[Formath]

Dave,<br>(Just some housekeeping) There was a typo in the blog address below my signature that has been corrected. Also you can get through to my blog via the link on my homepage. You will need to dig into the past entries to get back to the original concept.<br>(No problems with constructive criticism owing to the fact that I have been married for 50 years lol).

Artemis,<br>I agree wholeheartedly that in general you should not bet at short odds, however, as this is a ‘system’ it is necessary to keep to the rules. In this case that we back any selection at even money or longer. I should add that I am not a disciple of the VDW cult but just posted this thread for interest sake, not that the VDW methodology is a bad place to begin for a novice punter.

(Just to go off the thread topic) The price you should take depends on your view of a runners chance, or that of the pundit you follow. Considering a couple of races at Taunton today and calculating the odds from RPR opinion of fancied runners:<br>3.40 Norton Sapphire 13/2 (SP 7/4 3rd) , Pyleigh Lady 15/2 (SP 3/1 2nd) , Rockys Girl 18/1 (SP 11/1 Won) – according to the f/c it doesn’t look as though anything is worth backing<br>4.10 Bill’s Echo 6/1 (SP 7/2 4th) , She’s Our Native 6/1 (SP 7/1 7th) , Stan 8/1 (SP 3/1 3rd) – the absence of Maljimar has thrown the f/c into disarray so I am not sure where we are, perhaps She’s Our Native might make the RPR odds.<br>In comparison for the same race Adrian Massey’s odds calculated form the race ratings are :<br>4.10 Bill’s Echo 10/1, She’s Our Native 9/2, Stan 10/1 – so in the case of pundits identify one that you respect and stick with them. His top selection in this race is Wild Power 9/2 (SP 10/1 9th).

(Edited by Formath at 2:01 pm on Jan. 30, 2007)<br>

(Edited by Formath at 5:41 pm on Jan. 30, 2007)

[Formath]

4.00 Southwell

Qadar (13/8) – up 3lbs, Won 1st of 10 +shd, strong run final furlong to lead. Has a good chance and headgear worked well last time. Stake 1 point lost, due 2, bank 141.37<br>Waterside (5/4 Won) – up 7lbs, 2nd of 9 -.75 of a  length, ridden, kept on under pressure. Has a bit to find at the weights (same owner as Qadar so an eye on the market could be in order – just shows it’s not only track form that matters lol).<br>Bahamian Pirate (9/1) – up 10lbs, 5t of 9, stayed on not reach leaders. Claim at the weight but not an AW runner IMO.<br>

(Edited by Formath at 5:32 pm on Jan. 30, 2007)

[Formath]

Dave, Artemis,<br>I would not wish to get into a debate regarding ‘value’ as I came to terms with it long ago in regard to myself.<br>The conclusion was that ‘value’ is down to the capability of the individual in that after checking your strike-rate percentage you should only wager at fractional odds that are longer i.e., if your strike-rate is 25% then the shortest acceptable odds are 100-30. It is necessary to decide how far to check back as looking at my strike-rate percentage over the past 50 years to come up with odds to my advantage would be ridiculous. Sufficient to say nowadays I look back at the strike-rate percentage for my past 10 bets, but it could be 20 or 30 it depends on whether you be a lot or a little really.

With the VDW system here I am just following the rules. I should add that with the proposed staking plan a 45% strike-rate at Even money achieves the aim, so a couple at longer odds usually makes it well in (VDW may have dutched them to the same plan to achieve his claim of 80/90% winning bets, but that’s another story).

You should read my blog.

(Edited by Formath at 2:19 pm on Jan. 29, 2007)

[Formath]

Lingfield 4.20 Jan 29

Love Dubai (Evens Won) – up 1lb, Won 1st of 8 +1 length, led 1f out, stayed on. 2 wins at 1 mile+ at Wol, should go well. Stake 1 point + 1pt, due 0, bank +142.37<br>Daylami Dreams (11/4) – same weight, Won 1st of 7 +2 lengths, soon led, in command, ran on well, comfortably. Won C&D.<br>

(Edited by Formath at 5:50 pm on Jan. 29, 2007)

[Formath]

Artemis,<br>I am just attempting to narrow the field to 2/3 probables and considering their recent form, the selection being top of the list.

Wolverhampton 1.25<br>Grange Lili (6/1 Won) – down 2lbs, Won 1st of 10 +neck, headway, ran on to lead. Best effort over C&D should go well. Stake 5 points +30pts, due 0, bank 141.37 points.<br>Dress To Impress (4/5 2nd) – same weight, 3rd of 6 -2.5 lengths, headed, no extra. Being tried in cheekpieces.<br>Billy Ruffian – 3rd of 6 -1 length, ridden, stayed on. Improved on last 2 outings here and can be considered.

(Edited by Formath at 1:43 pm on Jan. 28, 2007)

[Formath]

Cheltenham 2.10

Black Jack Ketchum (4/7) – up 1lb, Won 1st of 5 +3 lengths, jumped into lead, soon in command, easily. High class and a strong chance. Odds-on SP no bet<br>Inglis Drever (9/2 2nd) – same weight, Won 1st of 5 +neck, driven, ran on strongly, held on well. Injured tendon was a setback and on comeback trail, needs a test of stamina.<br>Flight Leader (7/1 3rd) – down 7lbs, 4th of 9 -3.5 lengths, mistake, rallied, kept on. Top stayer with a tough task here.

Cheltenham 2.45

Our Vic ( 2/1 2nd) – same weight, Won 1st of 10 +7 lengths, shaken up, clear, comfortably. Leading chance but not totally confident as can be in and out. Stake 4 points lost, due 14, bank 111.37 points.<br>Exotic Dancer (6/1 Won) – down 4lbs, 2nd of 9 -8 lengths, went 2nd, blundered, no chance after. Stamina is the doubt here?<br>Halcon Generelardais (7/2 3rd) – up 3lbs, Won 1st of 18 +4 lengths, ridden to lead, driven out. has to inprove at this level to make it here.

(Edited by Formath at 3:14 pm on Jan. 27, 2007)<br>

(Edited by Formath at 3:16 pm on Jan. 27, 2007)

[Formath]

Hereford 3.50

Alphabetical (15/2 Lost)  – same weight, Won 1st of 11 +2.5 lengths, in command, went clear, kept on well. Won 1st time in cheekpieces and should go well. Stake 3 points lost, due 9, bank 115.37<br>Maletton (Evens 2nd)  – up 16lbs? Won 1st of 11 +.75 length, prominent, ridden, all out. Hard to beat if form holds up but 4th race in 12 days and weight carried is a concern?

<br>

(Edited by Formath at 5:40 pm on Jan. 26, 2007)

[Formath]

If it is any help this is what Nick Mordin in his book, ‘Betting for a Living’ circa 1992 says about the calculation’:<br>"….. this can be seen from the standard straight forecast offered by most bookies on big races, which operates in a similar way to the Computerised version. In this bet, 1 point is added to the price of the second horse before the odds of the first two are multiplied."

[Formath]

Warwick 2.10<br>Alfasonic (7/2 Lost) – up 2lbs, Won 1st of 13 +5 lengths, led, ridden, stayed on well. Lightly raced in form horse that goes on the ground. Stake 2 points lost, due 5, bank 118.37<br>Desert Tommy (7/1) – up 13lbs? 2nd of 9 -4 lengths, ridden, held, no extra. Could be thereabouts if hard race last time has not taken its toll.<br>Longueville Manor (7/1 3rd) – down 13lbs, 4th of 8 -30 lengths, headway, weakened after 3 out. 7 seconds from 15 starts indicates caution. Not at best last time and headgear left off.

Considered the Fontwell 2.50 as well and came up with Caribou – most experienced as a chaser but mistake, headed, soon beaten last time caused me to delete it.

(Edited by Formath at 3:13 pm on Jan. 25, 2007)

[Formath]

Thank you for the interest shown. I’m loooking at class, consistency balanced with a couple of ratings. <br>Huntingdon 2.00<br>Another Promise (8/11 Won) – down 5lbs, Won 1st of 9 +9 lengths, led, drew clear, readily. Improver but shorter D on sharper track this time poses a question? No bet at odds-on SP, but you could have had the straight forecast at £2.05.<br>Royal Shakespeare (Non-runner) – up 8lbs, Won 1st of 6 +10 lengths, led, mistake, driven clear. Soft ground would be against chance.<br>Rasharrow (6/5 2nd) – down 4lbs, 4th of 6 -13.5 lengths, mistake, plugged on. Jumping has to improve from last outing.

Huntingdon 3.00<br>Dream Alliance (13/8 Lost) – down 2lbs, 2nd of 6 -12 lengths, hit 2 out, soon headed, beaten. Chance to make amends here after failing on heavy. Stake 1 point lost, due 2, bank 120.37 points.Moncadou (5/4 Lost) – same weight, 2nd of 4 -1.5 lengths, kept on but not pace of winner. Has the class but not sure about the turn of foot.

(Edited by Formath at 2:33 pm on Jan. 24, 2007)<br>

(Edited by Formath at 3:20 pm on Jan. 24, 2007)

[Formath]

From a small sample it appears that Wolverhampton produces the best figures for speed horses at the track:

1.40 Desi<br>2.10 Haydock Express<br>2.40 Market Watcher<br>3.10 Rowe Park<br>3.40 Efistorm<br>4.10 Fantasy Dreamer

[Formath]

Last and behind time, but hopefully not least. Kempton from those best on time at the track:

1.05 Parlachy<br>1.35 Ginger Pop<br>2.05 Earl Kraul<br>2.35 Jomus<br>3.05 State Dilemma<br>3.45 Bobby Rose<br>4.15 Simplified<br>4.45 Speed Winner

[Formath]

I struggled with Warwick today checking overall form, recent form and the probable market and in fact failed to come up with anything in several races:

12.50 Mount Benger, Bauhaus, Star Double<br>2.30 Labelthou<br>3.00 Madison Du Berlais<br>3.30 D’Argent, Mon Mome<br><br>I thought I would have a second bite of the cherry today and checked these just by past speed on the track at Wolverhampton:

3.45 Milk And Sultana<br>4.20 Charlotte Grey<br>4.50 Oakbridge<br>5.20 Norwegian<br>5.50 TAJJREE<br>6.20 Diktatorship

(Edited by Formath at 1:33 pm on Jan. 13, 2007)<br>

(Edited by Formath at 1:35 pm on Jan. 13, 2007)

[Formath]

Plodding on with selections by overall form, recentform and the probable market and stuck with my ‘fair’ prices:

Kelso <br>1.10 Pay Attention 4/7<br>1.40 Crocodile Dundee 21/20<br>2.10 Mr Preacher Man 6/1<br>2.40 Ryminster 100/30, Woodview 11/2<br>3.10 Endless Power 4/1<br>3.40 Insurgent 4/1

[Formath]

Had some luck already as I nearly posted Catterick selections last night. Changing tack today from looking at hotshots to a cursory assessment by overall form, recent form and the possible market. The odds shown are ‘fair’ prices opposite the form IMO:

Hereford<br>1.30 Joacci 8/13<br>2.00 Buena Vista Evens<br>2.30 Treasury Council 7/2, Hill Forts Timmy 9/1<br>3.00 Schuh Shine 11/8<br>3.30 Thieves’ Glen 8/1

[Formath]

Swallow Cottage,

Thanks for the kind remark yesterday, not that it was deserved at all. Nice to have the old ego massaged occasionally.<br>What about today at Wincanton? These would be acceptable odds for the hotshots there, not sure they are worth backing in isolation tho’:

1.10 Fredensburg 9/2<br>1.40 Raslan 11/10<br>2.10 Not For Diamonds 13/2<br>2.40 Opera De Coeur 5/6<br>3.10 Konigsbote 11/10<br>3.40 Copper Bay 8/13<br>4.10 Closed Shop 15/8

[Formath]

I hesitated before posting this list of hotshots for Sedgefield today, what with the heavy going and my prices being a bit off the wall, as I am in danger of being heaped with ridicule (or worse). Anyways, these are they although perhaps the races ought to be backed according to Dr Saartin?

1.05 Surricate ?<br>1.35 Gappersoneldotcom 7/2<br>2.05 Bright Eagle 85/40<br>2.35 Highland Games 7/1<br>3.05 Cinnamon Line 7/2<br>3.35 Cloudmor 4/1<br>

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