It’s the Meerkat – Seemples?

[Formath]

Superman,

Throwing in the towel with Cheltenham on the horizon – no way Pedro I am just closing this thread as I can’t just write for my own satisfaction. I still believe the most critical factor for the punter is strike-rate and odds. Look at Kelso today. Winners at 4/6, 5/4, 2/7, 5/4 who go make a go of that?

I will probably pop up elsewhere on the boards with trainers as I usually concentrate on the top flight for Cheltenham – even today it was Henderson x 3 and McCain.

au revoir

[Formath]

Yes, it’s me back for the summer season, a couple of posts anyway. Forum sites seem to be suffering in general with the alternatives now available but I have a soft spot for TRF and would like to see it survive into the future.

Me, I am still plugging away with any method that exploits the betting market. Currently I support up to three form possibles in a race to clear £20 on the winning selection. Each runner having its own £500 bank.

My race today is the Haydock 3.50 the feature race on the card. I have shown the current odds available and stake, which may need to be adjusted for the actual bet nearer the off time:

4. Number Theory 5/1 £4 (shortened to SP 7/2 won £6 = +£21)
5. Ittirad 9/2 £5 (SP 4/1 3rd £5)
7. Mica Mika 5/1 £4 (SP 7/1 £3)

(A profit on the race of £13)

[Formath]

Site been down for me since my last post and I thought it was due to my usual ineptitude . Been mainly good results but one howler using this approach since the 13th.
A couple of caveats regarding the staking plan; No Bet in a race if any of the possible selections are not available at 2/1 or longer, or, if the total staking liability exceeds £20.
I found it difficult to choose a race today seeking a top class contest – swerving amateur riders, sprints, large fields, short odds. In the end I opted for the York 2.35 without a great deal of confidence as it looks pretty tight, with Daily Mail Formcast rating the field within 3lbs. More rain would confuse the issue even further IMO;

York 2.35 (note the odds will probably adjust and therefore the stake between now and the off time)

4. Hillview Boy 8/1 £3 (SP 8/1 lost £3)
9. Classic Colori 7/1 £3 (SP 11/2 lost £4)
11. Barren Brook 12/1 £2 (SP 8/1 lost £3)

Brought forward £13 – £10 lost today = +£3

[Formath]

There is No Bet for me today as in the only UK mainland race of my choice the strong favourite looks set to go off at odds-on

Salisbury 4.00
3.Definightly 4.7 £6
6. Our Jonathon odds-on?
10. Arctic Jewel 14 £2

No point in looking for something that is not here so it’s back to the Father’s Day whisky -it’s a hard life

[Formath]

Second thoughts, if you want to go mad and burn your your money you could consider these Voodoo W possibles at Salisbury to my staking plan:

2.20 1. 2. (7/2won £6 = +£21 – £9 = +£11) 7.
2.50 2. (2/1won £10 = +£20 – £6 = +£14)5. 7.
3.25 3. 5. (7/4 no bet race) 6.
4.00 1. 3. 6.(13/8 no bet race)
4.30 3.8/1 £3)6. 5/1won £4 = +£20 – £3 = +£17)
5.05 1.(5/4 no bet race) 2. 5.
5.35 1.(10/3 £6) 2.9/2 £5) 7.(8/1 £3) (-£14)

The final result at SP £28 a return of over 53% on possible liability a fine return IMO

It’s the whisky talking

[Formath]

Almost 2 years since I was here, how time flies .
Anyway. there is no way that racing is flat today in fact it’s jumping . Taking the OR as the par for standard odds and eliminating those at longer prices than 1 less then the number of runners leaves any with chances in the market.

Southwell 3.45
Shubaat – £4 to clear £20
Mastermait – £5
Materofdeception – £4

Stratford 3.55
Able Deputy – £8 to clear £20
Croco Bay – £5

Perth 4.05
Imjoeking – £9 to clear £20
(Mwangaza £5 has weight in hand but is out of the handicap proper so off my radar).

[Formath]

Continuing on my merry way with the two feature races from the afternoon meetings.

Newton Abbot 3.10
Forever My Friend £3 to clear £20
Cardigan Island £4
Porters War £3

Ayr 5.00
Powerful Presence £5 to clear £20
Gatepost £4
King Of Macedon £5

[Formath]

Just about broke even yesterday, which is not the aim of the game . On reflection, with the benefit of hindsight it was my own fault for dropping down to class 4 where the past performance record tends to go awry . The answer is that I should know better, do know better, not to force the issue.

That being the case I have nothing for today as the main protagonists lokk as though they will be going off too short for me to be interested. I did consider these races:
Bath 3.15
Jacob’s Pillow looks to go off as Fav but not too strong in the market currently.
Speed Hawk is the alternative being supported at 2.92.
Bath 4.15
Dittander set to be Fav 2.14
Multiquest next best 4.9
A possible bet would be Multiquest £5 to return £20 and Dittander £15 being the remainder of a £20 total stake. But not for me.
Yarmouth 7.50 rather early in the day for prices on this race.
Tanzeel likely Fav being supported 2.64

[Formath]

It more or less went as forecast yesterday, without my involvment owing to the short prices , as ever ‘when chances are high odds are low’. There is another old saying ‘having more winners than losers means probably losing overall’ meaning that the returns for betting at short odds seldom cover losses long-term. You might level that accustaion at my approach but not so as I do generally experience more losing horses than winners. The difference is that I hope to get a high prcentage of winning bets, which is a rather different kettle of fish .

Another day day another dollar but midweek stuff mainly for the benefit of official layers, owners, trainers and the rest of the ‘industry’. That indicates probably struggling to make it pay again today for us mug punters’.

Lingfield 3.40 and the feature race of the day, which is a disappointment as I am not a dirt track enthusiast, however beggars can’t be choosers.

Tenor 5.7 £5 to return £20 currently being supported
Knavery 3.6 £8 also currently being supported

Sandown 7.40 and rather early for the market but here we go.

Georg Cinq 3.8 £8 to return £20
Billingsgate 3.15 £10

[Formath]

The two races did the biz yesterday despite my negative comments.
You would think racing would be moving up a gear heading towards the weekend but it’s not the case as the two better grade races are just class 3. Swerving the Liecester 3.00 as their feature race has just 3 runners (I bet the Clerk of the Course is hacked off about it ) with Arod a strong odds-on Fav and Spark Plug the alternative.

Doncaster 7.00 a weight-for-age contest so no OR to give us a par indicating standard odds and so relying on the betting market for clues. Nothing over 7/1 leaves us nos 1, 5, 6, 7 to consider according to the current market. Quite surprised that Johnny Cavanagh – Hanagan up is off the radar at present., but it is early in the day.
Apostle 7.4 £4 to clear £20
King Torus 4.3 £7
Pipers Note 4.3 £7

[Formath]

Came out ahead again yesterday, which is encouraging , but it may not be as easy today owing to the forecast toght handicaps. Plenty of better class races to consider both in the afternoon and evening meetings.
After today I will probably bow out of this forum again and return to my former obscurity as there is relatively little in it for me as I am not on an ego trip. I was hoping to elicit some comments regarding my approach to selection and betting but nothing has transpired in the few posts I have made. Take no notice of my negative attitude – my better half says horse racing is stupid and she may be right, although she does go to bingo every week . Enough of that what about this afternoon?
Newbury
3.05 a very tight 3yo fillies hcap.
Cay Dancer £9 to clear £20 Hannon/Hughes being supported
Sea The Bloom £10 Stoute/moore being supported

4.45 a tight 3yo+ hcap.
Burano £4 to clear £20
Border Legend £4
Insaany £6 Johnston/Hanagan – long traveller

Nottingham 3.30 a tight 4yo+ sprint hcap.
Doctor Parkes £4 to clear £20
Megalaeka £4

That’s it folks! I may be back in a couple of years if I haven’t shuffled of this mortal curl, as Delboy said .

[Author]

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