October 11, 2004 at 00:16 #4037
what emphasis do you put on finding value<br> some,be it t v pundit or scribe seem to quote the word "value" as the be all and end all<br>if i can find a winner or placed horse that will double my stake then i am satisfied<br>is my logic wrong, should i be looking for "value"??<br>October 11, 2004 at 00:36 #93751
Of course you should never be looking to find "value". Favourites win most races so stick to backing them. Another great source of "value" are National Lottery scratch cards, BAGS greyhounds and the British Eurovision Song Contest entry. Never forget that a winner is a winner no matter what the price.October 11, 2004 at 01:35 #93753
as you say a "wnner is a winner",so why do these people state "the price is to short for me" etc.<br>are they trying to make themselves look more intelligent to the public <br>October 11, 2004 at 02:04 #93754
"why do these people state "the price is to short for me" etc. <br>are they trying to make themselves look more intelligent to the public"
Empty Wallet – I think you are right. It must be that they are trying to sound more intelligent than they are.
I often hear these people coming up with some brilliantly insightful analysis like "Good Thing is 3lbs better off with No Hoper for the one length beating he got last time so that should be enough for him to turn the tables. He should come on for that run and he’ll appreciate the gound and the step up in trip. He’s got an "ideal racing weight" and his shrewd trainer wouldn’t be sending him on a 700 mile round trip just for the exercise"
It’s obvious that this horse is a cert but these so-called experts are keen to show that they understand this trendy new concept of value so they blow all that brilliant analysis by stating "but he’s too short for me". A firing squad would be too good for them.October 11, 2004 at 02:34 #93756
maybe i should have started with
WHAT IS ?
WHEN IS ?
a value betOctober 11, 2004 at 07:03 #93760
Quote: from ACR1 on 1:36 am on Oct. 11, 2004[br] Never forget that a winner is a winner no matter what the price.<br>
Assuming you are not winding up ‘mr wallet’, although I suspect you may be, would you have accepted 1/10 about any of yesterday’s winners before the event. If you would then PLEASE, PLEASE keep backing in the same races as me!
RobOctober 11, 2004 at 09:29 #93761ArtemisParticipant
- Total Posts 1736
There is a large body of analysis that shows clearly that over a long period, horses win in direct proportion to their starting price. It also shows that you can expect to lose on average about 10 per cent of your stakes if you back singles only with a bookmaker. Any punter who beats this 10 per cent margin over a long period must, by definition, be obtaining value.
Those who back doubles, trebles, forecasts, and jackpot type bets will fare much worse as a group, losing about 20 per cent of their stakes. Amongst this group there will be a number of lucky people who manage to hit a big win and a much smaller group of shrewd backers who can get value by strategic betting on the tote.
Betting on the exchanges is different. I would say that anyone who makes a profit over a long period, is getting value.<br>October 11, 2004 at 09:51 #93766
Quote: from Artemis on 10:29 am on Oct. 11, 2004[br]
Any punter who beats this 10 per cent margin over a long period must, by definition, be obtaining value.
i can see no difference between a punter who backs 4x 2-1 winners and one who backs a 8-1 winner and still ends up with the same profit
E.WOctober 11, 2004 at 10:06 #93768
You are quite right. There isn’t any great difference, just that they are achieving value in different price areas.
When I started using exchanges I was approaching my bets with no clear idea of what price I wanted about a selection. In the end I just asked for odds 10-15% greater than those available at the time. This meant some bets were matched, some weren’t but I wasn’t making much headway. The problem was, and still is, that I’m not able to spend time watching the market and must put on my bets a few hours before the races.
What I’ve done to overcome the problem is to work out what I consider to be a value price for each horse, working on a 20% under-round which gives a decent margin. If the value odds or more than value odds I require are available then I take them, if not then I put in a request for my value price. At the moment it’s working very well. I’m tending to be ‘on’ at or near the top of the market and beating SP on 70-80% of bets. If a horse wins at a rate proportional to SP, then beating SP regularly gives me a fair chance of being in the black regardless of how good my judgement of odds is.
I now often back more than one horse against the field, rather than the single selection I used to favour.
It’s a method that was dictated to me by the use of exchanges and by time constraints. It could just as well be used for laying, but I’m happier with the ‘positive expectation’ of backing a winner rather than the ‘negative’ of laying a loser.
RobOctober 11, 2004 at 10:18 #93769dave jayMember
- Total Posts 3386
My interpretation of value is this;
After a long series of bets you end up with a profit. That means that the odds you get paid out to are higher than the chance of the bets winning. If you were to bet 6/4 shots all of the time (40%) pay out odds and they won 50% of the time (your chance odds) then you will be in profit and have found value.
Whereas, if they had only won 38% of the time you would not have found value and you would have made a loss.
I would suggest that you completely ignore ACR1 because heÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢s having a laugh. The value debate is common sense made into a science really and not clever at all.
You should also consider the cost associated with betting and try and factor that into your value, if you go down this route. The odds you get offered will always be against you as a punter and you have to consider other factors as well, like commission, over rounds and pool take outs,
Some costs to consider (a rough guide)
Tote pool bets have something like a 20% takeout. In a 10 runner race thatÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢s 2% per runner.
Bookies over round is also about 2% per runner, more over round on outsiders and less on shorter prices.
Exchanges, commission per runner, payable if you win, hence the appearance of longer looking prices,<br>Betfair, 5% per runner.<br>Betdaq, 3% per runner<br>Backandlay 1% per runner
You canÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢t avoid these costs, so you should try and minimise them and try and factor them into value bets. If you were to break even with your 6/4 shots, then you would lose slowly due to the cost of betting. The rate of speed with which you lose can be reduced dramatically by shopping around for the best prices and using the cheaper methods of bet placement, or balancing them out.
Hope that helps ÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã‚Â¦
ps. I agree with robnorth, I do my betting the same.October 11, 2004 at 10:34 #93770blobbyMember
- Total Posts 7
Anything is value if it wins empty.
The whole philosophy is based around accepting that you’re only human and you can’t expect to be right 100% of the time.
If you bet someone on the toss of a coin you’d have to be fairly naive to bet odds on. Similarly if you think a horse has a 50% chance of winning a race it doesn’t make sense to back it at below evens, and you’d ideally want odds against.October 11, 2004 at 11:32 #93771
Hands up – I was ‘aving a larf but I thought Empty was too coming up with that old chestnut at 1.15 in the morning. If you weren’t, Empty, then I apologise and of course you should be looking for value. BTW, it’s not usually to be found in the British Eurovision Song contest entry.October 11, 2004 at 12:00 #93773
What a pity! I’ll just have to cross you off my list of injudicious opponents!
RobOctober 11, 2004 at 12:18 #93776
ACR1 if you want to have a laugh at my expense,then by all means do <br> <br>i,m up for it :) :) :biggrin:October 11, 2004 at 12:25 #93778ricky lakeParticipant
- Total Posts 2358
hi Wallet , its a long time since Mark Cotton wrote about value , it was a good idea Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â then in theory at least .
Fact is you cannot Eat it !!!!
Winners when u back em
Losers when u lay em
They provide bread , all else is a load of cobblers
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