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Class Tells,<br>My subset is obtained by applying the basic VDW methodology to ‘narrow the field’, as far as possible.
3.40 Southwell<br>The headings for the starred items after the horse’s name are: £’s Class, Consistency 1, Consistency 2, RPR, D.Mail Formcast:-<br>1* Sweet Pickle___*_*_*_*_*<br>2* Black Sea Pearl_*_*_*_*_?<br>3* Muara________?_*_*_?_*<br>4 Fortress_______*<br>5* Glamaraazi____?_*_*_*_?<br>6* Cerebus______*_?_?_*_*<br>7 Diktalex_______?_?_?_*_*<br>8 Pikaboo_______?
I trust you are able to more-or-less undestand the table.
Class Tells, Artemis,<br>In my opinion the class by prize money criterion was not a strong element of the VDW methodology, although it does give some idea of ability for horses wherever they come from.<br>The reason that I state that the prize money criterion was not critical to the methodology is that it was not mentioned in the VDW correspondence until a letter (possibly a commissioned article) published in the SCHB Sports Forum, May 29, 1980. This was over 2 years since the initial VDW letter, Feb 2, 1978.<br>Leaving out the mechanics I quote:<br>"A simple way to rate the field on ability is to relate the prize money won to the number of races won……For obvious reasons this is not foolproof, but at least it enables a better judgement to be made and usually it is unwise to stray from the top few…..With minor modifications the method of rating can be applied to flat racing, but I must stress again ratings are a guide and should be used in conjunction with other factors. This method does not evaluate the ability of any horse that has not won, but there are ways of doing so which should be used in conjunction."
I have to confess that I’ve never read any of VDW’s work, but I’m aware of his high reputation amongst systemites. It seems to me that many people, including myself, use methods which are very similar to VDW’s in that we have a number of variables(form, class, speed, recent form, jockeyship etc) and we give weight to each according to our preferences. I believe this type of model is very useful indeed, but the main difficulty is assigning prices to horses. If we just look at the best horse according to our list of variables, we will end up on a very high proportion of overbet favourites. These overbet types are very difficult to earn profits with, regardless of staking systems.
So, the majority of people doing this type of analysis are compiling a tissue and then backing those horses that are overpriced compared to their tissue.
artemis have you read the book by DAVEY TOWEY when you say [would knock of a few pounds of a handicap mark in slow run race] do you think by using his rate tables this may give the right amount i.e class over speed in sprints speed over class in distance races the book is called SOLIDUS a great read
I’ve never read the book, but I’m aware of the Solidus.
A good class race run in a fast time is proof positive of solid form. No argument. A moderate time isn’t necessarily bad, but it calls the form into question.
If a moderate horse runs a very fast time out of the blue, it’s highly likely that something isn’t quite right with the distance, going, tail wind or timing. There is always a chance that the above errors can also occur with high class horses.
hi artimis if you give solidus a read it may give you a calculation as to how much to give or take away from your handicap ratings depending on a fast or slow run race helps to give one rating
You could even subscribe to Racingsense and get the whole thing worked out for you, for a tenner a month.
Keepin’ on, keepin’ on through the inclement weather lol.<br>3.30 Lingfield<br>Super Frank (15/8 Won) – same weight, won 1st of 10 +1.75 lengths, set decent pace, ridden, stayed on strongly. Progressive C&D3. Stake 4 points won, +7.5 pts, due 2.5 pts, bank 151.87.<br>Josh (7/2) – down 7lbs, 3rd of 10 -2.25 lengths, ridden chased winner, no impression, lost 2nd place. 7lb better off after 3rd to Super Frank last time. Cheekpieces off today. Good draw.<br>Katiypour (6/1 2nd) – down 2lbs, 2nd of 9 -1.25 lengths, closing, squeezed, hit by rivals whip, stayed on. Genreally consistent and should be thereabouts. Best draw.<br>Just for interest the straight forecast paid £13.07
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(Edited by Formath at 5:31 pm on Feb. 8, 2007)
3.30 Southwell<br>Waterside (7/4 2nd lost) – same weight, won 1st of 6 +1.5 lengths, ridden, driven, stayed on well. Performs well on this surface and better at this D. Stake 3 points lost, due 6.5 pts, bank 148.87<br>Party Boss (5/6 won) – up 2lbs, 3rd of 8 -2.75 lengths, headed, outpaced, lost 2nd place. Has better form on polytrack.<br>Wessex (10/1 3rd) – down 4lbs, 9th of 9 -12.5 lengths, held up, always towards rear. Disappointing effort?<br>4.20 Taunton<br>Even More (5/2 won) – same weight, 2nd of 12 -.5 of a length, led, outpaced, rallied, stayed on well. C&D2 won this race last year. On  better terms with Wizard Of Edge today. Stake 4 points won, +10 pts, due 0, bank 158.87<br>Wizard Of Edge (13/2 2nd) – up 10lbs + .5 of a length beat Even More. Led, driven clear, hit last, all out. On top of game but has 7lb penalty to defy.<br>Just for interest the straight forecast paid £17.38
(Edited by Formath at 5:29 pm on Feb. 8, 2007)
3.40 Kempton<br>Milan Deux Mille (Evens won) – down 1lb, won 1st of 14 +3.5 lengths, led, clear, 7 lenghts ahead eased. Still plenty in favour even though up in overall class. Stake 1 point won, +1pt, due 0, bank 159.87<br>Mambo Des Mottes (9/2 4th) – down 5lbs, 2nd of 7-2.5 lengths, pecked, soon headed, kept on same pace. Jumping ability is the concern?
3.50 Wolverhampton (Race abandoned due to adverse weather)<br>Canadian Danehill – down 9lbs, won 1st of 11 +.5 of a length, headway, ridden to lead inside final furlong. C&D hat trick Monday and has to be hard to beat. Poor draw? Stake depends on result of Kem 3.40.<br>Almaty Express – up 5lbs, 2nd of 11 -.5 of a length, ridden, headed near finish. C&D3 could go close. Fair draw.<br>Financial Times – up 2lbs, 2nd of 9 -.5 of a length, ridden, headed finish. May be thereabouts but could find at least one too good. Poor draw?
(Edited by Formath at 5:25 pm on Feb. 9, 2007)
Formath – your staking system – what’s the ‘due’ bit mean? Is it an accumulation of losses since the last win?
Can you elucidate?
cormack, <br>Here is the staking plan as published in the Sporting Chronicle Handicap Book sports forum, March 23, 1978, except that the requirement to recover tax has been omitted:<br>"Readers may be interested in the method I have used for over 40 years which basically aims to ensure one point profit from each bet":<br>Stke_Res__Won_Lost_Aim_Debit Due_Credit<br>1___ Lost_______1___+1____2<br>2___ Lost_______2___+1____5<br>3___ Lost_______3___+1____9<br>4___ 2-1W_8 pts_____+1____2<br>3___ Lost_______3___+1____6<br>4___ Lost_______4___+1____11<br>5___3-1W_15 pts_____+1____0_____10 points
"Stakes are increased by 1 point each bet until the debit (due) is reduced to zero. However, note that stakes should not exceed debit by more than 1 point…(The point added is the profit wanted)."
3.40 Lingfield<br>Mighty (8/11 won) – down 3lbs, won 1st of 7 +1.75 lengths, C&D2 leading contender with more to come. Odds-on no bet<br>Cusoon (15/8 2nd) – up 6lbs, 2nd of 7 -1.25 lengths, forced wide, hanging, held. Good draw. Capable of better and won’t be far away.<br>Atlantic Quest (14/1) – down 7lbs, 4th of 7 -4 lengths, chased, hung, stayed on same pace. More needed here.
3.50 Newbury<br>Ashley Brook (9/4 2nd) – down 6lbs, won 1st of 13 +20 lengths, made all, steadied, quickened clear. Smart chaser likely to take plenty of catching. Stake 1 pt lost, due 2, bank 158.87<br>Foreman (9/2 PU) – same weight, 3rd of 5 -6.5 lengths, ridden held, weakened. Can go well if back to best.
(Edited by Formath at 5:30 pm on Feb. 10, 2007)
Hi Formath
you say you have been betting for 40 years.  I am only a pup with 26 years service to the cause.
Do you make a good living from betting.
Average stake of ?????????<br>Annual pts profit of ???????
Hope you don’t think I am being rude.
I am trying to play hard ball at the moment and it’s tougher than I thought it was going to be. I have challenged myself to make 200pts this year.
byefrom<br>carlisle<br>
Carlisle,<br>No I don’t make a living from betting and never have.<br>It’s just a time-consuming hobby and I am pleased to break even at the end of a season. I have never been professional enough in my opinion e.g., I have never gone racing enough to see the runners in the flesh, nor do I view enough videos these days<br>I have made money over the years from writing about racing rather than betting and I suspect a lot more racing hacks and broadcasters come into that category.
If you wish I can transfer a free email book provided by RSB that details in depth the problems you face in becoming a successful pro-punter, it’s worth a read.
Finally, I did make fair amounts of money in the 70’s backing strongly fancied runners for a tote place, where they never paid less than 11p to the basic 10p at the time. Then they changed the rules, as always, to 10p for 10p and the profits began to dry up.
4.10 Southwell<br>Arsad (6/4 2nd) – down 9lbs, won 1st of 8 +5 lengths, led, stayed on strongly, readily. Course record of 1, 2, 1 augers well.<br>Stake 2 points lost, due 5 pts, bank 156.87<br>Flame Creek (10/1) – up 5lbs, 5th of 6 -17.5 lengths, headway, ridden, weakened. C&D2 by wide margins indicates could run better today.<br>Share The Feeling (4/1 3rd) – down 6lbs, 2nd of 7 -.25 of a length, ridden, headed close home. Needs to take to the track surface.
(Edited by Formath at 6:16 pm on Feb. 11, 2007)
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