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Zilzal,<br>As far as I am aware there is only one official ’tissue’ for use by bookmakers on course as a starting point for the market.<br>Most of the press sports pages provide at least a partial betting forecast for each race, as you will be aware. The problem is not knowing what factors have been used in the compilation, and that’s why they vary so much. The factor in favour of the RP betting forecast is that it provides odds for every runner in a race.<br>In my case I use mainly form plus a couple of other factors and I may not always be right but at least I know how they are derived.
Just to highlight the principles from my previous post here are the ‘fair’odds for the Newbury 2.40, Dec 29, calculated from RPR and Adrian Massey:<br>No<br>2 153 100/30 (5/1)Kanpai<br>7 144 9/2 (11/2)Wichita Lineman<br>3 141 11/2 (13/2)Massini’s Maguire<br>6 141 11/2 (11/2)Sir Jimmy Shand<br>4 139 6/1 (11/2)Roll Along<br>5 130 12/1 (7/1)<br>1 127 16/1 (1000/1)<br>8 120 150/1 (17/2)
NB:The prices in paranthesis are from Adrian Massey ratings.
Finally here is my independent tissue from my own ratings:<br>Kanpai 2/1. Won, ran on gamely to lead. Not so impressive<br>Sir Jimmy Shand 11/2. Won, forged clear, comf. Stiffer task<br>Roll Along 11/2. Won, led, riiden right out. Bright prospect.<br>Rothbury 6/1. Won, stayed on well, edged left, driven out. Lot more required here.<br>Wichita Lineman 17/2. 2nd chsed winner, stayed on. Should be more to come.<br>Massini’s Maguire 10/1. UR, blundered. Needs more here.<br>Mossville 66/1<br>Battle Cry (no odds, no rating)
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(Edited by Formath at 8:01 pm on Dec. 28, 2006)
Just very qickly I have assessed the Lei 1.30 and priced it up if it is of any interest:
Copper Bay 13/8<br>Salhood 9/2<br>Desert Secrets 9/2<br>Ballyrainey 11/2
Zilzal,<br>IMO the Lei 3.30 is a very difficult betting race with not much advantage to punters.<br>I have a simple mathematical calculation for identifying odds from ratings, which will indicate what RPR believes fair odds would be. In this race its difficult as the ratings are close. I compile my own ratings by filtering runners through up to 8 critical factors and then score them to calculate my own independent tissue. This is what I have for the Lei 3.30:<br>Blackthorn 11/2. 2nd ridden to lead, hung, headed near finish. has demamnding task here.<br>Dhehdaah 6/1. 4th, hit 4 out, driven, one pace. Could be thereabouts.<br>La Grande Villez 6/1. Won, 3lengths ahead, mistake last, stayed on. Yard in form.<br>Sonnengold 6/1. 6th, tailed off. Disappointing.<br>Prime Contender 9/1. 9th, unable to challenge. Of minor interest.<br>Not very enlightening I know,except maybe to put you off.<br>(If anyone would like a copy of the calculation written about please email me)
Form Possibles today:<br>Sedgefield<br>12.20 Nae Bother At All<br>12.50 ?<br>1.20 ?<br>1.50 Trailleur<br>2.20 ?<br>2.50 ?<br>3.20 San Peire, Zaffie Parson, Star Time
Fontwell<br>12.40 ?<br>1.10 Speed Winner<br>1.40 Hoh Viss, Flintoff<br>2.10 Isam Top, Brave Jo<br>2.40 Mayoun<br>3.10 Levallois, Ebony Jack<br>3.40 Norton Sapphire, Win A Rose, English Jim
Form possibles at Fakenham<br>12.50 ?<br>1.20 Altay<br>1.50 Avalon, Allaboveboard, Beyondthrealm<br>2.20 Herecomestanley<br>2.50 What A Vintage<br>3.20 Beauchamp Star
This is my third post as a member but an experienced punter. Believing past performance to be a sound basis for selection the first thing I do each day is to look at overall form, very recent form and the possible market.<br>Whilst the runners identified are almost inevitably at the short end of the market under the right conditions there is a high strike-rate. These are the form possibles today:<br>Kelso<br>12.30 Uneven Line, Kempski<br>1.00 According To John<br>1.30 Tin Healy’s Pass<br>2.00 Ever Present<br>2.30 ?<br>3.00 To Tiger, Bywell Beau<br>3.30 Raining Horse<br>Warwick<br>12.40 ?<br>1.10 ?<br>1.40 ?<br>2.10 Four Schools<br>2.40 Killard Point<br>3.10 Curly Spencer, Mr Dow Jones<br>3.40 Johnny Bissett
I am a newby to the forum and this is my first post but I have been following UK racing for over 50 years.
The going forecast is GS with a wet night too.<br>The RP f/c this as a restricted race indicating that the winner will come from the first 7 in the forecast.<br>The most fancied of these in order of preference:
Montgermont down 7lbs and off track 232 days? But should be considered.<br>Turpin Green up 6lbs and could be favoured by the D.<br>State Of Play up 16lbs? Off track 232 days? Otherwise a leading contender.<br>Idle Talk up 3lbs. Not proven on soft going?<br><br>I trust that you won’t mind but I am going to have a second bite at the cherry and cover all the runners from the short half of the RP betting forecast. Bearing in mind that the race today is 26.5GS:
MONTGERMONT down 7lbs. 5th by 21L, 25G 232 days since – weakened<br>TURPIN GREEN up 6lbs. Won by 28L, 20S 19 days since – STAYED ON STRONGLY TO GO CLEAR*<br>STATE OF PLAY up 16lbs? Won by 16L, 25G 232 days since – CLEAR LAST, EASED*<br>CORNISH REBEL up 3lbs. PU, 36GS 231 days since – behind, hampered, jumped slowly<br>IDLE TALK up 3lbs. 2nd by .5L, 28GS 14days since – BATTLED ON WELL, JUST HELD*<br>JUVEIGNEUR up 1lb. 3rd by 6.5L, 21GS 13 days since – ridden, no extra flat<br>VODKA BLEU down 4lbs. 2nd by 3L, 21GS 14 days since – heade before last, just held on for 2nd
(Edited by Formath at 1:03 pm on Nov. 25, 2006)
