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Said similar before about Montbazon. He is closely matched with Colour Squadron and is probably the best of the brits from what we have seen. Annoyingly i switched form him and colour to telami and vulcanite. Smashed in the teeth witht hat one. i give up on the race. Just hope i get away with a small return. Covered enough horses.
Currently i am on Montbazon, Colour Squadron and Cash and Go. Cash and Go looks a lost cause. I do think Montbazon/Colour Squadron are the best British horses.
Would have been interested to see if Colour Squadron would have won if he had stayed up. I feel as if his falls gives a false perception to the eye, as Montbazon was caught flat footed at the 3rd last and so Thornton had to engage him quite early. I don’t think there is anything between them.
Perhaps niether proves good enough, but at the prices they are knocking EW bets.
Was convinced Darlan wasn’t good enough, but he did travel very before falling. I don’t know, im still not convinced and wouldn’t back him.
I think they consider Balder Success a very very good prospect, but all the vibes suggest that they aren’t that keen on going to Cheltenham. I’d be relatively suprised if they ran him in either race he’s entered given the stable has two viable candidates for both already.
He’s basically hacked up in 3 slowly run races. The 1st was a weak race at Plumpton, the 2nd just a gallop practice and the 3rd he’s just had way too much speed for some solid horses who simply need further.
Of the Henderson’s horses i’ve seen i can’t say im particularly excited by either. Both had to work pretty hard to win and would have to improve considerably. The Nicholls pair im not that excited about either, given i think Pearl Swan won’t be able to lay up and Dildar will have to improve alot. Can’t have Ranjan either as i don’t think he’s good enough.
Can’t have Baby Mix or any of the Irish (Minsk hasn’t run yet so i’ll wait for that)
So it leaves us with Grumeti and Sadler’s Risk. I assume Sadler’s Risk goes for the adonis, where he might meet Dildar and any other lurking Henderson horse that we have yet to see. Given Grumeti jumps very well, travels well and has the form, i think he’s a great bet. His price will only shorten IMO. I know Zarks trashed Ted Spread, but considering how far he beat him and his susbsequent win, it makes Grumeti look really solid.
Not sure if its his destination, but Smad Place could be very a interesting EW opportunity. Very good performance giving nearly 2 stone to the winne, pulling clear of the rest very nicely.
Yeah, nice call Zarks.
Definitely an interesting prospect for the RSA. Ordinarily you’d say perhaps he doesn’t have enough speed/class, but then the RS isn’t usually won by the fastest horse or the best traveller. Countless times i’ve seen this. He jumps beuatifully, travels and stays well. Whether he’s good enough to win im not sure, but you’d be fairly confident of a good run.
ZARKAVA
Captain Chris, 1pt e/w @ 20/1, generally.
Hurricane Fly, 2pt @ 9/4, generally.
Sizing Europe, 2pt @ 5/2 generally.
Dynaste, 1pt e/w @ 33/1 generally
Al Ferof, 2pt @ 6/1 with Coral
Bob’s Worth, 2pt @ 5/1 generally.Not sure how people feel about this, but would anybody object to me changing my Bob’s Worth bet from 5/1 (still 5s, possibly even 9/2) to 1pt EW Invictus at 50s (was also 50s at the time I selected Bob’s Worth)?
Why the Invictus support? He’s got some nice form and is a lovely jumper, but i haven’t read anything about the RSA being his target and following his disappointing performance in the Dipper, Ascot on Saturday is a big ask considering opposition.
King’s supposed solid batch of Novice Chasers have all been a little disappointiong.
Otherwise i agree with your other selections. I forgot to get on Dynaste at 25’s EW until after his latest run. Have 10’s EW, but lazyness once again ruins me
As for quality of the race, I find it absurdly arrogant that you guys assume your mile/middle distance/and staying races are all better quality than Aussie racing, but you also think your sprint racing is comparable too! If you merged the lightning field with the kings stand and could somehow eliminate travel issues I’m confident our last placegetter would beat home yours by many many lengths.
You know what i find arrogant? Coming onto a British based horse racing forum with the sole intent on spreading the message of how great Australian horse racing is and we overrate European horse racing.
The pot calling the kettle black, or the white trash man telling someone how to pronunciate.
Austrialian horse racing overall is stronger in the Sprint department than European racing. We’re still largely competitive, but weaker. On the reverse, it is absolutely true that European horse racing is much stronger at a mile and upwards. No certifiable evidence in horse ratings suggests otherwise. It’s patently false to suggest otherwise.
Let me put it to you another way….over a shorter distance BC would pick Frankel up and carry him. I’m sure you think very highly of Frankel and the thought of him getting beat at any distance seems hard to imagine, but let me tell you Frankel is not racing Black Caviar over 1000-1200. If he does, he’s getting crushed, it’s that simple. And like someone else said there’s a lot of money to be made by Frankel staying unbeaten.
Frankel has never raced over shorter than 7F. He isn’t a sprinter. He probably wouldn’t beat BC over a spint distance, but then i don’t expect him to, because he isn’t a sprinter.
BC as a sprinter is not just a fine animal she is the best sprinter you have ever seen. If you guys thought Starspangledbanner was good …..holy crap ……. he was in the top bunch of sprinters here but not a stand out or anything. BC is an absolute stand out! She’d beat him by 5 lengths on the bridle give her a kick and it’s out to 8! A fine animal you say? Ha ha she’s certainly that alright!!!
We all agree
David Hayes (used to train in hong kong) was asked on tv on the weekend to compare BC and Frankel. He said he’s watched all of Frankels runs and Frankel does not destroy fields the way BC does. And re questioning who they are beating, he said he hasn’t heard of most of the horses Frankel is beating either!
The last sentence sums up how worthless his opinion is. If he doesn’t know the horses Frankel is beating, then clearly he isn’t very educated on Frankel as a topic. Im not going to pretend i know BC’s form, so i don’t commend. What some guy who used to train Hong Kong said means nothing. What does mean something is the esteem Sir Henry Cecil holds the colt in and what many very important people within our racing industry say ; he’s up their all time for European race horses.
However having said that I can tell you if So You Think and BC raced here over 10f I’d be on the colt no doubt. I don’t share the confidence about her running a middle distance right out. I think she could win a race over 2000 but not beat the best over 2000 if you know what I mean.
So You Think isn’t as good as Frankel. He’s a very very good horse, but considering the hype we heard when he came over, i must say i was disappointed.
I think Frankel is a very good horse don’t get me wrong. But is he the best middle distance galloper of all time? Plenty of people are still questioning if he can stay that distance so I think that answers that question. BC though, there is minimal doubt that she is one of the greatest sprinters we’ve ever seen. I guess make of all that what you will but there is an opinion from the other side of the world…..for what it’s worth!
Frankel isn’t a middle distance horse. He’s a Miler. In regards to European milers, he is ranked as one of the best ever. On ratings he’s very close to the best horse ever.
Will Frankel stay further? We don’t know, but i expect 10Furlongs to be fine. I don’t expect BC and Frankel to meet, because they have very different agendas. BC needs to show her talents outside of Australia (rightly or wrongly, this is generally required before she can truely cement a place) whilst Frankel will be stepped up in Trip. I’d be very suprised if they met
Interesting novice hurdle tomorrow at newbury. All the Aces, Colour Squadron, Montbazon and Vulcanite all go.
Personally, i think it’s a rematch between Colour Squadrom and Montbazon. All the aces is held on form and i don’t think Vulcanite is good enough. I expect the winner to shorten and outside of Henderson’s other lot and Cinders and Ashes, to be the main British protoganist for the Supreme.
You attitude just smacks of a lack of respect to one and all.
"has not got the wealth of experience of someone like yourself to back up their opinion and is clearly not worthy of even mucking out your stable "
Contradict yourself much?
I am a certified douchebag and have no issues with this, atleast i don’t have delusions of granduer like some. I mean how old and insecure can one be given the forementioned quote? And people wonder why there is a lack of youth participation in following the sport.
CS, I wouldnt bother getting into a debate with this arrogant little twerp, having recalled an earlier post, i believe said poster is barely out of short trousers, whilst clearly being able to articulate his/her thoughts, has not got the wealth of experience of someone like yourself to back up their opinion and is clearly not worthy of even mucking out your stable
Do i not meet requirements to join the boys club? I assume one’s opinion must be earned first. Balder Dash, i was hoping to drink brandy with the adults and discuss the fine filly on the TV.
I didn’t realise i was the one to re-join the forum, proclaiming my great return after my success endeavors, naturally telling all of my esteemed history and many excellent decisions of yesteryear. OH WAIT …
Let me know when my membership is approved, i’d dearly love to join!
J17Star
I don’t want to get into a spat with you, especially one you’ve started, but surely you’ve heard the word "proper" before, used in this context ?
It’s a discussion on the internet, hardly a spat.
I’ve heard it used before in similar context, doesn’t mean it makes any sense. Again, why is Weld proper relative to Nicholls, Mullins etc? I don’t get it. Under no definition of the word proper can i find any logical meaning in this. If you mean something genuine, real, then what do we classify the other named trainers? You mean the word best or better, which of course is also incorrect, given the majority of the names given are more successful National Hunt Trainers than Weld. Weld isn’t a better trainer than Nicholls, he simply excels in different aspects.
It’s an traditional term in racing terminology, possibly more common in Ireland but in general use amongst racing folk.
ie "He’s a proper horse" meaning, he’s very good, he’s the real deal, etc etc
You’ll find it used regularily in the RP Analysis of Irish Bumpers or Novice races, more often used to describe lightly raced animals than established horses admittedly.
My use of the term meant no slight whatsoever on any other trainer or jockey, I meant both the trainer and jockey concerned are of the quality and ability needed to win a major prize at a meeting like Cheltenham.Ok, but the description of Weld as proper in relation to the others seems ridiclous.
Of course the irony is you say the trainer and jockey are of the quality and ability needed to win a major prize at Cheltenham. So first we are given a list of redundant data, and now the reverse is attempted, despite his relatively poor Cheltenham record, especially relative to the other names given. This isn’t to say Weld isn’t a good trainer, he is, but your reasoning is fundamentally flawed.
It may come accross that i am a pedantic douchebag (which to be fair, is true), but it’s just too easy to pick holes and contradictions within your arguments
Having just seen the way Galileo’s Choice won on totally unsuitable going, he’s starting to look like a banker for The Supreme, especially if Simonsig shows at Kelso that a longer trip will play to his strengths and is headed for The Neptune
He is an interesting potential participant and i’d say he would definitely have a chance. Banker material he is not.
On that very subject I think I’ve found one, check above
I assumme you mean "Content" not "Contend"?If you wish to pontificate over a typo, brilliant. Enjoy.
Re Dermot Weld being a "proper" trainer as opposed to being just a very good jumps stable, Nicholls, Mullins et al.
How many of the trainers you list above can compare with his record.What does proper mean? Either you don’t understand the defnition of it, or you meant to say the word "Better". As all the other trainers listed sit at the top of the National Hunt game ; you know, the discipline we are currently discussing.
European Flat racing:
Irish Oaks (1981, 1996)
Prix de l’Abbaye de Longchamp (1984, 1985)
Irish 2,000 Guineas (1986)
Irish 1,000 Guineas (1982, 1988, 2006, 2010)
Derby Italiano (1992)
St. James’s Palace Stakes (1992)
Bayerisches Zuchtrennen (1993)
Irish St. Leger
(1993, 1994, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004)
Irish Derby (1996, 2004)
Prix Royal-Oak (2001)British Classic Race wins:
Epsom Oaks (1981)
2,000 Guineas (2003)American Classic Race wins:
Belmont Stakes (1990)International:
Hong Kong Mile (1991)
Melbourne Cup (1993, 2002)
Secretariat Stakes (2008)Steeplechase / Hurdling:
Anniversary 4-Y-O Novices’ Hurdle (1986)
Irish Grand National (1988)
Triumph Hurdle (1990)
Irish Champion Hurdle (1994, 1995)
Punchestown Gold Cup (1980)What does this mean? That Weld has the ability to train good flat horses, something that A) He’s had the opportunity to do and something he has wanted to do B) It’s total irrelevant to a Cheltenham Festival thread.
Dermot Weld winning an oaks and Paul Nicholls not means nothing relative to the discussion. Paul Nicholls has a better NH record, yet we don’t define him as a "proper" (what a ludicrious term) trainer?
If you wanted to construct an argument based on a trainer and his history, then Weld in this context, is a negative, not a positive.
Is Zarkava in danger of agreeing with me here?
Galileos Choice RPR 151 TS 137, Proper trainer, proper jockey Runs tomorrow on the wrong ground
Proper Trainer, Proper jockey? Relative to what? This is so illogical it’s hilarious. He’s trained by a good trainer with a poor Cheltenham record. Nearly all the other leading protoganists for this race are trained by good trainers. Nicholls, Mullins, King, Henderon, O’Grady, Harrington, Hobbs etc etc etc are all excellent trainers who have numerous Festival wins. I get it, you like Weld. But the idea that he’s a "proper" (whatever the hell that means) trainer relative to the "others" ; i don’t know, i’d struggle to find a sentence with less actual meaning or contend.
Urgh, Montbazon horribly slow. Didn’t notice that.
Colour Squadron’s run to RPR140 on all 3 starts over hurdles. His topspeed figure is ok, but I’d say he almost certainly needs a step-up in trip.
Simonsig declared to run in the Morebattle Hurdle at Kelso tomorrow.
Horribly slow? He’s a very good traveller who will cruise down the hill. I think it’s likely he might find one too good, but he’s my EW banker. Excellent form all over the place and how he’s a bigger price than Cinders and Ashes i’ll never know.
An EW banker in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. *Sigh*.
Al Ferof
Oscar’s Well
Big Zeb
Moscow Mannon
Solix
Grumeti
De BoitronAll pretty much certain to be placed IMO.
£5EW with Hills returns £25k if they all place.
Al Ferof will likely be placed, although the betting for the Arkle is usually always much easier than the Supreme and locating a banker ew in that race isn’t exactly something to be proud of you. Well done, you spotted the obvious.
Oscar’s Well is hardly a banker. He’s not beating the Fly, and there are several other horses in there who have similar or higher ability. He may be placed, but hardly a banker.
Big Zeb will be placed at a short price in a dire renewal. Good job.
I frankly don’t know enough in regards to the Bumper, and therefore cannot comment.
Solix is a horse i really don’t like that much, and think has an exaulted reputation relative to what it should be. He’s not that good, he doesn’t jump that well and he’ll be running in a competitive race. No thanks.
Grumeti i agree with, but i expect the price come the Triumph will be alot shorter.
De Boitron, perhaps.
I intend to back some of these horses EW, some not. I’d be amazed if all were placed.
Urgh, Montbazon horribly slow. Didn’t notice that.
Colour Squadron’s run to RPR140 on all 3 starts over hurdles. His topspeed figure is ok, but I’d say he almost certainly needs a step-up in trip.
Simonsig declared to run in the Morebattle Hurdle at Kelso tomorrow.
Horribly slow? He’s a very good traveller who will cruise down the hill. I think it’s likely he might find one too good, but he’s my EW banker. Excellent form all over the place and how he’s a bigger price than Cinders and Ashes i’ll never know.
Incidentally, I rate Best Mate as considerably better than Long Run.
I understand he didn’t beat much but the style of his wins marked him out as a much better horse than Long Run. I’m not a great ratings man anyway as you’ve probably gathered.As for Best Mate vs Kauto Star, yes Kauto would have won at his peak but around cheltenham I don’t think it would have been as clear-cut as many seem to think.
Contrary to the popular belief, i believe using the Gold Cup as THE measuring stick for comparing horses is a little false. Kauto Star is a much superior horse, with greater speed and jumping ability. He isn’t a true stayer. I have no doubt that in any race outside of the Gold Cup, if the two were to have met, only result would have been possible assuming Kauto doesn’t fall. The Gold cup provides such a unique test that it is beautiful on one hand, and yet quite false on the other.
For example you say that Midnight Chase got outclassed last year. But for me he jumped poorly up front, and that was possibly because he wasn’t used to being put under pressure and lacked in experience. You’ll probably say now "how can you say he lacks in experience when he’s older than Long Run" but every horse is different and they don’t all develop at the same speed. He may well "lack the class" to win a Gold Cup, but I certainly don’t think he’ll be "absolutely destroyed" by the two principals, as you suggest.
He was beaten along way last time, has many pounds to find on the book and lacks the required crusing speed or acceleration to live with the principles. Of all the possible alternatives given, this is the least viable. We’ve been here before. He was put in his place last year, and the same will happen again. He isn’t good enough. He’s nowhere near good enough. His debut performance wasn’t anything inspiration and his last win was a product of the race falling apart rather than him developing into a legit Gold Cup contender. All the main protoganists bombed, leaving an old lazy and ever slowing Tidal Bay to finish 2nd.
I can’t agree that Quito De La Roque is just a slow plodder. he won at Aintree on good ground last year. I don’t think you can win on spring ground on a flat track like aintree if you’re some plodder who needs five miles.
The form if his Aintree win is worth nothing in relation to constructing an argument for him winning a Gold Cup. He beat Sarando a neck, with Golan Way in 3rd and Wayward Prince in 4th. I feel like i don’t even need to expand on that piece of form ; the implications are not difficult understand. He’s not good enough to win a Gold Cup.
Also i’m not so sure you need to be a speedster to win a Gold Cup. The history of the Gold Cup is littered with winners that weren’t exactly quick. See More Business, Jodami, Cool Ground, Norton’s Coin weren’t exactly speedsters. They were sloggers who could grind it out.
Recent winners include Best Mate, Kicking King, War of Attrition, Kauto Star and Imperial Commander. Horses who all showed speed in their younger days. Denman might be seen as the reverse, but i’ve never seen a horse with the galloping ability Denman had. No horse in this race has that type of ability. You don’t need to be a 2 Mile Champion horse to win a Gold Cup, but it usually helps if you have shown high class form as a younger horse over a shorter distance.
Ok if the ground is quick, then maybe you do need a horse like Kauto or Grand’s Crus who have gears. But if they ground is good to soft, which is often is in the Gold Cup, and theres a couple of horses that are upsides Kauto at the last, would you really fancy him to outslog them up the hill? I wouldn’t. What I don’t think Kauto wants is a battle these days, but its difficult to see him winning the race off the top bend like he has done in the past, which he’ll probably have to do.
Kauto Star and Grand Crus handle good to soft. If it was a bog, the equation changes. On Good to soft ground, a horse who has gears and a little bit of acceleration has a strong advantage.
If there are a couple of horses upsides Kauto at the last? And who are these horses. As discussed before, the majority of the projected field are not good enough to get themselves in such a position.
Quito De La Roque is supposedly too slow in your eyes to get upsides Kauto to even challenge, but we’ll see about that. I take the view that a horse like Quito De La Roque shouldn’t be categorised yet. He hasn’t had the chance to run against horses who are as highly rated as Kauto Star or Long Run. When he does, I expect his rating to go up accordingly.
Well if he is quick enough to beat Sarando then he’s quick enough to cruise with Kauto star i guess. He hasn’t had his chance, but we all have the ability to infer what the likely result is.
As for the stamina doubts you refer to with Grands Crus, you might be right about that but I have the same doubts about backing Long Run, a horse who’s been turned over twice this season while favourite, at 2-1, or backing a 12 year old in Kauto at scarcely better odds.
If i had any doubts about Long Run it’s jumping. The fact that he has been beaten twice this year doesn’t really concern me. He’s only been beaten by one horse, who is exceptional. The Cheltenham test suits Long Run much more than Kauto Star, and unfortunately i expect the roles to be reversed. Nothing else in the field has done anything this year that equates to the form Long Run has shown this year. It’s not like Long Run has bombed out.
As for Sychronised being a plodder, the same doubts were expressed about him before his last run, that he just wasn’t quick enough, but he ran away with that race didn’t he?
Against a bunch of medicore top class chasers within a very different test to the one the Gold Cup is likely to provide.
