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Carlisle,<br>No I don’t make a living from betting and never have.<br>It’s just a time-consuming hobby and I am pleased to break even at the end of a season. I have never been professional enough in my opinion e.g., I have never gone racing enough to see the runners in the flesh, nor do I view enough videos these days<br>I have made money over the years from writing about racing rather than betting and I suspect a lot more racing hacks and broadcasters come into that category.
If you wish I can transfer a free email book provided by RSB that details in depth the problems you face in becoming a successful pro-punter, it’s worth a read.
Finally, I did make fair amounts of money in the 70’s backing strongly fancied runners for a tote place, where they never paid less than 11p to the basic 10p at the time. Then they changed the rules, as always, to 10p for 10p and the profits began to dry up.
3.40 Lingfield<br>Mighty (8/11 won) – down 3lbs, won 1st of 7 +1.75 lengths, C&D2 leading contender with more to come. Odds-on no bet<br>Cusoon (15/8 2nd) – up 6lbs, 2nd of 7 -1.25 lengths, forced wide, hanging, held. Good draw. Capable of better and won’t be far away.<br>Atlantic Quest (14/1) – down 7lbs, 4th of 7 -4 lengths, chased, hung, stayed on same pace. More needed here.
3.50 Newbury<br>Ashley Brook (9/4 2nd) – down 6lbs, won 1st of 13 +20 lengths, made all, steadied, quickened clear. Smart chaser likely to take plenty of catching. Stake 1 pt lost, due 2, bank 158.87<br>Foreman (9/2 PU) – same weight, 3rd of 5 -6.5 lengths, ridden held, weakened. Can go well if back to best.
(Edited by Formath at 5:30 pm on Feb. 10, 2007)
cormack, <br>Here is the staking plan as published in the Sporting Chronicle Handicap Book sports forum, March 23, 1978, except that the requirement to recover tax has been omitted:<br>"Readers may be interested in the method I have used for over 40 years which basically aims to ensure one point profit from each bet":<br>Stke_Res__Won_Lost_Aim_Debit Due_Credit<br>1___ Lost_______1___+1____2<br>2___ Lost_______2___+1____5<br>3___ Lost_______3___+1____9<br>4___ 2-1W_8 pts_____+1____2<br>3___ Lost_______3___+1____6<br>4___ Lost_______4___+1____11<br>5___3-1W_15 pts_____+1____0_____10 points
"Stakes are increased by 1 point each bet until the debit (due) is reduced to zero. However, note that stakes should not exceed debit by more than 1 point…(The point added is the profit wanted)."
3.40 Kempton<br>Milan Deux Mille (Evens won) – down 1lb, won 1st of 14 +3.5 lengths, led, clear, 7 lenghts ahead eased. Still plenty in favour even though up in overall class. Stake 1 point won, +1pt, due 0, bank 159.87<br>Mambo Des Mottes (9/2 4th) – down 5lbs, 2nd of 7-2.5 lengths, pecked, soon headed, kept on same pace. Jumping ability is the concern?
3.50 Wolverhampton (Race abandoned due to adverse weather)<br>Canadian Danehill – down 9lbs, won 1st of 11 +.5 of a length, headway, ridden to lead inside final furlong. C&D hat trick Monday and has to be hard to beat. Poor draw? Stake depends on result of Kem 3.40.<br>Almaty Express – up 5lbs, 2nd of 11 -.5 of a length, ridden, headed near finish. C&D3 could go close. Fair draw.<br>Financial Times – up 2lbs, 2nd of 9 -.5 of a length, ridden, headed finish. May be thereabouts but could find at least one too good. Poor draw?
(Edited by Formath at 5:25 pm on Feb. 9, 2007)
3.30 Southwell<br>Waterside (7/4 2nd lost) – same weight, won 1st of 6 +1.5 lengths, ridden, driven, stayed on well. Performs well on this surface and better at this D. Stake 3 points lost, due 6.5 pts, bank 148.87<br>Party Boss (5/6 won) – up 2lbs, 3rd of 8 -2.75 lengths, headed, outpaced, lost 2nd place. Has better form on polytrack.<br>Wessex (10/1 3rd) – down 4lbs, 9th of 9 -12.5 lengths, held up, always towards rear. Disappointing effort?<br>4.20 Taunton<br>Even More (5/2 won) – same weight, 2nd of 12 -.5 of a length, led, outpaced, rallied, stayed on well. C&D2 won this race last year. On  better terms with Wizard Of Edge today. Stake 4 points won, +10 pts, due 0, bank 158.87<br>Wizard Of Edge (13/2 2nd) – up 10lbs + .5 of a length beat Even More. Led, driven clear, hit last, all out. On top of game but has 7lb penalty to defy.<br>Just for interest the straight forecast paid £17.38
(Edited by Formath at 5:29 pm on Feb. 8, 2007)
Keepin’ on, keepin’ on through the inclement weather lol.<br>3.30 Lingfield<br>Super Frank (15/8 Won) – same weight, won 1st of 10 +1.75 lengths, set decent pace, ridden, stayed on strongly. Progressive C&D3. Stake 4 points won, +7.5 pts, due 2.5 pts, bank 151.87.<br>Josh (7/2) – down 7lbs, 3rd of 10 -2.25 lengths, ridden chased winner, no impression, lost 2nd place. 7lb better off after 3rd to Super Frank last time. Cheekpieces off today. Good draw.<br>Katiypour (6/1 2nd) – down 2lbs, 2nd of 9 -1.25 lengths, closing, squeezed, hit by rivals whip, stayed on. Genreally consistent and should be thereabouts. Best draw.<br>Just for interest the straight forecast paid £13.07
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(Edited by Formath at 5:31 pm on Feb. 8, 2007)
Class Tells, Artemis,<br>In my opinion the class by prize money criterion was not a strong element of the VDW methodology, although it does give some idea of ability for horses wherever they come from.<br>The reason that I state that the prize money criterion was not critical to the methodology is that it was not mentioned in the VDW correspondence until a letter (possibly a commissioned article) published in the SCHB Sports Forum, May 29, 1980. This was over 2 years since the initial VDW letter, Feb 2, 1978.<br>Leaving out the mechanics I quote:<br>"A simple way to rate the field on ability is to relate the prize money won to the number of races won……For obvious reasons this is not foolproof, but at least it enables a better judgement to be made and usually it is unwise to stray from the top few…..With minor modifications the method of rating can be applied to flat racing, but I must stress again ratings are a guide and should be used in conjunction with other factors. This method does not evaluate the ability of any horse that has not won, but there are ways of doing so which should be used in conjunction."
Class Tells,<br>My subset is obtained by applying the basic VDW methodology to ‘narrow the field’, as far as possible.
3.40 Southwell<br>The headings for the starred items after the horse’s name are: £’s Class, Consistency 1, Consistency 2, RPR, D.Mail Formcast:-<br>1* Sweet Pickle___*_*_*_*_*<br>2* Black Sea Pearl_*_*_*_*_?<br>3* Muara________?_*_*_?_*<br>4 Fortress_______*<br>5* Glamaraazi____?_*_*_*_?<br>6* Cerebus______*_?_?_*_*<br>7 Diktalex_______?_?_?_*_*<br>8 Pikaboo_______?
I trust you are able to more-or-less undestand the table.
No good class races today so this one from Southwell is really to keep the sequence going and avoid having a blank day.<br>3.40 Southwell<br>Sweet Pickle (5/1 3rd Lost) – up 10lbs? Won d/h =1st of 8, held up, headway, joined leader on line. Got up on the line to dead-heat at Wolverhampton. Stake 3 points lost,due 9, bank 144.37<br>Black Sea Pearl (3/1 2nd) – up 12lbs? Won 1st of 8 =2 lengths, ridden, stayed on to lead. May prefer farther?<br>
(Edited by Formath at 5:28 pm on Feb. 6, 2007)
Measuring value when betting is difficult but possible to achieve in limited fashion by applying a simple arithmetical calculation to any rating figures.<br>Taking the next race at Hexham today, Feb 5, 07 and calculating the fractional odds from the percentages derived from RPR and Adrian Massey the outcome is:
2.30 Hexham<br>Thatlldoforme = RPR’s opinion 9/4, Massey 3/1 (SP 11/4)<br>San Peire = RPR 11/4, Massey 95/40 (SP 7/2)<br>Open De L’Isle = RPR 9/2, Massey 7/2 (SP 2/1)<br>Not perfect but it does provide independent advice to compare with market offers.
(Edited by Formath at 5:51 pm on Feb. 5, 2007)
2.00 Hexham<br>Dom D’Orgeval (2/5 Won) – up 3lbs, Won 1st of 6 +4 lengths, led 3 out, clear, heavily eased. Jumped well on debut at fakenham. Odds-on no bet<br>L’Antartique (7/2 2nd) – down 1lb, Won 1st of 4 +1 length (penultimate race), headed, regained lead, stayed on strongly. Had an unlucky fall at Kelso and can do better.
2.30<br>Open De L’Isle (2/1 Lost)) – up 4lbs, 6th of 9 -18 lengths, weakened hcap hdl Cheltenham. Stamina is the concern? Stake 2 points lost, due 5, bank 147.37<br>San Peire (7/2 3rd) – down 5lbs, 3rd of 10 -15 lengths, kept on for modest 3rd. Has not been on song.
(Edited by Formath at 5:37 pm on Feb. 5, 2007)
There is no selection today except on the off-chance that Degas Art by some fluke makes even money.<br>2.30 Musselburgh<br>Degas Art (2/5 Won) – up 2lbs, Won 1st of 5 +.5 of a length, kept on under pressure, held on. Improvement likely and is the one  to beat.<br>Purple Moon (9/4 2nd) – up 12lbs? Won 1st of 12 +3 lengths, ridden and quickened to lead. Capable of better
(Edited by Formath at 6:44 pm on Feb. 4, 2007)
1.35 Sandown<br>Madison Du Berlais (8/1 Lost) – down 3lbs, Won 1st of 9 +4 lengths, led 9th, clear next, eased. Improver up in class.<br>Stake 1 point lost, due 2, bank 149.37<br>Andreas (9/2 3rd) – up 1lb, 3rd of 11 -4 lengths, challenged then one-paced. Not performed as well as expected.<br>One Way (11/1) – up 12lbs? 2nd of 5 -5 lengths, kept on well, no chance with winner. Likely to go well.<br>2.40 Sandown<br>New Little Bric (10/11 Won) – down 2lbs, Won 1st of 3 +41 lengths, led 6th, unchallenged. Popped round at Exeter, up in class here. Odds-on no bet<br>Aztec Warrior (7/2 2nd) – down 3lbs, Won 1st of 5 +5 lengths, 9 lengths ahead, eased. Improving chaser.<br>All Star (10/3) – up 1 lb, Won 1st of 7 +1.75 lengths, quickened to lead, ran on well. has decent turn of foot.<br>Just for interest the straight forecast paid £2.43
(Edited by Formath at 5:03 pm on Feb. 3, 2007)
Artemis,<br>I suppose you could carry on increasing the staking progression for as long as you could place the bets. However, in my case I decided to risk a bank of 120 points and that covers a straight losing run of 1 – 15.<br>Hopefully, my selection technique will be good enough so that I don’t break the bank I have allowed, in fact if I keep sweeping off the surplus every time I go over the original I won’t finish in such bad shape anyway.
2.25 Catterick<br>Milan Deux Mille (7/2 Won) – up 2lbs, Won 1st of 10 +7 lengths, clear, well in command. Progressive and gets on well with jockey Malone. Stake 4 points +14 pts, due 0, bank 150.37 and 30 points up since starting Jan 23<br>Sound Of Cheers (11/2) – down 7lbs, 3rd of 7 -5.5 lengths, headed, one-paced. Off a handy mark.<br>Cumbrian Knight (13/2 2nd) – down 14lbs, 3rd of 6 (penultimate race), headway, outpaced, no impression. 3rd here in December.<br>Just for interest the straight forecast paid £26.63 and Exacta £35
(Edited by Formath at 6:07 pm on Feb. 2, 2007)
3.10 Wincanton<br>Flying Enterprise (6/4 2nd) – up 19lbs? Won 1st of 10 +8 lengths, challenged, led, stayed on strongly. Developed into a good chaser, up in weight but dropping back in D. Stake 3 points lost, due 9, bank 136.37<br>Trouble At Bay (7/4) – up 5lbs, 2nd of 6 -10 lengths, challenged, bumped, outpaced by winner, said to have been out of sorts and a better run expected today.
(Edited by Formath at 5:53 pm on Feb. 1, 2007)
3.40 Leicester<br>Mokum (4/1 3rd) – up 18lbs, Won 1st of 13 +.75 of a length, headway, stayed on under pressure. C&D December but my concern is the weight increase? Stake 2 points lost, due 5, bank 139.37<br>Sitting Duck (5/1) – up 6lbs, Won 1st of 11 +1.75 lengths, ridden, hung right, all out. Stamina is the doubt?<br>Lizzie Bathwick (10/1 3rd) – down 4lbs, 3rd of 17 -15 lengths, not fluent, outpaced, stayed on flat. Reliability and also class are concerns?
I considered the Lei 3.10 too but decided it was even more trappy than the race elected. John Forbes would have been the selection with 3 creditable runs this term but up 11lbs, followed by Burntoakboy but up 17lbs?
(Edited by Formath at 6:29 pm on Jan. 31, 2007)
