In the Style of Van Der Wheil

[Formath]

I considered the Doncaster nursey by time and selected Golden Blaze for time, distance and going. Then thought seeing as there is fair amount of winning form I will just compile a star chart for the VDW ‘elementary mechanical procedure’ and came up with a totally different result

VDW Chart
Doncaster 3.20 (X* rated by simple judgement values and the totals converted to 100% odds with possible 113% book tissue odds in brackets)

Column headingsfor X*: Cloth No, £ class, consistency 1, consistency 2, Formcast, RPR,*, RATING

1. XXXXXX 6* 9 4/1 (7/2) Mariachi Man
2. 000000 nil
3. 00000X 1*
4. XXXXXX 6* 14 95/40 (15/8) Namibian
5. XXXXXX 6* 13 5/2 (85/40) Humdrum
6. X0000X 2*
7. 00000X 1*
8. X0000X 2*

[Formath]

This is rather off topic compared with yesterdays entry but posted here as it comes from the same stable .

I have been thinking, which is always a dangerous thing. Many assessment strategies encompass similar factors in varied ways so why not work to a consensus of a few of the more respected practitioners? In my case I have blended the ideas of Van Der Wheil, Clive Holt and Professor Frank George. I charted each race by filtering through the short odds end of the market, consistency, course, distance and handicap ratings. Then I obtained my own rating by applying simple judgement values, finally converting the rating into a fair price 100% tissue. I’m thinking of naming it The Pheonix Blend System (rising from the ashes). Whether it has any merit remains to be seen.

Doncaster (odds shown are a guideline price)

1.55 3/1 Harry Patch, 15/2 Cheverton
2.25 11/4 Galtymore Lad, 9/2 Cape Rio, 11/2 Signs In The Sand
2.55 9/4 Casemento, 4/1 Dunboyne Exprees
3.30 5/2 Music Maestro, 3/1 Junket, 5/1 White Dart
4.05 No selections
4.40 11/2 Alazan, 13/2 Ella, 12/1 Classic Vintage, 12/1 Centennial
5.15 9/4 Unex El Greco, 9/2 Jaaryah

As an afterthought, why not employ the staking plan advised by VDW on a selection from each race down the card. Fairly risky on a long losing run.

STAKE/RESULT/WON/LOST/DEBIT/CREDIT
1…..Lost……..1…… 2
2…..Lost……..2…… 5
3…..Lost……..3…… 9
4…..Won 2/1..8……… 2
3…..Lost……..3…… 6
4…..Lost……..4……11
5…..Won 3/1…15……….0
Total………23…….13………10

Aim to win 1 point on each bet.
Stakes are increased by 1 point each bet until any debit is reduced to zero. However, note that stakes should not exceed the debit by more than 1 point.
Any further losses are treated the same and added to the previous deficit. A winning bet has one point deducted (profit required). The resultant figure is deducted from the debit column. When debit reaches zero subtract Loss from Win and enter profit in Credit column. In this illustration, profit is 10 points.

[Formath]

I tabulated a chart platform for the two class 1 fillies races at Lingfield today and just came up with the two forecast favourites really.

Column headings: cloth No, *stars out of 6, my rating, my 100% tissue price.

Lingfield 3.10
1. 6* 16 5/6 Aspectoflove
3. 5* 8 4/1 Mosqueras Romance
10.4* 6 7/1 Lady Darshaan

Lingfield 3.40
1. 4* 12 95/40 Baila Me
2. 3* 3 13/1 Copperbeech
6. 4* 8 4/1 Rosika

[Formath]

Newmarket 3.00

6. 5* 15 5/4 Ragsah
7. 4* 5 7/1 Sharnberry
8. 4* 6 11/2 Sweet Cecily

[Formath]

My system appears to be on the blink and so slow it’s almost going backwards so this is the best I can do

Newmarket 4.20 according to VDW, which I have rated and priced up to 100%

1. 5* 12 9/4 Penitent
2. 4* 7 9/2 Kirklees
7. 6* 13 2/1 Timepiece

[Formath]

I doubt anyone takes a serious interest in the stuff posted on this thread so I am really just musing for my own satisfaction, that is unless anybody cares to comment?

Wolverhampton 8.50 a class 3 3yo+ hcap over 9.5f on standard, where I am not sure that basic VDW works as well on turf. The reason being that they compete against each other more often than on turf and you only need to look at the two ratings columns to see the difficulty the compilers have in separating them. However, I give most significance to consistency – then in descending order the betting forecast, the hcap ratings and finally win prize money, although I am still not totally certain this order is correct. In fact in the final analysis I pay a lot off attention to the prices, after all it is a betting market.

Column headings for X* – cloth No, forecast, £ class, consistency 1, consistency 2, Formcast, RPR, *, my rating, my 100% tissue price. (X* out of 6)

1. XXOOXO 3* 6 (8/1)
2. OOOOXO 1* 2
3. OXOOXX 3* 7 (13/2)
4. OXOOXO 2* 3
5. XOOOOX 2* 2
6. XOXXXX 5* 9 9/2 Akhmatova
7. XOXXXX 5* 14 95/40 Veiled Applause
8. XOXOXX 4* 4 14/1 Dylanesque
9. OOOOOX 1* 2
10. OOOXXX 3* 4
11. XOOOXX 3* 2

[Formath]

This race is just by way of a study , as I was so wide of the mark at Wolverhampton. Hopefully, on the polyester surface and with more winning form on the card it will be closer today.

Lingfield 3.20 (My ratings priced to 100%)

2. 6* 11 85/40 Countess Comet
3. 6* 13 6/4 Bahamian Music
7. 5* 9 10/3 Commerce

[emian]

PM sent

[Formath]

emian,

My email to contact me is Jackform at aol.com

Wolverhampton 4.30 a class 4 3yo+ hcap over 8.5f on standard polytrack with a smattering of winning form where Timeform go No’s 4, 5, 3 so are we in with a chance at last today? Not only that I checked the Super Fineform System and came up with No’s 4, 5, 3, 11.

VDW out of 6* with my ratings priced to a 100% tissue.

1. OXOOOX 2* 3
2. OOOOXO 1* 1
3. XOXXXX 5* 7 13/2 One Scoop Or Two
4. XXXXXO 5* 12 7/2 Glenridding
5. XOXXXX 5* 14 11/4 Willow Dancer
6. OXOOXX 3* 5
7. OXOOOX 2* 3
8. XOOOXX 3* 4
9. XOOOOO 1* 0
10. OOOOOX 1* 3
11. XOOOOX 2* 1

[Formath]

emian,

I received your mail but alas I don’t have skype as I am as deaf as a post . I do have a private chatroom tho’

Catterick 3.45 a 3yo+ hcap sprint over 7f on going forecast as mainly softer than good. It’s all change today as far as I am concerned back on turf, Timeform format, VDW advised adjustment for Flat turf races. VDW indicated an adjusted methodology for the Flat ‘platform’ and the headings were – last 3, ability, Time/merit, time rating, adjusted time rating. Mine will keep to the principle of time and the column headings are:

Timeform in comparison goes No’s 5, 2, 3.
Cloth No, betting forecast, consistency, class, best time, recent time, Massey rating, X*, my rating, my 100% tissue price
(X* out of 6*)

1. XOOOOO 1* 0
2. XXXOXX 5* 13 85/40 Cara’s Request
3. XXOOXX 4* 7 5/1 Solar Spirit
4. XXOOOO 2* 1
5. XXOOOO 2* 1
6. OOOXOO 1* 3
7. OOOOOO O* 0
8. Non-runner
9. OOXOOO 1* 3
10. XXXXOO 4* 7 5/1 Trans Sonic
11. OOOOOO O* 0
12. OXOOOO 1* 1
13. OOOXXX 3* 5
14. OOOOOO O* 0
15.OOOOOO O* 0

[Formath]

Anyone around to chat aboout this race I will be in my chatroom at 2pm http://PuntersRus.chatango.com
Nottingham 2.20 and the best UK mainland turf race on offer today and the question to ask is Caymans class enough? Timeform says so, and goes No’s 1, 6, 4. A class 2 3yo+ stakes over 8+f on going given as soft. I have assessed the race more or less according to the VDW adjusted methodology for the Flat turf. X* out of 6* and my ratings priced to 100%. Could be a disaster in the making.

1. XXOOOO 2*
2. OOOOOO 0*
3. OOXXXX 4* 8 10/3 Ours
4. XOOOXX 3* (5 10/1)
5. XOOOOO 1*
6. XXXXXX 6* 14 1/2 Sahara Kingdom
7. OOOOOO 0*
8. OOOOOO 0*
9. XXXXOO 4* 4 20/1 Sweet Child O’Mine

[Formath]

Kempton 19.05 a listed class 1 4yo+ stakes over 12f on polytrack. I did a VDW platform but didn’t get anywhere with it really. Timeform top-rate Mastery the 2009 leger winner as the one most likely but it looks too short and I’m not sure has the speed. My best was Classic Punch with 5* and Hanagan up but has not been a resolute runner in the past. Dansant comes in under the radar as realiable and being tried with headgear and is reasonable e.w. odds at 8.8. Perhaps one of Suroor’s three will make up for the poor showing in the Nottingham 2.20 this afternoon. The truth is I havn’t got a clue

[Formath]

Lingfield 1.20 a 3yo+ class 3 hcap over 7f on standard and nothing much in the way of consistency the major VDW factor. A VDW Flat adjusted platform from 6* and my ratings priced to am 100% tissue.

1. XXOOXX 4* 10 9/2 Street Poer
2. OOXXOO 2* 4
3. OOXOOO 1* 1
4. XXXOXX 5* 8 6/1 Woodcote Place
5. XXXXOO 4* 10 9/2 Seek The Fair Land
6. XXXOXX 5* 11 4/1 L’Hirondelle
7. XOXOOO 2* 3
8. Non-runner
9. OOXOOO 1* 3
10. XOOOXO 2* 4
11. OOOXOO 1* 1

[Formath]

Just resurrected this thread mainly because I feel too idle to compile a detailed form assessment for the race

Sandown 3.10 by my interpretation of the VDW ‘elementary mechanical procedure’ nothing more.

Headings – Cloth No then star * totals out of 4* for £Class, Consistency, Formcast, RPR

1. 1*
2. 0*
3. 1*
4. 1*
5. 0*
6. 4* Baby Run
7. 1*
8. 2*
9. 1*
10. 1*
11. 0*
12. 3* Triggerman
13. 2*
14. 1*
15. 0*
16. 1*
17. 2*
18. 1*

[Formath]

Sandown 3.50 and not a race VDW would possibly advise at this stage of the Flat as he indicated 4yo+ hcaps for a couple of months into the season, however it is about the best class on offer.
4 stars* max for £class, consistency and ratings with no further assessment:

1. 3* Auld Burns
4. 4* Dordogne
5. 1*
7. 1*
9. 3* Measuring Time
10. 1*

My personal order of merit = Dordogne, Auld Burns, Measuring time

[Formath]

I assessed the Irish Grand National but failed to arrive at any firm conclusion. From a valuation of four stars* 5, 17, 20 may be considered in that order from the short end of the market:

5. 2* Quantativeeasing
17. 2* Some Target
20. 2* Organisedconfusion

[Formath]

Ascot (from 4* for £class, consistency, ratings nothing more)
3.05 (my order of merit 7, 8, 40
4. 2* Eton Forever
7. 3* Side Glance
8. 2* Zacinto

3.40 (my order of merit 6, 5, 2)
2. 3* Akmal
5. 3* Free Agent
6. 4* Rajik

[Author]

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