Trainers based in England, recent form and guidline prices

[Formath]

I do like to follow trainers at the Cheltenham Festival so I thought I might try and get my hand in with the England based trainers first – more a systematic approach thana strict system.

Leicester
2.30 Crystal Prince, Carbinier, Brimham Boy
5.05 Rivermouth, Kilvergan Boy

4.35 (odds shown are RPR converted to guidleline fair prices)
1. 9/2 Frontier Spirit (T-Davies/S T-Davies rated 3rd)
2. 40/1
3. 11/4 Prince Of Pirates (Henderson/McCoy top-rated)
4. 15/2 Flaming Charlie (King/Thornton rated 2nd)
5. 6/1 Brackloon High (=3rd rated on recent form)
6. non-runner
7. 15/2 Lexicon Lad (George/Brennan rated 4th)
8. 20/1
9. 10/1
10. non-runner

Just my opinion: On current betting there appears to be confidence in the Henderson 1st string which is good for the yard but as an underlay not for us punters. On balance Flaming Charlie each-way woukld be my selection for an overlay bet.

[Formath]

A plethora, a veritable cornucopia of top yards out today so much so I find myself overwhelmed. Tis is my order of merit at Newbury:

12.10 Holdfast, Sprinter Sacre, French Opera
12.40 Tidal bay, Long Run, What A Friend
1.15 Darlan, Raya Star, Empire Levant
1.50 All The Aces, Montbazon, Vulcanite
2.25 Deireadh, Pavillion Bleu, Buena Vista
2.55 Cedre Bleu, Our Mick, Mossley
3.30 Vrai Vert, Gevrey Chambertin, Shutthefrontdoor

1.15 I find hcap hurdle races so difficult to assess I resorted to Van der Wheil and came up with Zarkander 4*, Soldatino 3*, Raya Star 2*.

[Formath]

Ascot (by trainer)
1.15 Keys
1.50 Silviaco Conti
2.25 The Minack
3.00 Kauto Stone
3.35 Smad Place
4.10 Balder Success
4.45 RiverMaigue

3.00 (Odds listed are Topspeed ratings converted to fair prices)

1. 5/1
2. 11/2 I’msingingtheblues (Pipe/Scudamore)
3. 13/1 Kauto Stone (Nicholls /Walsh rated top)
4. 9/1
5. 4/1 Medermit (King/Thornton rated 2nd)
6. 4/1 Riverside Theatre (Henderson/Geraghty rated 4th)
7. 9/1
8. 200/1

Just my opinion: according to the current betting market it is probable that the winner will come from No’s 6, 3, 5. As Medermit is the only overlay bet at present I would have to go with that each-way. Gauvain of course is another possibility. The reason Henderson is pulled back in my ratings is just time off track for Riverside Theatre alltho’ it is the proven fastest runner, also it will be an underlay bet so not on for me.

[Formath]

Market Rasen,

1.40 Rulin
2.10 Pampelonne
2.40 Dorabelle
3.15 State Benefit
3.50 Accordintolawrence
4.20 Whiskey Ridge
4.50 Twm Sion Cati

3.15 (not known fast horses but odds shown by converting Topspeed ratings to fair prices)

1. 7/2
2. 250/1
3. 3/1 State Benefit (Henderson/Tinkler rated top)
4. 11/2
5. 18/1
6. 3/1

Just my opinion: By current betting market the probable winner to come from No’s 1, 3, 6. The only trainer considered was Henderson, otherwise by form it is Mic’s Delight.

[Formath]

Just listing the top-rated trainer for each race the results look pretty average putting it politely, however what difference does coupling a few for each race make?

Carlisle
2.00 Tiger Maguire, Big Occasion
2.30 Streamtown, Brixen
3.05 Quinte De Chatelaite, Dusky Bob, John Forbes
3.40 Shaking Hands, My Boy Paddy
4.10 Take Over Sivola, El Maintenant
4.45 Nowurhurlin, Diamond D’Amour

[Formath]

Better yesterday and I have refined it further today where those supported by infineform are listed in upper case:
Taunton
2.00 Dualla Lord, Gordano Bruno, URBAIN DE SIVOLA
2.30 Cosway Spirit, Not So Prudent
3.05 Wosayu, ALLDUNNANDUSTED
3.40 Edgardo Sol, Devil To Pay, Higgy’s Ragazzo
4.15 GENSTONE TRAIL, Capdalight, Clever Dick
4.45 TEMPLER, Divine Intavention
5.20 Unex Degas Foggy’s Wall, The Mumper, WHACKO

[billion]

Dear

Formath

, far be it from me to make any suggestions to one older and wiser than I but by neglecting those damned Irish raiders might you just be missing a "festival" trick?

Billy's Outback Shack

[Formath]

Bill,
If I am still around during Cheltenham I agree that that Irish trainers ought to be taken into account – but you never know as I reach 76 next Monday (hopefully)

Doncaster (trainers listed in order of merit)

1.55 Ardlui, Black Pond, Kian’s Delight
2.25 Master Fiddle, The Cockney Mackem, Quentin Collonges
3.00 The Weatherman, Oscar Nominee, Presenting Ace
3.30 Forzy Origni, Faasel, Nikola
4.05 Storm Survivor, Patsy Finnegan, Decoy
4.40 Rathcor, Lorikarad, Plenty Of Chat
5.10 Ballyalton, Kayserberg

[Lone Wolf]

You must have racked up a winner or two in your time at these festivals. Does anything stand out ?

[billion]

Well then

Formath

, all I can say is: –

HAPPY BIRTHDAY on Monday.

Billy's Outback Shack

[Lone Wolf]

so that’s why you don’t do ante posts

[Formath]

Superman,
I seldom do back fitting – but since you ask I went thro’ the card on the first day a couple of seasons ago, when a guy emailed me and said I must be the best tipster in the UK but I reckon he could have been talking thro’ his pocket . It was so simple too, all I did was to list the top-rated SF from the first 5 in the betting forecast in non-hcaps and the runner with the biggest weight-drop from last time out from the first 6 in hcaps.
My best ever tip was a horse named Verasi at Uttoxeter a couple of seasons ago that went in at 66/1 – I thought of stopping then whilst I was ahead . It earned me some brownie points as I gave it to a mate who was a steward there at the time and he passed it to the Clerk of the Scales and Thommo who was commentating on the day.

Huntingdon (by trainer/and or form)
2.00 Spoil Me, Dynamic Idol, Wily Fox
2.30 Pingaro De La Vire, Ballyoliver, Stormhoek
3.00 Owen Glendower, Qaspal
3.30 Sydney Paget, All The Aces, Nagpur
4.00 Brave Alliance, Night Rose, Emily’s Princess
4.30 Keeverfield, L’Oudon, Point Proven
5.00 Ali Baba, Bobbie Magern, Old Magic

[Formath]

Sandown (trainers in my order of merit)
1.50 Egypt Mill Spirit, My Mate Vinnie
2.25 Song Sung Blue
3.00 Top Of The Range, Keep Kicking
3.35 Toubab, Falcon Island
4.10 Sentimentaljourney, Andreo Bambaleo, Clowance House
4.40 Court By Surprise, Ballyvesey
5.10 Sky Watch, Sleepy, Le Bec

[Lone Wolf]

If you’re reading, i hope you got a few winners pal. Having a bias towards British based trainers didn’t seem like such a bad idea after all !

[billion]

"A plethora of cornucopia"

The great man must have swallowed a dictionary and I almost died choking on my cornflakes as I re-read this thread from the start.

I must have missed it first time round being all over the place as I am of late.

Perhaps we should have a collection for the old chap’s 76th tomorrow and buy a Thesaurus.

Happy Birthday Old Friend.

Billy's Outback Shack

[Author]

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