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3.30 Hereford<br>Evelith Forrest (15/8 lost) – up 8lbs,2nd of 6 -3 lengths, shaken up, no impression, ridden ,one-paced. Hcap OK and D no problem. Stake 5pts lost, due 20, bank 169.37
Negus De Beaumont (9/2 won) – up 3lbs, prominent, pushed aong, lost place. A hard ride dropped in class.<br>Jug Of Punch (8/1) – up 21lbs? 4th of 10 -3 lengths, chased, every chance, stayed on same pace. Vulnerable here.
(Edited by Formath at 6:40 pm on Feb. 26, 2007)
Hereford<br>3.40 Officier De Reserve (1/3 won) – no bet at odds shorter than 1/2 on<br>4.40 Fanmail (11/8 lost) – stake 2pts lost, due 5, bank 123.7
(Edited by Formath at 6:38 pm on Feb. 26, 2007)
You Guys! You floor me with your techniques, spread-sheets and I don’t know what-all lol. So much so that I hesitate to post in case I get shot down in flames. Let me explain…
I am 71 in 2 days time, had surgery for cancer, a stroke last summer, got arthritis bad, wear specs and a hearing aid, walk with a stick, and my teeth are falling out. You may not believe this but my wife has a programme of work set out for me – decorating and gardening, as soon as the weather improves that would kill an elephant. The only thing that I have left that is in any way near working order is may brain, so you have got to catch me whilst I am still warm.
I have been following UK horse racing since 1951, which means I have had time to pursue every avenue of approach to selecting winners that there is, including compiling ratings. In the end I came to the conclusion that you are just as well off using any commercial ratings that you respect. The trick is to be able to price them up and bet them at your own price as the only thing that matters in the end is the odds.
Let’s take the first race on Dave’s list today 13.30 Wolverhampton. Using the Pattern Form site data I rated the 4 X 6 month columns 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1 in descending order and totted them up to get a set of ratings. Then I valued all those down to 10/1 as possible bets (I didn’t bet in this race) but would have bet all those that went off better than my price, but at my odds, to return 100pts including stake:
13.30 Wolverhampton<br>1 – 6<br>2 – 9 = 9/1 stake 10pts. SP 9/1 no bet<br>3 – 0<br>4 – 8<br>5 – 6<br>6 – 16 = 11/4 stake 26pts. SP 9/1 WON = 260pts return<br>7 – 16 = 11/4 stake 26pts. SP 20/1 lost<br>8 – 7<br>9 – 10 = 7/1 stake 12pts. SP 10/1 lost<br>10 – 0<br>11 – 3
Result 260pts return – 64 pts staked = +196pts
The point I am trying to make is why do all the hard work when it has been done for you? What you have to do is learn to price ratings up and stake them at your prices when they are viable.
Let’s take RPR in the same race and see how we would have gone on:
1 – 91 = 15/2. SP7/1 no bet<br>2 – 91 = 15/2. SP 13/2 no bet<br>3 – 87 = <br>4 – 88 = 10/1. SP 6/1 no bet<br>5 – 87<br>6 – 90 = 8/1 stake 11pts. SP9/1 won return 110pts<br>7 – 85<br>8 – 91 = 15/2. SP 6/1 no bet<br>9 – 89 = 9/1. SP8/1 no bet<br>10 – 89 = 9/1 stake 10pts. SP 33/1 lost<br>11 – 79
Result 110pts – 21pts stake = +79pts
I am not trying to be clever (although my wife does tell me I am a B-knowall lol) just trying to point you in the right way in the light of my long experience.<br>
(Edited by Formath at 8:08 pm on Feb. 25, 2007)
3.50 Exeter<br>Zimbabwe (15/8 lost) – up 8lbs, won 1st of 10 +nk, led, headed, led last, driven out. Pressure on at this level. Stake 4 points lost, due 14, bank 174.37<br>Howrwenow (9/4 won) – down 1lb, won 1st of 8 +16 lengths, always going well, led, clear, easily. Sound jumper and interesting hcap newcomer.<br>Charlies Future (3/1 2nd) – same weight, 2nd of 10 -7 lengths (penultimate race), led, prominent, ridden, chased, no impression. Could be give another chance.
(Edited by Formath at 3:20 pm on Feb. 25, 2007)<br>
(Edited by Formath at 4:26 pm on Feb. 25, 2007)
Exeter<br>2.20 Mark The Book – (4/7 won), stake 1 point +.57, so 1.57 carried forward to next bet)
4.20 Glasker Mill  (6/5 lost) – stake 1.5 lost, due 2, bank 125.7
(Edited by Formath at 4:34 pm on Feb. 25, 2007)
Kempton<br>3.45 Parrain (11/10 lost) – Stake 1 point lost , due 2, bank 119<br>5.15 Evelith Echo (7/2 won) – Stake 2 points won, due 0, bank 126
(Edited by Formath at 12:03 pm on Feb. 25, 2007)
2.35 Kempton<br>Good Spirit (7/2 2nd) – down 1lb, won 1st of 7 +6 lengths, made all, mistake, clear, easily. A striking win but has to get this trip. Stake 2 points lost, due 5, bank 181.87<br>Ursis (9/2 3rd) – up 7lbs, won 1st of 4 chased +.75 of a length, led, hit 2 out, driven out. Trip may not suit.<br>Natal (5/2 won) – down 2lbs, 4th of 5 -14 lengths, not fluent, ridden, beaten, blundered last. Not proven on forecast going.
Kempton 3.10<br>Lucifer Bleu (15/8 lost) – down 12lbs, won 1st of 8 +11 lengths, made all, clear, mistake, eased considerably. If OK at the D should be hard to beat. Stake 3 points lost, due 9, bank 178.87<br>Lacdoudal (8/1 3rd) – same weight, 4th of 7 -27 lengths, headway, ridden, weakened. has chance if staying trip.<br>Limerick Bay (5/1) – down 2lbs, won 1st of 5 +6 lengths, mistakes, led, clear, stayed on well. Capable of a bold show.<br>Simon (11/2 won) – up 3lbs, won 1st of 10 +9 lengths, headway, blundered, stayed on well. More required here.
(Edited by Formath at 4:38 pm on Feb. 24, 2007)
3.30 Warwick<br>Leading Contender (Evens lost) – up 5lbs, 2nd of 14 -1.5 lengths, led, ridden, kept on same pace. Consistent and every chance on form. Stake 1 point lost, due 2, bank 183.84<br>Anglicisme (11/2) – up 2lbs, 5th of 10 -28 lengths, headway, ridden, weakened. Has some chance if staying the trip.<br>Supreme Cara (6/1 won) – same weight, 3rd of 7 -38 lengths, ridden, no chance, poor 3rd. Being tried over longer.
<br>
(Edited by Formath at 5:29 pm on Feb. 23, 2007)
charv<br>IMO it is not possible to win 5% of your bank every day.<br>You have to allow for the inevitable losing runs in your pattern of results.<br>You should certainly be systematic and by that I mean having a disciplined, structured approach, but whether you should operate to a system with rigid rules is another matter.<br>Form, that is performance on the racecourse, should be the basis of your selection criteria, although following form alone does not guarantee success.<br>The question you pose is so difficult that it is almost impossible to give an adequate response in few sentences.<br>If you wish to provide an email address on Messenger on this site I will send you the Racing Systems Builder free ebook on ‘How to Become a Professional Gambler’ and then you will see the difficulties involved.
3.00 Huntingdon<br>Chief Yeoman (6/5 won) – up 3lbs, won 1st of 4 +15 lengths, chased, led, clear, canter. Promising and a bold bid likely.<br>Stake 2 points = +2.4, due 0, bank 184.84<br>Echo Point (15/8 3rd) – down 2lbs, won 1st of 13 +22 lengths (penultimate race), made all, drew clear, easily. Useful hurdler and could need catching.<br>Garde Champetre (5/1 2nd) – same weight, 2nd of 5 -6 lengths, chased, effort, same pace. Hesitant chaser and trip may not suit.<br>Just for interest the straight forecast paid £7.18<br>
(Edited by Formath at 4:30 pm on Feb. 22, 2007)
Hi Dave,<br>I did consider Iffy in my VDW platform and it was an each-way chance along with Kickahead and Nikola:
Iffy – up 16lbs, 3rd of 9 -10.5 lengths, chased, no impression, weakened. Some chance here.
Nowdays I have price as the most critical factor taking RPR as my source of expert opinon. I support runners at RPR odds to return 100 where shorter than the market – meaning I make a killing if the market odds are greater than the RPR opinion. <br>I only consider non-hcaps with smallish fields owing to the fact that ratings tend to be tight in hcaps. However, the 4 o’clock race today would have been great:
Headings – Cloth No, RPR, RPR odds, stake, SP.
1 136 5/1 16pts 5/6 no bet<br>2 132 15/2 11pts 33/1 lost Lord Baskerville<br>3 132 15/2 11pts 15/2 lost Iffy<br>4 133 7/1  12pts 33/1 lost Nikola<br>5 136 5/1  16pts 7/2 no bet<br>6 136 5/1  16pts 11/1 WON +176pts Kickahead<br>7 134 6/1  14pts 14/1 lost Rustler<br>8 122 100/1 (nothing over RPR 10/1 considered)
Hindsight is a wonderful thing and I could have made 128pts. On the downside if Ouninpohja had gone in I would have been down 64pts.
(Edited by Formath at 5:57 pm on Feb. 21, 2007)<br>
(Edited by Formath at 1:56 pm on Feb. 22, 2007)
…and I thought I was struggling yesterday<br>4.00 Ludlow<br>Ouninpohja (5/6 2nd) – up 8lbs, 3rd of 14 -11 lengths, effort, not quicken. Suited by the going.<br>Odds-on no bet<br>
(Edited by Formath at 5:11 pm on Feb. 21, 2007)
Struggling to find anything worth assessing on the cards today and these two races are just to keep the pot boiling as we are at the start of a staking progression.<br>3.10 Taunton<br>Brave Villa (15/8 won) – down 2lbs, 4th of 12 -15.5 lengths, headed, stayed challenging, weakened, blundered. More suitable distance today. Stake 1 point won = +1.87, due 0, bank 183.44<br>Kayceecee (9/2 3rd) – down 2lbs, 2nd of 5 -4 lengths, held up, ent 2nd, found little. Needs to find more.
3.30 Southwell<br>Beldon Hill (7/4 lost) – up 15lbs? won 1st of 8 +5 lengths, chased, led, hung, driven clear. C&D hard to beat.<br>Stake 1 pt lost, due 2, bank 182.44<br>Jazrawy (3/1 won) – up 1lb, won 1st of 10 +shd, quickened, ridden, kept on gamely. Tougher but can’t be ruled out
(Edited by Formath at 5:52 pm on Feb. 20, 2007)
3.25 Market Rasen<br>Ice Melted (7/4 2nd) – up 5lbs, 2nd of 8 -14 lengths, chased winner, no impression, no chance. Progressive over fences, this brings him into contention. Stake 2 points lost, due 5, bank 173.32<br>Character Building (7/4 won) – up 26lbs? 4th of 10 -12 lengths, ridden, weakened, held, hampered last. Improver over fences and could go well.<br>Birdwatch (10/1) – down 24 lbs, rallied, every chance, one-paced. Potentially well treated.
4.10 Market Rasen<br>Loulou Nivernais (11/4 won) – down 3lbs, won 1st of 9 +nk, headway, challenged, stayed on to lead. On a hat-trick but facing better quality opposition. <br>Stake 3 points won = +8.25, due 0, bank 181.57<br>Spring Lover (9/2) – same weight, 3rd of 13 -3.25 lengths, ridden, every chance, no extra. Going may not suit and others may be too good.<br>Nonantais (6/1)- same weight, won 1st of 8 +.5 of a length, chased, led, headed, led, ridden, rallied. Likely to make presence felt.<br>It’s Bertie (9/4) – down 5lbs, 4th of 8 -13.5 lengths, ridden, one-paced. Of interest.
(Edited by Formath at 4:57 pm on Feb. 19, 2007)
I have been using ’tissues’ to compare with market odds since 1978. A tissue is just the opinion of the compiler and has no other merit than that, no different than a private handicap but expressed as prices. You can either compile your own or use one of the commercial services. I tend to use RPR these days as it is free, incorporates foreign form and seems to be as good as any.
I only consider non-hcaps with not too many runners and those runners where the RPR tissue price is no greater than 10/1 (outside that I don’t believe anybody knows what the odds really are). Several runners can be backed if the odds are viable, coupled to obtain a return of 100 points. Selections are supported at their tissue odds and not market odds.<br>The best thing to do is cherry-pick a good example the 2.10 Navan today:<br>  RPR<br>1 140  11/2 15pts SP 3/1 No bet<br>2 138  8/1  11pts SP 11/2 No bet<br>3 143  4/1  20pts SP 13/2 Bet lost = -20 pts Justpourit<br>4 151  7/4  36pts SP 11/8 No bet<br>5 133  50/1 (not considered over 10/1)<br>6 140  11/2  15pts SP 10/1 Bet Won = Return 165 pts Young Deperado
That’s how I currently employ RPR as a tissue using a simple arithmetical calculation changing the ratings into percentages, then into fractional odds and finally the points to return 100. I should add that if the points/price of the viable selections total more than about 80 points that race is eliminated as a betting <br>medium.<br>Nearly forgot, there is a problem with this system if not more than about three-quarters of the field have a rating as it skews the odds.
(Edited by Formath at 9:05 pm on Feb. 18, 2007)
I have been using ’tissues’ to compare with market odds since 1978. A tissue is just the opinion of the compiler and has no other merit than that, no different than a private handicap but expressed as prices. You can either compile your own or use one of the commercial services. I tend to use RPR these days as it is free, incorporates foreign form and seems to be as good as any.
I only consider non-hcaps with not too many runners and those runners where the RPR tissue price is no greater than 10/1 (outside that I don’t believe anybody knows what the odds really are). Several runners can be backed if the odds are viable, coupled to obtain a return of 100 points. Selections are supported at their tissue odds and not market odds.<br>The best thing to do is cherry-pick a good example the 2.10 Navan today:<br>  RPR<br>1 140  11/2 15pts SP 3/1 No bet<br>2 138  8/1  11pts SP 11/2 No bet<br>3 143  4/1  20pts SP 13/2 Bet lost = -20 pts Justpourit<br>4 151  7/4  36pts SP 11/8 No bet<br>5 133  50/1 (not considered over 10/1)<br>6 140  11/2  15pts SP 10/1 Bet Won = Return 165 pts Young Deperado
That’s how I currently employ RPR as a tissue using a simple arithmetical calculation changing the ratings into percentages, then into fractional odds and finally the points to return 100. I should add that if the points/price of the viable selections total more than about 80 points that race is eliminated as a betting <br>medium.<br>Nearly forgot, there is a problem with this system if not more than about three-quarters of the field have a rating as it skews the odds.
(Edited by Formath at 9:05 pm on Feb. 18, 2007)
2.30 Fontwell<br>Turko (10/11 won) – up 2lbs, 2nd of 5 -17 lengths, not fluent, effort, blundered, faded. Has the class but going may not suit. Odds-on no bet<br>Garde Champetre (Non-runner) – same weight, 2nd of 5 -6 lengths, chased, effort, kept on same pace. Disappointing and not rock solid.<br>Phar Bleu (8/1 2nd) – same weight, 2nd of 4 -23 lengths, hit 5th, led, headed, no chance with winner. Vulnerable to anything of quality.<br>Just for interest the straight forecast paid £7.99
(Edited by Formath at 4:55 pm on Feb. 18, 2007)
