It’s the Meerkat – Seemples?

[Lone Wolf]

Interesting stuff. You certainly seem to know what you’re doing. I just take different angles to different races. Right now i place more ante posts than anything else. I share your view that profit is more important than price, due to you not being a fan of losing money. What do you do when there is ‘late money’ just before the off ?…

[Formath]

Superman,
I have never been keen on ante post betting as it seems such a gamble uless you do a lot of hedging. Even then you never know what the ground is going to be on the day and that can be a major factor. As for late money it is best to wait for 15 minutes before the ‘off’ before wagering unless you do as I do and bet to your own evaluation of the price of a runner.

On another matter, with regard to trainers I rate the top trainers weekly, usually on Sunday, and keep an eye on how they perform. This is my current AW trainers list (I do include an increment for any last time out placing in the current season:

20 M Johnston
19 I Williams
18 R Fahey
17 D Nicholls
16 R Harris
15 A McCabe
14 M Botti
13 D Evans
12 R Beckett
11 R Hannon

These have been marked today as confirmed by the infineform site:

Lingfield
1.25 Lutine Charlie 23
2.30 Diamond Vine 26
3.00 Tarooq 25, Numeral 11
3.30 Exemplary 30 (nap)
4.35 Infortual 14

Wolverhampton
2.40 Little Garcon 14
3.15 Son Vida 20
3.45 Mount Abora 25
4.15 Halla San 18

I see I have gone right off topic

[Formath]

Superman,

My listed AW trainers did not perform at all yesterday but one day doesn’t make a season

Here is something for you to consider:

MATHEMATICAL FORMULA OF EXPECTED VALUE

Example: EV = ½ (1) – ½ (1) = 0 advantage

Let me share a secret with you. Unless you accept and implement the principle detailed in the following article it is impossible profit by betting on horses in the long-term. Without adopting this strategy you must resign yourself to losing in the end.

Every bet made must be subject to the winning mathematical formula of expected value: –

EV = P (G) – P (L)

Where P is the probability of the event, G is the potential gain and L is the potential loss.

If the expected value is positive you have an overlay sound bet, conversely if the expected value is negative it is an underlay unsound bet. For example on tossing a coin strictly heads or tails that is evens as a return on your stake the EV = 0 and is a fair bet with no advantage to either party. Neither an overlay nor an underlay: –

EV = ½ (1) – ½ (1) = 0

If offered 4/5 the probability remains the same but G is now 0.8 and thus EV is negative. Naturally after one toss of the coin you are as likely to win as you are to lose but in the long-term over a number of spins: –

EV = ½ (0. – ½ (1) = – 0.1

This is what happens for example at the roulette wheel. Forget about staking plans etc., in the long-term at roulette both the probabilities and the potential gains/losses are certain so you must lose.

Horseracing offers a different scenario as the potential gains/losses are certain but the probabilities of events are subjective phenomena. For example if you believe Opera House had a 20% chance of success in the King George at odds of 4/1 the EV would be 0: –

EV = 0.2 (4) – 0.8 (1) = 0

However, at early prices Opera House was available at 8/1, therefore: –

EV = 0.2 (8) – 0.8 (1) = + 0.8

This indicates a positive return of 80% in the event of a winning run.

In the same race we may believe that Commander In Chief has a 30% chance of success, available at odds of 2/1, therefore: –
EV = 0.3 (2) – 0.7 (1) = – 0.1

If the probabilities were correct Commander In Chief would win a race more often than Opera House, but if only overlays are supported in the end they win.

Most people can accept the logic and validity of the argument presented (if you do not then you are mistaken because they are mathematical facts). However, it is alien to back anything but a major fancy in a race, which is natural and acceptable, so long as it is only backed if it is an overlay bet.

Someone said: “You can beat the races but you cannot beat the race.” The meaning of that statement was that there is no such thing as a racing certainty? However, profitability is inexorably linked with the law of expected value.
The probabilities assigned must be a function of statistical fact rather than subjective views.

[Formath]

What with the weather and it being a run-of-the-mill racing Monday it doesn’t look like punter’s paradise today IMO

Trying to get back on track with my research into prices as the critical factor for winner-finding and using any system, method, ploy, strategy, approach to get there I have just priced up the first 5 races at Ayr by converting the infineform percentage ratings. So, any longer than MY odds listed has to be a possible, in my case has to be better than 2/1 tho’

Ayr
1.30 Mae’s Choice 6/5
2.00 Sydney Paget 85/40, Don’t Back Down 10/3
2.35 Eight Is My Number 1/4
3.10 Proud Times 7/4
3.40 Etxalar 5/2, Neptune Equester 3/1, Lockstown 10/3

[Lone Wolf]

I’ve read your formulae post. I’m as thick as two short planks, so i’m not in a position to discredit your assertion with regards to the math involved in long term profit. I think you’re saying that it’s impossible to gain long term unless you are consistantly backing horses that are contracting in odds. In my opinion, which is probably wrong, then i’d say it is possible to gain long term backing horses that lack the support that would’ve saw their price contract. This is because some horses/football teams are priced up to scare people off backing them, and as such some people look for alterior value. Some horses have a morning price of 1/2 and don’t get much support because off the odds, and then push out into 8/11. before bolting up. In the same race as the 8/11 horse bolted up, you would have used your formulae to back the 2nd fav that had a morning price of 9/2, but got backed into 7/2. However the horse you have backed on this occasion has been backed to oppose a shorter price, and maybe not because of it’s actual mathermatical chance. I’d say making a long term profit backing anything with no support is improbable as opposed to mathematically impossible. If you take Big Bucks for example, in his last 15 runs, his SP has lacked support and hasn’t changed or has drifted on 9 occasions. With Hurricane Fly, a similar pattern emerged. Maybe i could coin the phrase ‘nervous horses’, which is when a stable is so nervous about a horse coming back in one piece that they don’t care about backing him, and as such the market reads it as a lack of confidence !

[Formath]

Superman,

Actually the formula of expected value indiates that it is necessary to calculate your own odds for any selection and only support it when the available odds are longer – that is an overlay bet. The only way to beat the formula is to maintain so high a consistent strike-rate that the odds bet at are of no consequence and I would suggest this is almost impossible – Is Pricewise an exception?

Virtually all punters have more losing bets than winning bets in the long-term so with level stakes betting at short odds out to about 6/4 there is no possibility of making a profit. Good press tipsters in my experience attain about a 30% strike-rate, which means to make a marginal profit they need an average winning bet of 5/2.

On the other hand there is no point in supporting long-odds selections that have no market confidence, and I take beyond 10/1 as a rule of thumb. You can of course use true mathematical odds as your benchmark in races with small fields. The true mathematical odds being one point less than the number of runners in a race e.g., 9 runners that would be 8/1 or 5 runners 4/1. It is reasonable to suppose that if connections, the press and the market don’t make a case shorter than true mathematical odds the individual punter will not do better.

I rest my case

[Formath]

Superman,
Here is an extra today just for interest

I often compile my own form ratings to convert into odds rather than using RPR etc. The reason being that I know the variables that have been used to obtain the figures and hopefully I will attain more definition between runners. I employed 8 variables as filters today to rate and convert to odds, including – class, hcap rating, SF, weight-change, recnt form, overall form, course, distance, betting market, time off track. My odds are fair odds so to consider a bet I need to attain better odds in the market to gain an overlay bet.

Column headings: Cloth No, my rating firgure, my odds calculated from my rating.

Southwell 3.45
1. 6 66/1
2. 18 4/1 Ghostwing
3. 11 10/1
4. 11 10/1
5. 11 10/1
6. 10 12/1
7. 14 13/2 Upper Lambourn
8. 10 12/1
9. 12 17/2 Punching
10. 13 15/2 Joe Le Taxi

Normally I would now proceed tochecking the conditions of the race e.g. going, draw, trainer in form etc., but as it looks as though non of my ‘fancied’ runners will be available at overlay odds I will leave it there.

[Lone Wolf]

Very late money for the winner. The best of your selections drifted before the off, then went on to hit something like 1.26 in running. It’s a tough old game. I’ve had something like 1 winner in 4 months. In saying that i’ve been focusing on AP.

[Formath]

IMO this all-weather lark was mainly instituted to allow the betting industry maintain its turnover and to give low grade horses the chance of a race, not forgetting gambler’s who would suffer withdrawal symptons on a day with no betting

Just to keep my hand in I had a look at Kempton with the Fineform Master Formula and have listed the top-rated for each race:

Kempton
2.20 Whiteshift
2.50 Prickles
3.25 Lady Caprice
3.55 Satwa Laird
4.30 Discoverer
5.00 Spartilla
5.30 Rightcar
6.00 Lastkingofscotland

[Lone Wolf]

Well done there Jack. I really wanted you to get a winner or two on the board. As you have stated, you are 60 years and deeper in this game, and for that reason alone you obviously can’t be losing. I watch this thread more than any other, and will try and contribute when i feel i have a valide point. I even like your posts more than i like my own !

[Formath]

Superman,
You are too kind – but it wasn’t rocket science yesterday with 2 jollies and a second fav going in – just the old pattern of results syndrome.

Sticking with the polytrack again as there is no other option – I wonder if the snow will come in about 3.00? Same as yesterday just the top-rated Fineform:

Wolverhampton

2.25 Beneath
3.00 Drive Home (top-rated 20 today)
3.30 Crowning Star
4.05 Trip Switch
4.35 Al Freej
5.10 Gabrial’s Bounty
5.40 Flow Chart

Does anyone still use conditional bets these days or are we all back-to-lay and stuff? I tried to employ such a bet in the mid-70’s but not for long as William Hill’s said head office will not accept the bet. It went like this:

4 selections with reasonable chances. The bet is 1 point stop-at-a-win down the card and 1 point stop-at-a-win UP the card. It means there is only 1 point on losers but 2 points on winners.

Today we could go/
Beneath
Drive Home
Trip Switch
Flow Chart

and/
Flow Chart
Trip Switch
Drive Home
Beneath

[Formath]

Kempton a complete NH card without obstacles thta’s novel – just trying to keep my spirits up.

Southwell by Fineform
1.20 Caledonia Prince
1.50 Clodhopper
2.25 Where’s Reiley
3.00 Magic Millie (top-rated 20)
3.35 Zenarinda
4.10 Darsan
4.40 Ezra Church

How about a bit more nostalgia? Anyone recall the pocket-sized Sporting Investor magazine, 10p a month for syatems galore . In particular on the back page each time was a chart for doubles and trebles etc. It advised a reduced perm for 6 selections from 15 down to 6 bets with at least a double if three came in. Races 1-3, 1-6, 2-4, 2-5, 3-6, 4-5. Leaving out the short-proced Zenarinda we could attempt that at Southwell today

[Formath]

No messing about today let’s get back on the market trail at Musselburgh. These are the best rated Topspeed runners converted to guidline odds and mainly supported by form – let’s call them RIGHTPRICE . Pricewise eat your heart out.

Musselburgh
3.10
Woody Waller 6/1
Safari Adventure 7/1
Lightening Rod 8/1
Quit Du Tresor 17/2
3.45
Stormy Weather 8/1 (an each-way bet at the odds if ever I saw one )
Zafranagar 8/1
Koup De Kanon 8/1
Dontpaytheferryman 17/2

[Formath]

Reduced to NH bumpers at Southwell today what more can I say . Just best-rated Fineform in each race.

Southwell
1.15 Smadynium
1.45 Golden Call
2.15 Ophelia’s Kiss
2.45 Tornado Bob
3.20 Afsoun
3.55 A Little Swifter
4.25 Glen Contess

[Formath]

Racing is still in the doldrums so it’s a case of ‘Keep Calm and Carry On’ as they used to advise during WWII .
I checked out the Wolverhampton 4.40 a 4yo+ apprentice hcap over 9.5f and personally I have not got a clue. Mind you I am not alone as RPR and Formcast rate the field within 3lbs but for one runner in each case. Timeform has Dubai Bounty, Reachforthebucks as the best of the short end of the betting forecast No’s 1 (PatternForm has Sublime Talent well out in front on class and speed),2, 5, 6, 8. Draw advantage is said to be low so No’s 10, 7, 1, 2, 3, 8 are favoured. Nothing much in change-of-weight carried where Dazzling Valentine looks to have a slight advantage. Have you got all that, me neither

In the end I just converted Topspeed’s ratings to RIGHTPRICE guideline odds :

Wolverhampton 4.40

Opus Maximus 7/2
West End Lad 9/2
Dazzling Valentine 5/1

[Formath]

This is my last post today hopefully I may sign off with the market proving its worth . Just Topspeed ratings converted to RIGHTPRICE guidline odds:

Ayr 3.25
Best Lover 95/40
Charingworth 11/4

[Lone Wolf]

Are you throwing in the towel old timer ?

[Author]

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