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Lanzarote 2012

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  • #20752
    GDC
    Member
    • Total Posts 942

    This is one of the big races this week-end and what a race it is for punters to try and work out! As the betting shows it is extremely competitive with the fav being 8s and the next 16 runners only being up to 14s!!

    Trends wise we are looking for a horse 5-7yo preferably winning LTO. Surprisingly conditional jockeys have a good record in this event and we do not want a front runner!

    At this early stage 2 that catch the eye are:

    DECOY[/color:31aznirp] ran a cracker in his last 2 races and looks made for this but is only 8s in a wide open field.

    Despite carrying 11:11 FEATHERBED LANE [/color:31aznirp]from the Hobbs yard must go well but again is plenty short enough.

    An outsider that I may consider is KUILSRIVER[/color:31aznirp] from the Nick Gifford yard that generally have a good run during Jan/Feb and at 33s he could be an EW bet cometh the day.

    Extremely tricky race to sort IMO so comments and selections more than welcome please :D

    #386400
    Venture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 14083

    GDC, Nothing really stands out to me at the moment. If pushed, I may be interested in American Trilogy, who I think has a lot more ability than he tends to show! Felt he was being lined up for a nice prize somewhere last season, but it didn’t really happen for him, running some absolute howlers!

    His last run, albeit over fences was more encouraging, and he didn’t look quite as moody as last year. Don’t know how competitive he’s gonna be back over hurdles, or if this is nothing more than a speculative entry for him. One of his runs at Kempton last year also suggested he may be better going left handed, so that would also be a worry, as well as his quirkiness.

    However, as I said, I think he’s still got a hint of ability, and wouldn’t be the first time they’ve landed a nice pot with him, so if he’s lining up, the 25’s available, might tempt me!

    #386465
    MarkTT
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2802

    Get one of the Linehans on Nadiya De La Vega and go for it, JP.

    Pretty poor race to be honest.

    #386561
    BigG
    Participant
    • Total Posts 9284

    I agree, this is a hard race to feel certain about anything winning. I certainly wouldn’t take a short price on anything, but I think that Alan King’s horse, Secret Edge might just have a squeak from 1lb out of the handicap (may well be in handicap proper if a couple at the top don’t run)

    He won well at Wetherby in October, and very easily at Fontwell on 6 Dec, albeit in an egg and spoon race.

    He was beaten (3rd) in a good race at Chepstow on 27 Dec, but that was his first run on heavy ground and he tired at the finish. The ground at Kempton is shown as good to soft which would be ideal.

    He may well have a lot more in hand as a 4 year old, and I think Alan King thinks this is a good horse, he is best priced 16-1 for the Fred Winter at the festival.

    Victor Chandler and Paddy Power both have him at 16-1, others are 14’s 12’s and 11-1. He is still anti post today, so it is a chance taking him as he could be withdrawn. Tomorrow they should go non runner money back, but whether he will still be 16-1 I’m not so sure.
    I think he is a stonking e/w chance.

    #386606
    J17star
    Member
    • Total Posts 325

    I agree, this is a hard race to feel certain about anything winning. I certainly wouldn’t take a short price on anything, but I think that Alan King’s horse, Secret Edge might just have a squeak from 1lb out of the handicap (may well be in handicap proper if a couple at the top don’t run)

    He won well at Wetherby in October, and very easily at Fontwell on 6 Dec, albeit in an egg and spoon race.

    He was beaten (3rd) in a good race at Chepstow on 27 Dec, but that was his first run on heavy ground and he tired at the finish. The ground at Kempton is shown as good to soft which would be ideal.

    He may well have a lot more in hand as a 4 year old, and I think Alan King thinks this is a good horse, he is best priced 16-1 for the Fred Winter at the festival.

    Victor Chandler and Paddy Power both have him at 16-1, others are 14’s 12’s and 11-1. He is still anti post today, so it is a chance taking him as he could be withdrawn. Tomorrow they should go non runner money back, but whether he will still be 16-1 I’m not so sure.
    I think he is a stonking e/w chance.

    Interesting that he is such a short price. He already has had limitations in his ability shown, and it’s been hinted several times by connections and his races that he will turn out to be a stayer rather than a 2 Miler. I’d be suprised if he were good enough.

    #386706
    BigG
    Participant
    • Total Posts 9284

    J17star….you may well be right, although I thought off a feather weight that he would be worth a e/w. Re the thoughts that he may be more of a stayer, the Lanzarote is 2m 5f, that’s the furthest he will have taken on. Previous runs over 2m, 2m 1f, and once 2m 3F. Perhaps the extra couple of furlongs will suit.

    As it happens, I’ve been checking all morning for the prices to come out, i didn’t want to take the anti post, and at 11am bet365 are the first to price up…..looks like secret edge is missing, so it’s all academic now…oh well, back to the drawing board.

    #386732
    Eclipse First
    Member
    • Total Posts 1569

    Lightning Strike is still well treated if he has finally recaptured his form. Last week’s win over 6f further might well have been further than ideal and his penalty ensures he gets into the race. Stable in decent form and presumably he has shown no ill effects from his Hereford win.

    12/1 Paddy Power may not last.

    #386746
    J17star
    Member
    • Total Posts 325

    J17star….you may well be right, although I thought off a feather weight that he would be worth a e/w. Re the thoughts that he may be more of a stayer, the Lanzarote is 2m 5f, that’s the furthest he will have taken on. Previous runs over 2m, 2m 1f, and once 2m 3F. Perhaps the extra couple of furlongs will suit.

    As it happens, I’ve been checking all morning for the prices to come out, i didn’t want to take the anti post, and at 11am bet365 are the first to price up…..looks like secret edge is missing, so it’s all academic now…oh well, back to the drawing board.

    Ah, for some reason i thought the Lanzarote was 2 Miles. Thanks for the recorrection, not sure why i thought this.

    The distance should suit, however i would still have preservations about him. His cruising speed and class might not be good enough for this, as admirable and tough as he is. But as he isn’t entered it no longer matters!

    #386748
    Eclipse First
    Member
    • Total Posts 1569

    I thought it was 2 miles as well! It was upped in distance in 2007, the last time I backed the winner it was over 2 miles and had a grade 3 status.

    #386774
    BigG
    Participant
    • Total Posts 9284

    Well with my first choice not making it to the starting tapes, I’ve gone through them again trying to find something with a bit of value.

    To be honest, there isn’t anything that stands out like a sore thumb, and therefore I think it makes sense looking for something that could make the frame at a reasonable price.

    American Trilogy’s last win was nearly a year ago, Feb 2011, over course and distance (or 1/2 a furlong short of). He then came out 2 weeks later at Kempton and jumped to the left far too often for his own good, and duly got well humped in a 3 horse race (albeit by Captain Chris). He ran then like a drain at the festival and was pulled up. He finished last season 2nd at Fontwell after having "declined to overtake flat" as it is recorded. Not sounding too good yet is it.

    He came back out 10 Dec 2011 and finished 5th (made headway 4 out, no impression after next)Perhaps needed the race….can I make any more excuses for this horse?.

    The thing is, I can remember this horse absolutely trouncing a 27 horse field by 11 lengths in the Vincent Obrien County Hurdle at the festival in 2009. I know a huge amount of trust is needed to hope he still retains some of that level of ability, but at 8yrs I’m not sure he is ready for the knackers yard just yet.

    Paul Nichols has indicated, in his Betfair column, that he has struggled on right handed courses in the past, mentioning his run against Captain Chris last year, and that it might be that he would do better going left handed.

    Well I’m not going to doubt PN, clearly he would be better going left handed, but he has brought him to the course regardless, and he has won here (only C&D winner in the race).

    Maybe I’m grasping at straws here, but at 33-1 with PP, I’m not going to need much of a stake to make it worth while, so not a lot to lose. A small interest is all I would risk in this race anyway.

    Best of betting luck

    #386788
    Grimes
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1890

    Rajdhani Express’s collateral form with Houblon Des Obeaux in France, as 3-year old hurdlers, makes interesting reading, when you consider the latter’s form in this country. Then, there is Sam Waley-Cohen’s 5 lbs allowance and the extra distance.

    #386789
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 28423

    I’m on Rajdhani Express too Grimes. If Barry was on him he’d be a lot shorter. Crying out for the step up in trip. The slowly run 2 miles last time did not suit. Still has potential to improve and 22/1 is far too big in my opinion.

    Also on Lightning Strike 12/1 and Well Regarded 10/1. Former won easily last time and still well handicapped if back to his best. Trainer in great form, which is why I’ve saved on Drumshambo at 39/1 and Swincombe Flame (another from an in form trainer).

    As is Well Regarded from my local trainer Emma Lavelle. Expect a return to this sort of distance to bring further improvement; judging by the Cheltenham run (behind Fingal Bay) on good ground.

    Value Is Everything
    #386792
    Hurdygurdyman
    Member
    • Total Posts 1555

    East Lake will just about win this. 14/1 ew

    #386793
    Hurdygurdyman
    Member
    • Total Posts 1555

    East Lake will just about win this. 14/1 ew

    #386859
    Blunkett
    Participant
    • Total Posts 421

    I’m on Ohio Gold. Ran well in the best Supreme for years and has received a few confidence boosts in novice hurdles recently.

    I’ll also have a nibble on El Dancer too. I was at Wetherby when the thing jumpred like a clown over 2 miles and was outpaced. Upped in trip and back down over hurdles hopefully some of its grade 1 winning form will be rediscovered.

    Good luck.

    #386927
    JJMSports
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2033

    Great win for the jockey, trainer and connections, feel sorry for Will Kennedy, who I thought gave it a great ride. Should be extremely well handicapped for future races, hopefully come Cheltenham, ideally for something like the Coral Cup.

    #386964
    Hurdygurdyman
    Member
    • Total Posts 1555

    Yet another no pay day for a perfectly good jockey. Something has to be done about this crap these guys risk life and limb to entertain and deserve better. Shame on you BHA

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