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It’s the Meerkat – Seemples?

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  • #20822
    FormathFormath
    Member
    • Total Posts 1451

    Perhaps not just the market but what ‘informed’ opinion, such as trainers in form, is indicating via market moves. Consider Ascot today prices shown from about 11.35.

    1.00
    Triolo D’Alene 11/4
    Royales Charter 10/3
    Oldrik 7/1
    1.30 Baldetr Success 1/5
    2.05
    Kentford Grey Lady 6/5
    Violin Davis 9/2
    2.35
    Smad Place 5/1
    3.10
    Finian’s Rainbow 2/1
    Al Ferof 3/1
    3.45
    ? (looks a competetive handicap where Zaynar has a good track record)
    4.20
    Hadrian’s Approach 6/4
    Grove Pride 3/1

    #387801
    FormathFormath
    Member
    • Total Posts 1451

    Yesterday proved to be a good example of the approach described; namely to consider the market alongside trainers in form. However, yesterday was a top-grade course and today I have dropped down to a mid-grade course and it could be different again. One change is that there are not so many qualifiers.

    Market Rasen (Prices noted about 12.45)

    1.30
    Bar de Ligne 11/8
    2.00
    Ballintubber Cross 3/1
    3.05
    Mic’s Delight 8/15

    #387940
    FormathFormath
    Member
    • Total Posts 1451

    Wetherby
    1.15
    Gottany O’s 11/4
    Blue Destination 10/3

    I put the 1.15 up earlier as I am late today, but I wish I hadn’t bothered now :wink: . Monday racing can be difficult for punter’s as lower class horse form can be inconsistent. Anyway keeping on with my market/trainer approach here is the remainder of the Wetherby card. I am toying with including timeas a class filter test the effect on results :idea: .

    Wetherby (prices were noted at about 1300)
    1.45
    Tooman lane 6/1
    Mansonien 10/1
    2.15
    Mission Complete 9/4
    Code Blue 11/4
    2.45
    Cucumber 11/8
    Mac Aeda 5/4
    3.15
    Ashbrittle 4/5
    Info Wain 13/8
    3.45
    Hopeful Start 6/4
    4.15
    Orlittlebylittle 7/2
    Fair Spin 5/1

    Your comments for or against regarding this approach to betting would be more than welcome 8)

    #388071
    FormathFormath
    Member
    • Total Posts 1451

    Attempting to get better consistency I have opted for the better class races today.

    Leicester
    2.40 Tempest River
    3.40 Plum Pudding
    Southwell
    2.50 Even Stevens, Cadeaux Pearl
    Kempton
    4.30 Reachforthebucks

    #388205
    FormathFormath
    Member
    • Total Posts 1451

    Right! It’s back to square one today with this paper trial as adding filters and other mods does not seem to improve matters. So I am just concerned with trainer form when there is confidence in the short odds end of the market. With no interest in anything shorter than 2/1 or longer than 10/1.

    Musselburgh
    2.40 Absinthe, Ingleby Spirit
    3.10 Embsay Crag, Beidh Time Anseo
    3.40 Red Tanber, Oscar Hill
    4.10 Flaming Arrow, Spring Lane

    #388335
    FormathFormath
    Member
    • Total Posts 1451

    What possible advantage could this approach possibly provide over analysing past performance and relating it to the conditions of the forthcoming race :?:
    For myself it means avoiding a lot of time and effort checkig such variables as track grade, track configuration, weight allocation, times, recent form, overall form, diatnce, going, jockey, gamesnanship 8)

    Warwick
    1.25 Fire Fighter, Shalloon
    1.55 Queq’Un Comme Toi, Inga Bird
    2.25 Godsmejudge
    2.55 Pacha Du Polder
    3.25 Ockey De Neulliac
    3.55 Sizing America
    4.25 Key To The West, Whisky Yankee

    #388500
    FormathFormath
    Member
    • Total Posts 1451

    Where are we today? Perhaps a few remarks regarding my opinion on staking. Of the three elements that go into making a bet, selection, odds and staking, I find that phsycholgically staking is the most difficult. The reason being that by temperament I can’t abide losing, which means that if I don’t win at least I try not to lose too much. It means employing such devices as coupled odds, each-way, place only, a saver or savers, hedging etc. My preference is for coupled odds providing the odds available are sufficient.

    I have moved away from trainers today and have opted for another ‘simple’ system attempting to reduce the work involved and have used Clive Holt’s Finefom Master Formula to identify selections (for the uninitiated the Formula rates any race by the betting forecast, current season recent form, C&D winners, and a handicap rating). In my case I am seeking coupled odds for up to 3 runners in the 2/1 – 10/1 range and not just the top-rated. Maximum rating score is 20:

    Huntingdon (just the two best class races)

    2.40 (just for interest the form trainers are No’s 3, 4, 1)
    3. Supreme De Paille 13
    4. Clash Duff 10
    1. Court Red Handed 9

    3.10 (form trainers are No’s 5, 2, 1) I find that hcap hurdle races are the most difficult to assess over the jumps.

    1. Benny Be Good 9
    5. Dorset Square 11
    11 Rose Of The Moon 14

    This is not an ego trip for me as I have been following UK racing for over 60 years now so am rather old-fashioned but I would welcome comments from anyone. In fact you can contact me
    Jackform at aol.com if you would prefer to have a one-to-one private discussion 8)

    #388658
    FormathFormath
    Member
    • Total Posts 1451

    As I cannot pursuade any dialogue on this approach it is going into suspended animation :cry:

    #388785
    Oasisdreamer
    Participant
    • Total Posts 305

    Hi Formath,

    Interesting you mention Fineform as I had a re-read of the book over the new year, looking to refocus on the basics of ratings and analysis so to speak.
    I took the basic formula and applied 2 points to each of the RPR, Topspeed and Horseracebase top 3 rated so my max is 22 points as opposed to 20 under Fineform.

    I agree it’s a quick and simple way of rating a race and the ratings can then be considered with other factors like trainer form. The disadvantages being it that the typical top rated are at the front end of the market.

    I tend to focus in on the my top 3 rated and see if they meet the softer filters like trainer form, track, class etc.

    Further considerations:

    Ignore last time winners in handicaps as they tend to be over bet.
    A minimum price filter, I’m thinking 4/1 plus but it may be more complex than that dependent on field size, e.g a 3/1 top rated in a 7 runner race may be better value than a 9/2 shot in a 12 runner race.
    I’m thinking of betting only those in the ratings that are top 3 rated and also return 15 points plus.

    With those filters it may cut the bets at the top end of the Market that tend to be over bet and therefore can be considered bad value.

    Looking at my list from today this would have identified Bless the wings, Captain Chris, Knight Pass from Cheltenham today. Shame I only backed the last named today!

    On the other hand I rated the 2.40 Uttoxeter as it had a nice shape to it with 9 runners and I find it easier to reduce the field with heavy ground conditions. Good to soft I find difficult as in essence it can suit both good and soft ground horses. The times at Donnie today suggest it was good ground but it was described as g/s with soft in places. There was a rail movement to complicate matters further.

    Back to the 2.40….I did my ratings last night but felt 2 of the top 3 (Teshali and Blazing Buck) had no chance on heavy ground. During the morning they drifted out of the top 3 in the betting so really shouldn’t have been awarded any points for the betting forecast. My form analyse highlighted Fentara who came 2nd. In summary the ratings can be useful but good old fashioned form study is needed in equal measure. By the way my other top 3 rated was River Dragon who came 3rd. I did the 2nd and 3rd in a forecast also so a pain to see the fav hold on!

    Hope my input gives you something to work on!

    #388929
    FormathFormath
    Member
    • Total Posts 1451

    Oasis,
    Thank you for the response – I hate chatting to myself :D.
    I understand about doing detailed analysis but I am just being idle and attempting to circumvent the work involved by mainly following the actual betting market. In fact this extract probably more or less encapsulates the idea:

    The following is a direct quote from a book ‘Come Fly With the Butterfly’ by John Mort Green, an old-time betting pro. The advice is still relevant now and can be recommended, particularly to inexperienced punters:

    1. Never be greedy.
    2. Never look at anything other than the best class horses,trainers and jockeys.
    3. Forget those dreams of 100/1 winners and be content with horses in strong demand in the market.
    4. Stop as soon as you are showing a profit on the day.
    5. Back unpopular riders on the Tote.
    6. Watch for eleventh hour jockey changes.
    7. Follow money from big betting stables.
    8. Learn to think the same way as trainers and jockeys.
    9. Always get value by trying to beat the book.
    10. Never lose confidence because you have lost everything else.

    The professional punter must always ensure that he is getting value. Gambling on horses is all a question of buying and selling. The punter must be like the man on the Stock Exchange, knowing exactly when to strike a transaction to secure the best bargain.

    As to the Fine Form Master Formula I use it to reduce the field to several runners more or less as it is given except that I use the three free Timeform selections instead of the first 3 in the betting forecast. Not much left today but the Ffos Las 4.00 looks like this:

    Ffos Las 4.00
    1. 15 Normally
    2. 3
    3. 8 Backstreet Billy
    4. 2
    5. 7 Turbulance
    6. 6
    7. 0

    #388969
    Oasisdreamer
    Participant
    • Total Posts 305

    Formath,

    An interesting quote there. Imo points 1,3,7, 8,9 & 10 are valid and the other less so.

    I ran some tests on horseracebase on top 4 placings in last 2 runs and the results were as expected. Horses coming first lto have a better strike rate next time than those that come fourth but more importantly the loss is greater on the 1st placers vs those that come 4th lto (no profits I’m afraid!). Again unsurprisingly non-handicaps fare better at the top end of the market than handicaps.

    So to make the idle system less costly we need to add some simple filters that are easily available. I’d consider adding points for trainerform last 14 days, trainer track form and for horse wins on the ground. You could argue that if the horse hasn’t already won on the ground it should not be selected whatever it’s other pointers say from the ratings.

    In summary I’m heading towards:

    15 points or more on my ratings
    4/1 or more
    Don’t bet lto winners in handicaps
    Add points for trainerform > 15% last 14 days and track record last 2 years
    Add points for horse having won on the ground
    Add points for horse hacing won in this class of race

    All of the above are pretty standard in any form analysis. It’s sometimes easier to spot if converted to a rating. It is for me anyway!

    #389025
    FormathFormath
    Member
    • Total Posts 1451

    Oasis,
    I would agree that if anyone is assessing form a rating figure to pull it all together is essential. I have an old RacingSystemBuilder free e-book (anyone is welcome to a copy if they PM me with an email address) and this is their summary:

    Summary
    We’ve set out in this book a series of steps you will need to take in order to make enough money from betting to make it your livelihood, or an important part of your overall investment strategy. These steps are:

    1.) Get yourself a systematic way of selecting horses to back. RSB is essential.
    2.) Subscribe to RSBcall daily to gain access to the most advanced ratings in the racing world. Ratings which are essential in order to identify the value bet.3.) Either follow these ratings blindly, or in combination with simple system rules devised with RSB.
    4.) If you think you can improve on these ratings systems devised with RSB, confine yourself to things which are not already accounted for in them. A sophisticated knowledge of equine and trainer quirks, for example, or a comprehensive approach to racing intelligence.5.) Acquire a betting bank, large enough to sustain a realistic professional betting campaign.
    6.) Never strike a bet which appears bad value.
    7.) Employ a sophisticated optimised staking plan.
    8.) Try to beat the SP, and check how you’re doing by keeping detailed records.
    9.) Don’t be discouraged by the long losing run. Every gambler has to cope with this.
    10.) Keep in touch with us. We will be developing ever more sophisticated weapons for the professionally minded punter in the years to come.

    I am sticking with the actual betting market as my top criterion and reducing the field with Fineform. The bet is coupling up to three runners in a race shortest odds 2/1 with a one point level stake on each runner. I will paper trade here and may even try a small progression of staking 1, 2, 3 when there are losses.

    I opted for Plumpton today owing to the forecast heavy going at Ayr.

    1.10 (infineform trainers are 2, 7, 8 )
    Montbazo
    Edlomond
    Victor Leudorum
    1.40 (3.1)
    Knock Boy
    Whitcombe Spirit
    2.10 (2, 5, 4)
    Akidieau
    Ruling Party
    Seedsman
    2.45 (1, 7, 5)
    Bring It On Home
    Blue Lovell
    Ballinhassig
    3.15 (2, 5, =3&6)
    Storm Survivor
    Go Amwell
    Deep Pockets
    3.50 ( 10 , 7, 1)
    Just Beware
    Wheres Johnny
    Marju King
    4.20 (9, 5, 1)
    Tidal Dance
    Dunlough Bay
    Bamboleo

    #389156
    FormathFormath
    Member
    • Total Posts 1451

    Fineform managed to name a good percentage of winners yesterday and the system still lost 6 points :? . Proof of the old adage that if you are getting more winners than losers you are probably losing money overall. As it is only paper trading it’s not a problem as like the BOE with quantatative easing I can just keep throwing virtual money at the problem :D

    Taunton
    1.40 (infineform trainers Nos 8, 5, 11, 7)
    That’s Some Milan
    Acosta
    Lost Two Stars
    2.10 (14, 2, 4)
    Sew On Target
    Constant Contact
    Dynamic Idol
    2.40 (5)
    Easter Meteor
    Shammick Boy
    Sanctuaire
    3.10 (5, 2, 3)
    Grey Gold
    Ted Spread
    Monetary Fund
    3.40 (9, 8, 2)
    Arctic Watch
    Anay Turge
    Val Mondo
    4.10 (4, 1, 6)
    Star Galaxy
    Wessex Time
    Renard
    4.40 ( 12, 5, 10)
    Gowithdflo
    Dimpsy Time
    Go Annie

    #389284
    FormathFormath
    Member
    • Total Posts 1451

    Four winning Favs at Taunton yesterday and my approach still lost another 8 points so I am kicking it into the long grass for now :D

    Just Newcastle today and I thought at the odds these may do:
    2.50 Best Legend
    3.50 Definite Approach

    Remember the Flying Dutchman (VDW) in 1978 he began by writing that the three most consecutive from the first 5 or 6 in the betting forecast is where it’s at and that would mean Definite Appeal is not one to be on :roll:

    #389431
    FormathFormath
    Member
    • Total Posts 1451

    The RSB e-book summary claims the need to be ‘quirky’ when you stray from their systematic approach, so here goes. I have just converted Topspeed, RPR and D.Mail Formcast ratings into odds for the 3.50 Wolverhampton today. The Betfair betting forecast shown in brackets represent fair odds with no advantage to anyone so in theory for value it is necessary to obtain longer odds:

    Wolverhampton 3.50
    1. –
    2. 3/1_0_6/1 (13/2 Betfair betting forecast)Thunderstruck
    3. –
    4. 0_13/2_13/2 (7/2) Star Links
    5. –
    6. –
    7. 0_9/2_13/2 (11/2)Elijah Pepper
    8. 7/2_13/2_13/2 (5/1)Viva Ronaldo
    9. 9/2_0_0 (25/1)Goal

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