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Thursday 28th December

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  • #2456
    • Total Posts 669

    3.30 Leicester 2m H/C Hdle -125  £9,394

    Surprising that RP install La Grande Villez at 5/2 fav. Spotlight probably thinks so too as he naps Dhehdaah who should be fav IMHO. I think 11st11 is plenty on his back, though,  so I am chancing V Williams’ 8yo Sarin (Sam Thomas) can handle a step back to 2miles on this surface. A bit flimsy perhaps but did seem to get into a Straw Bear benefit on soft at Folkestone on his third over hurdles last January.

    1st   4   Nikola (FR)   10/1   <br>2nd   2   Dhehdaah   5/2 Fav  <br>3rd   1   Magic Sky (FR)   28/1  <br>11 Ran  

    6 3/4 L 4th :(

    <br>The new year’s resolution is to incorporate all Swallow’s tips into my staking. Another fine second today, SC!

    (Edited by zilzal at 4:12 pm on Dec. 28, 2006)<br>

    (Edited by zilzal at 10:37 pm on Dec. 28, 2006)

    Jim JTSJim JTS
    • Total Posts 841

    I like the chances of FIGARO FLYER (5.20 Wolverhampton) especially if they set out in an attempt to make all (runs best this way), last time at Kempton over 6f he came from the clouds and was only beaten three quarters of a length at the line, that race has shown he’s in fine fettle and if he jumps out from stall 9 he’ll take some pegging back. I’ll be having a saver on City For Conquest too and a reverse f/c.

    RESULT :- Figaro Flyer 4th 2/1 (from 3/1) beaten just over a length,

    Racing post close-up :- midfield, headway over 3f out, ridden over 1f out, chased winner inside final furlong until no extra close home.

    :point: I was disappointed by the ride Mongan gave it but that’s racing

    Good luck whatever you back! ;) <br>

    (Edited by Jim JTS at 11:43 pm on Dec. 28, 2006)

    • Total Posts 1008

    Pevensey is odds on favorite for the 1:50 at Catt’k but may have been flattered by finishing runner up to Corran Ard and was inconsistent on the flat so I prefer to bet e/way on Royal Flynn who put up an encouraging performance on his hurdling debut recently & the form of that race may turn out to be quite good. Backed e/way at 12/1.

    • Total Posts 1451

    Zilzal,<br>IMO the Lei 3.30 is a very difficult betting race with not much advantage to punters.<br>I have a simple mathematical calculation for identifying odds from ratings, which will indicate what RPR believes fair odds would be. In this race its difficult as the ratings are close. I compile my own ratings by filtering runners through up to 8 critical factors and then score them to calculate my own independent tissue. This is what I have for the Lei 3.30:<br>Blackthorn 11/2. 2nd ridden to lead, hung, headed near finish. has demamnding task here.<br>Dhehdaah 6/1. 4th, hit 4 out, driven, one pace. Could be thereabouts.<br>La Grande Villez 6/1. Won, 3lengths ahead, mistake last, stayed on. Yard in form.<br>Sonnengold 6/1. 6th, tailed off. Disappointing.<br>Prime Contender 9/1. 9th, unable to challenge. Of minor interest.<br>Not very enlightening I know,except maybe to put you off.<br>(If anyone would like a copy of the calculation written about please email me)

    • Total Posts 1451

    Just very qickly I have assessed the  Lei 1.30 and priced it up if it is of any interest:

    Copper Bay 13/8<br>Salhood 9/2<br>Desert Secrets 9/2<br>Ballyrainey 11/2

    • Total Posts 2754

    SION HILL [3.40]

    Wont get a much worse race than this but the Jockey booking of Tudhope suggests to me this horse will go close today.

    £2.50 E/W @ 6.5 [VC Bet]<br>

    • Total Posts 1008

    Zilzal  —  Thanks for the compliment but Lady Luck will probably not stay with me much longer – women always leave me after a few weeks:(  

    • Total Posts 1451

    Just to highlight the principles from my previous post here are the ‘fair’odds for the Newbury 2.40, Dec 29, calculated from RPR and Adrian Massey:<br>No<br>2 153 100/30 (5/1)Kanpai<br>7 144 9/2 (11/2)Wichita Lineman<br>3 141 11/2 (13/2)Massini’s Maguire<br>6 141 11/2 (11/2)Sir Jimmy Shand<br>4 139 6/1 (11/2)Roll Along<br>5 130 12/1 (7/1)<br>1 127 16/1 (1000/1)<br>8 120 150/1 (17/2)

    NB:The prices in paranthesis are from Adrian Massey ratings.

    Finally here is my independent tissue from my own ratings:<br>Kanpai 2/1. Won, ran on gamely to lead. Not so impressive<br>Sir Jimmy Shand 11/2. Won, forged clear, comf. Stiffer task<br>Roll Along 11/2. Won, led, riiden right out. Bright prospect.<br>Rothbury 6/1. Won, stayed on well, edged left, driven out. Lot more required here.<br>Wichita Lineman 17/2. 2nd chsed winner, stayed on. Should be more to come.<br>Massini’s Maguire 10/1. UR, blundered. Needs more here.<br>Mossville 66/1<br>Battle Cry (no odds, no rating)


    (Edited by Formath at 8:01 pm on Dec. 28, 2006)

    • Total Posts 8783

    Good to see you back Formath!

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