[Formath]

Second thoughts, if you want to go mad and burn your your money you could consider these Voodoo W possibles at Salisbury to my staking plan:

2.20 1. 2. (7/2won £6 = +£21 – £9 = +£11) 7.
2.50 2. (2/1won £10 = +£20 – £6 = +£14)5. 7.
3.25 3. 5. (7/4 no bet race) 6.
4.00 1. 3. 6.(13/8 no bet race)
4.30 3.8/1 £3)6. 5/1won £4 = +£20 – £3 = +£17)
5.05 1.(5/4 no bet race) 2. 5.
5.35 1.(10/3 £6) 2.9/2 £5) 7.(8/1 £3) (-£14)

The final result at SP £28 a return of over 53% on possible liability a fine return IMO

It’s the whisky talking

[Formath]

There is No Bet for me today as in the only UK mainland race of my choice the strong favourite looks set to go off at odds-on

Salisbury 4.00
3.Definightly 4.7 £6
6. Our Jonathon odds-on?
10. Arctic Jewel 14 £2

No point in looking for something that is not here so it’s back to the Father’s Day whisky -it’s a hard life

[Formath]

Site been down for me since my last post and I thought it was due to my usual ineptitude . Been mainly good results but one howler using this approach since the 13th.
A couple of caveats regarding the staking plan; No Bet in a race if any of the possible selections are not available at 2/1 or longer, or, if the total staking liability exceeds £20.
I found it difficult to choose a race today seeking a top class contest – swerving amateur riders, sprints, large fields, short odds. In the end I opted for the York 2.35 without a great deal of confidence as it looks pretty tight, with Daily Mail Formcast rating the field within 3lbs. More rain would confuse the issue even further IMO;

York 2.35 (note the odds will probably adjust and therefore the stake between now and the off time)

4. Hillview Boy 8/1 £3 (SP 8/1 lost £3)
9. Classic Colori 7/1 £3 (SP 11/2 lost £4)
11. Barren Brook 12/1 £2 (SP 8/1 lost £3)

Brought forward £13 – £10 lost today = +£3

[Formath]

Yes, it’s me back for the summer season, a couple of posts anyway. Forum sites seem to be suffering in general with the alternatives now available but I have a soft spot for TRF and would like to see it survive into the future.

Me, I am still plugging away with any method that exploits the betting market. Currently I support up to three form possibles in a race to clear £20 on the winning selection. Each runner having its own £500 bank.

My race today is the Haydock 3.50 the feature race on the card. I have shown the current odds available and stake, which may need to be adjusted for the actual bet nearer the off time:

4. Number Theory 5/1 £4 (shortened to SP 7/2 won £6 = +£21)
5. Ittirad 9/2 £5 (SP 4/1 3rd £5)
7. Mica Mika 5/1 £4 (SP 7/1 £3)

(A profit on the race of £13)

[Formath]

I don’t often comment these days but I do look in if only to see that Bill (billion) is not getting out of hand. Myself I am more interested in the odds factor and don’t mind how I arrive at my selections so long as they are successful. Keeping it simple to reduce the work necessary I usually employ a modified version of Clive Holt’s Fine Form Mater Formula and then check the Betfair odds. Taking these two races today I wouldn’t consider the Musselburgh 4.25 4yo+ handicap at this stage of the Flat and the Carlisle 2.50 novice chase the odds are too short.

Mus 4.25 1. Cabal 5/2, 2. Prohibition 11/4
Car 2.50 1. Rich Lord 10/11, 2. Degas Art 7/4

[Formath]

Sandown 4.40 a class 3 5yo+ hcap chase over 24.5f on good. A tricky, testing track so weight has to be high for consideration given the D, No’s 11,12, 14 look to have an advantage. The current market indicates the wiiner to come from No’s 10, 5, 14, 4, 9. None have very recent form but in the past month Dont Tell Sailor, Inga Bird have the edge and consistency. looks fairly tight for theses seasoned campaigners so a bet might be 10 with 13, 14 as savers or coupled odds the last two.

(I have listed my ‘form’ ratings and my ‘fair’ odds calculated from converting them to prices)

1. 4 66/1 wt?
2. non-runner
3. 7 15/1 D?
4. 11 7/1 Mid Div And Creep, mare v males?
5. 12 6/1 Moleskin D?
6. non runner
7. non-runner
8. ? (rated 0)wt?
9. 7 15/1
10. 13 11/2 Dont Tell Sailor
11. 8 12/1
12. 5 33/1 wt?
13. 13 11/2 Reblis
14. 13 11/2 Inga Bird

[Formath]

Sandown (trainers in my order of merit)
1.50 Egypt Mill Spirit, My Mate Vinnie
2.25 Song Sung Blue
3.00 Top Of The Range, Keep Kicking
3.35 Toubab, Falcon Island
4.10 Sentimentaljourney, Andreo Bambaleo, Clowance House
4.40 Court By Surprise, Ballyvesey
5.10 Sky Watch, Sleepy, Le Bec

[Formath]

Lingfield 3.50 a class 4 hcap chase over 24f on soft. Prices shown are my ‘form’ ratings converted to ‘fair’ odds.

1. non-runner
2. 5/1 Time To Think, mare v males? weight? G?
3. 14/1 D?
4. 50/1
5. 22/1
6. ? (rated 0)(Moore top track trainer)
7. 22/1 D? G?
8. 11/4 Run To Fly (Bowen top on infineform)
9. 7/4 Tarquinius
10. 50/1 mare v males?

Just my opinion: Current market indicates one of No’s 9, 2, 8, 3 to win. 3 miles over 18 easy fences on soft where a critical factor may be weight and those favoured IMO are No’s 6 – 10. Tarquinius looks OK but has PU 3 of last 4 so needs the weight drop and 10lb claimer and has to act on the course. Run To Fly has good form but is lower class than most of the others.

[Formath]

Superman,
I seldom do back fitting – but since you ask I went thro’ the card on the first day a couple of seasons ago, when a guy emailed me and said I must be the best tipster in the UK but I reckon he could have been talking thro’ his pocket . It was so simple too, all I did was to list the top-rated SF from the first 5 in the betting forecast in non-hcaps and the runner with the biggest weight-drop from last time out from the first 6 in hcaps.
My best ever tip was a horse named Verasi at Uttoxeter a couple of seasons ago that went in at 66/1 – I thought of stopping then whilst I was ahead . It earned me some brownie points as I gave it to a mate who was a steward there at the time and he passed it to the Clerk of the Scales and Thommo who was commentating on the day.

Huntingdon (by trainer/and or form)
2.00 Spoil Me, Dynamic Idol, Wily Fox
2.30 Pingaro De La Vire, Ballyoliver, Stormhoek
3.00 Owen Glendower, Qaspal
3.30 Sydney Paget, All The Aces, Nagpur
4.00 Brave Alliance, Night Rose, Emily’s Princess
4.30 Keeverfield, L’Oudon, Point Proven
5.00 Ali Baba, Bobbie Magern, Old Magic

[Formath]

Wherever I divert to I always come back to Morton Coles’s (good old Mort ) mantra ‘the only thing that really matters is the odds.’ Now Mort only considered speed to arrive at his odds but I prefer to employ eight filters that are rated and converted to ‘form’ prices. Take the Ludlow 3.10 not a fantastic contest where the current market indicates the probable from No’s 7, 2, 6. (Lawrence Taylor goes 7, 2, 6 also):

Ludlow 3.10 (the odds shown are from my converted form ratings and so are independent of the market)

1. 25/1
2. 5/1 Akarshan (Williams top track trainer)
3. 12/1
4. 80/1
5. 16/1 D?
6. 13/2 Roc De Guye
7. 3/1 Esteem G?
8. 10/1
9. 12/1
10. 14/1

Just my opinion: Esteem looks well in compared to Akarshan but they look to be overlays, so my wager would be Roc De Guye each-way.

In comparison converting the hcap ratings to odds:

RPR goes – Thunder Child 5/1, Akarshan 6/1, Esteem 11/2, Meneur 11/2
D.Mail Formcast goes – Thunder Child 4/1, Esteem 5/1, Meneur 5/1, Akarshan 11/2

In the end it’s all just opinion until the race is run

[Formath]

Bill,
If I am still around during Cheltenham I agree that that Irish trainers ought to be taken into account – but you never know as I reach 76 next Monday (hopefully)

Doncaster (trainers listed in order of merit)

1.55 Ardlui, Black Pond, Kian’s Delight
2.25 Master Fiddle, The Cockney Mackem, Quentin Collonges
3.00 The Weatherman, Oscar Nominee, Presenting Ace
3.30 Forzy Origni, Faasel, Nikola
4.05 Storm Survivor, Patsy Finnegan, Decoy
4.40 Rathcor, Lorikarad, Plenty Of Chat
5.10 Ballyalton, Kayserberg

[Formath]

Better yesterday and I have refined it further today where those supported by infineform are listed in upper case:
Taunton
2.00 Dualla Lord, Gordano Bruno, URBAIN DE SIVOLA
2.30 Cosway Spirit, Not So Prudent
3.05 Wosayu, ALLDUNNANDUSTED
3.40 Edgardo Sol, Devil To Pay, Higgy’s Ragazzo
4.15 GENSTONE TRAIL, Capdalight, Clever Dick
4.45 TEMPLER, Divine Intavention
5.20 Unex Degas Foggy’s Wall, The Mumper, WHACKO

[Formath]

Just listing the top-rated trainer for each race the results look pretty average putting it politely, however what difference does coupling a few for each race make?

Carlisle
2.00 Tiger Maguire, Big Occasion
2.30 Streamtown, Brixen
3.05 Quinte De Chatelaite, Dusky Bob, John Forbes
3.40 Shaking Hands, My Boy Paddy
4.10 Take Over Sivola, El Maintenant
4.45 Nowurhurlin, Diamond D’Amour

[Formath]

Market Rasen,

1.40 Rulin
2.10 Pampelonne
2.40 Dorabelle
3.15 State Benefit
3.50 Accordintolawrence
4.20 Whiskey Ridge
4.50 Twm Sion Cati

3.15 (not known fast horses but odds shown by converting Topspeed ratings to fair prices)

1. 7/2
2. 250/1
3. 3/1 State Benefit (Henderson/Tinkler rated top)
4. 11/2
5. 18/1
6. 3/1

Just my opinion: By current betting market the probable winner to come from No’s 1, 3, 6. The only trainer considered was Henderson, otherwise by form it is Mic’s Delight.

[Formath]

Ascot (by trainer)
1.15 Keys
1.50 Silviaco Conti
2.25 The Minack
3.00 Kauto Stone
3.35 Smad Place
4.10 Balder Success
4.45 RiverMaigue

3.00 (Odds listed are Topspeed ratings converted to fair prices)

1. 5/1
2. 11/2 I’msingingtheblues (Pipe/Scudamore)
3. 13/1 Kauto Stone (Nicholls /Walsh rated top)
4. 9/1
5. 4/1 Medermit (King/Thornton rated 2nd)
6. 4/1 Riverside Theatre (Henderson/Geraghty rated 4th)
7. 9/1
8. 200/1

Just my opinion: according to the current betting market it is probable that the winner will come from No’s 6, 3, 5. As Medermit is the only overlay bet at present I would have to go with that each-way. Gauvain of course is another possibility. The reason Henderson is pulled back in my ratings is just time off track for Riverside Theatre alltho’ it is the proven fastest runner, also it will be an underlay bet so not on for me.

[Formath]

A plethora, a veritable cornucopia of top yards out today so much so I find myself overwhelmed. Tis is my order of merit at Newbury:

12.10 Holdfast, Sprinter Sacre, French Opera
12.40 Tidal bay, Long Run, What A Friend
1.15 Darlan, Raya Star, Empire Levant
1.50 All The Aces, Montbazon, Vulcanite
2.25 Deireadh, Pavillion Bleu, Buena Vista
2.55 Cedre Bleu, Our Mick, Mossley
3.30 Vrai Vert, Gevrey Chambertin, Shutthefrontdoor

1.15 I find hcap hurdle races so difficult to assess I resorted to Van der Wheil and came up with Zarkander 4*, Soldatino 3*, Raya Star 2*.

[Formath]

Superman,

Throwing in the towel with Cheltenham on the horizon – no way Pedro I am just closing this thread as I can’t just write for my own satisfaction. I still believe the most critical factor for the punter is strike-rate and odds. Look at Kelso today. Winners at 4/6, 5/4, 2/7, 5/4 who go make a go of that?

I will probably pop up elsewhere on the boards with trainers as I usually concentrate on the top flight for Cheltenham – even today it was Henderson x 3 and McCain.

au revoir

[Author]

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