Forum Replies Created
- Posts
This is not a very interesting way to support selections but it has logic and doesn’t usually get you into trouble financially. Anyway I have found it best to have a strategy rather than just betting in a haphazard manner.
More filters are used than indicated in the initial post of ‘fit, fast and fancied’.
These include a maximum field of 12 runners to avoid excessive overround increments and too many runners opposing selections.
At least 80% of the field must have a handicap rating (RPR will suffice) to avoid unrated runners upsetting the apple cart.
I don’t know if there is any interest in this kind of thing, but there you have it
.Bangor
3.25 Mackerye End, Saint John Henry
3.55 Bennys Well, Templebraden
4.25 Moss Street, Try It SometimeLeicster
2.20 Gentle George
2.50 Colms Dream
3.20 Foundry Square, Palypso De Creek
4.50 Brody Bleu, TodareistodoYesterday Malko Jack 9-2 lost and the others went off too short for me.
Ayr
3.20 What’s Up Woody, Chavoy
3.50 Kilkenny Kim
4.20 Titus Bolt, Boss Lady Tamure
4.50Little Glenshee, SilvertonImproved yesterday with a win 3-1, 2nd 7-2, 2 too short to bet and a non-runner.
Southwell
2.30 Russborough, Molio Jack
3.30 Spookydooky
4.30 Mr LandoThree PU yesterday so not an auspicious posting.
Kempton
1.25 Cloudy Bob
2.00 Bivouac, Beltor
2.35 Irish Saint, God’s OwnHaving followed UK racing on and off since 1951 I have come full circle and follow the old mantra of ‘fit, fast and fancied’. Nothing considered shorter than 2-1 and prepared to support up to three selections in a race where the odds are viable. That’s it really. Those under consideration today at Exeter are:-
2.50 Molo
3.50 Moving Waves
4.20 Todd, Galinas
5.20 AlborelloHad problems with internet access for a couple of days
.Plumpton
1.40 Cannon Fodder
Wolverhampton
3.30 Uncle BernieIf money talks, these were beingbacked on Befair at 10.30.
Newbury
Carrigmoorna Rock
Tara Road
Dushrembrandt
Hammersly Lake
Cole Harden
Smad Place
MonetaireIf money talks, these were beingbacked on Befair at 10.30.
Newbury
Carrigmoorna Rock
Tara Road
Dushrembrandt
Hammersly Lake
Cole Harden
Smad Place
MonetaireJust the Principal meeting Newbury today and will catch with the results table later.
12.20 Carrigmoorna Rock
12.50 Turn Over Sivola
1.50 Exitas
2.25 More Of That
3.00 The Druids Nephew, Djackadam, Annacotty, Smad Place (too many runners for the system so just for interest).
3.35 MonetaireJust a thought – if you don’t like my selections you could Google Totesport then tipping for Racing Post advice, select the one from each column tipped up the most. Keep to my basic guidelines for selection and you should be OK.
Newbury
1.30 Unique De Cotte
2.40 Sound Investment
Doncaster
2.30 Big Water (I am adding this to my selections for the day)
Wolverhampton
5.55 MajeydaNed Stark +2.5
Daneking -1, debit 2
Zara Zest -2, debit 5Newbury
2.05 Dell’ Arca
2.40 The Paparazi Kid
Wolverhampton
5.55 Badr Al BadoorThis is a detailed example of the staking plan for anyone interested:
Staking Plan (aiming to win at least 1 point from each bet).
Stake/Result/Won/Lost/Debit/Credit
1….Lost…..0…1…..2
2….Lost…..0…2…..5
3….Lost…..0…3…..9
4….W2/1…..8…0…..2
3….Lost…..0…3…..6
4….Lost…..0…4…..11
5….W3/1.,,.15…0….. 0
Total……..23….13……….10AIM TO WIN 1 POINT ON EACH BET.
Stakes are increased progressively by 1 point each bet until any debit is reduced to nought.
However, note that the staking progression should not exceed the existing debit by more than 1 point.
Any further losses are treated the same and added to the previous deficit. A winning bet has one point deducted from the amount won (profit required) before deducting the remainder from the debit column. The resultant figure is deducted from the debit column.
When the debit reduces to nought subtract the Loss from the Win and enter the profit in Credit column (in this illustration the profit is 10 points).I didn’t think anyone would notice me sneaking back in.
I might as well put some flesh on the bones whilst I am here for selection, odds and staking.
Selection being the critical element as without winners the rest doesn’t matter.
Class – Trying not to drop below class 3.
No race without wins in the form record.
Not more than around 12 runners to avoid excessive over=round margins.
Must be form rated backed up by time rating, not necessarily top-rated
in either case.Odds – No bet knowingly shorter than 6/4 as it is so difficult to cover losses regularly betting at shorter odds.
Staking – Level stakes if you prefer to keep it simple and minimise risk to the bank. I shall use the one given by VDW in the late 70’s with a bank of 200 points as it can be risky on a long losing run:
AIM TO WIN 1 POINT FOR EACH BET.
Commence with 1 point and increase by another point after each loser.
Add losses plus 1 point win aim to the debit after each loser.
On winning deduct amount won less 1 point aim from the debit.
Next bet must not be more than 1 point higher than any remaining debit.
Headings for the required betting book columns:STAKE/RESULT/WON/LOST/DEBIT/CREDIT/BANK
Came out ahead again yesterday, which is encouraging
, but it may not be as easy today owing to the forecast toght handicaps. Plenty of better class races to consider both in the afternoon and evening meetings.
After today I will probably bow out of this forum again and return to my former obscurity as there is relatively little in it for me as I am not on an ego trip. I was hoping to elicit some comments regarding my approach to selection and betting but nothing has transpired in the few posts I have made. Take no notice of my negative attitude – my better half says horse racing is stupid and she may be right, although she does go to bingo every week . Enough of that what about this afternoon?
Newbury
3.05 a very tight 3yo fillies hcap.
Cay Dancer £9 to clear £20 Hannon/Hughes being supported
Sea The Bloom £10 Stoute/moore being supported4.45 a tight 3yo+ hcap.
Burano £4 to clear £20
Border Legend £4
Insaany £6 Johnston/Hanagan – long travellerNottingham 3.30 a tight 4yo+ sprint hcap.
Doctor Parkes £4 to clear £20
Megalaeka £4That’s it folks! I may be back in a couple of years if I haven’t shuffled of this mortal curl, as Delboy said
.The two races did the biz yesterday despite my negative comments.
You would think racing would be moving up a gear heading towards the weekend but it’s not the case as the two better grade races are just class 3. Swerving the Liecester 3.00 as their feature race has just 3 runners (I bet the Clerk of the Course is hacked off about it ) with Arod a strong odds-on Fav and Spark Plug the alternative.Doncaster 7.00 a weight-for-age contest so no OR to give us a par indicating standard odds and so relying on the betting market for clues. Nothing over 7/1 leaves us nos 1, 5, 6, 7 to consider according to the current market. Quite surprised that Johnny Cavanagh – Hanagan up is off the radar at present., but it is early in the day.
Apostle 7.4 £4 to clear £20
King Torus 4.3 £7
Pipers Note 4.3 £7It more or less went as forecast yesterday, without my involvment owing to the short prices
, as ever ‘when chances are high odds are low’. There is another old saying ‘having more winners than losers means probably losing overall’ meaning that the returns for betting at short odds seldom cover losses long-term. You might level that accustaion at my approach but not so as I do generally experience more losing horses than winners. The difference is that I hope to get a high prcentage of winning bets, which is a rather different kettle of fish .Another day day another dollar but midweek stuff mainly for the benefit of official layers, owners, trainers and the rest of the ‘industry’. That indicates probably struggling to make it pay again today for us mug punters’.
Lingfield 3.40 and the feature race of the day, which is a disappointment as I am not a dirt track enthusiast, however beggars can’t be choosers.
Tenor 5.7 £5 to return £20 currently being supported
Knavery 3.6 £8 also currently being supportedSandown 7.40 and rather early for the market but here we go.
Georg Cinq 3.8 £8 to return £20
Billingsgate 3.15 £10
.
.
, but it may not be as easy today owing to the forecast toght handicaps. Plenty of better class races to consider both in the afternoon and evening meetings.
. Enough of that what about this afternoon?
) with Arod a strong odds-on Fav and Spark Plug the alternative.
, as ever ‘when chances are high odds are low’. There is another old saying ‘having more winners than losers means probably losing overall’ meaning that the returns for betting at short odds seldom cover losses long-term. You might level that accustaion at my approach but not so as I do generally experience more losing horses than winners. The difference is that I hope to get a high prcentage of winning bets, which is a rather different kettle of fish