[Formath]

Oasis,
I would agree that if anyone is assessing form a rating figure to pull it all together is essential. I have an old RacingSystemBuilder free e-book (anyone is welcome to a copy if they PM me with an email address) and this is their summary:

Summary
We’ve set out in this book a series of steps you will need to take in order to make enough money from betting to make it your livelihood, or an important part of your overall investment strategy. These steps are:

1.) Get yourself a systematic way of selecting horses to back. RSB is essential.
2.) Subscribe to RSBcall daily to gain access to the most advanced ratings in the racing world. Ratings which are essential in order to identify the value bet.3.) Either follow these ratings blindly, or in combination with simple system rules devised with RSB.
4.) If you think you can improve on these ratings systems devised with RSB, confine yourself to things which are not already accounted for in them. A sophisticated knowledge of equine and trainer quirks, for example, or a comprehensive approach to racing intelligence.5.) Acquire a betting bank, large enough to sustain a realistic professional betting campaign.
6.) Never strike a bet which appears bad value.
7.) Employ a sophisticated optimised staking plan.
8.) Try to beat the SP, and check how you’re doing by keeping detailed records.
9.) Don’t be discouraged by the long losing run. Every gambler has to cope with this.
10.) Keep in touch with us. We will be developing ever more sophisticated weapons for the professionally minded punter in the years to come.

I am sticking with the actual betting market as my top criterion and reducing the field with Fineform. The bet is coupling up to three runners in a race shortest odds 2/1 with a one point level stake on each runner. I will paper trade here and may even try a small progression of staking 1, 2, 3 when there are losses.

I opted for Plumpton today owing to the forecast heavy going at Ayr.

1.10 (infineform trainers are 2, 7, 8 )
Montbazo
Edlomond
Victor Leudorum
1.40 (3.1)
Knock Boy
Whitcombe Spirit
2.10 (2, 5, 4)
Akidieau
Ruling Party
Seedsman
2.45 (1, 7, 5)
Bring It On Home
Blue Lovell
Ballinhassig
3.15 (2, 5, =3&6)
Storm Survivor
Go Amwell
Deep Pockets
3.50 ( 10 , 7, 1)
Just Beware
Wheres Johnny
Marju King
4.20 (9, 5, 1)
Tidal Dance
Dunlough Bay
Bamboleo

[Formath]

Oasis,
Thank you for the response – I hate chatting to myself .
I understand about doing detailed analysis but I am just being idle and attempting to circumvent the work involved by mainly following the actual betting market. In fact this extract probably more or less encapsulates the idea:

The following is a direct quote from a book ‘Come Fly With the Butterfly’ by John Mort Green, an old-time betting pro. The advice is still relevant now and can be recommended, particularly to inexperienced punters:

1. Never be greedy.
2. Never look at anything other than the best class horses,trainers and jockeys.
3. Forget those dreams of 100/1 winners and be content with horses in strong demand in the market.
4. Stop as soon as you are showing a profit on the day.
5. Back unpopular riders on the Tote.
6. Watch for eleventh hour jockey changes.
7. Follow money from big betting stables.
8. Learn to think the same way as trainers and jockeys.
9. Always get value by trying to beat the book.
10. Never lose confidence because you have lost everything else.

The professional punter must always ensure that he is getting value. Gambling on horses is all a question of buying and selling. The punter must be like the man on the Stock Exchange, knowing exactly when to strike a transaction to secure the best bargain.

As to the Fine Form Master Formula I use it to reduce the field to several runners more or less as it is given except that I use the three free Timeform selections instead of the first 3 in the betting forecast. Not much left today but the Ffos Las 4.00 looks like this:

Ffos Las 4.00
1. 15 Normally
2. 3
3. 8 Backstreet Billy
4. 2
5. 7 Turbulance
6. 6
7. 0

[Formath]

As I cannot pursuade any dialogue on this approach it is going into suspended animation

[Formath]

Where are we today? Perhaps a few remarks regarding my opinion on staking. Of the three elements that go into making a bet, selection, odds and staking, I find that phsycholgically staking is the most difficult. The reason being that by temperament I can’t abide losing, which means that if I don’t win at least I try not to lose too much. It means employing such devices as coupled odds, each-way, place only, a saver or savers, hedging etc. My preference is for coupled odds providing the odds available are sufficient.

I have moved away from trainers today and have opted for another ‘simple’ system attempting to reduce the work involved and have used Clive Holt’s Finefom Master Formula to identify selections (for the uninitiated the Formula rates any race by the betting forecast, current season recent form, C&D winners, and a handicap rating). In my case I am seeking coupled odds for up to 3 runners in the 2/1 – 10/1 range and not just the top-rated. Maximum rating score is 20:

Huntingdon (just the two best class races)

2.40 (just for interest the form trainers are No’s 3, 4, 1)
3. Supreme De Paille 13
4. Clash Duff 10
1. Court Red Handed 9

3.10 (form trainers are No’s 5, 2, 1) I find that hcap hurdle races are the most difficult to assess over the jumps.

1. Benny Be Good 9
5. Dorset Square 11
11 Rose Of The Moon 14

This is not an ego trip for me as I have been following UK racing for over 60 years now so am rather old-fashioned but I would welcome comments from anyone. In fact you can contact me
Jackform at aol.com if you would prefer to have a one-to-one private discussion

[Formath]

What possible advantage could this approach possibly provide over analysing past performance and relating it to the conditions of the forthcoming race
For myself it means avoiding a lot of time and effort checkig such variables as track grade, track configuration, weight allocation, times, recent form, overall form, diatnce, going, jockey, gamesnanship

Warwick
1.25 Fire Fighter, Shalloon
1.55 Queq’Un Comme Toi, Inga Bird
2.25 Godsmejudge
2.55 Pacha Du Polder
3.25 Ockey De Neulliac
3.55 Sizing America
4.25 Key To The West, Whisky Yankee

[Formath]

Right! It’s back to square one today with this paper trial as adding filters and other mods does not seem to improve matters. So I am just concerned with trainer form when there is confidence in the short odds end of the market. With no interest in anything shorter than 2/1 or longer than 10/1.

Musselburgh
2.40 Absinthe, Ingleby Spirit
3.10 Embsay Crag, Beidh Time Anseo
3.40 Red Tanber, Oscar Hill
4.10 Flaming Arrow, Spring Lane

[Formath]

Attempting to get better consistency I have opted for the better class races today.

Leicester
2.40 Tempest River
3.40 Plum Pudding
Southwell
2.50 Even Stevens, Cadeaux Pearl
Kempton
4.30 Reachforthebucks

[Formath]

Wetherby
1.15
Gottany O’s 11/4
Blue Destination 10/3

I put the 1.15 up earlier as I am late today, but I wish I hadn’t bothered now . Monday racing can be difficult for punter’s as lower class horse form can be inconsistent. Anyway keeping on with my market/trainer approach here is the remainder of the Wetherby card. I am toying with including timeas a class filter test the effect on results .

Wetherby (prices were noted at about 1300)
1.45
Tooman lane 6/1
Mansonien 10/1
2.15
Mission Complete 9/4
Code Blue 11/4
2.45
Cucumber 11/8
Mac Aeda 5/4
3.15
Ashbrittle 4/5
Info Wain 13/8
3.45
Hopeful Start 6/4
4.15
Orlittlebylittle 7/2
Fair Spin 5/1

Your comments for or against regarding this approach to betting would be more than welcome

[Formath]

Yesterday proved to be a good example of the approach described; namely to consider the market alongside trainers in form. However, yesterday was a top-grade course and today I have dropped down to a mid-grade course and it could be different again. One change is that there are not so many qualifiers.

Market Rasen (Prices noted about 12.45)

1.30
Bar de Ligne 11/8
2.00
Ballintubber Cross 3/1
3.05
Mic’s Delight 8/15

[Formath]

Bobform, are you still keeping tabs ,

Another year gone by since my last post here and it seems like yesterday. The old mechanical procedure can still point the way I find, even in lower grade races such as this:

Newbury 3.05

1. 5* Viable
2. 6* Goring One – 1 point stake,say a quid, bank £200
3. 4* Morestead
4. 1*
5. 2*
6. 3*

[Formath]

If you consider Zoowraa to be nailed on this post is largely a waste of time unless you are a gambler – these are fillies of course.

Checked the form as per VDW, stats by infineform and priced the Topspeed ratings.

Column headings = Race cloth No., Topspeed minimum odds required, (Betfair market at noon), minimum odds required following stats.

Leicester 4.10

1. 0* 4.1 (18.5) 12/1

2. 3* 400/1 (18.5) 150/1

3. n/r

4. 5* 7/2 (5/9) 9/1 Metropolitan Miss – is this the one to beat the hotpot?

5. 1* 9/2 (9) 4/1

6. 2* 5/1 (15.5) 3/1 (Suroor/Mullen 2nd best combo)

7. 5* 10/3 (1.78) 15/8 Zoowraa (Zarooni/de Sousa best combo) off track 140 days so not track fit but market indicates it’s not a problem.

[Formath]

Monday stuff and a class 3 sprint to contend with so back to VDW to ‘narrow the field’ and seeing as it is a sprint priced up via Topspeed opinion. Just for comparison and interest I have priced up he trainer/jockey/horse stats from the infineform site.

Salisbury 4.30

1. Topspeed 9/1 (current Betfair 15.5) infineform 10/1

2. 5/1 (4. 10/3 Mabait (Cumani/Fallon best combo) -appears short

3. 17/2 (13) 17/2

4. 20/1 (32) 15/2 (Zarooni/Murgla 3rd best combo)

5. 13/2 (6) 13/1 Inler – could be short, could be OK?

6. 6/1 (11) 14/1 Mon Cadeaux – my each-way shot at the odds

7. 25/1 (21) 14/1

8. 7/1 (3/1) 4/1 (Zarooni/Dettori 2nd best combo – and Dettori’s only ride, but off track 458 days?)

9. 7/1 (40) 33/1

10. 400/1 (1000/1) 400/1

[Formath]

Anorher cavalry charge to solve in the Goodwood 2.35
VDW max 5* and results priced to Topspeed’s opinion.

Goodwood 2.35

1. 2* (Candy/O’Neill best combo)
2. n/r
3. 0* (Varian/Callan 2nd best combo)
4. 2* 14/1 (Betfair 29) Star Rover – an each-way shot
5. 0* (Musson/Hughes 3rd best combo)
6. 0*
7. 0*
8. 1*
9. 0*
10. 0*
11. 2*
12. 3* 16/1 (8.4) Dickie’s Lad – Too short opposiyte the risk?
13. 1*
14. 4* 13/1 (11) Corporal Maddox – Too short at the odds?
15. 1*
16. 1*
17. 1*
18. 2* 13/1 (19.5)We Have A Dream – an each-way shot
19. 1*
20. 2*

In comparison Timeform go – Dickie’s Lad, Corporal Maddox, Tagula Night.

The Clive Holt master formula indicates – Tagula Night, Dickie’s Lad , Corporal Maddox

[Formath]

The Dewhurst (VDW max 5 stars*, price given is minimum RPR acceptable, Betfair odds in brackets).

1. *x*x* = 3* 9/2 (4.9) Bronterre – may not be fast enough?
2. *x*xx = 2* 14/1 (7.6)
3. xxxxx = 0* 25/1 (100/1)
4. ***xx = 3* 35/1 (9.2) Most Improved
5. xxxxx = 0* 13/2 12/1
6. ***** = 5* 7/2 (4.1) Power – looks a worthy favourite and not bad odds currently.
7. x*x** = 3* 11/2 (12.5) Red Duke – looks a fair each-way shot
8. *x*xx = 2* 100/1 (8.6)
9. xx*** = 3* 11/2 (14.5) Trumpet Major – another each-way shot.

In comparison Timeform goes – Bronterre, Power, Factory Time

Clive Holt Master Formula gives – Bronterre, Power, Ektihaam

[Formath]

York 3.05 a class 2 hcap over 8f on G/f with 18 runners – represents a challenge to the punter.

VDW
3* Circumvent – RPR odds 22/1 (Betfair 8.6) Cole/de Sousa best combo.
3* Barren Brook – 22/1 (7.8 ) – dropped 14lbs
3* Extraterrestrial – 12/1 (19) – an each-way shot?

Timeform – Barren Brook, Circumvent, Vainglory

Clive Holt master formula – Circumvent, Vainglory, Barren Brook

[Formath]

Bill, Bill -wherefore art thou?

Doesn’t look like festival of racing today – again . The Exeter 3.20 is about as good as it gets, a class 4 hcp chase over 3 miles on g/f.

Exeter 3.20 -RPR given as prices to achieve (current Betfair)

1. ***** 5* 13/2 (6)Cullahill – up 12lbs and AP has opted for Nostringsattached? (Buckler/Best 2nd best combo)

2. **x** 4*5/1 (8.2) Nostringsattached – is this an each-way shot?

3. *x*x* 3* 5/1 (8.4) Surfboard

4. *xxx* 2* 13/2 (9.8 ) Rifleman (Lee/Hawkins best combo)

5. ***x* 4* 13/2 (8.4) Breaking Silence

6. xx*xx 1* 150/1 (7)

7. xxx** 2* 5/1 (19)

8. *xxxx 1* 11/1(5.2) (Tizzard/Crosse 2nd best combo)

9. n/r

In comparison Clive Holt’s master formula goes – Justabout, Culahill, Rifleman.

[Formath]

Dear Bill

The old one’s are the best one’s and I should know

I opted for Div 2 of the 4.30 Nottingham handicap, because the consistency looks better and I have used VDW to sort them:

Nottingham 4.30 (VDW max 5* – stars allotted for first 6 in f/c, £class, consistency, Topspeed, RPR) (I priced the Topspeed ratings owing to the fact that RPR rates the field within 3lbs and I can’t get any definition):

1. xxxxx 0* Topspeed odds 15/1, (Betfair odds 21)

2. *xx** 3* 11/2 (10) McBirney – up 11lbs?

3. n/r

4. xxxx* 1* 125/1 (21)

5. xx*xx 1* 12/1 (15/1)

6. *x*x* 3* 10/1 (9/1) Landaman

7. ****x 4* 11/2 (3.25) Hunter Forward, Cumani/Fallon best trainer jockey combo. Maybe a tad short?

8. x*xxx 1* 17/2 (46) – Fielden/Quinn 2nd best combo.

9. ***** 5* 4/1(10) Area Fifty One – Muir/Dwyer 3rd best combo. Has to be an each-way shot at least.

10. *xxx* 2* 7/1 (13)

In comparison using the Clive Holt Master Formula the order of merit is – Hunter Forward, Area Fifty One, Landaman.

[Author]

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