In the Style of Van Der Wheil

[Formath]

Perth 3.50 (out of 4* for £class, consistency, ratings)
A degree of caution is required with this race IMO and probably best to swerve it altogether. I have already assessed it by form and came up with 3, 5, 4, which is at odds with the VDW selections. Not only that the Daily Mail Formcast only has 3lbs seaparting the field with the exception of No 9. My VDW order of mmerit 3, 1, 8:

1. 3* Songe
2. 2*
3. 3* Roudoudou
4. 2*
5. 3* Safari Adventure
6. 2*
7. 0*
8. 3* Tartan Snow
9. 0*
10. 2*

[Formath]

Perth a better than mid-grade card on good ground. Gordon Elliott is on fire and Twiston-Davies runners can be considered. My previous form assessment is not out of line with VDW today so may have a chance. My order of merit 2, 10, 4.

Perth 4.35 by 4* from £class, consistency and ratings.

1. 2*
2. 3* Keenan’s Future
3. 0*
4. 2* Lampion Du Bost
5. 1*
6. 2*
7. non-runner
8. 2*
9. 0*
10. 2* Petite Margot
11. 1*
12. 0*
13. 1*

[Formath]

2,000 Guineas

Frankel a racing certainty, home and hosed so I am patently wasting my time unless seeking an each-way claimer . As in my experience speed counts in high-grade races the known fast runners in order of merit are No’s 4, 2, 11, 8 they do of course have to be race fit both physically and mentally. My overall order of merit 4, 2, 9:

Newmarket 3.10 from 6* for £class, consistency, best speed, adjusted speed, Formcast, RPR.

1. 0*
2. 6* Casamento
3. 0*
4. 6* Frankel
5. 2*
6. 0*
7. 1*
8. 0*
9. 4* Pathfork
10. 0*
11. 2*
12. 0*
13. 0*

[Formath]

1,000 Guineas my order of merit 7, 15, 14

Newmarket 3.15 by 6 *
6. 3*
7. 5* Hooray
8. 2*
10. 1*
12. 2*
13.2*
14. 3* Misty For Me
15. 5* Moonlight Cloud
19. 1*

[Formath]

Punchestown 5.30 (my order of merit 5, 1, 4)

1. 4* Big Zeb
4. 4* Golden Silver
5. 4* Sizing Europa

Puncestown 6.40 (my order of merit 6, 8, 3)

3. 4* Loosen My Load
6. 4* Quito de la Roque
8. 4* Thegreatjohbrowne

[Formath]

Punchestown 5.30 (My order of merit 2, 3, 4)

2. 4* Kauto Star
3. 4* Kempes
4. 4* Nacarat

[Formath]

Punchestown 5.30 (by form in comparison to VDW* my order of merit 4, 3, 2)

2. Kauto Star
3. Kempes
4. Nacarat

[Formath]

Owing to a thunderstorm I am excused gardening this afternoon so I had a look at the listed stakes at Windsor this evening, the odds alas don’t look brilliant. The proven fast runners are No’s 1, 2, 4, which leaves the probable favourite Side glance some way behind, but as VDW advised speed is no good without form . My order of merit is 3, 6, 2.

Windsor 6.40 (out of 4* for £class, consistency, Formcast, RPR)

1. 1*
2. 3* Penitent
3. 4* Side Glance
4. 0*
5. 1*
6. 3* The Cheka
7. 0*

[Formath]

Tuesday racing and I should have known better with this Beverly 4.00 a class 4 4yo+ hcap over 8f+ on GF. Formcast rates the field within 2lbs and RPR 3lbs ’nuff said, everything in with a chance. My order of merit 7, 9, 3.

Beverly 4.00 (out of 4* for £class, consistency, Formcast, RPR)

1. 2*
2. 3*
3. 3*
4. 2*
5. 3* Aquarian Spirit
6. 3*
7. 4* Elijah Pepper
8. 3*
9. 3* Handsome Falcon

[Formath]

Dear Bill

The old one’s are the best one’s and I should know

I opted for Div 2 of the 4.30 Nottingham handicap, because the consistency looks better and I have used VDW to sort them:

Nottingham 4.30 (VDW max 5* – stars allotted for first 6 in f/c, £class, consistency, Topspeed, RPR) (I priced the Topspeed ratings owing to the fact that RPR rates the field within 3lbs and I can’t get any definition):

1. xxxxx 0* Topspeed odds 15/1, (Betfair odds 21)

2. *xx** 3* 11/2 (10) McBirney – up 11lbs?

3. n/r

4. xxxx* 1* 125/1 (21)

5. xx*xx 1* 12/1 (15/1)

6. *x*x* 3* 10/1 (9/1) Landaman

7. ****x 4* 11/2 (3.25) Hunter Forward, Cumani/Fallon best trainer jockey combo. Maybe a tad short?

8. x*xxx 1* 17/2 (46) – Fielden/Quinn 2nd best combo.

9. ***** 5* 4/1(10) Area Fifty One – Muir/Dwyer 3rd best combo. Has to be an each-way shot at least.

10. *xxx* 2* 7/1 (13)

In comparison using the Clive Holt Master Formula the order of merit is – Hunter Forward, Area Fifty One, Landaman.

[Formath]

Bill, Bill -wherefore art thou?

Doesn’t look like festival of racing today – again . The Exeter 3.20 is about as good as it gets, a class 4 hcp chase over 3 miles on g/f.

Exeter 3.20 -RPR given as prices to achieve (current Betfair)

1. ***** 5* 13/2 (6)Cullahill – up 12lbs and AP has opted for Nostringsattached? (Buckler/Best 2nd best combo)

2. **x** 4*5/1 (8.2) Nostringsattached – is this an each-way shot?

3. *x*x* 3* 5/1 (8.4) Surfboard

4. *xxx* 2* 13/2 (9.8 ) Rifleman (Lee/Hawkins best combo)

5. ***x* 4* 13/2 (8.4) Breaking Silence

6. xx*xx 1* 150/1 (7)

7. xxx** 2* 5/1 (19)

8. *xxxx 1* 11/1(5.2) (Tizzard/Crosse 2nd best combo)

9. n/r

In comparison Clive Holt’s master formula goes – Justabout, Culahill, Rifleman.

[Formath]

York 3.05 a class 2 hcap over 8f on G/f with 18 runners – represents a challenge to the punter.

VDW
3* Circumvent – RPR odds 22/1 (Betfair 8.6) Cole/de Sousa best combo.
3* Barren Brook – 22/1 (7.8 ) – dropped 14lbs
3* Extraterrestrial – 12/1 (19) – an each-way shot?

Timeform – Barren Brook, Circumvent, Vainglory

Clive Holt master formula – Circumvent, Vainglory, Barren Brook

[Formath]

The Dewhurst (VDW max 5 stars*, price given is minimum RPR acceptable, Betfair odds in brackets).

1. *x*x* = 3* 9/2 (4.9) Bronterre – may not be fast enough?
2. *x*xx = 2* 14/1 (7.6)
3. xxxxx = 0* 25/1 (100/1)
4. ***xx = 3* 35/1 (9.2) Most Improved
5. xxxxx = 0* 13/2 12/1
6. ***** = 5* 7/2 (4.1) Power – looks a worthy favourite and not bad odds currently.
7. x*x** = 3* 11/2 (12.5) Red Duke – looks a fair each-way shot
8. *x*xx = 2* 100/1 (8.6)
9. xx*** = 3* 11/2 (14.5) Trumpet Major – another each-way shot.

In comparison Timeform goes – Bronterre, Power, Factory Time

Clive Holt Master Formula gives – Bronterre, Power, Ektihaam

[Formath]

Anorher cavalry charge to solve in the Goodwood 2.35
VDW max 5* and results priced to Topspeed’s opinion.

Goodwood 2.35

1. 2* (Candy/O’Neill best combo)
2. n/r
3. 0* (Varian/Callan 2nd best combo)
4. 2* 14/1 (Betfair 29) Star Rover – an each-way shot
5. 0* (Musson/Hughes 3rd best combo)
6. 0*
7. 0*
8. 1*
9. 0*
10. 0*
11. 2*
12. 3* 16/1 (8.4) Dickie’s Lad – Too short opposiyte the risk?
13. 1*
14. 4* 13/1 (11) Corporal Maddox – Too short at the odds?
15. 1*
16. 1*
17. 1*
18. 2* 13/1 (19.5)We Have A Dream – an each-way shot
19. 1*
20. 2*

In comparison Timeform go – Dickie’s Lad, Corporal Maddox, Tagula Night.

The Clive Holt master formula indicates – Tagula Night, Dickie’s Lad , Corporal Maddox

[Formath]

Monday stuff and a class 3 sprint to contend with so back to VDW to ‘narrow the field’ and seeing as it is a sprint priced up via Topspeed opinion. Just for comparison and interest I have priced up he trainer/jockey/horse stats from the infineform site.

Salisbury 4.30

1. Topspeed 9/1 (current Betfair 15.5) infineform 10/1

2. 5/1 (4. 10/3 Mabait (Cumani/Fallon best combo) -appears short

3. 17/2 (13) 17/2

4. 20/1 (32) 15/2 (Zarooni/Murgla 3rd best combo)

5. 13/2 (6) 13/1 Inler – could be short, could be OK?

6. 6/1 (11) 14/1 Mon Cadeaux – my each-way shot at the odds

7. 25/1 (21) 14/1

8. 7/1 (3/1) 4/1 (Zarooni/Dettori 2nd best combo – and Dettori’s only ride, but off track 458 days?)

9. 7/1 (40) 33/1

10. 400/1 (1000/1) 400/1

[Formath]

If you consider Zoowraa to be nailed on this post is largely a waste of time unless you are a gambler – these are fillies of course.

Checked the form as per VDW, stats by infineform and priced the Topspeed ratings.

Column headings = Race cloth No., Topspeed minimum odds required, (Betfair market at noon), minimum odds required following stats.

Leicester 4.10

1. 0* 4.1 (18.5) 12/1

2. 3* 400/1 (18.5) 150/1

3. n/r

4. 5* 7/2 (5/9) 9/1 Metropolitan Miss – is this the one to beat the hotpot?

5. 1* 9/2 (9) 4/1

6. 2* 5/1 (15.5) 3/1 (Suroor/Mullen 2nd best combo)

7. 5* 10/3 (1.78) 15/8 Zoowraa (Zarooni/de Sousa best combo) off track 140 days so not track fit but market indicates it’s not a problem.

[Formath]

Bobform, are you still keeping tabs ,

Another year gone by since my last post here and it seems like yesterday. The old mechanical procedure can still point the way I find, even in lower grade races such as this:

Newbury 3.05

1. 5* Viable
2. 6* Goring One – 1 point stake,say a quid, bank £200
3. 4* Morestead
4. 1*
5. 2*
6. 3*

[Author]

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