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dear formath at what piont do you become concerned with weight do you have a cut of say 9lbs
Class Tells, <br>For me dealing with weight means any increase over 7lbs is questionable if a horse has not run well with the weight or heavier before. Over a stone poses a serious question.<br>Many punters disregard the effect of weight now but I don’t support that view.
dear formath would you say that if your selection does,nt appear in the first three in the handicap or top speed part of the selection proceedure it maybe badly handicaped i know we were beaten today by zimbabwe but i would like to know how often a horse can defy a 19lbs rise is there any records
Class Tells,<br>IMO weight carried has to be taken in context of the form of overall runners in a race as well as the individual weight carrying capabilty. I don’t have any research figures except that I go along with the view of Prof. Frank George from the late 70’s. He found that any NH runner carrying over 11st-3lbs was carrying a ‘burden’. The weight for the Flat is over 8st-7lbs.
3.10 Kelso<br>Numero Un De Solzen (2/1 3rd) – down 3lbs, won 1st of 5 +7 lengths, 5 lengths down, staying on no impression, when left in lead. Progressive and on handy mark for handicap debut. Stake 7 points lost, due 35, bank 131.87.<br>Mel In Blue (6/1) – up 19lbs? won 1st of 8 +2.5 lengths, headway, led, blundererd, ridden, stayed on. Not badly treated on previous form.<br>Ransboro – (11/2) up 25lbs? 4th of 5 -14 lengths, mistake, challenged, weakened. 6 time winner in Ireland and jockey booking of note.<br>Getinbutonlyjust (13/2 2nd) – down 20lbs, won 1st of 8 +8 lengths, led, left clear, tired, kept up to mark. Improving chaser said to need time between races.
3.50 Chepstow<br>Milan Deux Mille (7/2 3rd) – up 3lbs, won 1st of 8 +1.25 lengths, jumped badly left, headed, led, held on well. Up in class but left-hand track should suit. Stake 8 points lost, due 44, bank 123.87<br>Kalca Mome (10/1 2nd) – up 12lbs, 8th of 12 -23 lengths, blundered, struggling, kept on. Weight is the concern.<br>Nozic – (7/2 won) up 17lbs? 2nd of 7 -7lengths, blundered, headed, pressed winner, outpaced. Increased weight and jumping ability are concerns.
(Edited by Formath at 5:58 pm on Feb. 15, 2007)
alan c did you write the book pro,s and con,s have been on holiday this week and reading over my vdw with pro,s and con,s with close encounters of the vdw kind getting my attention with 12 races up for grabs hope to use the scatter gun approach on saturday with these two books
Class Tells,
It is a fact that I wrote the booklet you mentioned. I don’t have a copy now but I remember that there were some printers errors that were never corrected, to do with calculating fair odds from ratings was one.
far be it for me to advise anyone how to risk their capital but when I have a losing run I check the selection procedure to try and identify if there is anything that ought to be done differently, rather than increasing the number of bets. As an example take this thread where the problem seems to be forcing the issue, by having a couple of selections each day when there should really be just 2 or 3 each week.
formath i would like to explain my type of betting not unlike a great deal of people in the country i only back saturdays and big meetings i work shifts so buy my weekender and try and give myself a little edge for my saturday vdw has helped rating fields ect so i would like togroup together all the big races on saturday and back them using the list of probability in pros and cons, consistencey 1+2 and the close encounters of the vdw kind in a type of system it maybe interesting to see how many i can get out of ten it will cost me 63£ to find out have put this kind of bet on before have had 7 and 8 out of 10 but the usual is 4 or 5 post them up on saturday morning it,s good to talk to you alan thanks
formath if vdw were writing today do you think he would have moved on from his way of working out his class ratings it can be informative and at other times confusing and a hinderence what is your thoughts
Class Tells,<br>If we could could find a method to calculate class accurately in a single figure I think we would be on to a winner. <br>I can’t answer for VDW except to say I am certain he would have taken into account the vastly improved, easily available racing information. He recognized the shortcomings of his £ Class calculation and I quote from a letter/article to SCHB sports forum dated May 29, 1980:
"A simple way to rate the field on ability is to rate is to relate the prize money won to the number of races won… For obvious reasons this is not foolproof , but at least it enables a better judgement to be made and usually it is unwise to stray from the top few…With minor modifications the method of rating can be applied to Flat racing, but I must again stress ratings are a guide and should be used in conjunction with other factors. This method does not evaluate the ability of any horse that has not won, but there are ways of doing so which should be used in conjunction."
Everybody struggles with class, they know what it is, where it can be found, but refining the information to a figure to be able to make sensible comparisons is the difficult bit.
(Edited by Formath at 12:28 pm on Feb. 16, 2007)
2.25 Fakenham<br>Iris Raptor – (11/4 won) up 13lbs? 7th of 9 -72 lengths, blundered, soon headed, weakened, tailed off. Plausibly handicapped. Has won with 11-4 and claimer takes 5lbs off. <br>Stake 9 points won = +24.75, due 21, bank 148.62<br> Mokum – (6/1 2nd) down 24lbs, 3rd of 10 -3.25 lengths, chased, jumped left, stayed on same pace. Not proven over the distance?<br>Schuh Shine (4/1 3rd) – up8lbs, won 1st of 9 +1.75 lengths, led, ridden, finished tired, all out. Handicapped to best here.<br>Just for interest the straight forecast paid £18.24<br>2.35 Kelso<br>Tarotino (11/4 won) – up 5lbs, won 1st of 5 +2.5 lengths, headway, ridden, led, ran on. Some concern about getting the distance. Stake 10 points won = +27.5, due 0, bank +176.32<br>Apollo Lady (11/4 2nd) – up 4lbs, won 1st of 17 +9 lengths, headway, challenged, left in lead, ran on. Step up in trip looks suitable.<br>Just for interest the straight forecast paid £10.56
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(Edited by Formath at 4:24 pm on Feb. 16, 2007)
Formath<br>Was’nt there something writen about the course class aswell in refining the rating for class at a later date.<br>not sure about it though
have fun
yes it said in pro,s and con,s rate every horse for ability according to where it last ran n.o3 in list on appling method on a daily basis
As far as class is concerned, the RP ratings are an excellent starting point. The RPR franked by a TS which is within 7lbs is a reliable indicator, but perhaps cannot tell the whole story. A horse can achieve decent ratings at a certain level, yet be unable to produce that form if it is moved up in grade. I think that a horse must have produced its rating in the same class that it runs in today and that form should not be too old(within the last year).
If I were to assign some value to this using my own ratings method, I would award an extra 3 points for class if a horse had won in a similar grade in its last race, 2pts for a win in similar grade in the last 12 months, and 1pt if the horse was placed last time in a similar grade.
I dont like the RP stuff Artemis, I think its too well known and over used, a unique indicator could be better.
This is one that I use from time to time to calculate class/ability using a horses average performance over the last 12 months.
This worked to a certain degree .. <br>For each race <br>Work out what percentage of the field the horse beat .. <br>(1 – (fin pos / no. of runners)
So, a horse finishing 2 out of 8;<br>1-(2/8) = 0.75
.. multiply this by the race value. And then average all of the scores for the races that the horse has run over the last 12 months.
This is a very good indicator on the AW right now.
The draw back with this technique is that horses that have not had many runs or no recent runs can skew the ratings. The best races for applying this are those with a low standard deviation, bearing in mind that a horse with an average finishing position should be scoring 0.5 (or 1/2) .. if you wanted to compare this to todays prize money simply multiply the end rating by 2.
class tells .. I believe that you are talking about course grades. This is similar to the Solidus approach, that was mentioned earlier in this thread. The Solidus approach, handicaps races based on the comparitive times .. slow races are given lower basic ratings, as opposed to class pars. Course grades ranks races based on where they were run .. I think there is some mileage in this approach ..
Formath .. I have been a VDW fan for years, the last 20, almost and I am pretty well convinced that backing more than one horse in a race is the correct approach. I think strike rates of 60%+ can only be achieved doing this, what do you think ?
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