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Dave Jay,
I agree with your opinion that VDW probably bet to coupled odds justifying his claim for 80-90% winning bets in a season.
Have Fun,
With regard to your query re VDW advising course class to be considered at some time in his letters. I can’t recall that and I have no way of checking as I have given all my Moss publication books away and all my copies of the SCHB. The only thing that I have found is a dog-eared photocopy of a VDW letter to sports forum around 1982:
"There is a good maxim in racing which says ‘never back a horse that has not won’.<br>This does not obviate the need to have a proper evaluation of any race and, unlike National Hunt, Flat racing is full of events catering for young two and three-year-old horses.<br>Many three-year-olds have never run as two-year-olds and until it is possible to get a full measure, as is the case with older horses, some means other than that previously shown is required for use in conjunction. I suggest the same rating method is used, but with such youngsters have as a further guide a means based on time."
He then goes on to detail at length a system fo using Split Second ratings to achieve this (if anyone is interested I can add it on).
(Edited by Formath at 3:03 pm on Feb. 17, 2007)
Class Tells,<br>This is the advice I believe VDW would have given you today, quoted from a sports forum letter May 24, 1979:
"If no choice emerges from methodical study, one of two things should become plain, the competition is too keen to justify a bet or the winner must be looked for among the outsiders. May I suggest the first alternative is the one to adopt (temperament)."
1.45 Ascot<br>Gungadu – (4/6 won) up 2lbs, won 1st of 5 +25 lengths, led, blundered, clear, easily. Plenty in hand and clearly the one to beat. Odds-on no bet<br>Jaunty Times (16/1) – same weight, won 1st of 4 +shd, slighly outpaced, rallied, ran on. On a hat-trick but tougher here.<br>Over The Creek (7/2) – up 2lbs, 2nd of 18 -2.5 lengths (penultimate race), chased, stayed on, snatched 2nd. Could be a threat at the weights.
3.45 Haydock<br>The Sawyer – (11/4) up 7lbs, won 1st of 11 +7 lengths, not fuent last, challenged, led, stayed on well, drew clear. No easy task at the weights. Stake 1 point lost, due 2, bank 175.32
Chief Dan George (9/1 won) – up 2lbs,won 1st of 7 +hd, keen, led, all out. Improving and can’t be ruled out.<br>Joacci (6/4) – down 4lbs, won 1st of 13 +6 lengths, made virtually all, went clear, easily. Should have no trouble holding his own.<br>Hills Of Arran (15/2) – down 1lb, 5th of 11 -11.5 lengths, stayed on , hit last, never got competetive. has yet to get head in front over jumps?<br>
(Edited by Formath at 4:27 pm on Feb. 17, 2007)
2.25 Fakenham<br>Iris Raptor – (11/4 won) up 13lbs? 7th of 9 -72 lengths, blundered, soon headed, weakened, tailed off. Plausibly handicapped. Has won with 11-4 and claimer takes 5lbs off. <br>Stake 9 points won = +24.75, due 21, bank 148.62<br> Mokum – (6/1 2nd) down 24lbs, 3rd of 10 -3.25 lengths, chased, jumped left, stayed on same pace. Not proven over the distance?<br>Schuh Shine (4/1 3rd) – up8lbs, won 1st of 9 +1.75 lengths, led, ridden, finished tired, all out. Handicapped to best here.<br>Just for interest the straight forecast paid £18.24<br>2.35 Kelso<br>Tarotino (11/4 won) – up 5lbs, won 1st of 5 +2.5 lengths, headway, ridden, led, ran on. Some concern about getting the distance. Stake 10 points won = +27.5, due 0, bank +176.32<br>Apollo Lady (11/4 2nd) – up 4lbs, won 1st of 17 +9 lengths, headway, challenged, left in lead, ran on. Step up in trip looks suitable.<br>Just for interest the straight forecast paid £10.56
<br>
(Edited by Formath at 4:24 pm on Feb. 16, 2007)
Class Tells,<br>If we could could find a method to calculate class accurately in a single figure I think we would be on to a winner. <br>I can’t answer for VDW except to say I am certain he would have taken into account the vastly improved, easily available racing information. He recognized the shortcomings of his £ Class calculation and I quote from a letter/article to SCHB sports forum dated May 29, 1980:
"A simple way to rate the field on ability is to rate is to relate the prize money won to the number of races won… For obvious reasons this is not foolproof , but at least it enables a better judgement to be made and usually it is unwise to stray from the top few…With minor modifications the method of rating can be applied to Flat racing, but I must again stress ratings are a guide and should be used in conjunction with other factors. This method does not evaluate the ability of any horse that has not won, but there are ways of doing so which should be used in conjunction."
Everybody struggles with class, they know what it is, where it can be found, but refining the information to a figure to be able to make sensible comparisons is the difficult bit.
(Edited by Formath at 12:28 pm on Feb. 16, 2007)
Class Tells,
It is a fact that I wrote the booklet you mentioned. I don’t have a copy now but I remember that there were some printers errors that were never corrected, to do with calculating fair odds from ratings was one.
far be it for me to advise anyone how to risk their capital but when I have a losing run I check the selection procedure to try and identify if there is anything that ought to be done differently, rather than increasing the number of bets. As an example take this thread where the problem seems to be forcing the issue, by having a couple of selections each day when there should really be just 2 or 3 each week.
3.10 Kelso<br>Numero Un De Solzen (2/1 3rd) – down 3lbs, won 1st of 5 +7 lengths, 5 lengths down, staying on no impression, when left in lead. Progressive and on handy mark for handicap debut. Stake 7 points lost, due 35, bank 131.87.<br>Mel In Blue (6/1) – up 19lbs? won 1st of 8 +2.5 lengths, headway, led, blundererd, ridden, stayed on. Not badly treated on previous form.<br>Ransboro – (11/2) up 25lbs? 4th of 5 -14 lengths, mistake, challenged, weakened. 6 time winner in Ireland and jockey booking of note.<br>Getinbutonlyjust (13/2 2nd) – down 20lbs, won 1st of 8 +8 lengths, led, left clear, tired, kept up to mark. Improving chaser said to need time between races.
3.50 Chepstow<br>Milan Deux Mille (7/2 3rd) – up 3lbs, won 1st of 8 +1.25 lengths, jumped badly left, headed, led, held on well. Up in class but left-hand track should suit. Stake 8 points lost, due 44, bank 123.87<br>Kalca Mome (10/1 2nd) – up 12lbs, 8th of 12 -23 lengths, blundered, struggling, kept on. Weight is the concern.<br>Nozic – (7/2 won) up 17lbs? 2nd of 7 -7lengths, blundered, headed, pressed winner, outpaced. Increased weight and jumping ability are concerns.
(Edited by Formath at 5:58 pm on Feb. 15, 2007)
Class Tells,<br>IMO weight carried has to be taken in context of the form of overall runners in a race as well as the individual weight carrying capabilty. I don’t have any research figures except that I go along with the view of Prof. Frank George from the late 70’s. He found that any NH runner carrying over 11st-3lbs was carrying a ‘burden’. The weight for the Flat is over 8st-7lbs.
Class Tells, <br>For me dealing with weight means any increase over 7lbs is questionable if a horse has not run well with the weight or heavier before. Over a stone poses a serious question.<br>Many punters disregard the effect of weight now but I don’t support that view.
Class Tells,<br>3.10 Leicester<br>Here is the VDW platform as I see it. On balance it is probably a race where VDW would have said, ‘the alarm bells should be ringing’ owing to the £ Class not matching up to the Consistency and Form. Looking at Postdata the trainer form is very poor.The headings for * are Race Cloth Number, £ Class, Consistency 1, Consistency 2, RPR, Formcast:
1-*0**** Nenuphar Collonges<br>2-*0**00<br>3-*00000<br>4-0*00**<br>5-****00 Zimbabwe<br>6-0*0000<br>7-0000*0<br>8-**000*<br>9-*0**** Nagam<br>10-00000
Nenuphar Collonges (9/2 2nd) – up 6lbs, won 1st of 7 +34 lengths (penultimate race), chased, ridden, left clear. Concern is confidence after fall that has had an affect before. Stake 5 points lost, due 20, bank144.87<br>Zimbabwe (11/2 won) – up 19lbs? 2nd of 11 -1.5 lengths, ridden, kept on one pace. Gets on well with jockey Harris but weight increase is a concern?<br>Nagam (15/2) – down 9lbs, 4th of 8 -9 lengths, mistake, ridden mistake, stayed on same pace. Weight in favour but jumping needs to improve and no wins at all?
3.30 Musselburgh<br>Folk Tune (5/4) – up 11lbs? 2nd of 15 -.5 of a length, led 2out, no extra finish. Improving and should be a leading contender. Stake 6 points lost, due 27, bank 138.87<br>Carrietau (8/1 2nd) – up 12lbs? 2nd of 12 -1.5 lengths, headway, ridden, headed, kept on same pace – Reliable sort with commendable record.<br>Impeccable Guest (15/2 3rd) – up 16lbs won 1st of 11 +3 lengths, ridden, 2 lengths down when left clear, kept on. Lucky win last time and this demands improvement.
(Edited by Formath at 1:54 pm on Feb. 14, 2007)<br>
(Edited by Formath at 5:41 pm on Feb. 14, 2007)
Class Tells,<br>I use RPR and Formcast because they are available. On Sunday when there is no Formcast I use Topspeed instead. I have used the Adrian Massey ‘old’ ratings in the past but not all meetings are available. Also I have compiled my own using the Pattern Form site data as the basis. Even the OR, which gave Bahamian Pirate today, but again many races don’t have ratings.<br>The most important thing I find is to stick with those that you like best and don’t keep changing over.
Class Tells, <br>As you realise I didn’t offer an opinion on the 3.50 Southwell, although I did consider the race. Even if i had arrived at a conclusion my summary would not have included Quiet Times because it had the next to worst consistency rating of the 8 runners.<br>I am not attempting to do anything clever with this VDW system except to follow the intial basic guidelines as I interpret them,"…for new readers some of the early signposts on the road to success given by VDW at this juncture:<br>1. Narrowing the field<br>2. Looking at horses that win a high percentage of races with regard to their form figures (not much joy there recently as my results show lol)<br>3. Studying the first 5 in the betting forecast of non-handicap races and the first 6 in handicaps.<br>4. Using two rating methods (IMO this means two methods of evaluating consistency and not rating figures).<br>5. AND perhaps most important of all, combining these points, ‘subject to other considerations’ ".
"To confirm what the figures say it is necessary to study the form of all concerned taking particular note of the class in which they ran, the courses they ran on, the pace and going of the respective races, distances won or beaten by and most important how they performed in the latter stages of each race."
"Taken step by step and starting with the principal meeting the agenda is:<br>1. Select the most valuable race on the card<br>2. Consider the next most valuable race<br>3. Select the most valuable race from other cards.<br>4. Rate entire field for ability (this is class by win prize money divided by number of wins).<br>5. Select the most consistent from the first 5 or 6 in the betting forecast.<br>6. Apply second rating method to entire field (IMO this is the second method of evaluating consistency as detailed several post ago on this thread, from a VDW letter Aug 25, 1979".
The above is my Basic Van der Wheil System, except that I do include 2 sets commercial ratings to confirm the consistency before checking the other considerations.
(Edited by Formath at 7:01 pm on Feb. 13, 2007)
3.20 Southwell<br>Red Contact (7/2) -down 4lbs, won 1st of 9 +5 lengths (penultimate race), ridden, driven, stayed on well. Poor last time but goes much better on fibresand. Stake 4 points lost, due 14, bank 149.87<br>Dichoh (13/2 won) – down 11lbs, 5th of 9 -1 length, effort, kepton, never able to challenge. Progressive but realtively unexposed.<br>Speed Dial Harry (6/1) – down 10lbs, 3rd of 7 -1 length, ridden, driven, stayed on. At least aneach-way chance.<br>
(Edited by Formath at 6:04 pm on Feb. 13, 2007)
Class Tells,<br>That’s not the book discussed with Carlisle.<br>The book is a free ebook provided by Racing Systems Builder for anyone aspiring to become a professional punter, written by Tim Drakeford and his partner.
If you would like a copy send me an email address on messenger and I will transfer a copy. In fact if anyone else is interested do the same to get it out of the way.
Carlisle,<br>If you send me an email address on the messenger service I will transfer a copy of the RSB book to you.
Class Tells,<br>This is how I arrive at the second consistency rating that I compile:<br>This is the 2nd part of a VDW letter/article published in SCHB Sports Forum August 23, 1979:
"Another of the many ways to reduce the field, which can be used in conjunction with the previous method I gave, is as follows. The combination of the 2 usually indicates the probables. Again I suggest the better class races but illustrate using a scrubber to show potential.<br>A star has been used to indicate selections at each stage. The previous method I gave isolates Secret Express, Easter Girl, The Old Fellow giving 4 out of the 16 with probability. Most people will be aware of the statistics regarding horses placed 1, 2, 3, 4 last time out and here a variation is used for the first stage of the mechanical procedure.<br>Stage 1. From the last 2 finishing places of each horse mark all those with form figures 1 to 4 (note as in the race illustrated none had a 2nd place so mark those with a 5th place).<br>Stage 2. Select in days, the 5 most recent runs. In this case 3, 7, 9, 10, 11 days. <br>Stage 3. Select from the above the 3 most consistent by adding together the last 3 finishing places of the respective horses. Reading through the form there can be little doubt that The Old Fellow represents a reasonable wager if you care to bet in scrubber races.
<br>Newmarket, Aug 4, Cobnut Selling Handicap 3yo, 16 runners.
<br>Stage1……………………Stage 2……3………….Ratings<br>766….Tucson……………….. 28<br>2R14*..Secret Express……..3*….7*……………..32…..84<br>58-0…..What A Treasure..110<br>305*….Easter Girl…………….9*..18………………29……84<br>0-74*…Laki lady……………..68<br>275*….Mohock………………..7*..14*2nd 15/2…35…..85<br>40-9…..Carol Seymour……..61<br>0-35*..Hosts Delight……….11*..18……………….28….89<br>0L0…….Sky Grove…………..61<br>044*…..Game Sheila…………7*…18………………29….89<br>093*….Baby Flo………………10*..32………………18….75<br>08L……Blue Paper……………64<br>781*…The Old Fellow………10*..16*W12/1……40…91<br>084*…Royal Inheritance……25….22…………….(40).(99)<br>064*…Desert Prince………….18…20..3rd.16/1…31…89<br>660…..The Mo………………….19
<br>It is interesting to speculate by what criterion weight of money could force Royal Inheritance to a 5/2 favourite from a forecast of 10/1. Ratings alone? If readers care to subject the next race on the card (won by Soaf) to the same 2 methods the point arises again. By what criterion could Another Signcentre be not only forecast favourite but actual 2/1 favourite? The Combination of both methods isolates Soaf, Dalkoku, Rubber Duck and Art Bidder. As will be noticed the first 3 places were filled from these 4."
3.15 Plumpton<br>The Local (4/1 3rd) – up 3lbs, 3rd of 10 -2 lengths, driven, headed, kept on gamely. record with McCoy up 41311. Stamina is the concern? Stake 3 points lost, due 9, bank 153.87<br>English Jim (7/2 2nd) – down 11lbs, 3rd of 13 -6 lengths, held up, chased, kept on same pace. Improver this season and could go well.
4.00 Wolverhampton<br>Just Bond (10/11 3rd) – down 7lbs, won 1st of 6 +shd, led, hung right, ran on. Solid chance at best trip. Odds-on no bet<br>Top Mark (4/1 2nd) – up 4lbs, won 1st of 8 +nk, carried right, held on well, all out. More to do with Just Bond on worse terms over further.
(Edited by Formath at 5:14 pm on Feb. 12, 2007)<br>
(Edited by Formath at 5:15 pm on Feb. 12, 2007)
4.10 Southwell<br>Arsad (6/4 2nd) – down 9lbs, won 1st of 8 +5 lengths, led, stayed on strongly, readily. Course record of 1, 2, 1 augers well.<br>Stake 2 points lost, due 5 pts, bank 156.87<br>Flame Creek (10/1) – up 5lbs, 5th of 6 -17.5 lengths, headway, ridden, weakened. C&D2 by wide margins indicates could run better today.<br>Share The Feeling (4/1 3rd) – down 6lbs, 2nd of 7 -.25 of a length, ridden, headed close home. Needs to take to the track surface.
(Edited by Formath at 6:16 pm on Feb. 11, 2007)
