[Formath]

Just about broke even yesterday, which is not the aim of the game . On reflection, with the benefit of hindsight it was my own fault for dropping down to class 4 where the past performance record tends to go awry . The answer is that I should know better, do know better, not to force the issue.

That being the case I have nothing for today as the main protagonists lokk as though they will be going off too short for me to be interested. I did consider these races:
Bath 3.15
Jacob’s Pillow looks to go off as Fav but not too strong in the market currently.
Speed Hawk is the alternative being supported at 2.92.
Bath 4.15
Dittander set to be Fav 2.14
Multiquest next best 4.9
A possible bet would be Multiquest £5 to return £20 and Dittander £15 being the remainder of a £20 total stake. But not for me.
Yarmouth 7.50 rather early in the day for prices on this race.
Tanzeel likely Fav being supported 2.64

[Formath]

Continuing on my merry way with the two feature races from the afternoon meetings.

Newton Abbot 3.10
Forever My Friend £3 to clear £20
Cardigan Island £4
Porters War £3

Ayr 5.00
Powerful Presence £5 to clear £20
Gatepost £4
King Of Macedon £5

[Formath]

Almost 2 years since I was here, how time flies .
Anyway. there is no way that racing is flat today in fact it’s jumping . Taking the OR as the par for standard odds and eliminating those at longer prices than 1 less then the number of runners leaves any with chances in the market.

Southwell 3.45
Shubaat – £4 to clear £20
Mastermait – £5
Materofdeception – £4

Stratford 3.55
Able Deputy – £8 to clear £20
Croco Bay – £5

Perth 4.05
Imjoeking – £9 to clear £20
(Mwangaza £5 has weight in hand but is out of the handicap proper so off my radar).

[Formath]

Half a point down to level stakes on the top rated yesterday. Just ‘pattern of results’ – well that’s my excuse . Big fields mostly today so they could take some finding. In that case I checked out the top three in each race as far as I am concerned:

1.30 Calipto, Royal Irish Hussar, Guitar Pete
2.05 Never Enough Time, Cheltenian, Flaxen Flare
2.40 Kings Palace, Briar Hill, Captain Cutter
3.20 Bobs Worth, Sivianiaco Conti, On His Own
4.00 Pearlysteps, Thats Rhythm, Oscar Delta
4.40 Full Shift, Vieux Lion Rouge, Don Poli
5.15 Tanks For That, Next Sensation, Ned Buntline,

[Formath]

Could-a won! Should-a won yesterday, following the top-rated . So, just my top-rated today. By the way, they are carefully considered by recent form, time, market probability, yard etc and not just off the top of my head . What I am cr*p at is the backing plan .

1.30 Felix Yonger
2.05 Fingal Bay
2.40 Al Ferof
3.20 Annie Power
4.00 Colour Squadron
4.40 Indian Castle

[Formath]

Five points down with my varied staking yesterday, whilst at level stakes there was a seven point profit – what a WALLY ! . So today just selections by my order of merit for each race:

1.30 Faugheen, Red Sherlock, Rathvinden
2.05 Le Bec, Ballycasey, Corrin Wood
2.40 Dunguib, Bayan, Waaheb
3.20 Sire De Grugy, Arvika Ligeonniere, Hinterland
4.00 Balthazar King, Big Shu, Sire Collonges
4.40 Dawalan, Akdam, Baradari
5.15 Black Hercules, Killutagh Vic, Shaneshill

[Formath]

Back again after after an enforced break -it’s an age thing, cn’t miss Cheltenham tho’. What to do? What to do? Plenty of free advice from all and sundry including your truly . Let’s think back:

For punters, "The only thing that matters is the odds" stated by Morton Coles (a successful punter) and advised for consideration by Ken Hussey (the Split Second). On that basis by acknowledged good form and the betting market:

1.30 (The point value can be whatever your pocket will stand of course )
Irving – 6 points staked
Vautour – 5 pts
Wicklow Brave – 3 pts
2.05
Dodging Bullets – 4 pts
Rock On Ruby – 4 pts
Trifolium – 5 pts
2.40
Cantlow – 2 pts
Hadrain’s Approach – 2 pts
Holywell – 2 pts
3.20
Hurricane Fly – 7 pts
My Tent Or Yours – 6 pts
The new One – 7 pts
4.00
Glens Melody – 2 pts
Highland retreat – 2 pts
Quevega – 15 pts
4.40
Foxrock – 4 pts
Shotgun Paddy – 4 pts
Shutthefrontdoor – 6 pts
5.15
Persian Snow – 1 pt
Present View – 2 pts
Buywise – 1 pt

[Formath]

Just threequarters of a point profit yesterday, but a profit is a profit . Looked at the two UK mainland jumps meetings again today but I am getting bored with this now . I thought to spice it up I might try applying another old staking plan to compare with level stakes. The plan was originally used for even money chances at roulette, so no bets shorter than 1-1.

The One Point Coup

1. The aim is to stake the absolute minimum to win a maimum of one point per coup.
2. Always start a new coup with arrears of one point.
3. Commence staking with one point.
4. Stakes remain at the same level until a winner.
5. After each winner stakes are raised by one point.
6. After a loser remain on the same stake.
7. Continue as above until the arrears are reduced to zero.

Results/Stke/Arrears
L/1/2 (lost 1 + theoretical 1 = 2)
L/1/3
1-1/1/2
L/2/4
5-2/2/0 (end of coup as +5 -4 = +1 point)

Car 2.10 Little Boy Boru
Car 2.40 Snuker
Wnc 3.00 Enchanting Smile
Wnc 3.35 Chesil Beach Boy
Car 3.45 Edmund
Car 4.15 Allied Answer
Wnc 4.35 Slaney Star
Car 4.45 Basford Ben
Wnc 5.05 Rossa Parks

[Formath]

Over 5 points profit yesterday and cooking by gas if I say so myself . However, today’s racing fare is not up to Festival class, so a note of caution is appropriate.

Catterick
2.15 Barneys Honour
2.45 Harris
3.45 Douchkirk (you may prefer Newdane Dancer if supported)
4.15 Dark An Dangerous
4.45 Silk And Roses
5.15 Molly Cat

[Formath]

Threequaters of a point in front yesterday – sensational, and hoping to build on that success . Nothing fancy just level stakes all the way.

Exe 2.00 Here’s Herbie
Nwc 2.50 Mr Syntax
Exe 3.00 Five Star Wilsham
Exe 3.30 Beforeall
Exe 4.30 Rugged Jack
Nwc 4.50 Storming Gale

[Formath]

There is no fool like an old fool – down 5 points overall yesterday by cross staking and could have broke even on level stakes. TODAY there will be one selection a race to level stakes . Mind you the vibes are not good with all the withdrawals.

Southwell
2.30 Galway Jack
4.25 Walter De La Mare

Cloud Creeper and Barton Rose also ought to be thereabouts but most likely odds-on .

[Formath]

Forecast is for rain hereabouts this afternoon so I thought I might watch racing on TV sat by the stove and imbibe a couple of drams – it’s a hard life being an OAP . Omitted the maiden and bumper races from my calculations and sticking with the cross staking plan. Did I state no bets in any race with an odds-on runner? I can’t remember, my short term memory is shot to bits.

Hnt 2.30 Ratify, Little Jimmy
Sed 2.40 Big Sound, Madam Lilibet
Hnt 3.00 Thomas Junior, Embsay Crag
Sed 3.10 Mitchell’s way, See What Happens
Sed 3.40 Forward Flight, Ben Cee Pee
Hnt 4.00 Scotsbrook, No No Charlie
Sed 4.10 Bennys Well, Nail’m
Hnt 4.30 Glowinginthedark, Silver Gent
Sed 4.40 Tokyo Javlex, Bocamix

[Formath]

Thanks for the birthday greetings. A pity my selections did not give rise to celebration . I thought I might try finding a couple of selections from fancied runners at the short odds end of the market in the Channel 4 races, March 1, supported by cross staking:

CROSS STAKING

This staking plan is employed when backing 2 horses in each race.
(An alternative to dutching and in times past it was used to support 1st and 2nd forecast favourites in 3 mile handicap chases at the Principal National Hunt meeting of the day.)

So, we maintain two groups A anf B

Always commence staking 1 point per bet in each group.
The stake for the selection in a Group is always equal to the number of losers not cancelled by winners in the other Group.
Make out a table for recording bets adding columns for date, time, meeting and horse’s name.
Always star or cross out the number of losers in the results columns as they are cancelled (probably not explained very
well – I mean on winning cancel by marking out the number of losers in the other column equal to the amount of stake points on the winner).

Nwb 2.05 Who Owns Me Lost*1, Brackloon High Lost*1.
Dnc 2.20 Toubeera L*1, Mayfair Music 15/8 x 1 = +2.
Nwb 2.40 Tullamore Dew L1, Summery Justice 9/2 x 1 = +4.5.
Dnc 2.55 Simply Ned L1, Turn Over Sivola L*1.
Nwb 3.15 Tigris L2, Seventh Sky L*2.
Dnc 3.30 Monbeg Dude L3, Court By Surprise L*3.
Nwb 3.50 Shangani 3/1 x 4 = +12, Ulck Du Lin L4.

Next stakes 1 & 4.

Altered the title of this thread as I always take note of market moves when making a selection nowadays. Down a couple of points today after suffering from no luck in running, which could have made the difference. I hope the jockey who was injured is recovering.

[Formath]

Gingerstipster,

I have some sypathy with your point of view but still maintain that for the majority of punters it is illogical to seek selections beyond what the professionals indicate as the true mathematical odds in a race. If the combined weight of ststs compilers, bookmakers, connections etc., don’t make out a case, then the individual punter has little chance.

My mantra, which I have posted before, is the following:

MATHEMATICAL FORMULA OF EXPECTED VALUE

Example: EV = ½ (1) – ½ (1) = 0 advantage

Let me share a secret with you. Unless you accept and implement the principle detailed in the following article it is impossible profit by betting on horses in the long-term. Without adopting this strategy you must resign yourself to losing in the end.

Every bet made must be subject to the winning mathematical formula of expected value: –

EV = P (G) – P (L)
Where P is the probability of the event, G is the potential gain and L is the potential loss.

If the expected value is positive you have an overlay sound bet, conversely if the expected value is negative it is an underlay unsound bet. For example on tossing a coin strictly heads or tails that is evens as a return on your stake the EV = 0 and is a fair bet with no advantage to either party. Neither an overlay nor an underlay: –

EV = ½ (1) – ½ (1) = 0

If offered 4/5 the probability remains the same but G is now 0.8 and thus EV is negative. Naturally after one toss of the coin you are as likely to win as you are to lose but in the long-term over a number of spins: –

EV = ½ (0. – ½ (1) = – 0.1

This is what happens for example at the roulette wheel. Forget about staking plans etc., in the long-term at roulette both the probabilities and the potential gains/losses are certain so you must lose.

Horseracing offers a different scenario as the potential gains/losses are certain but the probabilities of events are subjective phenomena. For example if you believe Opera House had a 20% chance of success in the King George at odds of 4/1 the EV would be 0: –

EV = 0.2 (4) – 0.8 (1) = 0

However, at early prices Opera House was available at 8/1, therefore: –

EV = 0.2 (8) – 0.8 (1) = + 0.8

This indicates a positive return of 80% in the event of a winning run.

In the same race we may believe that Commander In Chief has a 30% chance of success, available at odds of 2/1, therefore: –
EV = 0.3 (2) – 0.7 (1) = – 0.1

If the probabilities were correct Commander In Chief would win a race more often than Opera House, but if only overlays are supported in the end they win.

Most people can accept the logic and validity of the argument presented (if you do not then you are mistaken because they are mathematical facts). However, it is alien to back anything but a major fancy in a race, which is natural and acceptable, so long as it is only backed if it is an overlay bet.

Profitability is inexorably linked with the law of expected value.
The probabilities assigned must be a function of statistical fact rather than subjective views.

[Formath]

Had trouble getting in here today, perhaps they are trying to tell me something

My race today is the Southwell 2.45.
4 for consideration are Set In Her Ways, Lord Landen, Gougane, Mezaraat.
MY odds required for Set In Her Ways 8 (7/1) at 11.40 Betfair market was 7.8 so just a tad short, but an each way chance. Gougane going shorter could be a danger.

[Formath]

Gingerstipster,
What am I trying to do? Just comparing a ‘fair’ odds betting forecast with the betting market at a given time related to a priced-up ratings service to eatablish if value selections can be identified.

With regard to odds it is an absolute fact that true MATHEMATICAL odds is one less than the number of runners in a race. This does not mean that they are the true FORM odds as this can only be established after the race, beforehand it’s just opinion. However I submit it is illogical to consider runners beyond the true mathematical odds if bookmakers, odds compilers etc do not make out a case for them.

Ffos Las true mathematical odds possibles today as per the Betfair betting forecast ‘fair’ odds (no increment for any book over-round).
It will be interest to see how many winners and placed horses there are:

12.55 (9runners = 8/1) Fishers Cross, Earth Tremor, Master Benjamin, Copper Birch
1.25 (9 = 8/1) Boyfromnowhere, Uncle Jimmy, Standing Ovation
2.00 (6 = 5/1) Anay Turge, Lady Willa, Whatshallwedo
2.30 (10 =9/1) eltus, Oscar Davy, Mountainous
3.05 (9 = 8/1) Weekend Millionair, Wayward Glance
3.40 (6 = 5/1) Quaiviro
4.10 (6 = 5/1) Castle Beach, John Reel, Ice Tres

The meaning of the Knapp Bridge Boy figures:
10 the decimal odds form the Betfair betting forecast
13 the decimal odds form the Betfair market at a given time
6 the decimal odds from a priced up handicap rating service
3 thew decimal odds form a priced up time rating service

[Formath]

Yes Steve – thank you for pointing that out – the exception to my rule prevailed

Keeping to the same basic rules today the race is Win 1.10

Column headings: Betfair betting forecast, Betfair market 11.30, MY shortest acceptable handicap odds, MY shortest acceptable time-based odds (added this column as my handicapper rates the field within 3lbs hence the odds with no definition)

1. 13/18/12/9
2. 8/7.4/12/5.5 Henry San
3. 7/9.6/7.5/nil Coolbeg
4. 10/5.6/12/16 Fairy Rath
5. 4.5/4.4/12/16 Chasers Chance
6. 2.6/3.6/7.5/81
7. 13/22/23/16
8. 15/15.5/12/nil
9. 12/8.8/12/4.5
10. 10/13/6/3.5 Knapp Bridge Boy

Those named are ‘expected’ being at or shorter than the true mathematical odds of 9/1. This indicates Knapp Bridge Boy (each-way) and Coolbeg by handicap. By time Knapp Bridge Boy and Henry San with one eye on Roll The Dice.

Totally off topic my punters book for the November hcap is:

First Mohican, Party Line, The Tiger, Bridle Belle

[Author]

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