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Maybe 90-1 for the Champion is a good price. HF is prone to setbacks so there must be a 20% chance he won’t run. Then TS could step up as a 10-1 shot so true odds should be about 50-1.
However, my feeling is that TS is not performing at home or Cheltenham is not a priority for him because 25-1 in his most likely race is too big.
Voler la Vedette being aimed at this race. With Oscar Whiskey and Mullins’ choice of So Young, Mikael D, Zaidpour, Thousand Stars,it is shaping up as a really good race.
I’ve always thought that Oscare Whiskey looks like a real athlete; BB’s biggest challenge ever.Very true. It’s absolutely ridiculous the amount of knockers considering what he’s achieved.
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‘He’s never gone down in trip to face quicker horses’ – Why should he, he’s a staying hurdler. I haven’t seen Hurricane Fly step up in trip to face him, and nor should he, as he’s a 2 miler
Well, Hurricane fly has steped up to two and a half..so he BB wouldnt have to do anything so dramatic.
I have nothing against BB, but as I have said before, I dont believe that the 3 mile hurdle division attacts the best horses…thats all.
That said if Mullins throws in a few of his bunch into this race, it would look like a decent renewal I suppose.
SHL
From the Nick Mordin website:
POSTED ON FEBRUARY 14, 2012
OSCAR WHISKY CAN BEAT BIG BUCK’S
OSCAR WHISKY (37) is the fastest hurdler in training on my ratings. So it’s no big surprise he was sixteen to one on to win a Jumpers Bumper at Kempton, which he did in good style.
Nicky Henderson’s charge was always moving well in third and picked up strongly in the closing stages to cover the final three furlongs in just 36.1 seconds. That’s quite something for a national hunt horse and two seconds faster than Kasbadali managed off only a slightly faster early pace in the quickest race on the same card.
It was only a Listed class performance on the clock. But Oscar Whisky passed the post flying and full of run. It was an ideal preparation for Cheltenham.
As a punter I still wish Oscar Whisky would run in the Champion Hurdle because he’s clearly improved since last season and I’d bet on him winning the race instead of running third this time around. But I can see the logic of shooting for the World Hurdle. If he stays the distance he will have a terrific chance of beating Big Buck’s.
The one chink in the armour of Big Buck’s is his lack of acceleration. It could be that he can produce a faster finish than he’s had to so far. But I can’t see him putting together a series of twelve second furlongs towards the end of a race as Oscar Whisky did here.
Oscar Whisky is certainly built and bred to stay three miles, and he would have won all five times he’s run two and a half miles plus but for tipping up at the last when looking set to win at Ascot earlier this season. He looks over-priced at 5-1 for the World Hurdle to me. I’d rate him more like a 2-1 shot.
Nick KNOWS
Found it.
OSCAR WHISKY (37) is the fastest hurdler in training on my ratings.
If he were mine I’d be skipping the Spring festivals with Al Ferof and look for some slightly lower class contests with small fields instead.
COLOUR SQUADRON THE ONE TO BEAT IN THE SUPREME NOVICES
Some gems there from Nick.
The guy gets a lot of knockers. A lot just dismiss him as a mad professor but I find him quite interesting as at least he could never be accused of just tipping up short priced favourites (like most gravy-train columnists for example)
I recall though that two years ago he really had a great festival, I wouldnt underestimate his approach.
I think Thousand Stars has every chance of causing an upset in the World Hurdle.
He has high class from over the minimum distance – consistently running respectable races in defeat against Hurricane Fly – and beat the classy Oscars Well in the Morgiana Hurdle last November.
His French Champion Hurdle success (Mourad, third in World Hurdle, behind) in testing conditions demonstrated his ability to stay the World Hurdle trip, and he would have defeated Oscar Whisky at Aintree last season (two miles-four) in another stride.
He is versatile groundwise, his County Hurdle success and fine effort in last seasons Champion Hurdle proved his fondness for Cheltenham, and he goes equally well for Katie Walsh.
Can you imagine Katie and Ruby jumping the last upsides each other?
Thousand Stars is arguably the biggest threat Big Buck’s has ever faced and, in my opinion, the only horse capable of beating him over three miles.
:lol:
The guy gets a lot of knockers. A lot just dismiss him as a mad professor but I find him quite interesting as at least he could never be accused of just tipping up short priced favourites (like most gravy-train columnists for example)
I recall though that two years ago he really had a great festival, I wouldnt underestimate his approach.
Right, but he’s not going to put up 27 winners, is he?
Friend of mine who works for the Head stable and has advised on the breeding of Four Sins and Sarah Lynx e-mailed me yesterday and said that Oscar Whisky’s breeding indicates that he’ll fall short at the top level.
I’ll admit that he’s a concern, but I’m more worried about So Young or even Bos’ fancy Thousand Stars.
Does anybody else find it very strange that of Quevega, Hurricane Fly, Sizing Europe and Big Buck’s, everybody’s putting up alternatives to the shortest priced one of the 4?
He’s not a 4/7 shot. Reputation makes him a 4/7 shot, but he’s not.
No but I distinctly recall him tipping Menorah for the supreme, Sizing Europe for the Arkle, Big Zeb for the Queen Mum, and Imperial Commander for the Gold Cup. all at thhe same meeting. (it’s possible he had other winners as well but those are the ones I remember.)It’s become fashionable to knock Mordin, but I wouldn’t dismiss his methods so easily.
Of course some of his theories are somewhat batty, to put it nicely. I distinctly remember a system he devised for the 2000 guineas last year which ruled Frankel out, due to the fact that he had recorded too high (!) racing post ratings as a two year old.
Yes, you can’t make it up. Systems where you rule out horses’ due to being too good
But that doesn’t mean that he can’t hit the nail on the head occasionally.
I’ll admit that he’s a concern, but I’m more worried about So Young or even Bos’ fancy Thousand Stars.
Does anybody else find it very strange that of Quevega, Hurricane Fly, Sizing Europe and Big Buck’s, everybody’s putting up alternatives to the shortest priced one of the 4?
He’s not a 4/7 shot. Reputation makes him a 4/7 shot, but he’s not.
The panel at Tipperary tonight agrees with me! They think Big Buck’s won’t have it all his way.
Andrew Lynch says VLV will run into a place at best.
Shark Hanlon’s mole in the Mullins stable says Thousand Stars has ‘gone sour’ in recent weeks.
Robbie Power said Ruby thinks BB could win a Champion Hurdle without Hurricane Fly in it.
Not sure if its his destination, but Smad Place could be very a interesting EW opportunity. Very good performance giving nearly 2 stone to the winne, pulling clear of the rest very nicely.
Mikael D well beaten by Mourad, so that’s one challenger less. Mourad was impressive, but he’s running for place money.
Sad to see Mik D, he looked like a world-beater as a nocive hurdler, but has never recovered his form after injury.
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