class performances outside of one year. Measuring any race through Khyber Kim seems to have its perils.
I think what the rest of competition had won that year is rather redundant, if you already have the notion that the division was weak that year. It doesn’t really matter what races the other 4 behind had won, because the division itself was pretty weak IMO. Celestial Halo is a very good horse, but i’d struggle to create an argument/thesis to suggest he should be winning champion hurdles or being closely placed. He was beaten by Mille Chief last year (admittedly perhaps unlucky).
Zaynar had come up through the ranks, winning the Triumph the previous year. Part of a run of 5 straight wins before a defeat at 1/14 immediately prior to the Champion. Had/has a hell of a lot of ability, trouble is he’s also got a lot of temperament. Something that got in the way of his subsequent career. Not until a change of tactics on his latest novice chase has Zaynar looked the same horse.
The Triump Zaynar won didn’t really work out. Obviously Walkon never really got the opportunity to truely show his Hurdling ability due to injury and is now chasing, but no 4 year old from that year has progressed into a Top 2 Mile candidate if recall.
He’s a talented horse, and i agree that he has a temparament, but his win/run ratio since that shock defeat has been awful and he has actually never beaten anything of note outside of Novice Division. The hype all came from beating Karabak at Ascot, which hasn’t really worked out. He was eventually tried in the World Hurdle last year ; which sums up where his career has ended. Certainly we aren’t going to be able to build a credible argument for a strong Champion Hurdle through Zaynar
As said, Celestial Halo was top class, hence his close second in the previous year’s Champion. Binny beating him by 12 lengths is hardly poor Champion form. As for Starluck, he was beaten just a nose further. Came out on his next start to be just 1.25 lengths behind Peddlers Cross in the Fighting Fifth. Before a third to Binny in his only subsequent hurdle start at Kempton. Beaten only half as far as Cheltenham.
I think Celestial Halo is a very good horse as said above. Though of course i also hold the view that the previous year (well two years, Katchit’s year was dire) was weak too.
I would have thought what Khyber Kim did prior to and after finishing second to Binny, proved the Champion form very good. Though not as good as Hurricane Fly.
Im not sure the form will ever be considered very good. Those who raced in the Champion that year have susbequently gone on to do ver very little. Undoubtedly some of those horses were very talented, but for whatever reason very little in terms of form has been re-produced.
Either way, it was good to be able to reply to ideas conveyed in a concise and thoughtful manner, rather than being trolled by Nicky Henderson!
So in one thread you decide to quote AP endlessly to support a stance on how good you think he is, yet we now choose to ignore AP and his after-race comments here? He wasn’t exactly positive.
Binocular is a good horse. A very good horse. Yet we’ve been waiting for a supposed repeat performance of his Champion win (Which it’s visual impression gives a false impression of his ability).Aren’t you doing exactly the same to support the opposite view?
True, AP wasn’t pleased with Binocular’s performance today, but when he ran much better to win the CH, you claim it an optical illusion.
Fwiw, I believe Binny ran well below his best, as was obvious from 2 out, but (partly thanks to AP’s brilliance) was still good enough to beat these. No doubt, PN will persevere with Rock On Ruby as a CH horse, but I can’t see his namesake wanting to ride him.I was just using it to highlight his own contradiction. I already have my own opinion formed, and am not going to base it on one comment here or there.
I claim his win to be a false representation of his ability. Look at those behind him? Khyber Kim had been bitterly disappointing with Henderson, and bitterly disappointing since Aintree that year. Celestial Halo is an admirable horse who probably hasn’t got the recognition he perphaps deserves, but again, isn’t a vintage 2 Miler Hurdler. Zaynar has since gone on to do absolutely nothing over Hurdlers, whilst the 5th was Starluck. The following year none of these horses exactly set the 2 Mile scene on fire. Unless they all suddenly lost form the next year, it’s difficult to categorize this as a particularly good renewal.
I assume Rock on Ruby will also head down the 2 Mile path, and if i had to back either at bigger prices it would be Rock on Ruby. Not that i think he’s going to win a Champion Hurdle, but a place is certainly plausible.
Don’t talk shyte mate he’s beaten Overturn twice as far as he did last year on a track that doesn’t really suit him. Rock on Ruby was the best horse in the race but Binocular never ran up to his level. What utter tripe!!! He may not win another Champion but he’s run as well if not better in that race as any race he ever has pre Cheltenham. If Binocular never ran up to form why on earth would you even consider backing Rockon Ruby to win the Champion Hurdle? makes no sense to me
So in one thread you decide to quote AP endlessly to support a stance on how good you think he is, yet we now choose to ignore AP and his after-race comments here? He wasn’t exactly positive.
Rock on Ruby would have won if he jumped better in my opinion. I don’t think Overturn can be used a true guage here, he went out very quickly and i don’t think he’s run up to form.
I said if both were of similar price i’d rather back Rock on Ruby. Reading comprehension.
Binocular is a good horse. A very good horse. Yet we’ve been waiting for a supposed repeat performance of his Champion win (Which it’s visual impression gives a false impression of his ability).
Great race.
Great attitude too from Binocular. He was being told to keep up to his work by McCoy from quite a way out, but he has stuck to the jockey’s urges really well.
Excellent performance from Rock on Ruby, lost nothing in defeat.
Very good performance in the saddle too, i still think there is a lot of room for improvement in Binocular, which is something McCoy has just re-affirmed on tv.
Rock on Ruby emerges as the best horse from the race. If he had jumped better, i think he would have won. Still an improving horse, i’d fancy him at the prices more than Binocular.
Binocular yet again fails to show his "supposed" level. He ran well, but he isn’t going to be winning a Champion Hurdle again in a hurry.
What do you mean it’s garbage Hurricane Fly is the highest level not some Micky Mouse gee gee he beat in the Neptune ffs.
I was referring to your remark that Peddler’s Cross has been beaten at the highest level easily. Hurricane Fly is the best 2 Mile Hurdler i’ve ever seen (In large because im too young) ; i am not downplaying him. Rather, Peddler’s Cross gave him a good race and has proven to be the 2nd Best 2 mile Hurdler around. Quite contrary to your idea that he has failed to deliver at the highest level.
So winning a neptune is nothing, yet Sprinter Sacre tanking for most of the race only to finish 3rd is something different? You seem to cherry pick ideas without understand they contradict something else you’ve said.
Ruby rode Hurricane Fly to beat what was in front of him and was travelling so much better than the rest he took a huge pull to have Hurricane Fly in the ideal position to beat what was in front of him.
All this paragraph says is "Hurricane fly was ridden to win the race" ; an idea that is common within most horses races.
You say he would have won in a normal year. WTF is a normal year? You mean if nothing better than him turned up. What a silly statement to make.
A normal year is in this context defined as average. The average ability for Champion Hurdlers. It isn’t difficult to grasp this idea, it’s function and it’s implication.
The 3 previous winners, Punjabi, Katchit and Binocular have all at some point been described as average winners. In a normal year, when no horse currently exists within the division who is rated/ranked above the norm rating/ability for winning a champion hurdle, they are likely winners. Peddler’s Cross is a better horse at 2 Miles than all 3. He’d certainly wipe the floor with Katchit/Punjabi whilst all known form has Peddler’s Cross above Binocular. The only people who rank Binocular highly are those who still believe his Champion was special ; it wasn’t, the form does not stack up.
What would have been normal is if the same Binocular that won the previous Champion Hurdle had been there and ridden in the same way he was then?
Do you even understand the word Normal? I don’t think you do. Whether Binocular was there or no has no real determine on whether you could assign Hurricane Fly an above average winner etc and the same with Peddlers (I.e how he stacks up with previous winners on form/rating).
Bincoular is one of the most overated horses ive witnessed in my few years of watching Horse racing. He’s never been a top class horse. He won a weak champion and outside of this, has produced no display of great ability in any race over the last 2 years. Being beaten By Celestial Halo/Punjabi the year before isn’t exactly tremendous form either.
AP would have kicked for home at the top of the hill Ruby wouldn’t have been taking a pull and would have to have gone straight after him at full gallop and Peddlar’s Cross would have been left standing thats’ what would have happened in a normal year.
Binocular would have been behind both with AP appearing to be in a false guise of confidence. Peddler’s Cross has beaten Bincoular, has the better form and there is no evidence outside of the "He looked great winning a weak champion" to suggest Binocular is a better horse. You can assume all you want, no evidence backs you up.
You and many others are assuming Hurricane Fly was stretched to the full when he clearly was not so Peddlar’s get’s somewhat flattered because he was 2nd. Do not forget that Oscar Whisky is a2m4f horse and he was not top of the pecking list at Seven Barrows and for him the Champion Hurdle is far from his ideal race.
Flattered? He was the only horse to give Hurricane Fly a race. No other horse in the race could live with either going round the bend. We are not comparing Peddler’s Cross to Hurricane Fly, we are comparing Peddler’s Cross to the rest of the competition and the norm. Against this collection he represents himself very well.
No one is saying PC not a good horse but it is all based round 1 race which was decimated when Binocular lost form and failed to turn up.
Based around one race? A winner of a Neptune, Fighting Fifth and 2nd in a Champion is not 1 race. Consistently your ideas and reality seem very distant from each other. Binocular lost form in the Fighting Fifth? Just like every other race in the last 2 years? Binocular produced a visually impressive performance against weak competition once, and has had his limitations shown against in nwarly other race.
Apart from being a first class(not top of the tree class)what’s Peddlars Cross done?
See above.
He was flat to the boards to beat Starluck 1 1/2 lengths with Binocular on an off day 6 lengths behind. The real Binocular turns up and beats Starluck without coming off the bridle by 6 lengths.
And who is the real Binocular? Do we base him off one race or the rest of his career. Your cherry picking data to support your argument, and unfortunately anyone with common sense can take this stance apart very quickly. It’s also just as easy for me to simply say Peddler’s Cross wasn’t at his best at Newcastle and the real Peddler’s was at the Champion? See, we can all make assumptions lacking any fact in an attempt to validate our model.
Hardly a boost to Peddlar’s Cross and a clear indication Binocular at his best was the better horse and by some way.
Which you’ve yet to show evidence for.
He won the Neptute from what? Reve De Sivola? How far off top class hurdling form is beating a 3 miles chaser who rarely ever wins a race?
Binocular was beaten by Captain Cee Bee in a supreme. He has achieved what? Binocular beat Kyber Kim in a Champion? What has he since done?
You keep bringing a spoon to a gun fight.
He was well beaten at Aintree which is understandable but as far is the rest of his wins go they were against nothing more than ordinary every day horses.
Are we discussing Binocular or Peddler’s Cross, because i fail to see a difference in competition.
People have got to take their rose coloured glasses off. Peddlar’s Cross will probably be no better over fences than he was over hurdles and is very beatable in the Arkle.
You base this on what? You have no data to base this asusmption on. It’s simply a hunch. This fine, but stop implying it’s fact.
We know or at least I know he has limited speed in a finish. That was evident in the Champion Hurdle or he would heve been a lot closer.
Alot closer? He’s the only horse to give an exceptional winner a race. We know Sprinter Sacre doesn’t have the speed to finish based on last year’s Supreme. Do you see what i did there? You use on argument to support your favoured horse, and the same argument against another horse.
While not lacking pace entirely (Far from it) to be in a position to beat a horses like Sprinter Sacre, Alferof etc, he will have to travel and jump as well or perhaps even better than they do.
Al Ferof is a staying type who was off the bridle before the other 3 in the Supreme and stayed on. On all known appearances you’d have to be crazy to suggest he has shown a higher cruising speed than Peddler’s Cross. Again, Peddler’s Cross had everything else beat in the Champion rounding the turn bar an exceptional horse. If this is lacking pace, then i suggest you stop following horse racing, because frankly you don’t know what you are talking about.
Even if he did finish second in the Champion Hurdle that does not mean he is going to be the fastest horse in a finish over fences. So unless he’s well clear at the last the chances are he could easily get done for toe.
Of course, we have no idea how the rest of the 2 Mile Novice chase division will unfold. Nothing is guaranteed.
All it means is he can and should be able to handle the Arkle pace with ease, but out jump or travel better than Sprinter Sacre? I have sever doubts about that considering this years Supreme was run at a faster pace than the Champion Hurdle was..
Peddler’s Cross has far less known defiencies or worries. Sprinter Sacre has to prove he gets up that hill. I expect him to beat Peddler’s at Kempton, but until he gets up that hill, i will remain skeptical.
Also, could you please spell Peddler’s Cross name correct. It’s been numerous posts and you’ve failed to correct yourself. If you intend on debating a topic, atleast spell the topic name correctly.
