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Nothing really interests me for dutching today in the UK mainland racing cards. I did check the Goodwood 3.45 but the market is going to be too short opposite the risk involved
. I could have a couple of savers to clear £100 and put the rest on Prince Siegfried instead, but I doubt it:Goodwood 3.45
Prince Siegfried (Betfair f/c 5 – current market 5.7) £25
Debussy (f/c 4.3 – market 3.15) £50 to clear £100
Fallen Idol (f/c 9 -market 5.3) £25 to clear £100In the final analysis this betting game is just opinion after all (my opinion has been cr*p lately
). If you don’t believe me how about the Newmarket 2.55 today according to some expert opinion by virtue of their ratings converted to odds:Newmarket 2.55 (just the odds for those rated within 5 points of best in each case for – Formcast, RPR, Topspeed, one4 racing).
1. 9/1 – 11/1 – ?? – 9/2 (current Betfair 4.3)Coupe De Ville
2.
3.
4.
5. 9/1 – 10/1 – ?? – 5/1 (6.2) Mehdi
6. ?? – 11/1 – ?? – ?? (10)Balty Boys
7.
8.
9.
10.
11. ?? – 11/1 – ?? – ?? (44)Orders From Rome
12. 9/1 – 10/1 – 9/1 – ?? (11) Tell Dad
13.
14. 17/2 – 11/1 – ?? – ?? (8.2) Jubilance
15.
16.Opinion: On form it looks like Coupe De Ville, Mehdi and the shorter odds reflect that whereas Tell Dad could be a reasonable each-way shot if speed is the critical factor.
Bill,
I am not gardening being excused due to a heavy cold – being treated with whisky and lemsips. Looked at your two races and can’t find much wrong with the reasoning. I rated each race simply by the Clive Holt formula:Newbury 2.35
Fine Threads 16 4.5 Betfair f/c – market 6.4 = OK
Elraabeya 13 6.6 Betfair f/c – market 7.8 = OK
The Only Key 9 21 Betfair f/c 21 = market 7.6 = eliminateAyr 5.05
Boss’s Destination 13 Betfair f/c 4.3 – market 6.4 = OK
Bollin Judith 12 Betfair f/c 5.5 – market 4.6 = eliminate
Puy D’Arnac 9 Betfair f/c 6 – market 6.2 = marginalMy mantra for over 30 years now has been that of successful old-time pro Morton Coles, which is; ‘The only thing that really matters is the odds’. So, when you have decided on a selection or selections in a race it is necessary to price them up for comparison with the market – any way that’s what I do
.In the past I found my ‘possibles’ by filtering fields through 8 or more critical factors to give a rating to be converted into form odds, which is interesting but time-consuming. However, lately I have been using the excellent Martin Kilgannon Pattern Form site data to achieve the rating and the price, and that is what I have done today. That being the case some may argue that my tissue and punter’s book may be complete nonsense and they may be right
Here is today’s offering where MY odds are staked to return at least £100.
Ayr 3.55
1. Mon Brav 11/1 £10
3. Espirit De Midas 12/1 £10
5. Klynch 10/1 £10
15. Amenable 10/1 £10
19. Namwahjobo 12/1 £10
23. Another Citizen £15Ayr 4.30 (I also assessed this race but the Ponty Acclaim rating came out a 5/6 and Caledonia Lady came nowhere, which seems a bit odd – so Ponty with 2 savers).
3. Kool Henry 11/4 £40
4. Powerful Wind 4/1 £25
Ponty Acclaim 5/6 £35 being the remainder of my £100 stake.Hello
,PM me with an email address and I will send you a free e-book by the proprietors of Racing System Builder, it is a little dated but an excellent, detailed exposition of the problems facing punters.
St Leger Stakes
As the favourite market will be rather short given the form I thought perhaps a couple of savers on the two apparent dangers to return better than £100 could be a way to have an interest and maybe make a few bob:
Sea Moon £50 remainder
Blue Bunting 4.4 = £30
Census 7 = £20Bill,
I am still here lurking about in the brushes, pruning them mainly at this time of year
. I see you are still referring to Van der Wheil so why not just follow the principles he advised? For example every race today at Donny is of a class that lends itself to the method – you know £class, consistency, Formcast, RPR:Doncaster (my possible is underlined)
1.25 Poetic Dancer, Amis Returns, Besito
1.55 Chachamaidee, Alanza, Dever Dream
2.25 Bogart, Mehdi, Reply
3.00 Set To Music, Meeznah, Sense Of Purpose
3.35 Rawaafed, Hyperlink, Imperial Order
4.10 Dimension,Farlow,Damika
4.40 Chain Lightning, Club Oceanic, JutlandBill,
I see that yet again you have dropped off your perch into the pit of depair in your search for the holy grail, the perfect system. . That, after all the info I have provided the penny still hasn’t dropped. Your problem is that you are seeking winning selections when as a punter you should be looking for winning bets.Take a look at the Sandown card this afternoon, which is quite a decent card and let’s see if we can do something with the Betfair betting forecast in each race. We will dutch any where the SP for the one at the shortest odds is 2/1 or better. Or we will have a saver on the runner at the longer odds where the one at the shortest odds is less than SP of 2/1, alternatively you can do an Exacta or csf at these odds.
2.10 No’s 2,4
2.50 6,5
3.25 8, 7
4.00 4, 6
4.35 6, 9
5.05 5, 1Just to keep Billin’s place wam in his absence I considered the Irish Derby. If form is your angle it seems to me a win bet on Carlton House is poor value opposite the risk particularly when Treasure rates close. My order of merit by form would be No’s 1, 8, 5, 6, 7. So as per the previous post a cautious bet would be the jolly with one or two savers.
Curragh 3.50
Carlton House (11/8) stake residue £60
Treasure Beach (7/2) stake £30 to clear £100
Notable Graduate (16/1)£10 to clear £100Have you noted that he keeps having a dig at me – jealousy no doubt
. Let’s see if we can confound him by finding some winners :Uttoxeter
2.15 Art Broker
2.45 Rangefinder
3.15 Ardesis
3.45 Speedy Directa
5.25 Themanfromraam
5.55 Brompton BrowBill,
I think you are just trying to get me at it and you know with the odds given it would not be considered for betting by myself. The rock-bottom for coupled odds for 3 runners for me is 2/1. However, if pressed and given the cash to bet on this race rather than bet each-way I would have a saver on the 2 at longer odds and put the remainder on the 1 at the shortest odds. Why? because my nature is such that I can’t abide losingWarwick 4.05
Kor Sheed (7/4) £50 win
Eucharist (5/1) £20 win to clear £100
Masaya (7/2) £30 win to clear £100Bill,
I thought you were living up to your word and giving the game up . Anyway the system is not in profit just won a theoretical £47.50 today, but we were still in there pitching with over half the bank still intact.Pontefract 4.10
1. 6* Red Cadeaux (my 2nd choice)
2. 6* Distant Memories – £19 stake (won 5/2 + £47.50)
3. 3*
4. 3*
5. 0*
6. 3* Vulcanite (my 3rd choice)
7. 0*
8. Non-runner(After today I am suspending my postings to this thread in the absence of Billion)
Late down at the start today due to father’s day celebrations
, so I will just attempt a few of the more difficult races all each-way shots:Hereford
3.50 Ruby Valentine
4.50 Classic FlyHexham
4.00 PatriotHaydock 7.45 June 18
1. 4* Little Rock (my 3rd choice)
2. 4*
3. Non-runner
4. 4*
5. 2*
6. 5* Shadow Catcher (my 2nd choice)
7. 5* Chill – £18 stake
8. 3*Royal Ascot 3.05
1. 4*
2. 1*
3. 0*
4. 0*
5. 5* Genius Beast (my 3rd choice)
6. 6* Glen’s Diamond – £17 stake
7. 0*
8. 1*
9. 2*
10. 5* Nathaniel (my 2nd choice)
11. 1*
. I could have a couple of savers to clear £100 and put the rest on Prince Siegfried instead, but I doubt it:
.
. I see you are still referring to Van der Wheil so why not just follow the principles he advised? For example every race today at Donny is of a class that lends itself to the method – you know £class, consistency, Formcast, RPR:
. Let’s see if we can confound him by finding some winners 
, so I will just attempt a few of the more difficult races 
all each-way shots: